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06-09-2020, 07:56   #5746
M.T. Cranium
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Sunday, 6 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 6 to 12 September 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will average about half of normal in some parts of the north, to near 10 per cent in the south.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will see a bit of drizzle lingering in cloudy skies and westerly winds, then some clearing should develop later this morning from west to east, but followed by another increase in cloud by evening. Highs 17 to 19 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with drizzle turning to light or even moderate rain in some parts of north Connacht and west Ulster. It may stay dry in some parts of the south and east. Rather mild and humid with lows 13 to 15 C.

MONDAY will be cloudy with the northern rain or drizzle moving east and ending. Skies may begin to clear partially by mid-day to reveal some warm hazy sunshine in some places. Highs 19 to 22 C.

TUESDAY will be breezy and quite mild to warm with occasional drizzle near north and west coasts, some sunny breaks in south and east, winds increasing to southwest 40-60 km/hr, lows near 14 C and highs near 20 C.

WEDNESDAY will see a bit of rain in the early morning, gusty westerly winds, then clearing during the day, with some afternoon sunshine, lows near 13 C and highs near 18 C.

THURSDAY will be rather warm and cloudy with rain developing late in the day, lows near 13 C and highs near 20 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will become unsettled with intervals of light rain, somewhat cooler temperatures near 17 C.

The further outlook is for unsettled to stormy conditions at times, with strong lows likely to be passing near Ireland at times in the week following next weekend.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny, hazy and very warm to hot, with a high near 30 C. It has cooled off somewhat since sunset, around 15 C at midnight.
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07-09-2020, 07:19   #5747
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Monday, 7 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 September 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 2 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will be somewhat variable from county to county with events of short duration and limited extent, sometimes rather intense locally, but the overall trend is likely to be below normal in totals.
-- Sunshine will average 75 per cent of normal with fairly frequent cloud cover.


FORECASTS

TODAY some heavy rain showers will move through the southeast this morning, affecting mainly Carlow, Kilkenny and Wexford as well as parts of south Wicklow. Local rainfalls of 10-20 mm are possible with brief flooding of roads in a few spots. Otherwise most of the country is entering a cloudy but warm air mass of subtropical origins, with isolated showers or patchy drizzle mainly over coasts and hills. Some sun may break through the overcast raising temperatures over the general 19-22 C range expected under the cloud. Those instances may be oppressively warm in a few parts of the inland south and midlands later.

TONIGHT will continue mostly cloudy with clear breaks and a muggy feel, lows only falling to the 13 to 15 C range.

TUESDAY will see this weather regime continue with similar conditions, mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals, scattered outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, and warm highs 19 to 22 C.

WEDNESDAY will see some early morning showers and a cold frontal passage that may produce some briefly gusty westerly winds, then the morning will become less warm and humid with clouds gradually breaking to partly cloudy skies by afternoon, morning lows near 12 C and afternoon highs near 18 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy and warm with highs near 21 C. Southwest winds will increase late in the day and rain will arrive.

FRIDAY will be cloudy with occasional light rain and somewhat cooler temperatures with highs around 16 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers and highs near 18 C.

SUNDAY will be warm and humid with highs 21 to 24 C.

The first part of next week seems likely to stay rather warm as fronts push slowly towards Ireland from the Atlantic and join up with disturbances moving north from Biscay. This could lead to a heavy or thundery outbreak of rain by about Tuesday of next week, after which a slow cooling trend is likely.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny, hazy and hot with highs near 32 C. The upper level ridge supporting this heat (and intense heat south of the border bringing high wildfire hazards to the western U.S.) will briefly shift out into the Pacific and allow cooler air to flow in from the northeast. That should arrive soon and last about two days, then the heat dome (as we call our version of the Spanish plume) will rebuild and it will turn hot again here for about a week.
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08-09-2020, 08:07   #5748
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Tuesday, 8 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 Sept 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average 75 per cent of normal but could reach closer to normal in a few parts of east and inland south.


FORECASTS

TODAY will see the warm, humid regime continue with mostly cloudy skies but with a few brighter intervals, these more prevalent in the south and east, and also scattered outbreaks of light rain or drizzle more likely in the west and north (not much accumulation trace to 2 mm), and warm highs 19 to 22 C. It could reach 23 or 24 if any sustained sunny intervals were to develop anywhere, this air mass is actually capable of producing even higher temperatures but an inversion is keeping the potential warmth from mixing fully through the lower atmosphere.

TONIGHT a cold front will sweep through, there could be some brief heavy or squally showers, locally heavy rainfalls are possible although generally it will only be around 3 to 5 mm for most, then a fresher and less humid air mass will replace this current one, and temperatures will fall gradually to sunrise readings near 12 C. Winds will veer from southwest to west-northwest after midnight in the 40-60 km/hr range with some higher gusts possible especially over higher terrain near the Atlantic coasts.

WEDNESDAY will see cloudy skies gradually clearing through late morning and early afternoon and there could be clear skies at times by evening. Moderate west to northwest winds at times, highs 16 to 18 C. Fairly cool overnight with lows 3 to 6 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy and warm with lows 3 to 6 C, and highs 17 to 21 C. Southwest winds will increase late in the day and rain will arrive.

FRIDAY will be cloudy with occasional light rain and somewhat cooler temperatures with highs around 16 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers and highs near 18 C.

SUNDAY will be warm and humid with highs 19 to 22 C. Increasing cloud with rain at times in the west and north, becoming quite windy also.

MONDAY and possibly several following days will likely stay quite warm as the cold front pushing close to Ireland on Sunday evening may then ripple back north as a warm front and weaken, leaving Ireland in a warm southerly flow for several days ahead of slowly advancing frontal systems. Highs could be into the low 20s with isolated mid-20s.

This warm regime next week is likely to lead to a more active period but with rather unpredictable tropical systems on the move now (two new named storms in the southern and eastern Atlantic) their possible impact on eventual outcomes will be difficult for the models to work out (which is a nice way of saying they won't work it out, I suppose).

Now as to this tropical season which has just seen its 17th named storm ten days earlier than the previous record pace set in 2005, the eventual most active season with 28, it has to be noted that only five so far have been hurricanes which is not that impressive for any recent year let alone one with 17 named storms. And only one has been a major (Laura), which is no more than average for halfway through a season. The practice of naming storms includes omission of Q, U, X, Y and Z, so that after 21 storms we would reach the W name and then move on to the Greek alphabet as we did in 2005 (no other season made it that far, and the second most active year, 1933, was in an era before storms were named anyway, since naming began, 19 is second highest). The 2005 list was augmented after the year ended with an added storm called the "Azores hurricane" placed between Stan and Tammy. This year, we have reached the R storm (Rene) ten days earlier than 2005 produced Rita, but after our S storm, the T storm will be compared to the Azores hurricane for timing, and our V storm will be compared with Tammy of 2005. Then if we get to a W storm, that one will be compared to Vince of 2005, and if we need to use the Greek alphabet, the first storm (Alpha) will actually be comparable to Wilma of 2005 in terms of being the 22nd named storm. In late 2005 there were six more storms getting named from the Greek alphabet. I have to wonder if we will manage to equal that record, or what the plan is if they run out of Greek letters too.

My local weather on Monday (which was Labour Day here) was partly cloudy, breezy and considerably cooler at 18 C, and by this evening it was clear and calm with a frosty feel (granted we are up in the mountains here). All of this has led to the formation of a powerful storm system over Colorado which is rapidly developing tonight. There is already heavy wet snow in higher parts of Wyoming and this will spread into the Rockies of Colorado. It will likely be a cold rain around Denver but mixing with snow especially to the west of that city. Very strong northeast winds have caused numerous problems throughout the western U.S. and southern B.C. with power lines down in places, blowing dust closing highways, and any forest fires rapidly spreading. This regime has now spread into most of Nevada and Utah but heat-baked California will not get the colder northeast winds, instead this will lead to hot "Santa Ana" winds which is the last thing they need given the widespread forest and rangeland fires already underway there. I am fearful of a major disaster developing along the lines of the 2018 Paradise event somewhere with these stronger winds setting in. Not hearing much about wildfires in the Great Basin states or northern Arizona but if they have any those will also be accelerating with these winds (which have gusted to 100 km/hr in places).
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08-09-2020, 13:57   #5749
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
Tuesday, 8 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


Now as to this tropical season which has just seen its 17th named storm ten days earlier than the previous record pace set in 2005, the eventual most active season with 28, it has to be noted that only five so far have been hurricanes which is not that impressive for any recent year let alone one with 17 named storms. And only one has been a major (Laura), which is no more than average for halfway through a season. The practice of naming storms includes omission of Q, U, X, Y and Z, so that after 21 storms we would reach the W name and then move on to the Greek alphabet as we did in 2005 (no other season made it that far, and the second most active year, 1933, was in an era before storms were named anyway, since naming began, 19 is second highest). The 2005 list was augmented after the year ended with an added storm called the "Azores hurricane" placed between Stan and Tammy. This year, we have reached the R storm (Rene) ten days earlier than 2005 produced Rita, but after our S storm, the T storm will be compared to the Azores hurricane for timing, and our V storm will be compared with Tammy of 2005. Then if we get to a W storm, that one will be compared to Vince of 2005, and if we need to use the Greek alphabet, the first storm (Alpha) will actually be comparable to Wilma of 2005 in terms of being the 22nd named storm. In late 2005 there were six more storms getting named from the Greek alphabet. I have to wonder if we will manage to equal that record, or what the plan is if they run out of Greek letters too.
I could read this all day long. As always thanks for your forecasts - KUTGW!
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08-09-2020, 16:36   #5750
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Could update by mentioning that both Paulette (sorry I think I called her Philippe oops) and Rene are now forecast to become minimal hurricanes later this week so the count might reach 17/7/1. Of all the seasons that reached 18 named storms, only last year's 18/6/3 finish resembles what we might get this year (in terms of a ratio of hurricanes to named storms), most of the others managed at least 10 hurricanes and four or five majors. 2005 had a final count of 28/15/7.
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09-09-2020, 07:45   #5751
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Wednesday, 9 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 9 to 15 Sept 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 2 deg above normal values, which would be around 18-19 C daytime and 8-9 C overnight, so more like low 20s at times, and lows in the 10-15 C range.
-- Rainfall will average about 50 to 75 per cent of normal, but could be closer to normal in the far north, and closer to just 25 per cent in the south.
-- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal values to near average in the east.


FORECASTS

TODAY will have some sunny intervals especially in the south and east, but more cloud lingering in northwest and most of Ulster. Highs will reach 20 C in parts of the east and south, more like 17 C further north.

TONIGHT will bring some clear intervals, and lows of 6 to 9 C.

THURSDAY will see gradually increasing cloud except for steadily overcast northern counties, and rain will arrive towards evening with freshening southwest winds to 40 km/hr. Highs 17 to 20 C.

FRIDAY will be mostly cloudy with occasional light rain, 3 to 5 mm expected, and moderate southwest to west winds of 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs 15 to 17 C.

SATURDAY will become less showery but cloud may linger with just a few brighter intervals, a little warmer and more humid by afternoon, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

SUNDAY will be quite warm and muggy with rain developing for parts of the west and north, more likely to stay dry further south with perhaps a few brighter spells, lows near 14 C and highs near 20 C.

From MONDAY to WEDNESDAY a slow battle will develop between frontal systems massing to the west and south, and the high pressure that has been to our south, but by then building up further north to promote more of an easterly wind flow. That can be reasonably warm and dry if the moisture from these systems failed to push in, but some probably will across a few parts of the south and west. Highs will be in the low 20s in some parts of the country to around 18 C in any rainfall.

Although that scenario may just fizzle out eventually, stronger fronts will then begin to develop and have more success pushing east, eventually it could get quite stormy some time towards late September.

There are a couple of tropical storms that could each become a weak hurricane in the east-central Atlantic, but signs of a stronger system to come when a wave moves out of west Africa later this week. So while Paulette and Rene may not have that much impact on weather north of the subtropics, this future storm could be one that does the grand tour of the North Atlantic, details obviously to be determined.

My local weather on Tuesday started out record cold with temperatures around 1 C at sunrise, then under clear but increasingly hazy skies (forest fire smoke flowing in from across the border) it recovered to 20 C, and we will resume the interrupted heat wave later today. Strong winds pushed down into the Great Basin states, Las Vegas had a nasty wake-up from 50 mph winds that blew down trees and closed campgrounds on nearby Lake Mead, meanwhile some strong wind gusts hit forest fires in northeast California and intensified those, but I think the winds will soon die out so hopefully it won't get too much out of control, fortunately quite some distance from larger towns. Another fire complex near Mono Lake in east central California has been causing numerous helicopter rescues of stranded campers at the end of a canyon with no other escape. It appeared that people were being forced into the water of a rather small lake to avoid getting scorched, before the help arrived.
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10-09-2020, 07:37   #5752
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Thursday, 10 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for week of 10 to 16 Sept 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, could touch 100 per cent in south if locally heavy rains develop there around Monday.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal also, rather cloudy in general despite the warmth.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with some sunny or at least brighter intervals in the inland south and Leinster. Highs will reach about 16 or 17 C under persistent cloud, to 20 C where the sun breaks through. Rain should hold off until evening for most regions but could start in the afternoon in Atlantic counties.

TONIGHT will be overcast, breezy and mild with occasional light rain, 1 to 3 mm, lows of about 12 C.

FRIDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, with intervals of light rain tapering to showers, moderate southwest winds and highs 16 to 18 C.

SATURDAY will become rather windy especially north of the Shannon estuary to Connacht and west Ulster. There, winds will reach southwest 70-100 km/hr with rain at times. In other parts of the country especially the southeast, while mostly cloudy, generally dry with lows 10 to 13 C, highs 18 to 20 C, winds more moderate (southwest 40 to 70 km/hr). Rain could become rather heavy late Saturday then will begin to taper off to drizzle by Sunday morning.

SUNDAY will be a warm, humid day with some rain at times mainly in the western and northern counties. Lows of about 14 C and highs near 21 C.

MONDAY will continue warm, some rain will push into western counties and a more energetic pulse might hit the south coastal counties later. Inland and towards the north it will become quite warm with highs reaching low 20s, temperatures in the rain will be closer to 18 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will continue unsettled and rather warm with southeasterly breezes and some rain at times, highs near 20 C.

The further outlook calls for a very gradual cooling trend as the Atlantic gradually pushes back through this temporary block and eventually becomes quite active. There are slight risks of a tropical storm remnant hitting at some point, nothing very definite on that yet. After Paulette and Rene expire in about a week (Rene is more likely to have some indirect impacts near Ireland), a more vigorous tropical storm is very likely across the tropical Atlantic into the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico or Bahamas to east coast of the U.S., details on this are sketchy now, but a recent model run showed a high impact hurricane forming in the vicinity of western Cuba and hitting Florida two weeks from now. Something to keep an eye on.

My local weather stayed sunny, hazy from smoke, and it became hot again on Wednesday with a return to near 30 C temperatures. It has cooled back down to around 15 C at 11:30 pm local time. Mars is getting brighter each week as we approach the overtaking point known as opposition this autumn. To my eye it's now a bit brighter than Jupiter. Later on (here) I should have a good view of the moon and Venus rising, if I make it that far into the night.
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11-09-2020, 07:35   #5753
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Friday, 11 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 Sept 2020

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will vary from 150% of normal in some parts of the north, to only 25-50 per cent of normal near the south coast and in parts of Leinster. Some other areas such as Munster, the midlands and Ulster may work out closer to normal values.
-- Sunshine will be fortunate to break the 50% barrier, it may do so in parts of the south and east.


FORECASTS

TODAY will continue mostly cloudy with outbreaks of moderate or heavy rain across parts of northern Connacht into west Ulster. Some localized flood potential exists around Westport to Sligo, where 20-40 mm could fall, but other areas will see more like 10-20 mm. Further south, the rain will be more showery and may range from 5 to 15 mm. Moderate southwest winds and highs 16 to 19 C.

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy with a bit of rain or drizzle at times, lows near 12 C.

SATURDAY will be windy and in parts of the north quite wet and blustery, with 20-40 mm rainfall potential in north Connacht and west Ulster (again), flood risk is moderate in some cases. Again further south, not as much rain with some nearly dry conditions in the south, southeast and east. Winds increasing to southwest 50-80 km/hr with higher gusts at times near Atlantic coasts. Highs 18-20 C.

SUNDAY will become warmer and quite humid with some residual shower activity in the north, but brighter intervals may develop by afternoon, lows near 14 C and highs near 22 C.

MONDAY is also looking quite warm now with just a chance of rain brushing the south and west coasts, some sunshine elsewhere, lows near 15 C and highs 21 to 24 C.

The rest of next week will likely stay rather warm, with some outbreaks of light rain, until about Thursday when rain will become heavier and temperatures will gradually fall back into the mid-teens.

My local weather was sunny, hazy and very warm with a high near 28 C.
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12-09-2020, 06:23   #5754
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Saturday, 12 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 September 2020

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, to near average in the far north.
-- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals mainly in the south and east. There will be outbreaks of light, showery rain in most areas, but not very frequent except in parts of north Connacht and west Ulster where 5-15 mm could accumulate eventually. The heaviest rain now appears to be tracking a bit further north and may only skim by a few parts of Donegal on its way to Scotland tonight. Winds will increase to southwest 50 to 70 km/hr in exposed coastal areas, but only about 30 to 50 km/hr inland over much of the country. Highs 18 to 21 C.

TONIGHT will see a few more showers and it will remain very mild with lows 12 to 15 C.

SUNDAY will be warm and humid with a few sunny breaks mainly in the south and east. Rain will be generally confined to a few parts of the northwest and Ulster, but even there may not amount to much. Highs 19 to 22 C.

MONDAY will continue quite warm and muggy with lows near 15 C and highs near 22 C. Some rain may edge into the south coast and parts of the west.

TUESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy and warm with a few showers, lows near 15 C and highs near 22 C.

The OUTLOOK for the rest of the week is for a slow downward trend in temperatures as winds turn from southeast to northeast, but it won't likely drop much below seasonal normals at any point, as the cooler air masses will still have their origin in latitudes similar to Ireland further east. Also, hurricane (by then) Paulette is expected to track from near Bermuda on Monday to southern Greenland and this will anchor a ridge of high pressure over the eastern Atlantic. If that scenario changed to a more aggressive track for the hurricane, it might also result in warmer weather returning later in the week.

My local weather on Friday was hazy and hot with a high of about 31 C. The tropical regions are very active, Paulette now looks stronger than expected earlier, while Rene looks weak and is probably not going to be a hurricane. A new tropical disturbance near the Bahamas threatens south Florida and later the eastern Gulf of Mexico with tropical storm conditions. And waves moving out of Africa will form the basis for two more systems to watch, one of which looks quite likely to reach hurricane strength and follow Paulette although a bit closer to the east coast of the U.S. and past Newfoundland in about ten days' time.
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13-09-2020, 07:58   #5755
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Sunday, 13 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 13 to 19 September 2020

-- Temperatures will average 3 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 10 to 50 per cent of normal values (not counting earlier rain overnight).
-- Sunshine will improve gradually and check in near or slightly above normal by end of the week.


FORECASTS

TODAY will become partly cloudy and even sunny at times in a few locations, with rather blustery southwest winds continuing near Atlantic coasts and some other well exposed locations, although these breezes will be more moderate in much of the south and east. Quite warm with highs reaching about 23 C in central, eastern and inland southern counties, near 20 C further north and closer to south and west coast.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to clear and mild, with lows 12 to 15 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny at times, hazy and quite warm. There is a slight chance of brief outbreaks of light rain in a few parts of the southwest, but these are not expected to be very prolonged or heavy. Highs will reach 19 to 24 C, warmest values midlands to inland northwest due to a turn in winds to south-southeast.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny at times, with lows near 13 C and highs 19 to 23 C.

WEDNESDAY will also be partly cloudy to sunny with lows near 12 C and highs 18 to 22 C.

After this warm spell, just a gradual shift to somewhat more average mid-September temperatures as the surface flow turns a bit more northeasterly due to swelling up of high pressure to the west of Ireland mid-week. This may drop temperatures in coastal Leinster more than other places, which could remain fairly warm. The high will probably (no guarantees) keep Hurricane Paulette well to the west of Ireland after it tangles with Bermuda over the next day or so.

Meanwhile Rene has fizzled out and with a non-tropical low west of Ireland drifting south towards where it was trying to head, Rene has no support for further development and will likely be gone soon. TD 19 turned into "Sally" in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and that could become a hurricane before landfall near Mobile Bay around Gulfport MS. Sally is twenty days ahead of the record pace of 2005 (Stan in that year) but right after Stan came the Azores hurricane and Tammy, so this twenty day gap will narrow, first when TD 20 (designated earlier in the east-central tropical Atlantic) likely becomes Teddy in a few days, then we would be waiting a while for another named storm which will be Vicky. Wilfred would be the last conventionally named storm of 2020, then it would be on to the Greek alphabet (six letters were needed in 2005, we'll see if we even get into that in 2020). I think the odds are not great that 2020 will beat 2005 eventually because that season kept on producing well into Nov-Dec, but we should comfortably displace 1933 (20 storms) from second place. No names were given to storms then, so that's just the number of tropical storms or in eleven cases hurricanes that formed that year.

My local weather turned rather ugly on Saturday with thick layers of smoke drifting in from the massive fires in the western states. We partially avoided this by spending the day further north where it was hazy but not quite as nasty as we found it to be here upon return (actually half way back it was looking similar, a dim red then later pink sun in an otherwise brownish-grey sky, but quite hot due to earlier sunshine, about 29 C). We may be in and out of these thicker smoke layers for several days, otherwise the weather is clear above the smoke layers. Much smaller fires are burning near some local mountains too, but their smoke alone would just be nuisance within a few kilometers, whereas this larger smoke haze is originating from Oregon and California as well as nearby Washington. At least we got through most of the season without smoke problems this year, unlike several recent years where much longer intervals were marred by smoke.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 13-09-2020 at 08:01.
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14-09-2020, 07:34   #5756
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Monday, 14 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 14 to 20 September, 2020

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average as little as 10 per cent of normal in parts of the east and southeast, up to perhaps half of normal values further west. Most of this small rainfall would come on Tuesday.
-- Sunshine will average near normal to 25 per cent above normal, again sunnier further east.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with some sunny intervals although the sunshine may be dimmed by high cloud layers. Rather warm especially inland and east. Highs 19 to 23 C. Some light rain could develop at times in parts of the northwest, amounts only 1-3 mm.

TONIGHT will be hazy and mild with a few spots of rain in parts of the west and north. Lows around 12 to 15 C.

TUESDAY will bring variable amounts of cloud, some sunny breaks, and isolated showers. Many places will remain dry. Highs 19 to 23 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny, and continuing rather warm. Lows 10 to 13 C and highs 18 to 22 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will have sunny intervals but will turn slightly cooler especially in Leinster due to the onset of east to northeast breezes. Lows near 8 C and highs near 19 C west, 16 C east.

The further outlook is for settled, at times sunny weather to continue as high pressure will remain close to Britain and Ireland. Temperatures will be not quite as warm as this week but still near or above average. There will be slight risks of tropical weather systems breaking down this block but that is not clearly indicated at this point.

The tropical situation has not changed much since my last forecast, Sally is slowly gaining strength and will hit just west of Mobile Bay late tonight. Paulette is tangling with Bermuda today, Rene is very close to extinct, and T.D. 20 has not yet become a tropical storm. Another potential storm now exists to its northeast, so it's not certain that T.D. 20 would become Teddy, the other one might gain that name, leaving T.D. to take the next name, Vicky. After that, it wouild be Wilfred at some unknown future date and possibly into the Greek alphabet again for the second time since 2005.

My local weather was very hazy from forest fire smoke layers, the sun was dimly visible but unable to heat up the air as much as it did for several recent days, so the high stalled out near 23 C. It is unpleasant to be outdoors with this much smoke and it adds another health risk to the vulnerable (along with COVID). Apparently the situation is somewhat improved in the fire zones but it will take days if not weeks to ventilate this smoky stagnant air mass.
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15-09-2020, 08:06   #5757
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Tuesday, 15 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 15 to 21 September

-- Temperatures will average 2 deg above normal with a gradual decrease through the interval, close to normal values by the end of the week.
-- Rainfall will average 10 to 20 per cent of normal from a few showers today to Thursday, fairly dry conditions expected later in the week and well into the following week also.
-- Sunshine will average near normal to 25 per cent above normal in a few spots.


FORECASTS

TODAY will start out rather cloudy in the east with light showers moving slowly away from east Ulster and the east coast of Leinster. Later on, with mainly sunny but hazy skies dominating in central and eastern counties, another area of cloud may develop further west with light showers from that also. Amounts in all cases are not likely to exceed 2 mm in many locations. Highs 22 to 25 C for most, 18 to 22 C near some coasts.

TONIGHT will have hazy and partly cloudy skies, lows near 10 C, with some dense local fog patches forming.

WEDNESDAY will be cloudy with sunny intervals in most places, isolated showers mainly inland western counties. Still rather warm although a cooling easterly breeze setting in along east coast and into much of Ulster. Highs will reach 18 to 23 C in most areas, 15 to 18 C near east coast and in east Ulster.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with scattered light showers, not much accumulation expected. Lows near 11 C and highs near 19 C.

FRIDAY and the WEEKEND will likely be more sunny than previous days with only slight chances of isolated showers, moderate east winds at times, lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C on average, perhaps near 20 in parts of the west but as cool as 14 C near east coast.

NEXT WEEK will continue to be influenced by the blocking high until perhaps the following weekend, and a dry spell may continue to near the end of the month.

In the busy tropical theatre, Sally is slowly approaching a landfall northeast of New Orleans, Paulette is slowly pulling away from storm-battered Bermuda, Teddy continues a gradual intensification moving past northern South America now, and Vicky has likely peaked well off to the southwest of the Cabo Verde islands at 50 knots. There is a slight chance that the Atlantic low west of Ireland, slowly drifting south, will become a subtropical storm west of Portugal in a few days' time. It would then probably perform a slow loop back towards southern Biscay marine areas and perhaps spread a bit of cloud towards the south coast of Ireland next week. Teddy is expected to become a powerful hurricane in a few days' time, move east of Bermuda and towards the central Atlantic. While Paulette seems unable to shift the blocking high, Teddy might be more successful with the help of another tropical storm following behind, that one either Wilfred or Alpha depending on what happens elsewhere in the Atlantic basin in the next week to ten days. Remnants of Teddy and/or the following storm could bring an end to the dry spell and light winds associated with blocking high pressure although nothing very drastic is suggested on the long-range maps so far.

My local weather has remained very hazy from forest fire smoke, and that is suppressing temperatures considerably despite no change in air mass, now we're struggling to reach 20 C in the daytime with a weak sun barely casting shadows at mid-day. I checked various reports and this temperature decrease is a feature of the regional weather pattern with many places now below average despite uppers that could support hot weather.
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16-09-2020, 07:20   #5758
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Wednesday, 16 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 16 to 22 Sept 2020

-- Temperatures will average 2 deg above normal values, although closer to average later in the weekly interval.
-- Rainfall will average close to zero with many places largely dry, 10 per cent of normal in a few spots.
-- Sunshine will increase through the period and could be 25 to 50 per cent above normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny, hazy and rather warm in many places, with more cloud likely in parts of west Munster where one or two light showers could develop by afternoon. Light east winds will bring a slight cooling to the east coast but this won't penetrate very far inland today. Highs generally 20 to 24 C, somewhat cooler under cloud or in coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT will continue dry and clear with fog patches developing. Lows 8 to 11 C.

THURSDAY will be mostly sunny with light to moderate east winds, somewhat more extensive east coast sea breeze cooling is likely, but highs inland 20 to 23 C.

FRIDAY to about MONDAY will continue very similar although with a gradual downward trend in daytime highs and overnight lows, and also more significant risks of dense fog formation with some fog persisting a few hours after sunrise in valleys inland. Highs will be drifting slowly down towards the 16 to 19 C range, and overnight lows could eventually turn rather chilly, 2 to 6 C.

The further outlook is rather uncertain with the blocking pattern showing signs of breaking down around Tuesday 22nd or Wednesday 23rd, with a return to more mobile weather patterns, some rain at times, and the risk of tropical remnants reaching Ireland.

Sally has recently strengthened on a slow approach to landfall now expected to be east of Mobile Bay. Sally's remnants will emerge back into the Atlantic around this coming weekend but no redevelopment is expected. Paulette has moved on from Bermuda and will soon get trapped in a cut-off low situated to the west of the Azores. It will slowly move through that zone trying to find some way through the block. Teddy is expected to follow a fairly similar track and may hit Bermuda in about a week, then will batter down the block and pass to the north of Ireland and Scotland. In a new twist, that allows weak remnants of Paulette to make a final push for Europe, although the remnants would be weak and disorganized. Vicky meanwhile has a day or two left before running out of friendly upper support in the eastern Atlantic.

My local weather improved slightly with the smoke layers thinning out enough to reveal a watery blue-grey hazy sky with highs reaching about 25 C with the more direct sunlight. Sally will make a landfall in northwest Florida near Pensacola to Fort Walton Beach, around noon local time (1800h in Ireland). The forward speed is so slow that hurricane intensity winds and rain will be lashing that region for a total of 2-3 days. Some huge rainfall totals are likely to materialize in a poorly drained swampy region, and storm surges will add to coastal flooding problems.
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17-09-2020, 08:12   #5759
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Thursday, 17 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 17 of 23 September

-- This fine spell of weather will last about another week and seems likely to break down near the end of this weekly interval. Therefore there would be some uncertainty about rainfall since any potential for it only exists near the end of the week. The best estimate is that the week will average 2 deg above normal in temperatures, remain dry to very near the end, and that sunshine will be 25 to 50 per cent above normal values as cloud continues to decrease under the ridge.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly sunny and quite warm except near some eastern coasts where a moderate easterly wind will bring a cooling sea breeze some 10-15 kms inland with smaller effects to about 50 kms inland. Highs of about 23 or 24 C are likely in central and western counties, although with local sea breezes on all coasts providing some cooling effects there as well. Then in eastern regions the highs will be in the range of 18 to 22 C, lowest near shorelines.

TONIGHT will be clear to partly cloudy at times, with locally dense fog patches forming after midnight. Lows 7 to 10.

FRIDAY will be mostly sunny and warm again, with similar temperatures to today, possibly on average about one degree lower in all cases, as this air mass will slowly moderate towards more normal temperatures.

The WEEKEND and MONDAY will see a continuation of this trend with partly cloudy to sunny weather both days, fairly light east to southeast winds but variable around coasts in general, and overnight lows 4 to 8 C with daytime highs 16 to 20 C. Later Monday, there could be some increasing cloud over much of the west and north with the slow approach of frontal systems breaking into the blocking regime.

As it looks now, the middle of next week will see a slow breakdown of the dry spell with increasing amounts of cloud and some rain edging into western and northern counties but not making much progress for several days. Temperatures will likely be just slightly above average by then, daytime highs 15 to 19 C.

