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02-09-2020, 12:25   #91
M.T. Cranium
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MS confirms these values for scoring the August contest ...

IMT 15.5 MAX 25.2 MIN 1.6 PRC 151% SUN 83%

FORECASTER _______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Bonus ___ TOTAL


Pauldry ____________25 _ 13 _ 10 _ 14 _ 07 ___ 4 0 3 _____ 76

Appledrop __________24 _ 13 _ 17 _ 01 _ 09 ___ 4 0 3 _____ 71

Jpmarn ____________21 _ 09 _ 15 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 2 3 2 1 ____71

Rikand _____ (-2) ___ 20 _ 20 _ 20 _ 02 _ 03 __ 4 0 3 1_73-2=71

dasa29 ____________ 20 _ 14 _ 12 __13 _ 07 ___ 1 1 2 _____70


Normal ____________21 _ 09 _ 18 _ 05 _ 07 ___ 4 3 2 1 ___ 70


DOCARCH__________ 20 _ 11 _ 14 _ 11 _ 06 ___ 1 3 2 _____ 68

Sunflower3 _________24 _ 20 _ 03 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 2 0 1 _____ 68

Bsal ______________ 24 _ 10 _ 10 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 1 0 2 _____ 65

MrSkinner __________23 _ 20 _ 01 _ 03 _ 08 ___ 3 3 1 _____ 62

Dacogawa _________ 22 _ 00 _ 09 _ 15 _ 07 ___ 4 2 2 1 ____ 62

waterways _________ 23 _ 02 _ 08 _ 11 _ 07 ___ 4 0 2 _____ 57

Eon1208 _____(-8) __21 _ 20 _ 05 _ 02 _ 05 ___ 4 3 3 2_65-8=57

mickger844posts_(-3)_20 _ 20 _ 00 _ 02 _ 08 ___ 3 0 3 _56-3=53

Kindred Spirit _______ 20 _ 04 _ 03 _ 11 _ 08 ___ 2 3 2 _____ 53

john mac ___________20 _ 13 _ 02 _ 03 _ 06 ___ 4 0 3 _____ 51


___ Con Sensus _____ 22 _ 04 _ 07 _ 03 _ 06 ___ 2 3 2 _____ 49


WesternStorm ______ 25 _ 02 _ 08 _ 03 _ 05 ___ 1 1 3 _____ 48

Joe Public___________17 _ 01 _ 08 _ 05 _ 07 ___ 4 3 1 1 ____47

M.T. Cranium _______ 20 _ 01 _ 04 _ 08 _ 06 ___ 2 0 3 _____ 44

200motels__________ 20 _ 10 _ 03 _ 01 _ 05 ___ 1 0 3 _____ 43

Mrstonewall _________13 _ 02 _ 16 _ 03 _ 06 ___ 2 0 1 _____ 43

Artane2002 _________20 _ 01 _ 07 _ 05 _ 04 ___ 2 0 3 _____ 42

Adam240610 _______ 19 _ 06 _ 03 _ 02 _ 00 ___ 1 3 3 _____ 37

Tae laidir ___________18 _ 04 _ 04 _ 02 _ 05 ___ 1 0 1 _____ 35

sryanbruen _________ 19 _ 01 _ 03 _ 02 _ 05 ___ 2 0 3 _____ 35

BLIZZARD7 ____ (-4) _17 _ 00 _ 08 _ 02 _ 00 ___ 4 0 2 _33-4=29

Gonzo______ (-10) __ 21 _ 02 _ 04 _ 00 _ 02 ___ 3 0 3_35-10=25

_________________________________________________

Notes: small boosts were given to MAX and MIN as fewer than 2/3 of scores were greater than zero, but in both cases the boosts were reduced as there were several high raw scores. The PRC boost was more generous than expected, the official number came in 1% lower than the range where a reduced boost would be justified, and in any case the month was starting to look like an automatic discard for most if I reduced all of the boosts. The bonus was scored rather generously in three groups (4, 3, 3 max points) and one superbonus of 2 points was awarded, several of 1 point. For location, the scores were 3 for Valentia, 2 for Roches Point and 1 for Malin Head, 0 for any other location. For dates, I gave the predictions 21st-31st 3 points, 11th-20th 2 and 1st-10th 1. For amount, 40+ was worth 4, 35.1-39.9 got 3, 30.0-35.0 2, the rest 1.

Gonzo, I scored your forecast and reduced it by 10 for the archives, but the actual penalty there would be more than the score itself.

Well done to five who got scores into the 70s, led by Pauldry.

