I would lay off any media "Breaking" tweets, such as above, for now as there is huge uncertainty in the NHC forecasts. Stick to the NHC and Levi Cowan for accurate information. There may be some interaction between TDs 13 and 14 when they get to the gulf, so watch out for sensationalist nonsense saying superstorm on the way, etc... bla bla.
Latest NHC discussions (10 am)
Tropical Depression Thirteen remains very disorganized this morning. The associated convection is elongated from northwest to southeast, and the low-level center is located near the northwestern end of the convective area. Additionally, satellite imagery and model analyses indicate that the mid-level center is located several hundred miles to the southeast of the low-level center. Earlier aircraft and scatterometer data suggested the possibility that the system was an open wave. However, the currently available data is ambiguous on whether the system still has a closed circulation, so it will be maintained as a tropical depression. The initial intensity remains 30 kt.
The initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/18 kt. There is little change to the track forecast philosophy through about 96 h.
A strong subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic should remain north of the depression during the next few days, steering the
cyclone at a fast pace to the west-northwest. After that, the ridge weakens some over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and Tropical
Depression Thirteen may interact with Tropical Depression Fourteen, which is also forecast to be in the Gulf by that time, with the
result of these things being a turn toward the northwest or north-northwest. The track guidance has shifted southward since the
last advisory, with the UKMET shifting far enough to the south that it takes the system over the Caribbean south of Cuba. The new
forecast track is also shifted a bit southward from the previous track. However, it lies to the north of the GFS, the UKMET, and the
various consensus models. It also lies north of the ECMWF model from 24-72 h.
The intensity forecast remains low confidence. The separation between the low- and mid-level centers, as well as some westerly
shear and dry air entrainment, suggests that significant strengthening is unlikely during the next 24 h or so. The dynamical
models suggests the centers will become more vertically aligned around 36-48 h and that the shear should diminish. However, the
system could be close to Hispaniola during this time, and be near Cuba thereafter, especially if it moves south of the forecast track.
The upper-level winds over the Gulf of Mexico should be generally favorable for development if the cyclone doesn't get too close to
Tropical Depression Fourteen. The possibilities range from the system degenerating to an open wave as seen in the GFS and ECMWF to
a major hurricane as seen in the HWRF. Given the uncertainty, the intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, and it
lies a little below the intensity consensus.
1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of thenorthern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos islands later today through Saturday night, and Tropical Storm Watches have been
issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is likely across this area beginning today and could cause mudslides and flash
and urban flooding through Sunday.
2. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions
of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could bring some storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts to portions of
Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early next week. Interests there should monitor this system's progress
and updates to the forecast over the next few days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0900Z 17.8N 58.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 18.1N 60.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 18.8N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 19.7N 67.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 20.6N 71.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 21.8N 74.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 23.2N 78.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 26.5N 84.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 30.0N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
Recent METOP-A/B ASCAT overpasses and earlier aircraft reconnaissance data indicate that the depression's circulation is
not well-defined. In fact, the scatterometer data revealed multiple swirls, particularly, one newly developed circulation near a recent
strong burst of deep convection near the coast of Honduras. Highest sustained winds from the scatterometer pass were 25-30 kt. For this advisory, the initial position is an uncertain centroid position of the multiple surface centers and the intensity is held at 30 kt. A
53rd Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight is scheduled for this morning and will hopefully paint a clearer picture on the
Deep convection has been increasing during the past few hours, especially in the north portion of the depression, so gradual
strengthening is still expected before it makes landfall on the east side of the Yucatan Peninsula in about 48 hours. After that time,
some weakening is forecast while the cyclone traverses the peninsula. The system is expected to enter the warm waters of the
southern Gulf of Mexico around the 60 hr period and restrengthen through the remainder of the forecast. Global models, however, are
indicating increasing south-southwesterly shear as the cyclone enters the northwest portion of the gulf which could prevent it from
reaching hurricane strength prior to landfall. For now, the forecast will reflect a low-end hurricane making landfall, similar
to the HCCA intensity model. The new intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory and is based on a
compromise of the various multi-model consensus aids.
The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/10 kt. The depression is forecast to be steered generally
northwestward during the next few days by a western extension of the atlantic subtropical ridge that stretches westward across Florida
and into the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. This general motion should result in landfall over the northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula on Saturday, with the system entering the northwestern Gulf by the middle of next week. I think it's worth noting that
both the UKMET and the DWD, Germany ICON global models are showing some binary interaction between the depression and Tropical
Depression Thirteen around the 96-120 hr period while both systems are situated in the Gulf of Mexico. If this scenario actually
occurs, the interaction could delay or slow tropical depression Fourteen's landfall over the northwestern Gulf coast.
The NHC forecast track is again adjusted a little to the right of the previous forecast and lies close to the TVCA and HCCA
1. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and is likely to
produce tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall over portions of the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands,
through today. The system is expected be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late
Saturday where a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect.
2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is
anticipated while it moves northwestward over the western Gulf of Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how
strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast. Interests in
that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0900Z 15.4N 83.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 16.3N 84.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 17.7N 85.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 19.2N 86.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 20.7N 87.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 23/1800Z 22.5N 88.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 24/0600Z 24.5N 90.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 28.1N 93.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 30.4N 94.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND