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December 2013 Boards forecast contest

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    #32
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After 14 days,

    IMT on 8.4 C (will drift down now)

    PRC is at 59% after a more normal second week (97%)

    SUN is stuck at 60%.


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    #33
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After 21 days and more average sorts of temperatures ...

    IMT at 7.6 C

    PRC up to 110% after a week that reversed the trend at 211%

    SUN has fallen even further to 55% after a week near 45% of normal.

    There was even a sub-zero minimum around -1 to report, but I imagine that will be edged out eventually.

    From current model runs, would imagine IMT to finish in low to mid 6 range, losing about 0.2 a day on the colder days but holding steady on the milder days like tomorrow. PRC may not gain much more but could finish 120-130. SUN could gain a bit, any day with five hours of sunshine would probably be enough at this point.


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    #34
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 708 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Christmas Day temps for Dublin Airport:
    Max: 8.1
    Min: 0.7


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    #35
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thanks for posting those, from what I saw the min was at the last hour but the morning low was fairly close to that as well, in case you're wondering.

    I am inclined to cancel the three-point bonus for snow or no snow as being too close to call. Not aware of any specific hourly obs at a weather station saying snow, however Mullingar had "precipitation" at 23z with radar looking showery and temps low enough for snow. Also anecdotal reports of snow showers in one or two spots not just on high ground. Think it might just be best to say everyone right and cancel the three points. Thank this post if you agree, say otherwise if you don't agree, we have seven days to figure it out.


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    #36
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    IMT update is 7.0 C

    A min of -2.6 C was reported from Moorepark on 25th, not sure if that's going to be our monthly minimum or not.

    What's this I hear about a bit of a breeze?


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    #37
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Jpmarn, nilhg, talkabout and John mac appear to be the four closest to the actual temperatures for Dublin on the 25th and would likely get the ten points available there. I think now that I will go with the idea of cancelling the yes or no three point extra bonus as I have no real way of knowing whether Mullingar had snow or not and I suspect it did. Probably won't change the outcome of the month or the year if I do so.


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    #38
    dasa29
    Registered Users Posts: 549 ✭✭✭dasa29


    Mt I had a look out my door around 23:30 on the 25th and it looked more like a heavy fog did not see any snow.


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    #39
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 708 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Did you look out your door around 23:30 on the 24th, and did you see anything?


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    #40
    dasa29
    Registered Users Posts: 549 ✭✭✭dasa29


    I did and I think it was a clear sky.


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    #41
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 708 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Me too.
    Better luck next year!


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    #42
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Will post Jan 2014 contest on Sunday, waiting to get some info about the form -- the bonus question will be maximum wind gust in Ireland at a menu of coastal stations. If you want to enter cuz you think you might be away or somehow under the weather, PM me or post on here. Same questions as always otherwise.


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    #43
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After four weeks ...

    IMT had fallen off to 6.6

    PRC up again to 127% after the week with 177%

    SUN got some help from a weekly figure of 117% and is now at 74%

    I can't see these changing very much now.


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    #44
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Hey at the moment, I am not hearing back from Sponge Bob about form updates.

    Can somebody try an experiment for me? Go into the Dec entry form, look near the bottom of the page and find the tab for Jan 2014, click on that, and see if you find some column headers and my contest entry. Then place one of your own and post on here. I have editing ability on these forms but I am not sure how to make the current month come up as the entry form.

    Like I said, if anyone wants to enter Jan 2014 in order to enjoy away time (or oblivion) on 1, 2, 3 and ??? Jan then enter here, it's going to be max gust and location for the bonus. The normal IMT (1981-2010 avg) is 5.3 or so.


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    #45
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 708 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    MT, I can see your entry, but I cannot update the spreadsheet.
    Looks like we're back to 2012 technology!


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    #46
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I opened a Jan 2014 thread, hopefully will get the form figured out and make it like it has been -- note that everyone has an extra day before penalties start, take your time and enjoy the New Year festivities. Don't get too much blood in the alcohol stream. Etc etc.


