Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

sryanbruen · 12-11-2018 12:36pm

arctictree wrote: »

Good November snow really needs strong North/North Easterlies. It's not really until December that a continental easterly will deliver. At least the raging Atlantic seems to be gone on the charts!

Depends on what you define as "good", November 1993 easterly brought 1-10cm of snow to some places in the east of Ireland especially in rural areas with even more on mountains.

sryanbruen · 12-11-2018 12:37pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Fantastic charts coming out. Still too early to be hunting for proper cold and also we have been here plenty of times before.

Yeah, have not been posting about the shorter range model charts for that reason.

Captain Snow · 12-11-2018 12:55pm

So much potential. All the cold built up ready to deliver our snow.....lots of trigger lows. Infact the Jet throughtout this mornings 06 run has gone to southern Africa for its holidays.

leahyl · 12-11-2018 2:28pm

I suppose they are all gone mad over on netweather?!

NMB · 12-11-2018 3:22pm

leahyl wrote: »

I suppose they are all gone mad over on netweather?!

Yep - I don’t blame them all aboard the polar coaster !!!

sideswipe · 12-11-2018 4:17pm

There's something-a-brewing.......the snow hawks are circling!! Looking forward to another season of chart/lamppost watching. Bring....it.....on!!

little bess · 12-11-2018 4:37pm

I have a prepay gas meter at home, and have just received a letter from Bord Gais saying that a higher amount of emergency credit is now available on the gas card form December 1st - €10 instead of €5. They state that “we advise customers to prepare for severe weather conditions and top up in advance, when possible”. Do they know something we don’t know! Here’s hoping!

Working class heroes · 12-11-2018 4:54pm

So we are definitely going to have two feet of snow on Christmas day, is that right?:D:)

giveitholly · 12-11-2018 4:54pm

little bess wrote: »

I have a prepay gas meter at home, and have just received a letter from Bord Gais saying that a higher amount of emergency credit is now available on the gas card form December 1st - €10 instead of €5. They state that “we advise customers to prepare for severe weather conditions and top up in advance, when possible”. Do they know something we don’t know! Here’s hoping!

No I think they are preying on the vulnerable and trying to make more money but thats for another forum

Kermit.de.frog · 12-11-2018 4:56pm

Not that far away here but need better orientation of high pressure, a more favourable jet pattern and some deeper areas of low pressure to our south to send that deeper cold air westward toward us in the model runs ahead.

sryanbruen · 12-11-2018 5:57pm

JMA seasonal model for Winter 2018/19 looking very similar to UKMO Glosea5 with a lot of northern blocking over Greenland and a trough over central Europe.....

refusetolose · 12-11-2018 8:16pm

https://twitter.com/WinterExpert/status/1062054031793799169

sdanseo · 12-11-2018 8:33pm

Working class heroes wrote: »

So we are definitely going to have two feet of snow on Christmas day, is that right?:D:)

If you were a betting person...worth a tenner.

ANDREWMUFC · 12-11-2018 9:18pm

IM DREAMING OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS, JUST LIKE THE ONES I USED TO KNOW

limnam · 12-11-2018 9:43pm

little bess wrote: »

I have a prepay gas meter at home, and have just received a letter from Bord Gais saying that a higher amount of emergency credit is now available on the gas card form December 1st - €10 instead of €5. They state that “we advise customers to prepare for severe weather conditions and top up in advance, when possible”. Do they know something we don’t know! Here’s hoping!

Getting the bobs in for their xmas party.

Kermit.de.frog · 13-11-2018 6:37am

Most model output is pointing toward major changes on the cards within the next 10 - 15 days. High pressure dominant to the north and an increasingly noticeable and persistent continental influence on our weather - benign at first but probably much colder later in the period the longer this pattern of northern blocking persists.

Then we could be in to an interchangeable run of northerly/easterly flows and that brings the possibility of deeper winter weather and snowfalls toward the end of the month and in to December. It's tentative and a long way out but the trend is certainly there at the moment.

A lot to keep an eye on!

ECM1-240.GIF?13-12

KingdomRushed · 13-11-2018 8:08am

The charts are excellent this morning for anyone who wants an early flavour of winter. If anything the potential for cold has hugely upgraded. The ECM is now showing a Greenland High in the final frames with an easterly wind embedded some time before that.

