Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Thursday, 21 November, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cold with isolated wintry showers, mainly near north coast and in higher parts of Dublin and Wicklow, highs 6-9 C. Winds north to northeast 30-50 km/hr will make it feel colder in Leinster and Ulster, coastal Connacht, but less windy inland west and south.

TONIGHT ... Clear with some cloudy intervals, fog may develop inland, with patches of freezing fog, as lows fall to the -3 to +1 range. Isolated showers near north coast could become sleety inland in Ulster.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY will continue partly cloudy to sunny in the daytime hours and clear with some patchy but dense fog and freezing fog inland, with lows generally -3 to +1 C and highs 7-10 C.

OUTLOOK ... A little milder next week, dry in most places for the first few days, and highs 8-12 C, slight to moderate frosts inland. Fog could become more frequent during this spell, and some of the fog could be persistent given the low solar angle, so highs would not reach those levels where fog fails to dissipate (a few inland valleys). However, for this time of year, the weather will become increasingly pleasant for coastal regions in particular (and that is of course where most people tend to live). It may be mildest near the Connacht coast as warmer air could reach that region from the west. There appears to be a slight risk of inversion fog conditions persisting in parts of the inland southeast despite rather warm daytime temperatures around the coasts. This settled spell may eventually end with a colder northwest to north wind as the high shows signs of drifting west in about two weeks' time. However this pattern could then return which would lead to quite a dry December.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Further sleety showers, strong northerly winds gusting to 70 or 80 km/hr, cold and raw with highs about 5-8 C.

OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland with a very gradual warming trend, and much less windy after Thursday. Fog is likely to be more widespread in part because the air mass will be colder but also because there has been more rain recently in Britain than in Ireland so the ground will be moist when skies clear.


Forecasts for North America

Cold and dry conditions prevail over much of western Canada and the northwest U.S., with just a brief interval of milder westerly winds due over the weekend, then that will be followed by another surge of cold arctic air. This pattern will stay mostly dry with light frontal snowfalls. The east will be under a less bitter seasonably cool high. There are only weak systems between the two different regimes and these will bring small amounts of sleet or rain to parts of the Midwest and central plains. The south will be closer to average although not unusually mild. ... My local weather was sunny and cold with a morning low of about -3 C and a high of just 4 C.

Saturday, 23 November, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some cloudy intervals and persistent freezing fog in a few locations, but otherwise mostly sunny and continuing rather cold (to very cold in areas with persistent fog). Highs at best 7-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Little change with clear spells, fog and freezing fog developing, lows -5 to +1 C in most locations but 3-5 C in outer coastal headlands.

SATURDAY to MONDAY ... Little change, slightly warmer each day in those areas not affected by persistent fog, highs 8-11 C. Overnight lows will vary considerably from -4 to +4 C depending on cloud cover and clear skies overhead. Freezing fog may develop inland each night.

TUESDAY to FRIDAY ... Somewhat milder except perhaps in south central inland regions which could stay colder due to persistent fog or low cloud. Northern counties will feel considerably warmer by mid-week and could see highs of 12-14 C. Further south, 10-12 C will be more widespread. Lows will continue in the -3 to +3 range.

OUTLOOK ... It's quite uncertain how this persistent anticyclonic blocking pattern will break down but a northwest to northerly flow seems the most likely route, although it could take as long as two weeks to start affecting Ireland and this would come after several days of a similar breakdown further east over parts of Britain. However, the pattern could also evolve into a milder southwesterly flow, if strong lows forming on the east coast of North America totally blast away this block around the first week of December.

Due to persistent patterns and the extensive write-up yesterday, the other forecast sections will be updated again tomorrow or Monday if new details are warranted.

Monday, 25 November, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals mid-day, highs 8-11 C. Light and variable winds.

TONIGHT ... Light fog or mist, drizzle in a few spots, any clearing would lead to freezing fog but seems less likely now, lows 2-5 C.