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    #47
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    It seems that we now have the Jan 2014 forecast contest form up and running, will post the link in that thread.


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    #48
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    IMT finished on 6.7 (rounded from 6.66, a beast of a month).

    Will get at the scoring when the MS is published, perhaps later today or tomorrow as it seems to be here. :)

    Happy New Year.


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    #49
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Here's the complete report on December ...

    IMT was 6.7 C

    MAX was 15.2 C on the 12th at Finner and Malin Head

    MIN was --2.7 C on the 29th at Moorepark

    PRC was 150% of normal

    SUN was 80% of normal

    Dublin (A) max and min on 25th confirmed to be 8.1 and 0.7

    As discussed, will scrap the three point super-bonus for snowfall as under the rules we can't be sure of a result. There may have been a small amount of snow at one station and certainly scattered falls on higher ground but we'll see if the three points could make any difference to the outcome in about an hour or two. So, on to scoring. Please note, Jan 2014 contest thread open, no penalty until 0300h and 5% every 8h to catch up to the usual schedule.


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    #50
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Scoring for December

    Forecaster _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ Min,Max 25 __ TOTAL
    _______________________________________________________________

    Actual values ____ 6.7 _ 15.2 _ -2.7 _ 150 _ 080 _ 0.7 _ 8.1 ___

    Jpmarn ________ 18* _ 18*_ 16*__ 13*_ 09__ 10 _____ 84
    Pauldry ________ 23*_ 12*_ 04*__ 12*_ 09 __ 06 _____ 66
    Bsal ___________ 17 _ 00 _ 18*__ 09*_ 09 __ 09 _____ 62
    nilhg ___________15 _ 05*_ 15*__ 08*_ 09 __ 09 _____ 61
    omicron ________ 15 _ 01*_ 18*__ 10*_ 06 __ 08 _____ 58
    200motels ______ 15 _ 00 _ 13*__ 12*_ 08 __ 07 ______ 55
    Tae laidir _______ 16 _ 05*_ 11*__ 02*_ 07 __ 06 _____ 47
    cogsy __ (-10) ___20 _ 11* _ 11*__ 00 _ 08 __ 06 __ 56-10=46
    tracey.1 ________ 14 _ 08*_ 06*__ 03*_ 05 __ 08 ______ 44
    rameire _________14 _ 00 _ 09*__ 05*_ 08 __ 07 ______ 43
    seafields ________ 15 _ 14*_00 __ 03*_ 06 __ 05 ______ 43
    waterways ______ 11 _ 10*_ 00 __ 07*_ 06 __ 09 ______ 43
    kindredspirit (-10) .13 _ 01*_ 14*__ 09*_ 05 __ 09 __ 51-10=41

    Con Sensus _____ 13 _ 01*_ 05*__ 06*_ 06 __ 10 ______ 41

    DOCARCH _______10 _ 00 _ 08*__ 06*_ 08 __ 08 ______ 40
    John Mac _ (-10) _ 10 _ 05*_ 05*__ 11*_ 08 __ 10 __ 49-10=39
    gonzo __________ 16 _ 10*_ 00 __ 00 _ 07 __ 06 ______ 39
    talkabout _______ 12 _ 00 _ 00 __ 08*_ 08 __ 09 ______ 37
    Lumi ___________13 _ 00 _ 04*__ 04*_ 09 __ 05 ______ 35
    harps __________ 15 _ 06*_ 07*__ 00 _ 02 __ 05 ______ 35
    Rikand _________ 12 _ 00 _ 02*__ 10*_ 02 __ 07 ______ 33
    mickger844posts _ 08 _ 07*_ 04*__ 05*_ 04 __ 05 ______ 33
    okla ___________ 06 _ 16*_ 00 __ 06*_ 02 __ 03 ______ 33
    M.T. Cranium ____ 15 _ 13*_ 00 __ 00 _ 01 __ 01 ______ 30
    jd _____________ 09 _ 00 _ 00 __ 11*_ 06 __ 04 ______ 30
    dasa29 _________ 10 _ 00 _ 00 __ 08*_ 06 __ 05 ______ 29
    dacogawa _______ 09 _ 05*_ 00 __ 02*_ 04 __ 09 ______ 29
    gothwalk ________09 _ 00 _ 05*__ 06*_ 04 __ 02 ______ 26
    H2UMrsRob (-10) _12 _ 00 _ 13*__ 01*_ 04 __ 06 __ 36-10=26
    snowstreams ____ 06 _ 01*_ 02*__ 07*_ 02 __ 07 ______ 25
    Joe Public _______06 _ 00 _ 00 __ 07*_ 02 __ 08 _______ 23
    homolumo (-10) __01 _ 00 _ 00 __ 04*_ 08 __ 08 __ 21-10=11

