FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Billcarson wrote: »

Well tonight's ECM 18Z for next weekend is showing something similar to what the pub run showed for next weekend last night . Not that I would take 240hr charts by the ecm too seriously but perhaps a chance of a cold snap of some kind before the end of this month??

That is a nice chart all right Billcarson. IF that verified it would be a very cold windy day with wintry showers streaming in from the NW, quite possible snow showers and Lightning possible too. Might even get a few troughs or a polar low or...... oh come on just give us a bit of winter fun for a few days!

A good point of reference to see if something comes of it or if it just disappears , something to keep an eye on.

The ECM began to show milder SW'lys starting over next weekend and pushed the colder weather that was originally being shown for then away further . Tonight's run is showing a wet and windy Sat into Sunday and getting increasingly cold on Sunday well into the following week, the colder air sourced from Canada, Greenalnd and possibly more Arctic sourced air as the week goes on. Currently showing the Atlantic getting a bit more lively again and has a wintry look to it, possibly back to spells of rain, sleet, hail and showers of wet snow on higher ground giving white peaks. Wintry weather atm favoring the W side of the country. Looking like there could be some windy spells also . Has a strong jet over us and more so S of us from the weekend.

After Sunday the GFS is showing the same sourced cold air getting wintry and some disturbances creating windy conditions ( GFS showing Sunday potentially very windy or stormy nearby on the latest run but long long way off ).

See will that trend stick this time.

Most stand out feature at the moment is a deepening low or Lows showing up off the W /NW on the models around next Monday. GFS stronger than the ECM at the moment . Long way to go to but good to watch the shape of this materialize over the coming days. Looking windy for a few days next week.

The colder sourced air maybe around for a few days and possibly milder again by Thurs.

Some wintry showers showing up . Very cold days and nights with wind chill a factor.

ECM along with GFS showing spells of windy wet weather next week, GFS showing the strongest at this stage.

Both models holding on to a few colder days with possibly wintry precipitation. ECM has been hinting on and off of frontal sleet and snow for next Monday later in the day, in fact the 12Z run gives an unusual large amount of rainfall next Sunday / Monday with what looks like a long trailing front and where it reaches the colder air falls as sleet and snow ( showing around 24 hrs of rainfall for many areas, turning wintry later). This would be a very complex set up needing a lot of moving parts to come together . Both main models showing Monday possibly very windy but in different ways.

Overall IMO the models for next week are showing spells of possible windy or very windy and wet weather, cold air mass and milder interludes, hints of stormy weather, very strong meandering Jet. High rainfall totals on the Western half of the country, highest furthest W.