The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

Kippure · 09-09-2014 6:29pm

Cant find ant long range winter forecasts yet.

Nothing from Joe bastardi Or Piers corbyn yet.

Brian Gaze on the weather outlook has a small piece on the up coming winter.

Anyone have any information yet on the up coming winter 2014 2015?

kingshankly · 09-09-2014 9:48pm

Kippure wrote: »

Cant find ant long range winter forecasts yet.

Nothing from Joe bastardi Or Piers corbyn yet.

Brian Gaze on the weather outlook has a small piece on the up coming winter.

Anyone have any information yet on the up coming winter 2014 2015?

Here's one it will get cooler soon 2/3 snow showers and will warm up again in April
That's as much use as the long term forecasts

maquiladora · 09-09-2014 10:43pm

Kippure wrote: »

Nothing from Joe bastardi Or Piers corbyn yet.

And long may that last!

Larbre34 · 10-09-2014 5:00pm

I just reviewed

Ken Ring's

January issued prediction for Summer '14 in D'Examiner. In fairness to him, not too shabby!

MidMan25 · 10-09-2014 5:31pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

I just reviewed
Ken Ring's
January issued prediction for Summer '14 in D'Examiner. In fairness to him, not too shabby!

Quite good in fairness! However a stopped clock is right twice a day and all that.... :pac:

lapua20grain · 11-09-2014 9:44am

this is the first foray in to the winter i have seen would be nice to get some snow but too many near misses turns me in to a cynic
http://realityweather.net/winter-2014-2015-discussion/

slingshot · 11-09-2014 2:46pm

Hi for all snow bunnies!! the states is the place to be !!
I cannot post a link but have a look at empire news .net and the science? section

MidMan25 · 11-09-2014 3:35pm

slingshot wrote: »

Hi for all snow bunnies!! the states is the place to be !!
I cannot post a link but have a look at empire news .net and the science? section

Oh dear....... :pac::pac::pac:

Missymoohaa · 11-09-2014 4:34pm

slingshot wrote: »

Hi for all snow bunnies!! the states is the place to be !!
I cannot post a link but have a look at empire news .net and the science? section

http://empirenews.net/meteorologists-predict-record-shattering-snowfalls-coming-soon-bread-milk-prices-expected-to-soar/

There ya go.

And BTW the website is a satire, so don't take it seriously guys

Lucreto · 11-09-2014 6:52pm

Missymoohaa wrote: »

http://empirenews.net/meteorologists-predict-record-shattering-snowfalls-coming-soon-bread-milk-prices-expected-to-soar/

There ya go.

And BTW the website is a satire, so don't take it seriously guys

Had a good laugh at the other headlines.

The last thing we want is another cold US. We just get stuck with storm after storm and mild temperatures.

Nabber · 11-09-2014 9:09pm

There will be plenty of snow this year. I read it in a Canadian newspaper, Canadians don't lie.

Billcarson · 11-09-2014 9:11pm

Lucreto wrote: »

Had a good laugh at the other headlines.

The last thing we want is another cold US. We just get stuck with storm after storm and mild temperatures.

Well i suppose a cold U.S doesnt necessarily mean it will be like last winter for here anyway if they were to get a very cold winter. We just dont want the same set up with the PV to be located where it was for most of last winter which gave the eastern side of the U.S such a cold snowy winter. Winter 2009/10 was a cold winter over there too as it was over here for example.

Gonzo · 12-09-2014 11:25pm

Last winter was exceptional even for Ireland in terms of mild winter muck and relentless heavy rain and stormy conditions, I highly doubt we will see a repeat this winter for the entire winter season. At the very least we are bound to see more frost. Measurable snow is always a difficult one for Ireland considering we have the best location in the world this far north for snow to be marginal or non existent, but I would even bet we will see a few more flakes this winter than over the past 3 dismal winters.

Billcarson · 13-09-2014 9:48pm

Im no expert when it comes to teleconnections but one thing in our favour this winter will be a negative QBO, so a weaker PV compared to last winter is more likely. A strong positve QBO that we had last winter certainly did not help our cause. Of course there are other things to be considered but at least that is one thing in our favour for those hoping for a cold winter this year.

Nabber · 18-09-2014 2:01am

We will have an average winter. Couple of below zeros, rain, lows sweeping across the north west. Play the odds lads.

What i would love this year is some really dense fog. 2 mtr visibility.

LordNorbury · 18-09-2014 10:21am

When are we due our boards.ie authoritative winter forecast anyway?!?

Gonzo · 18-09-2014 12:29pm

bit early for winter forecasts, it still feels like mid July. We should hear something before the end of October. My money is on an average winter which in our case will mean a slightly cooler, less windy winter than last year. There should be at least a few quick glimses of snow. Not expecting anything remotely like winter 2009/2010.

Lucreto · 18-09-2014 2:42pm

LordNorbury wrote: »

When are we due our boards.ie authoritative winter forecast anyway?!?

It will be early November before we hear anything.

I am going for a cooler than average Winter with more in the way of frost than snow. After skipping Winter for the most part last year anything is an improvement.

tomcosgrave · 18-09-2014 7:32pm

If Bardarbunga in Iceland erupts in a big way and for a prolonged time in the next couple of months, I would say serious snow is a given for the winter. And it won't be at all pleasant either.