    ____________________________________________________________

    * The minimum progression rule was needed to straighten out the slight lag in scoring on MAX, and the rather large shortfalls in scoring for MIN and PRC where the field was basically out to lunch. The bonus was scored by rounding off errors (e.g., 0.0 to 1.0 max error gave 5 pts, same for min, etc).

    Very little sorting was needed as the milder forecasts scored highest. So it's congrats to Jpmarn, Pauldry and Bsal for top three finishes in December. Now it's on to the annual scoring results. I hope to have those available by 8 p.m. your time, if the second cup of coffee kicks in here. :)


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    #51
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Updated Annual scoring report

    rank/
    best 10 _ Forecaster _______ J __ F __ M __ A __ M __ J __ J __ A __ S __ O __ N __ D __ Total


    01 608 Con Sensus _______75 _ 69 _ 24 _ 60 _ 54 _ 76 _ 44 _ 55 _ 58 _ 59 _ 54 _ 40 __ 668 (2)

    01 602 Tae laidir ________ 73 _ 68 _ 38 _ 59 _ 54 _ 55 _ 59 _ 47 _ 65 _ 75 _ 43 _ 47 __ 683 (1)
    02 579 harps ___________ 73 _ 61 _ 47 _ 48 _ 53 _ 70 _ 42 _ 57 _ 61 _ 67 _ 32 _ 35 __ 646 (2)
    03 566 kindredspirit ______66 _ 34 _ 55 _ 51 _ 42 _ 66 _ 51 _ 65 _ 60 _ 55 _ 55 _ 41 __ 641 (3)
    04 560 dasa29___________35 _ 76 _ 69 _ 61 _ 69 _ 68 _ 21 _ 42 _ 59 _ 31 _ 50 _ 29 __ 610 (5)
    05 557 omicron _________ 47 _ 49 _ 22 _ 50 _ 66 _ 67 _ --- _ 72 _ 45 _ 51 _ 52 _ 58 __ 579 (13)

    06 553 Bsal _____________54 _ 35 _ 53 _ 38 _ 73 _ 75 _ 38 _ 75 _ 37 _ 47 _ 38 _ 62 __ 625 (4)
    07 545 Pauldry __________59 _ 60 _ 34 _ 53 _ 51 _ 57 _ 32 _ 42 _ 51 _ 72 _ 14 _ 66 __ 591 (10t)
    08 541 jpmarn __________ 36 _ 47 _ 23 _ 35 _ 54 _ 59 _ 65 _ 36 _ 54 _ 61 _ 45 _ 84 __ 599 (6)
    08 541 traecy.1 _________ 79 _ 36 _ 21 _ 54 _ 29 _ 56 _ 50 _ 33 _ 60 _ 62 _ 67 _ 44 __ 591 (10t)
    10 527 DOCARCH________ 42 _ 50 _ 36 _ 73 _ 30 _ 70 _ 60 _ 39 _ 56 _ 60 _ 37 _ 40 __ 593 (8t)