OUTLOOK ... This dull, calm spell seems likely to persist with minor variations for another week so from now to about Friday look for mostly cloudy skies, mist or fog patches, highs 9-12 C milder in northwest, lows generally 2-5 C but at any time could locally fall below freezing. Friday could bring some patchy light rain with a weak front and by Saturday, it could be a few degrees colder at night and slightly colder in the daytime with a hint of a northerly breeze (stronger in Ulster) but then this mild, cloudy and calm regime will redevelop for a day or two. The models all seem to tire of this eventually and replace it with a strong westerly flow that would be mild and damp if not wet. Colder air seems to be massing well to the north and looking for any opening but so far there are no definitive signs of truly wintry weather (yet).


Forecasts for Britain

We are still in the same position of duplicating the forecasts since the regimes for Ireland and Britain are essentially similar, but when colder air moves in on the weekend, it will give Scotland a more direct shot with highs falling off to about 3-5 C there. Otherwise, most of the details would remain about the same.


Forecasts for North America

Cold and dry for most eastern regions, with fewer lake effect squalls as winds calm down under the core of high pressure. Extensive low-level moisture is seeping north from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a weak storm in Texas, sleet and freezing rain likely well inland and a cold rain or drizzle closer to the Gulf coasts, all of this phasing with a weak system dropping southeast from central Canada with light snow or sleet for the Midwest as temperatures warm slightly in advance of a fresh surge of very cold air now covering most of western Canada except for the B.C. coast which is mild and dry. My local weather on Sunday featured mild hazy sunshine with a high of about 11 C.

Wednesday, 27 November, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, mild especially in northern and western counties, highs 9-13 C highest values in parts of Connacht.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, mild north, lows 4-7 C, some clear intervals and frosty in parts of inland south, lows -2 to +3 C. Fog patches and isolated freezing fog in those counties.

THURSDAY will see little change from the above.

FRIDAY could find the northern half of the country under a few passing showers in a moderate westerly breeze, but little change is likely further south. Highs will continue in the 8-12 C range.

SATURDAY looks somewhat cooler especially in Ulster but with more air movement there could also be more sunshine, so in some ways it may be an improvement, highs 7-11 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will then return to the current pattern although possibly with more patchy light rain and drizzle thrown into the mixture. Highs 10-13 C.

TUESDAY and beyond could turn more unsettled and windy, still quite mild Tuesday then a bit colder each day from current indications, as highs slide down closer to normal values of 6-9 C. At the moment this colder turn looks more dramatic on the leading European model guidance, than on other model runs, and if it's correct, the northerly surge of arctic air could produce a few wintry showers in the north or even some accumulating snows; however, the milder signal is probably not being totally overcome and could then return within three or four days. There is also some chance that the colder turn will be less dramatic altogether.

Forecasts for Britain

The forecast will follow almost the same pattern as the forecasts for Ireland except that the weekend and later colder turns will be more pronounced in Scotland and could bring temperatures as low as 4-7 C daytime there, with hill snow possible.


Forecasts for North America

Heading for NYC, Boston or any other part of the northeast? Pack rain gear and expect gale force southeast winds today with potential for 75-125 mm rainfalls and southerly winds gusting to 120 km/hr in eastern New England (not as windy NYC to DC although breezy at times, turning gradually colder in NYC, PHL and DCA from 10 C down to 4 C). West of the major cities the storm will bring mixed precip at times, as temperatures soar to 16 C or higher east of the storm track (mostly Long Island, e CT, RI and MA, later se NH and ME) but will remain 2-5 C very close to the low's path. Today will find heavy wet snow continuing over the higher parts of the east central states along with heavy rains in the southeast states. Heavy snow or sleet will be moving in phase with the storm across higher parts of WV, MD, PA and NY into eastern ON and s Quebec (QC). Continued cold and dry in parts of the central states and eastern prairies to northern Ontario, and mild, dry weather further west except northern half of B.C. with low elevation rain showers, hill and mountain snow flurries still mainly to north of Vancouver. My local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy and mild with a high close to 10 C.

Friday, 29 November, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... The northern half of the country will see a few passing showers in a moderate W-NW breeze 40-70 km/hr (some higher gusts near Ulster coasts), but partly cloudy conditions will prevail further south with W-NW breezes of 30-50 km/hr, possibly some isolated showers making it that far. Rainfalls only 2-4 mm at most. Highs will continue in the 10-12 C range in the south but could be held to 7-9 C in parts of Ulster.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy with showers ending, breezy (NW to N 30-50 km/hr) and lows generally 2-5 C, possibly some isolated patchy ground frost in parts of the inland north where lows -1 to +4 C.

SATURDAY looks somewhat cooler especially in Ulster but with moderate NW to N breezes at 30-50 km/hr there could also be more sunshine, so in some ways it may be an improvement, morning lows -1 to +4 C and highs 7-11 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will then return to the current partly cloudy and mild pattern although possibly with more patchy light rain and drizzle thrown into the mixture towards the northwest coast at least. Highs 10-13 C. Some patchy light frost may develop inland south each morning, but for most places lows will be around 2-5 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY will become more unsettled and breezy, still quite mild Tuesday then a bit colder each day from current indications, as highs slide down closer to normal values of 8-10 C Tuesday, 7-9 C Wednesday and Thursday. Some showers likely especially in northern counties.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY (6th-8th) seem likely to become quite cold with sharp frosts in the -6 to -3 C range, daytime highs 2 to 5 C, and moderate northerly winds especially over Ulster and Leinster as the cold spell begins. Some wintry showers may develop in streamers coming inland from the Atlantic around Donegal Bay and parts of east Ulster too. Less widespread wintry showers are possible further south, but a fair amount of cold sunshine will be likely as high pressure builds up close to the west coast. This cold spell seems unlikely to last beyond three days and it could become rather mild within a few days.


Forecasts for Britain

The forecast will follow almost the same pattern as the forecasts for Ireland except that this weekend and then the 6-10 December colder turns will be more pronounced in Scotland and could bring temperatures as low as 4-7 C daytime there, with hill snow possible (and by the December cold outbreak highs could be close to freezing with lows well down below -6 C). The colder period after 6 Dec may also be more severe in all regions of Britain as they remain in a stronger north to northwest wind flow and possibly see more extensive sea effect snow showers forming over the Irish Sea, which would favour north Wales and Cornwall-Devon for heavier amounts on high ground at least.


Forecasts for North America

A very weak system (within a day it appears as a 1035 mb low over the Great Lakes) will still manage to produce a few centimetres of snow in parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes after bringing 5-10 cm to the eastern prairies and northern plains states early today. The cold will hang tight for most of eastern regions with this new disturbance having almost no milder air along for the ride, and highs will remain generally -5 to -1 C in much of the region trending to 8-13 C near the Gulf coast and 12-17 C in Florida. This chill is set to moderate slowly over the next three or four days as the west has only slightly milder air masses available, with highs generally about 20 C in the south to 5-8 C in southern B.C. and Alberta. My local weather on Thursday was cloudy with traces of light rain during the evening hours, highs near 7 C.

Comet ISON was largely pulled apart as it rounded the Sun, apparently, but some fragments remain and there is an outside chance of some event becoming visible at least in binoculars next week.

Sunday, 1 December, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly cloudy and mild although with some patchy light rain and drizzle thrown into the mixture towards the northwest coast. Highs 10-13 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some clear intervals mainly inland south and west where some patchy light frost may develop but for most places lows will be around 2-5 C.

MONDAY ... Mostly cloudy with a few sunny intervals, highs 9-12 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY will become more unsettled and breezy, still quite mild Tuesday then a bit colder each day from current indications, as highs slide down closer to normal values of 8-10 C Tuesday, 7-9 C Wednesday and Thursday. Some showers likely especially in northern counties. These will become heavier and merge into spells of blustery rain on Thursday as winds increase to 50-80 km/hr.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY (6th-8th) seem likely to become quite cold with sharp frosts in the -6 to -3 C range, daytime highs 2 to 5 C, and moderate northerly winds especially over Ulster and Leinster as the cold spell begins. Some wintry showers may develop in streamers coming inland from the Atlantic around Donegal Bay and parts of east Ulster too. Less widespread wintry showers are possible further south, but a fair amount of cold sunshine will be likely as high pressure builds up close to the west coast. This cold spell seems unlikely to last beyond three days and it could become rather mild within a few days. It can be added today that some of the models have begun to downgrade the cold spell but the leading European model has continued to feature it for at least Friday and the weekend (6-8 Dec) with a gradual milder trend to follow.