Annual scoring update to follow, probably not right away, closer to this evening perhaps.

==================================================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max rain locn date


Mrstonewall _________16.7 _ 27.4 _ 2.3 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 33.0 Shannon 4th

BLIZZARD7 ____ (-4) _16.3 _ 29.5 _ 3.3 _ 080 _ 135 ___ 58.0 Dunsany 18th

Joe Public___________16.3 _ 28.3 _ 3.3 _ 099 _ 099 ___ 43.0 Valentia 4th

Tae laidir ___________16.2 _ 27.0 _ 3.7 _ 082 _ 109 ___ 23.0 Mace Head 5th

sryanbruen _________ 16.1 _ 28.4 _ 4.1 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 32.0 Newport 25th

Adam240610 _______ 16.1 _ 26.8 _ 4.0 _ 080 _ 144 ___ 29.0 Valentia 27th

M.T. Cranium _______ 16.0 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 105 _ 102 ___ 35.0 Dunsany 28th

Artane2002 _________16.0 _ 27.8 _ 3.3 _ 100 _ 113 ___ 35.0 Newport 21st

200motels__________ 16.0 _ 26.4 _ 3.9 _ 077 _ 106 ___ 20.0 Dublin Airport 22nd

mickger844posts_(-3)_16.0 _ 25.4 _ 4.9 _ 084 _ 095 ___ 36.0 Johnstown Castle 26th

Jpmarn ____________ 15.9 _ 26.5 _ 2.5 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 32.5 Valentia 16th

Eon1208 _____ (-8) __ 15.9 _ 25.2 _ 3.4 _ 089 _ 106 ___ 46.0 Valentia 29th

Dacogawa __________ 15.8 _ 29.2 _ 3.1 _ 159 _ 096 ___ 42.0 Roches Point 14th


Con Sensus _________ 15.8 _ 27.0 _ 3.3 _ 095 _ 102 ___ 35.0 (see info below)


waterways __________15.7 _ 27.3 _ 3.2 _ 116 _ 097 ___ 43.0 Athenry 15th

Bsal _______________15.6 _ 26.4 _ 3.1 _ 110 _ 093 ___ 22.0 Gurteen 13th

Sunflower3 _________ 15.6 _ 25.1 _ 3.6 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 31.0 Newport 8th

WesternStorm _______15.5 _ 27.2 _ 3.2 _ 090 _ 106 ___ 22.0 Malin Head 22nd

Pauldry ____________ 15.5 _ 26.1 _ 3.1 _ 170 _ 100 ___ 40.0 Newport 31st

Appledrop __________ 15.4 _ 26.1 _ 2.5 _ 080 _ 090 ___ 41.0 Newport 27th

MrSkinner __________ 15.3 _ 25.3 _ 4.3 _ 093 _ 093 ___ 37.0 Valentia 4th


Normal _____________15.1 _ 26.5 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 40.0 (loc'n by climat, date random)


Kindred Spirit ________15.0 _ 27.0 _ 3.5 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 30.0 Valentia 17th

DOCARCH___________ 15.0 _ 26.3 _ 2.8 _ 115 _ 103 ___ 23.6 Valentia 15th

john mac ___________ 15.0 _ 26.1 _ 3.9 _ 095 _ 102 ___ 42.0 Newport 26th

dasa29 _____________15.0 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 __125 _100 ___ 25.0 Malin Head 18th

Rikand _____ (-2) ____15.0 _ 25.0 _ 1.5 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 50.0 Mount Dillon 24th

_________________________________________________

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 02-09-2020 at 15:39.
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02-09-2020, 12:51   #92
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Thanks M. T well done pauldry.


Now I'm probably going to do myself out of points here but I think Rikand should have got extra points over rest of us on Bonus question because by some miracle he/she actually managed to predict the exact date of highest rainfall on 24th Aug + nearly exact amount at 50mm.

I know its up to you M.T but just my thoughts.
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02-09-2020, 16:08   #93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by appledrop View Post
Thanks M. T well done pauldry.


Now I'm probably going to do myself out of points here but I think Rikand should have got extra points over rest of us on Bonus question because by some miracle he/she actually managed to predict the exact date of highest rainfall on 24th Aug + nearly exact amount at 50mm.