    11 525 mickger844posts __ 35 _ 67 _ 40 _ 54 _ 37 _ 49 _ 66 _ 39 _ 60 _ 67 _ 46 _ 33 __ 593 (8t)
    12 524 Jerry Seinfeld_____ 69 _ 54 _ 45 _ 60 _ 52 _ 74 _ 24 _ 44 _ 59 _ 43 _ --- _ --- __ 524 (21)
    13 522 200motels________ 54 _ 61 _ 36 _ 52 _ 49 _ 25 _ 33 _ 46 _ 67 _ 58 _ 44 _ 55 __ 580 (12)
    14 521 rameire__________ 60 _ 29 _ 44 _42 _ 56 _ 80 _ 18 _ 65 _ 39 _ 47 _ 45 _ 43 __ 568 (15)
    14 521 John mac_________50 _ 23 _ 21 _ --- _ 64 _ 94 _ 31 _ 60 _ 50 _ 44 _ 65 _ 40 __ 542 (20)

    16 518 nilhg ____________44 _ 47 _ 41 _ 50 _ 44 _ 51 _ 76 _ 54 _ 37 _ 45 _ 46 _ 61 __ 596 (7)
    17 510 talkabout ________ 52 _ 58 _ 31 _ 44 _ 44 _ 67 _ 43 _ 43 _ 54 _ 30 _ 68 _ 37 __ 571 (14)
    18 500 Joe Public ________ 25 _ 58 _59 _ 35 _ 21 _ 44 _ 62 _ 55 _ 57 _ 49 _ 56 _ 23 __ 544 (19)
    19 499 homolumo _______ 69 _ 72 _ 40 _ 50 _ 31 _ 67 _ 27 _ 35 _ 73 _ 35 _ --- _ 11 __ 510 (22)
    20 496 Rikand __________ 41 _ 48 _ 18 _ 56 _ 45 _ 75 _ 38 _ 42 _ 48 _ 38 _ 65 _ 33 __ 547 (17t)

    21 490 dacogawa________ 51 _ 56 _ 35 _ 43 _ 38 _ 51 _ 40 _ 44 _ 76 _ 37 _ 54 _ 29 __ 554 (16)
    22 486 okla ____________ 52 _ 43 _ 47 _ 60 _ 45 _ 54 _ 38 _ 17 _ --- _ 69 _ 45 _ 33 __ 503 (23)
    22 486 M.T. Cranium _____ 34 _ 39 _ 31 _ 52 _ 47 _ 48 _ 52 _ 40 _ 55 _ 54 _ 65 _ 30 __ 547 (17t)
    24 480 waterways _______ 57 _ 70 _ 21 _ 45 _ 41 _ 43 _ 14 _ --- _ 73 _ 51 _ 36 _ 43 __ 494 (24)
    25 472 Strasser _________ 69 _ 38 _ 28 _ 54 _ -- _ 43 _ 28 _ 72 _ 38 _ 44 _ 58 _ --- __ 472 (28)

    26 464 jd ______________ 49 _ 67 _ 14 _ 46 _ 36 _ 56 _ 31 _ 47 _ 59 _ 43 _ -- _ 30 __ 478 (27)
    27 463 lostinashford _____ 27 _ 43 _ 29 _ 39 _ 58 _ 73 _ 50 _ 38 _ 57 _ 35 _ 41 _ --- __ 490 (25)
    28 444 Seafields ________ 35 _ 33 _ 16 _ 49 _ 50 _ 56 _ 36 _ 44 _ 46 _ 26 _ 52 _ 43 __ 486 (26)
    29 437 snowstreams______ -- _ 54 _ 29 _ 36 _ 57 _ 50 _ 28 _ 46 _ 46 _ 66 _ 16 _ 25 __ 453 (29)
    30 407 delw_____________46 _ 56 _ 66 _ 34 _ 75 _ -- _ 26 _ 21 _ 47 _ 13 _ 23 _ --- __ 407 (31)