As things remain similar to yesterday's outlook for Britain and North America, those forecasts will be updated again tomorrow. My local weather on Saturday was generally damp with some steady rain at times, foggy and around 7 C.

Tuesday, 3 December, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Variable cloud although mostly overcast, with isolated showers, some more persistent light rain developing later in north but amounts only 2-4 mm, highs 8-11 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some clear intervals developing towards morning, rather cold with lows 2-4 C and a few pockets of frost with lows near -1 C in central counties.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, somewhat colder again, with afternoon highs 6 to 9 C. Breezy by afternoon especially in northern counties where winds will pick up from west at about 40-60 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Becoming windy and turning colder still especially in Ulster where mixed or wintry showers are possible. Otherwise showers likely to be either rain or hail except on high ground in south and west. Winds increasing to WNW 50-80 km/hr and some gusts to about 110 km/hr on north Ulster coasts and all higher terrain. Morning lows -1 to +3 C and afternoon highs about 4-5 C north, 7-8 C south.

FRIDAY ... Wintry showers during early morning hours in parts of Ulster and a sharp frost in many places away from south and west coasts, not as windy but still quite breezy and cold, although turning milder by afternoon in west Munster. Lows -5 to -2 C and highs about 5 C except 8-10 C in west Munster as winds back from strong westerly to southwest. In the north, early morning wind gusts will remain in the 80-100 km/hr range before abating during the day on Friday, but it will be much less windy in general further south.

OUTLOOK ... The weekend will see gradually milder weather returning in stages from southwest to northeast, highs reaching about 9 C on Saturday and 11 C on Sunday in the south and west, perhaps only 7 to 9 in east and north. This trend should continue most of next week in a generally southerly flow although if winds happen to back to southeast at any point this could drop the temperatures by several degrees. Also there may be a tendency for nights to be somewhat frosty in parts of the inland east while quite mild further west due to variations in cloud cover. The suggestion of a return to bitter cold has almost vanished from the guidance now, and where there is a hint, it's on a different model (GFS) than yesterday's strong signal on the European model. On the other hand, some of the model runs get into very mild solutions that see the source of the air flow in the western Mediterranean region -- if those were to verify temperatures could reach the mid-teens in some areas by end of next week.


Forecasts for Britain

In general, the picture is similar for Britain although when the cold air does arrive Thursday it will come in much stronger in Scotland on W-NW winds that will reach speeds of 80-120 km/hr with widespread snow showers and some blizzard conditions possible there. From northern England and Wales south into Cornwall and Devon, the risk of wintry showers will also be greater then, but for eastern and southern England the cold will be mainly dry and it will only be slightly stronger and more prolonged (into about Saturday), after which the same warming trend and comments about later next week apply. Some parts of southeast England could see frost and fog at times during the week as they will be closer to the stagnant high located over central Europe.

Note also, the Thursday night to Friday track of the low across the Baltic region will bring an intense and possibly damaging wind storm to parts of Holland, northern Germany, southern Denmark, southern Sweden, Poland and the Baltic states. Winds could gust to 140 km/hr in places from a westerly direction, and it will turn progressively colder with blowing snow. North of the low's track across most of Norway, Sweden and Finland, Estonia and western Russia could see heavy snowfalls although not as windy from the northeast at about 70 km/hr.


Forecasts for North America

Blizzard conditions will move gradually southeast away from western Canada and into the northern plains states, to be followed by slow clearing in biting northeast winds, and temperatures as low as -20 to -30 C. The heaviest snow by later today and tonight will be in the Dakotas and Minnesota where 20-40 cm could fall. Much colder air will flood south into most parts of the western U.S. although the southern half of Arizona and New Mexico will stay relatively warm at 20 C. Cold air will also spill out to the west coast as far south as central California. Showers will develop across southern California with mountain snows. Meanwhile, the central plains and Midwest will turn much milder briefly, with highs 12-17 C. This milder trend will be weaker near the east coast although eventually they will also get a day or two of above normal temperatures before this vast cold spell pushes further east and south to reach almost all regions except Florida by the weekend, albeit losing some of its intensity in eastern regions where highs will eventually fall to about -10 C.

My local weather on Monday was partly cloudy and cold, with a few snow showers reported around the district although not at my location (yet). The high was 4 C and it is now -2 C with a cold northeast wind blowing.