Towards the end of next week, a more decisive change in the pattern will come about as remnants of Hurricane Teddy, possibly pulling in remnants of former hurricane Paulette from its position south of the Azores by then, creates a stronger wind gradient and spreads at least some rain across most of the country. Details remain sketchy, but there is no strong indication of a direct hit of a well-organized storm, more like the dying phases of a disorganized widespread breakdown of the systems over the eastern third of the Atlantic.

Worth noting also that a "medicane" has formed east of Sicily and will drift slowly east possibly affecting parts of western Greece in a few days. Remnants of Sally are drenching the inland southeastern U.S. and a bit of that energy will also be rippling into the Atlantic this weekend, Sally is not expected to redevelop to any extent but a frontal wave will race towards Iceland and start to position the front for later action across western Europe.

My local weather continues to see a mixture of hot, dry influences from the upper pattern, and cooler misty effects from smoke layers drifting along in the lower levels of the atmosphere, so we have been getting alternating spells of hazy sunshine and almost a fog with water droplets condensing out, highs during the sunnier intervals reaching mid to high 20s, but temperatures fluctuating with the amount of smoke. Rather strange weather to say the least. The source fires are somewhat diminished (mainly in Oregon now) but not yet under control entirely.

Today at 1101h UTC (1201 IST) marks the new moon which will bring on the start of the Jewish holiday Rosh Hashanah.
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18-09-2020, 07:42   #5760
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Friday, 18 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 18 to 24 September 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 1 deg above normal with a decreasing trend that may take us below average by the end of this weekly interval.
-- Rainfall will be about half of normal values, much of it will occur around Tuesday.
-- Sunshine will be near normal to 25 per cent above normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will feature plenty of sunshine once any fog patches dissipate. Moderate east winds at times will cool off the east coast by several degrees, highs in central and inland south, west will reach 20-23 C, but will be held down to around 17 C near the east coast and in parts of Ulster.

TONIGHT will become foggy after midnight in many areas, and this fog could be dense leading to hazardous driving conditions in some inland counties. Lows 7 to 10 C.

SATURDAY will see sunshine after the fog slowly burns off, but the fog may be a little more persistent as the air mass slowly cools down. Eventually, highs will reach 15 to 20 C, coolest near east coast.

SUNDAY will be similar with persistent morning fog, hazy sunshine later on, and a tendency for fog to form faster in the evening also. Lows 3 to 6 C and highs 14 to 19 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, still dry in most areas, but rain may edge towards the Atlantic coast. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 13 to 18 C.

TUESDAY will become rather breezy and turn slightly colder after some sporadic rain moves through, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

The OUTLOOK for mid-week towards the weekend of 26th-27th is for rather cool autumnal weather, bright spells each day with passing showers, and the risk of an interval of steady rain developing towards the weekend if the fronts are pushed back towards Ireland as warm fronts. Highs in this interval will be 12 to 15 C. Slight frosts are possible where skies clear for any length of time overnight.

There is some uncertainty about the outlook period because of powerful hurricane Teddy. Most guidance now shows Teddy heading north after hitting Bermuda late Sunday into Monday. A landfall in Nova Scotia is indicated, and the remnants of Teddy would be drawn into the west Greenland region but meanwhile some of the energy from Sally will be heading northeast ahead of Teddy and pulling the frontal systems down towards western Europe. It is conceivable that the models will backtrack and show Teddy on a different course within a day or two, and if so, that could limit or reverse the cooling signal for later next week, especially if Teddy decided he would rather go towards Scotland than Nova Scotia. Meanwhile, a fairly good chance exists that "Wilfred" will be along soon in the western Gulf of Mexico with "Alpha" next up and possibly forming from a wave that is following Teddy from the eastern tropical Atlantic. There's a slight chance of these two forming in reverse order (Wilfred being the Atlantic storm, Alpha in the Gulf) but the Gulf storm is already designated Tropical Disturbance 22. As I mentioned, Wilfred's timing must be compared to Vince of 2005 because of the extra named storm that year. So the Alpha of 2020 will be comparable as 22nd named storm recognized, to Wilma of 2005, which was a very powerful storm that formed in mid-October of that season. This year's Beta will be comparable to 2005 Alpha, etc, as far as earliest on record goes. But the name added in 2005 simply moves up the 2020 advantage in terms of first named Greek alphabet storm; this season is likely to win most of these timing battles until perhaps mid-November because 2005 pumped out three in quick succession in mid-November, if we don't follow suit, 2020 could eventually fall behind the record pace set that season.
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