Snow Ice Warning for Ireland 29 Jan to 03 Feb 2019 See Mod Note in OP

JanuarySnowstor · 26-01-2019 5:15pm

The gfs p didn't come out. That's the 06z run which in the chopping and changing at the moment is well out of date

JCX BXC · 26-01-2019 5:19pm

torres9kop wrote: »

Will it snow in the Dublin 4 area on Tuesday does anyone know?

You've asked this question on every single event the last few years, and you always get the same answer of "that's a ridiculous question".

Honestly, do you think we're going to magically be able to tell you something different this time or are you just trolling?

Gonzo · 26-01-2019 5:20pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The gfs p didn't come out. That's the 06z run which in the chopping and changing at the moment is well out of date

I don't think it matters too much. The exact tracking of this low is still up in the air. I think it will be tomorrow sometime before we get a better idea of where it's going to make it's impact. Exciting model watching over the next few days.

Gaoth Laidir · 26-01-2019 6:08pm

Regardless of the track of the low, the airmass looks too modified for anything of note, away from hills and mountains.

munsterlegend · 26-01-2019 6:16pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Regardless of the track of the low, the airmass looks too modified for anything of note, away from hills and mountains.

Putting this week to one side the met office are bullish of a cold/very cold February. What’s your thinking on this?

eastmayo · 26-01-2019 7:01pm

The eagle on radio 1 just said plenty off snow showers for the West and northwest monday nite and Tuesday.

torres9kop · 26-01-2019 7:05pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

You've asked this question on every single event the last few years, and you always get the same answer of "that's a ridiculous question".

Honestly, do you think we're going to magically be able to tell you something different this time or are you just trolling?

So thats a no then?

Kermit.de.frog · 26-01-2019 7:17pm

ECM bringing that shortwave to our south that bit closer on Tuesday. Be interesting to see how the frontal zone lies there. As Gonzo mentioned could be a more significant snow risk here.

SleetAndSnow · 26-01-2019 7:17pm

in general, do we tend to get much from these ''channel low'' events that the UKMO, GFS/P and ECM seem to be all in agreement about now at 72hrs? Netweather is very excited about it as the south there should do well enough, but im assuming we dont usually do very well out of them and if we did it would be the far south coast of Ireland?

Kermit.de.frog · 26-01-2019 7:36pm

ECM bringing the precipitation well north from that system Monday night. Definite snow risk over the vast bulk of the country.

Kermit.de.frog · 26-01-2019 7:54pm

ICON very similar to the ECM.

Big change for us for Tuesday morning in particular. And with winds off shore in the east we are in the zone as well.

sdanseo · 26-01-2019 7:54pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

ECM bringing the precipitation well north from that system Monday night. Definite snow risk over the vast bulk of the country.

Nice to ECM showing a bit of potential.

GFS snow charts are worthless unless temps are -8 or below on other models (really we want -10 on GFS). It's shown snow so many times where none has materialised, in my location at least, enough times now to lose count. And that's just this season!

HIRLAM, when in range, has been very accurate for precipitation type, especially in big bands. Less show in showers and location of showers, but these are much harder for any model to predict exactly.

Rougies · 26-01-2019 7:56pm

ECM snow depth for midnight Tuesday. Looks about right to me, ie. accumulations mainly on higher ground above 300m. I'd imagine many will see snow falling over the next few days but accumulations at low levels will only be temporary under heavier falls. The usual Atlantic stuff, but I'll take it over nothing.

Larbre34 · 26-01-2019 8:02pm

A family funeral has arisen in Duncannon, South Wexford that will take place on Tuesday lunchtime. We'll be driving from home in Dublin, down and back same day.

Thoughts about potential travel disruption? Or is my thinking correct that it'll be very windy, cold and miserable with irritating squally mixed precip that is unlikely to affect the roads on my route?

Kermit.de.frog · 26-01-2019 8:04pm

Temporary disruption is a possibility but it's early days because some models only shifted as of this afternoon. Best check in tomorrow.

Gonzo · 26-01-2019 8:05pm

I reckon most places should see a dusting on Tuesday, unlikely to be disruptive away from high ground and some northern areas. I'd imagine any lying snow would be thawing during daylight hours.

Once that freezes overnight, could be some very tricky driving conditions Wednesday morning i'd imagine.

Will be interesting to see what this week brings, I'm guessing if i'm lucky I could see between 1 to 3cm, but not much more than that.

If we do manage to pull off a decent easterly even by mid March, it would likely result in more lying snow than we would from this Atlantic based cold spell.

Kermit.de.frog · 26-01-2019 8:18pm

Latest fax chart for Tuesday afternoon. You can see the occlusion in the Irish sea at that stage that will have brought the snow Tuesday morning. Note the system on track from the northwest for Tuesday night

Snowbiee21 · 26-01-2019 8:23pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Latest fax chart for Tuesday afternoon. You can see the occlusion in the Irish sea at that stage that will have brought the snow Tuesday morning. Note the system on track from the northwest for Tuesday night

Beast from the northwest *

Gonzo · 26-01-2019 8:38pm

lying snow is possible from a nw'ly on very rare occasions in eastern parts. Last January I somehow managed to get lucky and ended up with a streamer from the Atlantic and got a decent but very brief fall of snow. The attached image was taken around 8pm, on the 9th or 10th of January. The following morning, much milder air came in and melted everything very quickly.