Thursday, 5 December, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

Astronomy note: Anyone with clear skies this evening will catch a lovely view of Venus and the crescent new moon in the southwest right after sunset. These will be even closer together for viewers in North America later (at the same time of day). The very bright object high in the sky around midnight is Jupiter.

ALERT for strong wind gusts spreading southeast into Leinster this morning, but peak gusts will occur soon (around 0800h) and speeds will decrease by mid-day. Peak gusts of about 110 km/hr will occur in exposed locations but may not exceed 70 km/hr in parts of the south.


TODAY .... Very windy until mid-day, and turning quite cold in the north, mixed wintry showers and winds W-NW 70-120 km/hr, abating to 40-70 km/hr by afternoon, morning temperatures 8-10 C will drop quickly later this morning and settle into the 4-6 C range with showers turning to sleet or snow on higher ground ... partly cloudy, isolated showers, rather cold further south, winds W-NW 50-80 km/hr in some parts for part of the morning but abating to only 30-60 km/hr later, highs 7-11 C mostly before mid-day as temperatures fall gradually this afternoon. Peak winds likely around 0800h then a gradual improvement.

TONIGHT will become very cold especially in Ulster and Leinster, inland Connacht, where lows could reach -3 to -5 C, and a few locations may see accumulations of snow, for example Glenshane Pass and some higher parts of Donegal and Mayo. South and west will see lows -2 to +1 C and a few mixed wintry showers especially on hills. Not as windy but some gusts to 40 km/hr from NW backing to W later.

FRIDAY will stay quite cold in Ulster and Leinster, with the strong winds gradually abating to W 30-50 km/hr, and a few more wintry showers, with highs 4-7 C possibly not reached until evening. The south and west will turn milder especially by afternoon and evening. Highs there will reach 8-11 C.

SATURDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy, mild with a few showers in the north but largely dry elsewhere, morning lows 3-7 C and afternoon highs about 9-12 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and very mild, lows 3-7 C and highs 10-13 C.

NEXT WEEK will remain very mild and temperatures could reach 14 or 15 C at times in the south and west. The north and east could have slightly cooler readings 10-13 C due to a slight easterly component to the generally south winds. There is no really strong signal of an end to this mild spell beyond the range of the models and I think it could persist beyond Christmas Day and perhaps even reach New Years Day but it will break down then with much colder weather in early January. Some models want to bring very cold air west again, but the leading European model seems to be having none of that except in the Balkans and parts of Italy. Still, we should note that the outlook past mid-week is lower confidence than in some cases, but my feeling is that mild weather will prevail until about the 28th (after this brief cold snap) before
a change takes place around New Years.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will feature very strong winds across Scotland and northern England, with temperatures turning sharply colder in those regions, dropping steadily to reach 2-4 C and colder on high ground with accumulations of snow in gale to storm force west veering northwest winds, gusts to 140 km/hr possible. The south and central portions of England and most of Wales will be less extreme with moderate W-NW winds 55-90 km/hr and passing showers only wintry on higher ground, highs 4-8 C. Note that severe windstorm conditions will sweep across the North Sea and Baltic regions later today and snow will be widespread in Scandinavia. Hamburg, Germany could see severe storm surge conditions this afternoon or evening, and Holland, Denmark, the Malmo district of southern Sweden (and Baltic islands), also Germany, Poland and Lithuania could see widespread wind damage.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY will stay rather cold in most of Britain, the milder trend in Ireland will push slowly into Wales and southwest England but won't make very fast progress further east. Highs will be near 5 C on Friday and 7 C on the weekend, on average, although milder than that in Wales and southwest England, colder in Scotland.

OUTLOOK is for milder, cloudy and at times foggy weather, rather mild although not as mild as in Ireland, except perhaps in a few parts of the southwest, due to an inversion that could keep temperatures around 5-8 C in parts of eastern England. There is potential for highs of 11-14 C in western regions of England and in Wales, and 9-12 C in western Scotland and northern England. If the low-probability colder solution develops, it could then turn bitterly cold but this will probably not be the case.