I know its up to you M.T but just my thoughts.
It is just totally a guessing game with a little bit of education attached to it. You would be lucky to get all the figures and dates right. I would look up some model runs to get some idea what the weather is like for the coming month but there is a lot of guesswork involved.
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02-09-2020, 16:09   #94
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Annual scoring update January to August 2020


rank _ FORECASTER ______ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun _Jul _Aug __TOTAL___ Best 7/8 (rank)



(01)_(01)__ NormaL _______ 70 _ 50 _ 73 _ 55 _ 52 _ 78 _ 59 _ 70 __ 507 ____ 457 (02)


01_(03) _Pauldry __________ 63 _ 36 _ 58 _ 69 _ 46 _ 79 _ 77 _ 76 __ 504 ____ 468 (01)

t02_(t01)_ Mrskinner _______ 86 _ 54 _ 72 _ 61 _ 60 _ 49 _ 49 _ 62 __ 493 ____ 444 (03)

t02_(05)_Jpmarn __________ 86 _ 51 _ 50 _ 61 _ 39 _ 62 _ 73 _ 71 __ 493 ____ 454 (02)


(04)_(01)___ Con Sensus ___ 70 _ 62 _ 59 _ 69 _ 57 _ 64 _ 58 _ 49 __ 488 ____ 439 (04)


04_(04)_Dacogawa ________ 73 _ 64 _ 53 _ 51 _ 62 _ 59 _ 63 _ 62 __ 487 ____ 436 (04)

05_(t07)_DOCARCH ________58 _ 61 _ 62 _ 50 _ 54 _ 69 _ 62 _ 68 __ 484 ____ 434 (05)

06_(t07)_ Kindred Spirit_____61 _ 63 _ 71 _ 71 _ 60 _ 53 _ 37 _ 53 __ 469 ____ 432 (06)

t07_(t01) _sryanbruen ______47 _ 58 _ 88 _ 71 _ 43 _ 54 _ 70 _ 35 __ 466 ____ 431 (07)

t07_(10)_mickger844posts __ 55 _ 63 _ 60 _ 48 _ 74 _ 59 _ 54 _ 53 __ 466 ____ 418 (11t)

09_(12)_ Dasa29 __________48 _ 70 _ 55 _ 38 _ 53 _ 63 _ 66 _ 70 __ 463 ____ 425 (08t)

10_(t07) _Artane2002 ______56 _ 63 _ 65 _ 69 _ 52 _ 50 _ 61 _ 42 __ 458 ____ 416 (13)

11_(t13)_ Sunflower3 ______ 68 _ 60 _ 50 _ 57 _ 51 _ 71 _ 32 _ 68 __ 457 ____ 425 (08t)

12_(06) _ Adam240610 _____62 _ 38 _ 58 _ 69 _ 47 _ 80 _ 64 _ 37 __ 455 ____ 418 (11t)

13_(t13)_Bsal ____________ 62 _ 54 _ 57 _ 52 _ 48 _ 49 _ 67 _ 65 __ 454 ____ 406 (15)

14_(11)_M.T. Cranium _____ 69 _ 59 _ 60 _ 51 _ 35 _ 75 _ 46 _ 44 __ 439 ____ 404 (16)

15_(15) _john mac ________ 64 _ 46 _ 52 _ 61 _ 59 _ 57 _ 41 _ 51 __ 431 ____ 390 (18)

16_(18)_Rikand ___________68 _ 38 _ 64 _ 73 _ 66 _ 41 _ --- _ 71 __ 421 ____ 421 (10)

17_(16)_200motels ________47 _ --- _ 75 _ 61 _ 60 _ 65 _ 60 _ 43 __ 411 ____ 411 (14)

18_(17)_Joe Public ________ 70 _ 65 _ 42 _ 39 _ 78 _ 59 _ --- _ 47 __ 400 ____ 400 (17)

19_(19) _Tae laidir ________ 67 _ 49 _ 48 _ 49 _ 53 _ 45 _ 37 _ 35 __ 383 ____ 348 (20)

20_(20) _waterways _______ --- _ 54 _ 42 _ 44 _ 67 _ 42 _ 63 _ 57 __ 369 ____ 369 (19)

21_(21) _BLIZZARD7 _______66 _ 36 _ 47 _ 44 _ 53 _ 15 _ --- _ 29 __ 290 ____ 290 (21)


22_(22)_Appledrop ________ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 47 _ 80 _ 71 __198

23 _(t24)_Mr Stonewall _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 34 _ 50 _ --- _ 43 __127

24_(26)_WesternStorm _____ 54 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 20 _ 48 __122

25 _(t24)_Gonzo __________ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 84 _ 25 __109

26 _(28) _Eon1208 ________ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 50 _ 57 __ 107