Calibos · 19-09-2014 6:50am

tomcosgrave wrote: »

If Bardarbunga in Iceland erupts in a big way and for a prolonged time in the next couple of months, I would say serious snow is a given for the winter. And it won't be at all pleasant either.

Not pleasant as in "Don't eat the grey gritty snow" ???

tomcosgrave · 19-09-2014 12:01pm

Not pleasant as there'll be loads and loads of it, more than has been seen since the 1960s I would say, and life will get very difficult.

power101 · 19-09-2014 2:54pm

tomcosgrave wrote: »

If Bardarbunga in Iceland erupts in a big way and for a prolonged time in the next couple of months, I would say serious snow is a given for the winter. And it won't be at all pleasant either.

Just a back of the envelope calculation but the amount of sulfur dioxide being released is as follows

400kg of SO2 per second. So thats 400*60*60*24=34,560,000 kg per day. The eruption has been going for 33 days now so that's 1.1 billion kg's of SO2 released so far or 1.1 million metric tonnes. This is still small in the scheme of things but if the eruption continues for several more months it could start to cause a change in our local climate.

piuswal · 20-09-2014 12:52am

power101 wrote: »

Just a back of the envelope calculation but the amount of sulfur dioxide being released is as follows

400kg of SO2 per second. So thats 400*60*60*24=34,560,000 kg per day. The eruption has been going for 33 days now so that's 1.1 billion kg's of SO2 released so far or 1.1 million metric tonnes. This is still small in the scheme of things but if the eruption continues for several more months it could start to cause a change in our local climate.

Any figures for the last Icelandic eruptions that caused so much flight disruptions?

The One Doctor · 20-09-2014 1:53pm

piuswal wrote: »

Any figures for the last Icelandic eruptions that caused so much flight disruptions?

An estimated 3000 tonnes of SO2 per day for around 70 days.

maquiladora · 20-09-2014 4:14pm

I've been looking over the records of significant snowfall events in Ireland during the 20th century to get an idea of how often and regularly they occur. These are individual significant snowfall events, not significant winters overall, you can have a snow event in the middle of an otherwise unexceptional winter.

In total there were 27 significant events spanning 16 different winter seasons. So on average that's a winter with a significant snowfall event every 6-7 years, but keep in mind some of those winters are back to back while others were separated by gaps of up to 15 years.

Irelandcool · 20-09-2014 10:58pm

Given the unusual extreme winter we had last year what is it looking this year I have no idea but perhaps someone here has heard of a forecast

derekon · 21-09-2014 9:08am

maquiladora wrote: »

I've been looking over the records of significant snowfall events in Ireland during the 20th century to get an idea of how often and regularly they occur. These are individual significant snowfall events, not significant winters overall, you can have a snow event in the middle of an otherwise unexceptional winter.

In total there were 27 significant events spanning 16 different winter seasons. So on average that's a winter with a significant snowfall event every 6-7 years, but keep in mind some of those winters are back to back while others were separated by gaps of up to 15 years.

A gap of 15 years?!!! - that is enough to drive any snow lover demented

D

rickdangerouss · 21-09-2014 9:29am

maquiladora wrote: »

I've been looking over the records of significant snowfall events in Ireland during the 20th century to get an idea of how often and regularly they occur. These are individual significant snowfall events, not significant winters overall, you can have a snow event in the middle of an otherwise unexceptional winter.

In total there were 27 significant events spanning 16 different winter seasons. So on average that's a winter with a significant snowfall event every 6-7 years, but keep in mind some of those winters are back to back while others were separated by gaps of up to 15 years.

Are you working for Paddy Power or something?

Tindie · 21-09-2014 4:29pm

I Being checking the updates on Weather outlook, Very week!

The fourth update increases the chances of snow falling on Christmas day in the south and reduces it for the north. The reason for this is recent trends perhaps pointing towards more anticyclonic conditions developing during the early part of the winter with a chance of colder continental incursions. In this type of set up southern and eastern areas would be most likely to see colder conditions and a chance of snow flurries.

Recent years have brought a range of weather during the festive season to the UK, and there have been some notable cold spells. This year at the present time background signals look fairly neutral but things could change during the autumn.

Enjoy counting down the days to the big day and check regularly for updates. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%

Forecast issued
Update 4, 20/09/2014

The computer says [Issued 21/09/2014 12:46:39]

The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?
It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
Snow is expected in Wales
Snow is expected in the Midlands
Snow is expected in the north
Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland
Snow is expected in Northern Ireland
Snow is expected in the Republic of Ireland
Snow is expected in the Netherlands

Also over at http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

Winter
December
A very early look at December here, and at this point it should be considered very low confidence. Currently the forecasting model is suggesting high pressure to the north and in particular northeast of the UK which would translate to slightly cooler than average temperatures for England and Wales, closer to average in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Is that what happen in 2010?

Musicman2000 · 21-09-2014 6:37pm

Tindie wrote: »

I Being checking the updates on Weather outlook, Very week!

Also over at http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

Is that what happen in 2010?

Afraid not it was northern blocking over greenland in 2010 , By sounds of the above its mid latitude block over Scandinavia

The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

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