Forecasts for North America

Heavy snow that brought 80 cm to parts of Minnesota near Lake Superior on Wednesday, will move northeast today through northern Ontario into central Quebec. Colder air will seep around this weakening storm system and stall around Toronto to St Louis to Dallas as a new storm develops over Texas, bringing widespread severe freezing rain to the south central states and later into the Tennessee valley region. Light snow will redevelop further north and over the central Rockies. A second storm will follow this one in about two days and bring another swath of freezing rain and snow. Bitter cold will remain in place over the central and northern plains, prairies of Canada and increasingly into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions also. The east coast of the U.S. will stay a bit milder although not far from early December normals (5-8 C) and some light rain is likely there. My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and frigid at -2 C daytime high, -7 C night.

Saturday, 7 December, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, mild with a few outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, moderate WSW winds 30-50 km/hr, highs 9-12 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, mild, drizzle or light rain in parts of west and north, lows around 5-8 C.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy, mild, moderate SW winds 30-50 km/hr, a few showers mostly in northern counties, highs 10-13 C.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY will continue mild or very mild, highs 11-14 C, a few intervals of rain developing towards Tuesday night, winds generally S to SW at 30-50 km/hr although 50-70 km/hr near exposed parts of the west coast by mid-week.

THURSDAY to SATURDAY will become more unsettled and breezy to windy, continued very mild with highs 11-14 C, winds increasing at times to S-SW 60 to 100 km/hr as fronts pass. Around Saturday 14th there could be a strong wind event as deep low pressure tracks close to Mayo and Donegal, but details on this will remain sketchy until perhaps mid-week.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The pattern looks to remain mild or very mild through the Christmas holiday period, with a few unsettled intervals but rainfall generally a bit below average for December. My research indicates that it could turn fairly cold after New Years with increasing chances for snow in the period around 8-12 January.


Forecasts for Britain

Except for somewhat slower warming trends over the weekend (especially in Scotland) the forecasts are similar for Britain and the next two weeks seem likely to be largely snow-free with a lot of settled weather and the possibility of fog most nights in the southeast, with temperatures perhaps a little lower there as a result of lingering low cloud or fog. Western portions of Britain will be well above 12 C at times this week and perhaps also the following week.


Forecasts for North America

Sleet or snow will continue to move northeast in waves this weekend, tracking from around Oklahoma and Arkansas to the mid-Atlantic states into Long Island and southern New England. North of this there will be some dry, partly cloudy and cold weather in the Great Lakes and Midwest, followed by light snow by Sunday, and clear, very cold conditions across most of the central and western states as well as most of western Canada. Temperatures have fallen to record low values in many places each night for the past few days and it is currently very close to -40 (C or F) in parts of Alberta as well as higher parts of Montana and Wyoming. Cedar City, Utah, had a record low that was 10 deg lower than previously recorded over a century ago (this partly due to unusual snow cover there). Meanwhile, my local weather is also unusually cold but snow-free, the high on Friday was a bone-chilling -3 C under clear skies and with a biting N-NE wind.

Monday, 9 December, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, very mild, a few outbreaks of drizzle or light rain but little accumulation, highs 11-14 C, with moderate southerly winds about 30-50 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, mild with mist or fog patches, drizzle, lows 7-10 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks in east and south, drizzle or light rain west and north, very mild, highs 11-14 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will continue very mild with just light, patchy rain in a few places each day, and southerly winds continuing. Highs 11-14 C and overnight lows staying quite high (6-10 C).

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Breezy to windy at times, showers, not quite as mild although still above average at 9-12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There is more chance of rain next week but it appears likely to continue very mild with highs in the lower teens. This pattern shows no real signs of breaking down until around the last few days of the month.


Forecasts for Britain

The pattern over Britain will also be very mild and the nights will be generally mild also, but could be somewhat colder in the southeast if skies happen to clear during the evenings, then also some dense fog could develop. But in general it's a similar picture with highs into the lower teens and possibly as high as 15 or 16 C in a few spots.