    31 394 H2UMrsRobinson __ 41 _ 36 _ 22 _ 44 _ 39 _ 10 _ 32 _ 25 _ 46 _ 57 _ 48 _ 26 __ 426 (30)
    32 279 cherryghost ______ 71 _ 58 _ 21 _ -- _ --- _ --- _ 42 _ 38 _ 49 _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 279 (32)


    Three or four entries __

    Hammer Archer _________ 63 _ 60 _ --- _ 46 _ 46 _ -- _ --- _ -- _ -- _ --- _ -- _ --- __ 215 (33)
    Bejubby _______________ -- _ 46 _ 44 _ 40 _ 25 _ -- _ --- _ -- __ 21 _ -- _ -- _ --- __ 176 (34)
    Rebelbrowser ___________ 52 _ 14 _ 33 _ 55 _ -- _ -- _ --- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ --- _ --- ___ 154 (36)
    dexter647 ______________ -- _ 32 _ --- _ 63 _ -- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ 54 _ -- _ -- _ --- ___ 149 (37)
    Gonzo _________________________ 30 _ -- _ 52 _ -- _ --- _ --- _ 53 _ -- _ -- _ 39 ___ 174 (35)
    Rocky Bay _____________ 43 _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ 37 _ 20 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 100 (40)

    ____________________________________________

    Two entries

    jambofc 71 (Jan), 54 (Feb) ____ 125 (38)
    nabber 69 (Feb) 38 (Mar) _____ 107 (39)
    Quixelles 64 (June) 19 (July) ____83
    Keith96 52 (July), 18 (Aug) _____70
    MiNdGaM3 30 (Jan) 32 (Feb) ____62
    clintondaly 50 (June) 10 (July) __ 60

    (one entry)

    Deep Easterly 69 (Jan)
    Danno 65 (Jan)
    howlinwolf 59 (Jan)
    Tazio 58 (June)
    E. Fudd 55 (Feb)
    Deank 53 (Feb)
    "plan comes together" 53 (Jan)
    singers 53 (Aug)
    baraca 50 (Feb)
    blackbird 49 (Aug)
    cogsy 46 (Dec)
    NIALL_D 35 (Jan)
    Lumi 35 (Dec)
    BEASTERLY 34 (Jan)
    musicmental85 .. 32 (Nov)
    Gothwalk 26 (Dec)
    Pauloconn 10 (Nov)
    ___________________________________________________

    Boards.ie Award -- best 10 scores

    So, whle Con Sensus has high score in the main award, Tae laidir finishes in first place, with Harps and kindredspirit in the medal positions. Congrats! Dasa29 gets honorable mention for his 4th place finish, Omicron was 5th.


    MTC Award -- best total scores

    Tae laidir managed to beat Con Sensus in this category, and it was the same order of finish with Harps and kindredspirit in second and third (not counting Con). Once again, well done! Bsal and dasa29 rounded out the top five.

    Omicron, Jpmarn and Pauldry all moved up fairly well in December based on their last month scores. Nilhg did better in the MTC category as his two dropped scores were higher than most (37 his lowest score, second only to Tae laidir with 38 as lowest score).

    As reported last month, Bsal was the Four Seasons Award winner.


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    #52
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 708 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Thanks MT for all tbe scoring.
    Lady Luck arrived and brought me home.
    But Con has won this year's prize.
    I'm too sick to write a poem.


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    #53
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Close but no cigar! Congrats Tae Laidir, a good battle through the year but I couldn't keep up in the last couple of months

    Thanks as always MT for all the time and effort put into this!


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    #54
    rameire
    Registered Users Posts: 4,115 ✭✭✭rameire


    Congrats Tae Laidir


    January 2014 thread

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057113105

    form to fill out before 3am ( 4 hours time )

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ#gid=1

    🌞 3.8kwp, 🌞 Split 2.28S, 1.52E. 🌞 Clonee, Dub.🌞



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    #55
    Joe Public
    Registered Users Posts: 1,777 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Congrats Tae Laidir

    Well done MTC on keeping the competition going.


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