26_(23)_Tazio ____________ --- _ --- _ --- _ 68 _ --- _ 35 _ --- _ --- __103

27_(27)_JCXBXC __________ 58 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ----__ 58

29_(29)_esposito __________49 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ----__ 49

=================================================

Congrats to Pauldry who has moved into top position in both contests (overall score, best 7/8). MrSkinner drops to tied second overall and third in best 7/8, while JPmarn moves into that tie for second and holds second also in the best 7/8. These three have edged ahead of perpetual nemesis Con Sensus but this year it's NormaL doing the business despite being stuck with forecasts out of an internet file. Pauldry has managed to move past NormaL in the best 7/8, which will become best 7/9 after September, in order to set us up for the race to best 10/12 or "Boards Award" (for newbies, this is considered the main contest, the total score for 12 is so lowly that it has my name attached to it, as in MTC Award). So far nobody has ever been awarded anything but that's the nature of the game.

By the way, I did add one extra superbonus point to Rikand but that's about all I could do under the rules, these things tend to even out over time however.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 02-09-2020 at 16:15.
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02-09-2020, 16:20   #95
M.T. Cranium
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tae laidir View Post
MT, do ye have the same or similar expression 'down for the day'?
Hey, I missed seeing this post in real time, so anyway, as I'm not sure what the expression means after reading Pauldry's post about 21 mm rain at Newport, I don't know if we have something similar, in my mind "down for the day" means taking a rest, as in "that's all I plan to do, I'm down for the day."
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02-09-2020, 21:06   #96
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Four seasons contest update -- summer portion

The summer portion of the contest is shown with total scores and points following the points from two earlier seasons, the order is determined by annual points totals rather than this past season itself. Scores in brackets for summer were lower than 10th place and received no contest points.

Points for this contest are 10 for top seasonal score, then 7, 6, 5 etc down to 1 for 8th, 9th and 10th places. Then Con Sensus and NormaL are awarded the points they would have if playing the contest but no scores lower than theirs are affected.


FORECASTER ___ winter pts _ spring pts ___ Total score (summer), pts ___ TOTAL


MrSkinner ________ 10 _______5 __________(160)_________-- _________ 15

JPmarn ____________7 _______-- __________206 _________ 7 _________ 14

Pauldry ___________ -- _______ 1 _________ 232 _________10 _________ 11

Rikand ___________ -- _______ 10 ________ (112 2mo) _____ -- ________ 10


___ Con Sensus _____ 6 _______ 2 _________ 171 _________ 1 __________9

___ NormaL ________ 1 _______ 1 _________ 207 _________ 7 __________9


mickger844posts ____ 6_______ 2 __________(166) ________ -- _________ 8

Artane2002 ________ 5 _______ 3 _________(153)_________ -- __________8

sryanbruen ________-- _______ 7 _________ (159) ________ -- __________ 7

200motels ________ -- _______ 6 __________ 168 _________ 1 __________ 7

DOCARCH_________-- _______ -- __________ 199 _________ 6 __________ 6

dasa29 ___________-- _______ -- __________ 199 _________ 6 __________ 6

dacogawa __________2 _______ -- _________ 184 _________ 3 __________ 5

sunflower3 _________4 _______ -- __________171 _________ 1 __________ 5

Kindred Spirit______ -- _______ 4 __________(143) ________ -- __________ 4

Appledrop _________-- ______ -- ___________198 _________ 4 __________ 4

Adam240610 _______-- _______ 1 __________181 _________ 2 __________ 3

Bsal ______________ 1 _______ -- _________ 181 _________ 2 __________ 3

Joe Public __________3 _______ -- _________(106 2mo) ____ -- __________ 3

John mac __________ 1 _______ 1 _________ (149) ________ -- __________2

Tae laidir __________ 1 _______ -- __________(117) _______ -- __________ 1

_____________________________________________________________

No four seasons points yet, totals for summer: MTC 165, waterways 162 (lowest score to qualify 168)

... Quite a few still in the hunt going into autumn, the final quarter of this contest.
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03-09-2020, 00:02   #97
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Quote:
Originally Posted by appledrop View Post
Thanks M. T well done pauldry.


Now I'm probably going to do myself out of points here but I think Rikand should have got extra points over rest of us on Bonus question because by some miracle he/she actually managed to predict the exact date of highest rainfall on 24th Aug + nearly exact amount at 50mm.

I know its up to you M.T but just my thoughts.
Thats for trying, but seeing as how I also nailed the Max and the Min for the month, its not fair to give me too many points. I'm already too elite as it is
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