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Winter 2017-18: Discussion

12357…80

Comments

  • #122
    MidMan25
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,027 ✭✭✭MidMan25


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    I think they mean that last year's suggestion of snow didn't come off, and they're glad as they're a cold person.

    There's no need to be so shocked at everything Syran!

    Yep, last year's prediction:

    "Winter 2016-17 Outlook: I am expecting a rather different outcome from last winter, and something a little similar to 2010-2011 which started out very cold and snowy, then turned much milder. This winter, I am predicting rather cold weather to start, from late November through much of December, and the opportunity for some significant snowfalls. It probably won't be as intense as the cold or snow of late 2010, let's say on the order of two degrees below average and 5-15 cm snowfalls possible in the period (recall that Dec 2010 produced some 30-40 cm falls in Leinster). As usual, this snowfall would be more likely in the eastern half of the country and in some parts of the northwest. Then I expect a much milder pattern to develop in January peaking towards the end of the month with very mild weather. February and March look fairly average in my research output"

    December was warmer and drier than average

    January was warmer and drier than average (In fairness MT called January right)

    February was warmer and drier than average

    March was warmer and wetter than average


  • #123
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,498 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    MidMan25 wrote: »
    Yep, last year's prediction:

    "Winter 2016-17 Outlook: I am expecting a rather different outcome from last winter, and something a little similar to 2010-2011 which started out very cold and snowy, then turned much milder. This winter, I am predicting rather cold weather to start, from late November through much of December, and the opportunity for some significant snowfalls. It probably won't be as intense as the cold or snow of late 2010, let's say on the order of two degrees below average and 5-15 cm snowfalls possible in the period (recall that Dec 2010 produced some 30-40 cm falls in Leinster). As usual, this snowfall would be more likely in the eastern half of the country and in some parts of the northwest. Then I expect a much milder pattern to develop in January peaking towards the end of the month with very mild weather. February and March look fairly average in my research output"

    December was warmer and drier than average

    January was warmer and drier than average (In fairness MT called January right)

    February was warmer and drier than average

    March was warmer and wetter than average

    Whilst the closest to his prediction being right was January, I would also like to point out that he said for January to be the mildest of the three when in actual fact, it was the coolest out of the three. Central England was actually -0.1c below its January average if you use the 1981-2010 average. These are the IMTs for each month last Winter and their anomalies:

    December: 6.7c (+1.1c)
    January: 6.1c (+0.6c)
    February: 6.4c (+1.1c)

    IMTs calculated from Met Éireann and UKMO's historical data

    However, I have sympathy for him for his forecast because I was in the same situation as him. I predicted a cold Winter given how the pattern was looking at the time when I released it. The one gripe that gave every one of us forecasters headaches last year was the QBO as I just mentioned. The QBO was unique for 2016/17. There was never a year going back to 1950 where the QBO matched with 2016/17. The QBO followed its normal system in 2015/16 when it was a westerly QBO. You would expect it to go easterly for 2016/17 and for a time around April-May 2016, it looked like it would. As you know already, I've explained what the QBO is and how it works along with how easterly QBOs help increase the chances of a cold Winter. But by the Summer and the latter half of the year, the westerlies then outdid the chances of an easterly QBO happening and the westerly QBO took over again for 2016/17. Like I said, never once back to 1950 has an event like that occurred.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #124
    MidMan25
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,027 ✭✭✭MidMan25


    Not trying to put anyone down etc, just calling a spade a spade.

    Your post aludes to how difficult it can be to even predict roughly how a month will turn out.


  • #125
    beefburrito
    Closed Accounts Posts: 695 ✭✭✭beefburrito


    Soon enough I'll open up the same book I've read a few times over the last few years.

    "Ireland's Arctic Siege" by Kevin Kearns it's a great crackling fire side read coming into the winter months....a few pages an evening will get the snow bunnies excited...


  • #126
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,498 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    beefburrito wrote: »
    Soon enough I'll open up the same book I've read a few times over the last few years.

    "Ireland's Arctic Siege" by Kevin Kearns it's a great crackling fire side read coming into the winter months....a few pages an evening will get the snow bunnies excited...

    So you would recommend it? I’ve been thinking of getting it.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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  • #127
    sideswipe
    Registered Users Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭sideswipe


    Can anybody tell me when the current alert system was brought in to give the yellow, orange and red designations?


  • #128
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    The alert system isn’t more than a decade old I think

    As for snow-coastal low ground Ireland where most people live is probably one of the most hostile environments usually for a snow flake in the world


  • #129
    beefburrito
    Closed Accounts Posts: 695 ✭✭✭beefburrito


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    So you would recommend it? I’ve been thinking of getting it.

    It's a must buy,it always comes out around this time of year.
    It's best read on a damp cold evening.....
    I bought it a few years ago...
    I'm sure there's still copies left.


  • #130
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    beefburrito wrote: »
    Soon enough I'll open up the same book I've read a few times over the last few years.