Bear in mind this pattern would have to establish and become long lasting before the real cold gets here given the time of year. But I have to say genuinely taken aback by what is developing

Reckless Abandonment · 13-11-2018 8:10am

It's all looking very 2010. I just don't believe it yet. But the models are certainly showing the right stuff for cold and snow.

sryanbruen · 13-11-2018 8:53am

And yet another model showing a lot of northern blocking for Winter 2018-19..... this time it’s the Beijing Climate Centre.

Mount Vesuvius · 13-11-2018 9:28am

Lots of people on other platforms getting a bit carried away with the forecast Scandi block and possibly retrograde. At the moment this will just feel seasonal. Nothing major on the horizon just yet. Good start though and perhaps the building blocks to the proper cold when or if it arrives.

ZX7R · 13-11-2018 9:56am

Plenty of people comparing it to the build up to November 2010.
For me it is more akin to the set up late 2009 plenty of frost and dry build up to the new year, snow new year's night and plenty of snow for the first week or two of January 2010

Reckless Abandonment · 13-11-2018 10:31am

Most likely outcome is this first bite of the cherry comes to nothing (No snowmaggadon). But like earlier this year it took a few goes to get the goods. . So let's hope the good charts keep coming.

bazlers · 13-11-2018 11:23am

To be honest no one knows to any great accuracy what is on the horizon. MT Cranium is definitely getting closer and even he would be about 60- 70 % accurate? ( I could be doing him an injustice there) but the fun and excitement is is in the potential and forecasting of what may occur.

Listening to all the different assessments of the charts is interesting. All the ingredients seem to be there this winter its just trying to get them to come together at the right time. Get that jet stream to stay south and we are on a winner.

Will this be the "one" here's hoping. Time will tell as always.

bazlers · 13-11-2018 12:31pm

Just my own tupence on this coming winter and I can a sure you its not even worth that!
But anyways I would be a big believer in nature balancing things out.
You take it this summer while we were sweltering Iceland had a terrible dull and wet summer withe jet stream right over them.
I think they will have a dry winter that means northern blocking stationed over them introducing cold easterlies to us.
We will have to make up for our dry summer so I can see a lot of undercutting of fronts when they come up against the cold easterlies.
This is where I believe we will have big dumps of snow especially where LPs get stalled and this will favour the eastern side of the country to begin with.
Obviously there will be mild incursions too but well above average snowfall I'm thinking.

A simplistic view but might not be too far from the eventual out come. One hopes.

Graces7 · 13-11-2018 12:41pm

Locals here are opining a hard winter; we had snow atop the mountains for two days mid October and that is very very unusual. west mayo offshore island

Captain Snow · 13-11-2018 12:59pm

Mother of all Beasts from the East.

nacho libre · 13-11-2018 1:30pm

The weather map this morning of the monster high out to the east, seemingly elongating or splitting, and migrating north westwards, along with a potential late November stratospheric warming, has reminded me of something in the past. The residual energy left from the vortex over Greenland might be enough to ensure the first attempts fail, but if blocking persists to the north east of us, then i think we could be in business later in December.

PS I hope the wintry potential in the offing brings a certain poster from Arklow back. His input at these times is good.

giveitholly · 13-11-2018 1:53pm

nacho libre wrote: »

The weather map this morning of the monster high out to the east, seemingly elongating or splitting, and migrating north westwards, along with a potential late November stratospheric warming, has reminded me of something in the past. The residual energy left from the vortex over Greenland might be enough to ensure the first attempts fail, but if blocking persists to the north east of us, then i think we could be in business later in December.

PS I hope the wintry potential in the offing brings a certain poster from Arklow back. His input at these times is good.

Yeah it would be great to see that poster back alright

sryanbruen · 13-11-2018 2:23pm

nacho libre wrote: »

The weather map this morning of the monster high out to the east, seemingly elongating or splitting, and migrating north westwards, along with a potential late November stratospheric warming, has reminded me of something in the past. The residual energy left from the vortex over Greenland might be enough to ensure the first attempts fail, but if blocking persists to the north east of us, then i think we could be in business later in December.

PS I hope the wintry potential in the offing brings a certain poster from Arklow back. His input at these times is good.

He does ask me to post for him here a lot, on Twitter since he closed his most recent account.

sryanbruen · 13-11-2018 2:25pm

Captain Snow wrote: »

Mother of all Beasts from the East.

That CFS week 3 chart is a 2010 redux all over.

Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

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