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16-09-2020, 15:46   #46
Thelonious Monk
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Yep, my brother lives in Malta, they had more rain 2 days ago than they normally get in 2 months. Mad to think they get storms at this time of year.
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17-09-2020, 19:50   #47
hatrickpatrick
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This is starting to look like it could be serious for Greece, especially when you combine the novelty and thus unpreparedness for storms like this, and the ongoing renewed COVID wave Greece is currently grappling with.

Given how often this has happened in the Mediterranean in recent years, I'm starting to wonder if this needs to be considered a regular annual thing for people to prepare for the way the Atlantic Hurricane Season is. I know one can't talk about climate change with only a few years as a reference point, but IIRC the last four years have all featured a medicane-type storm which is very much unprecedented, it's difficult not to consider that this may be something which is here to stay at least as long as the AMO remains in positive territory.
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17-09-2020, 21:53   #48
Gaoth Laidir
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This is starting to look like it could be serious for Greece, especially when you combine the novelty and thus unpreparedness for storms like this, and the ongoing renewed COVID wave Greece is currently grappling with.

Given how often this has happened in the Mediterranean in recent years, I'm starting to wonder if this needs to be considered a regular annual thing for people to prepare for the way the Atlantic Hurricane Season is. I know one can't talk about climate change with only a few years as a reference point, but IIRC the last four years have all featured a medicane-type storm which is very much unprecedented, it's difficult not to consider that this may be something which is here to stay at least as long as the AMO remains in positive territory.
There was no increasing trend in occurrence over the 60-year period analysed by Cavicchia et al (2013). The 60s, 70s and 80s all saw storms in a number of consecutive years. With Twitter and now the EMMC formed it's become a lot more discussed topic, but it's always been there.
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17-09-2020, 23:28   #49
hatrickpatrick
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There was no increasing trend in occurrence over the 60-year period analysed by Cavicchia et al (2013). The 60s, 70s and 80s all saw storms in a number of consecutive years. With Twitter and now the EMMC formed it's become a lot more discussed topic, but it's always been there.
This is particularly interesting to me as these decades were all during negative AMO phases. I don't know if there's a shared correlation between North Atlantic SSTs and Mediterranean SSTs, but if there is, it's certainly interesting that these systems still formed with relative frequency during a period of suppressed North Atlantic SSTs.
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18-09-2020, 00:06   #50
Danno
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...Given how often this has happened in the Mediterranean in recent years, I'm starting to wonder if this needs to be considered a regular annual thing for people to prepare for the way the Atlantic Hurricane Season is...
The average is for 1.57 storms per year in the period 1948-2011. Is there any information or related data that shows this average has been substantially breached in the last 8 or 9 years?

Last edited by Danno; 18-09-2020 at 00:10.
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18-09-2020, 00:16   #51
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The average is for 1.57 storms per year in the period 1948-2011. Is there any information or related data that shows this average has been substantially breached in the last 8 or 9 years?
The problem is you'd need to break down the average by phase of the AMO, so you'd need, roughly speaking, the average for the periods 1897-1927 and 1965-1995 (the most recent cold phases) to compare with the average for the periods 1928-1964, and 1995-present. That's again assuming the AMO has an impact on Mediterranean temperatures, which is something I'm unsure of but will dig around a bit tomorrow to find out - I suspect there would definitely be a correlation between the two, as the AMO isn't just influenced by ocean currents but by long term atmospheric pressure setups as well, which would most likely be large-scale enough to have at least some influence in the Med.
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18-09-2020, 00:25   #52
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This is starting to look like it could be serious for Greece, especially when you combine the novelty and thus unpreparedness for storms like this, and the ongoing renewed COVID wave Greece is currently grappling with.

Given how often this has happened in the Mediterranean in recent years, I'm starting to wonder if this needs to be considered a regular annual thing for people to prepare for the way the Atlantic Hurricane Season is. I know one can't talk about climate change with only a few years as a reference point, but IIRC the last four years have all featured a medicane-type storm which is very much unprecedented, it's difficult not to consider that this may be something which is here to stay at least as long as the AMO remains in positive territory.
Looks like it's stalling over western Greece for a good 24-48hrs and dump a really serious amount of rain. Anything up to 370mm over 48h.


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18-09-2020, 00:30   #53
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The problem is you'd need to break down the average by phase of the AMO, so you'd need, roughly speaking, the average for the periods 1897-1927 and 1965-1995 (the most recent cold phases) to compare with the average for the periods 1928-1964, and 1995-present. That's again assuming the AMO has an impact on Mediterranean temperatures, which is something I'm unsure of but will dig around a bit tomorrow to find out - I suspect there would definitely be a correlation between the two, as the AMO isn't just influenced by ocean currents but by long term atmospheric pressure setups as well, which would most likely be large-scale enough to have at least some influence in the Med.
There may or may not be a link, but regardless - there are still on average 1.57 storms per year which should inform the average Mediterranean coastal resident that these are not rare, but rather occasional.
I posted the above in response to your ponderings if they should consider these a regular annual thing - which is a position they should by default hold.
Just like in Ireland we expect and usually get a few snow days almost every year, these storms to them are akin to snow days for us.
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18-09-2020, 16:30   #54
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https://twitter.com/MetEireann/statu...517436929?s=20
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19-09-2020, 21:30   #55
Gaoth Laidir
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It made landfall yesterday morning on the island of Kefalhnia, with a gust to 111 kph. Rainfall totals of around 50 mm.

The UKMO got the central pressure very wrong in their 06Z analysis, marking it as only 1001 hPa when Kefalhnia airport was reporting 994 hPa.

METAR LGKF 180550Z 31036G50KT 1000 +TSRA SCT005 FEW011CB OVC012 21/20 Q0994=







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