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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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The latest GFS still sticking with a Northerly track, The ECM seems to send the remnants more towards Spain again ( did this a few days ago and then tracked the storm towards us in a following run ). The UKMO shows the LP areas of EX Maria and ex Lee . I have read a piece from Matt Hugo saying this area as being described as having the potential for rapid cyclongenesis when it is combined with the jet stream and strong baroclonic zone later in the weekend.
5 or 6 days away, the models will need to come more in line before confidence in a track or strength.
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The ECM has shifted the potential storm on the 12z to a more NE'ly track , to me not looking too potent in this run from what I can make out, even though a low Barometer reading it looks a bit flabby . The 3 models are showing a depression / possible storm close to our shores, two going for a NE 'ly track off Scotland.
Early days yet. These charts have been chopping and changing nearly every run. More twists and turns to come no doubt.
Note 850 hPa Charts
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Interesting how the latest GFS and the UKMO are beginning to look similar Sun into Mon. Very strong winds showing up in the GFS and the system begins to stall as it gets sandwiched in by blocking HP , that could mean strong winds for longer and more rain for longer.
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The GFS is picking up on a very significant - and perhaps quite extreme anticyclone ridging into Ireland from next Tuesday onwards. Though it begins to weak and push eastwards towards the end of its run, it's still providing a lot of dry weather for us. Another very anticyclonic October for the third year in a row? :cool::eek: Notice the northern blocking over Greenland on Saturday, October 14th in the second chart
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Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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Still a bit away but the 4 main models showing ex Ophelia in some shape or form over or near Ireland around next Mon/ Tues, will take a few days to have a better idea of its track and intensity, that is if it makes it this far, but the charts below showing a fairly close collection of tracks.
The 12Z GFS taking it up along the Western seaboard....
The UKMO showing a direct track over Ireland....
The GEM showing it ending up after phasing with another area of LP ( I think )
The ECM showing a track up over Ireland as a deep depression / storm
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After the above low ^ passes through Ireland on Saturday (discuss about it in this thread: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057798209), the GFS 12z is picking up on another deep low but following a more traditional track with its centre to the northwest.
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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Summer makes a return in early November on the GFS 06z.
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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sryanbruen wrote: »After the above low ^ passes through Ireland on Saturday (discuss about it in this thread: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057798209), the GFS 12z is picking up on another deep low but following a more traditional track with its centre to the northwest.
That low has deepened out in the Atlantic,the track may take it more northerly than Brian.0 -
sryanbruen wrote: »Summer makes a return in early November on the GFS 06z.
The chart has updated above here and what a difference it is to my original post. Northerly winds now instead of an "Indian Summer".Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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Well no storms in the foreseeable future . Looking out into FI and I'm seeing the GFS showing some ridging over Ireland around the weekend leading to HP over us or near us for maybe a couple of days leading to mild and what looks like calmer conditions. The week after has the present GFS run painting a picture of Europe cooling down with perhaps a quieter Atlantic. Ireland possibly receiving cooler airs from Europe with the Jet arcing in a very Northern route and pulling down cold airs into central Europe .
The ECMWF is not as promising next weekend not letting the ridging develop and with a slow moving large area of LP well north of Scotland feeding down cold airs from polar regions from a NW direction and no doubt showers or wintry showers perhaps in northern counties.
In general a colder outlook for Europe the week after next ,will it transfer some of that cold air to us ?
Just my own musings , open to all sorts of change
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This discussion has been closed.
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