    "Ireland's Arctic Siege" by Kevin Kearns it's a great crackling fire side read coming into the winter months....a few pages an evening will get the snow bunnies excited...

    Would be great to digest it with some of the white gold pouring down outside :cool:


  • #131
    beefburrito
    Closed Accounts Posts: 695 ✭✭✭beefburrito


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    Would be great to digest it with some of the white gold pouring down outside :cool:

    One eye on the page another on the lamppost outside ðŸ˜


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  • #132
    Tabnabs
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,687 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs


    Lucky hill tops

    https://twitter.com/wxweb/status/922766504587866112


  • #133
    weisses
    Registered Users Posts: 9,430 ✭✭✭weisses


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    I have a forecast more or less prepared for delivery on Wed 25th, and let's just say it won't be front page news for any tabloids. :)

    Would be nice If you can reflect on previous long term predections

    Were you happy with your summer predictions ?


  • #134
    Tabnabs
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,687 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs


    Telemark, Norway this morning

    https://twitter.com/Meteorologene/status/922781715562749952


  • #135
    BoatMad
    Registered Users Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭BoatMad


    Nice mild non descript winter just like last year please. Easy on the bones and the bills


  • #136
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,498 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    beefburrito wrote: »
    It's a must buy,it always comes out around this time of year.
    It's best read on a damp cold evening.....
    I bought it a few years ago...
    I'm sure there's still copies left.

    Have you read Deluge: Ireland’s Weather Disasters 2009-10?

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #137
    PokeHerKing
    Registered Users Posts: 4,206 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    BoatMad wrote:
    Nice mild non descript winter just like last year please. Easy on the bones and the bills


    Where's the fun in that!!


  • #138
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,498 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    PokeHerKing wrote: »
    Where's the fun in that!!

    Seeing people complain despite it doing absolutely no harm :p.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #139
    highdef
    Registered Users Posts: 6,129 ✭✭✭highdef


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Seeing people complain despite it doing absolutely no harm :p.

    Says your man who obviously pays nothing towards heating bills!


  • #140
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,498 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    highdef wrote: »
    Says your man who obviously pays nothing towards heating bills!

    I don't get what that has to do with Winter 2016/17.

    P.S. I do pay towards heating bills sometimes using my allowance if I have no choice but to and also I haven't used the heater myself in nearly 2 hours.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #141
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,096 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    I have a forecast more or less prepared for delivery on Wed 25th, and let's just say it won't be front page news for any tabloids. :)

    Our Wednesday or your Wednesday MT? :)


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  • #142
    Pappacharlie
    Registered Users Posts: 197 ✭✭Pappacharlie


    Morning MT

    Could you post a link to your long range forecast at your convenience.

    Thanks.


  • #143
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,096 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Pappacharlie wrote: »
    Morning MT

    Could you post a link to your long range forecast at your convenience.

    Thanks.

    Has not been issued yet.


  • #144
    h7nlrp2v0g5u48
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭h7nlrp2v0g5u48


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Has not been issued yet.

    Looking forward to MT's long range forecast. He might have some surprises for us this Winter.


  • #145
    snaps
    Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    So my winter update from southern Poland. Just sneaked our first heavy snowfall of the season into October. Late this year by a couple of weeks.
    Last photo is at about 1200m ASL in our village.
    The rest of the photos are taken from social media (So not mine) from around Zakopane.

    431926.jpg
    431923.jpg431924.jpg431925.jpg


  • #146
    John mac
    Registered Users Posts: 5,105 ✭✭✭John mac


    only seeing one pic though , the other 3 are only showing 1 pixel ..


  • #147
    snowstorm445
    Registered Users Posts: 932 ✭✭✭snowstorm445


    :Dhttp://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2017/10/30/bull****-warning-issued-as-annual-worst-winter-in-50-years-articles-emerge/


  • #148
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,096 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    snowstorm445 wrote: »
    :Dhttp://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2017/10/30/bull****-warning-issued-as-annual-worst-winter-in-50-years-articles-emerge/

    Was just about to post that!

    Strange occurrence when Waterford Whispers are more accurate than the tabloidy weather news.

    Sadly, due to boards filter on the word sh!t, the article won't load, however look up Waterford Whispers on Facebook and you should find the article.


  • #149
    lapua20grain
    Registered Users Posts: 821 ✭✭✭lapua20grain


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Was just about to post that!

    Strange occurrence when Waterford Whispers are more accurate than the tabloidy weather news.

    Sadly, due to boards filter on the word sh!t, the article won't load, however look up Waterford Whispers on Facebook and you should find the article.

    Just read it, brilliant as always


  • #150
    esposito
    Registered Users Posts: 1,342 ✭✭✭esposito


    natashaob6 wrote: »
    Looking forward to MT's long range forecast. He might have some surprises for us this Winter.

    He might. But will they come true


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  • #151
    h7nlrp2v0g5u48
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭h7nlrp2v0g5u48


    John mac wrote: »
    only seeing one pic though , the other 3 are only showing 1 pixel ..

    I can't see anything either when I click on each one.


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