It is possible some parts of Ireland could have scenes like this over the next few days.

Monkeynut · 26-01-2019 9:20pm

Gonzo wrote: »

lying snow is possible from a nw'ly on very rare occasions in eastern parts. Last January I somehow managed to get lucky and ended up with a streamer from the Atlantic and got a decent but very brief fall of snow. The attached image was taken around 8pm, on the 9th or 10th of January. The following morning, much milder air came in and melted everything very quickly.

It is possible some parts of Ireland could have scenes like this over the next few days.

my brother sent me this on the 16th january 2018.

Meteorite58 · 26-01-2019 10:11pm

So ECM showing wintry precipitation and snow showers throughout Tues with some accumulations by night , more so in the W, NW. More snow overnight into Weds, showers throughout the day more so the further North. These days to me atm look like wet snow at elevation, very little if any lower down atm. ECM still showing a massive dump of snow in the Northern half of the country from that very deep LP early Thurs and through the day, big question mark over this ???

squarecircles · 26-01-2019 11:33pm

subtle changes over the past 24 hours on the gfs percipitation type maps,as i suspected now

more of a pig slurry mix on the immediate coast in the west.

slosh on wednesday

northern ireland could do well on thursday.

would have been nice to get a decent proper countrywide solid cold week.

it just looks a marginal wet mess unless well inland or elevated.

[ Mod Snip ]

awful muck of a winter so far.

Kermit.de.frog · 27-01-2019 12:08am

Important to note nothing has changed with the forecast a part from the possibility of some more prolonged snowfall on Tuesday as an alternative to showers otherwise it will be snow showers from Monday night through to Wednesday night.

You don't want to get caught out especially in the northwest, Connaught and west Munster...there will be heavy snow showers and every chance of disruption there regardless and hopefully people are aware whatever about the rest of the country.

ECM still showing a massive dump of snow in the Northern half of the country from that very deep LP early Thurs and through the day, big question mark over this ???

Unusually low thickness levels are progged for the end of the week which means the lowest atmospheric layers are colder than normal to lower levels. This gives a compensatory effect at ground level against other variables that may on the surface appear more marginal for snow to reach the surface.

In other words -8c at 850hpa (for example) is effective at a lower altitude than the typical circa 1.4 or 1.5km altitude. This makes a big difference.

pauldry · 27-01-2019 12:30am

Inland Northwest will have snow but coastal districts will have pigmuck hail sleet n mush.

Lows will be 0c at night in snow but 2 or 3c at coast in pigmuck

Vxlkss · 27-01-2019 2:09am

What could this mean for the capital? Or regions closer to the Dublin/Wicklow Mountains come Tuesday to Thursday? I understand It could mainly be showers, but from the chart above on Thursday we could be in for a REAL dumping if that came off?

kittyn · 27-01-2019 2:13am

Vxlkss wrote: »

What could this mean for the capital? Or regions closer to the Dublin/Wicklow Mountains come Tuesday to Thursday? I understand It could mainly be showers, but from the chart above on Thursday we could be in for a REAL dumping if that came off?

Take those charts above with a rather large pinch of salt ....... Not showing much for Dublin anyway though, I think you may be looking at the purple blob over the Wicklow mountains ........ We may not see much at all in Dublin unfortunately:(

Larbre34 · 27-01-2019 2:15am

So, um, pigmuck expected so? ðŸ˜

squarecircles · 27-01-2019 2:19am

Vxlkss wrote: »

What could this mean for the capital? Or regions closer to the Dublin/Wicklow Mountains come Tuesday to Thursday? I understand It could mainly be showers, but from the chart above on Thursday we could be in for a REAL dumping if that came off?

these charts interpret the snow accumulation on the premise that every single flake
that falls accumulates,this is not the case however in reality,therefor those charts exaggerate
snowfall and are mere clickbait to some degree.

An Ri rua · 27-01-2019 2:22am

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Latest fax chart for Tuesday afternoon. You can see the occlusion in the Irish sea at that stage that will have brought the snow Tuesday morning. Note the system on track from the northwest for Tuesday night

Beast from the northwest *

More like F All from Rockall !!!

squarecircles · 27-01-2019 2:24am

Larbre34 wrote: »

So, um, pigmuck expected so? ðŸ˜

a veritable smorgasbord,

sleet,slosh,wet snow,snow,grappel,pellets,hailstones,rain,cold rain.

Snow Ice Warning for Ireland 29 Jan to 03 Feb 2019 *See Mod Note in OP *

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Snow Ice Warning for Ireland 29 Jan to 03 Feb 2019 See Mod Note in OP