Forecasts for North America

East coast cities will see a bit of rain briefly but snow or sleet will return by tonight and Tuesday, after temperatures peak near 10 C. The Midwest and northern plains states will stay very cold with outbreaks of light snow (3-5 cm or less) with highs near -5 C south to -15 C north. This very cold air remains locked in over most of western Canada with just slight variations as weak systems pass, one of these is bringing 5-8 cm of snow to parts of Alberta and later Montana today. Temperatures are near -20 C except close to the foothills where it's slightly milder. The west coast is turning slightly milder with light snow turning to sleet, and the southwest states are also recovering from recent severe cold but at a slow pace. My local weather on Sunday was sunny and cold again with a high of about -2 C.

Wednesday, 11 December, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, then a partial clearing trend, very mild, highs 12 to 14 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with fog and drizzle developing, very mild, lows 7-11 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, passing showers, mild, highs about 13 C. Rainfalls about 10-15 mm will begin to break the dry spell.

FRIDAY ... Breezy or windy, showers, mild, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Windy at times with showers turning to periods of rain later Saturday, then some partial clearing by Sunday with more showers to follow. Highs each day around 11-12 C, winds reaching SW 50-80 km/hr at times late Saturday, easing somewhat for part of Sunday, then quite windy again late Sunday into Monday.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Windy and mild, possibly turning very windy for Monday night into Tuesday 17th. Another windy event seems likely before Christmas as storms develop off the east coast of North America and race northeast in a strong jet stream. Temperatures will tend to vary between very mild (12-14 C) in warm sectors to about 7-9 C between systems as a slight mixing from Greenland enters the parade of weather fronts.

For Britain & North America, check yesterday's forecasts, as they were generally valid for several days and have not changed much. A major snowstorm may develop this weekend from the Midwest to the inland northeast U.S., before that, it will be quite cold with light snow in those regions. My local weather on Tuesday was once again a mixture of light (wet) snow and drizzle with a slight accumulation of 2-3 cms now. It appears likely to melt later today.

Friday, 13 December, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for strong winds Saturday in northwest, and ADVANCE ALERT for several periods of very strong winds to follow, details in forecasts.

TODAY ... Breezy or windy, intervals of rain to showers, mild although falling back closer to normal values, morning highs near 12 C. Temperatures will probably fall off slightly in west and north by afternoon. Rainfalls of about 10-15 mm with blustery showers at times, slight risk of hail or thunder.

TONIGHT ... Becoming very windy (S-SW 60-100 km/hr) in west and north, not quite this windy for east and south (40-70 km/hr), intervals of rain becoming heavy at times by morning, 15-20 mm potential, lows 7-9 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy at times with showers turning to periods of rain later in the day, highs 11 to 13 C. Very windy in Connacht and west Ulster (SW 60-90 km/hr with a few gusts to 110 km/hr) during the morning, easing slightly for the afternoon. The winds will be less extreme in the east and south but will produce some gusts to 90 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Further showers or periods of rain, another interval of strong winds developing, SW 70-110 km/hr, spreading more widely across east and south this time. Highs 10-12 C.

MONDAY ... Becoming much cooler with falling temperatures during the day from near 10 C in the morning to near 5 C afternoon, possibly as low as 2-4 C in north and northwest by evening. Showers will be blustery and could contain hail and (on high ground) sleet, winds veering westerly 50-80 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... After a rather cold start with the risk of sleet on higher ground (morning lows 1-4 C) temperatures will slowly rise and peak near 13 C in the evening or overnight hours as winds also rise to gale force S-SW 60-110 km/hr with bursts of heavy rain (20-30 mm possible). This storm will continue into Wednesday morning.

OUTLOOK ... Another sharp temperature drop is likely by later Wednesday into Thursday in westerly winds gusting to 80 km/hr. Then it will turn milder again towards the end of the week. This variable and quite windy (borderline stormy) pattern will probably continue through Christmas and the timing at this point is rather uncertain, but on balance I think that another milder push from the southwest will dominate Christmas Day with much colder spells to follow as winds veer more westerly. This parade of fronts may eventually tilt around to more of a northwesterly flow by New Years, and I think we may see some more wintry conditions developing early in January.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will start out very mild as the record warmth experienced in Ireland moves east (highs 14-16 C in southern England today) then showers or periods of rain will follow with gusty southwest winds developing.

The outlook is very similar to Ireland with increasing chances of rain and gusty winds into the weekend and storm potential next week. At first it will be Scotland getting most of the strong winds (some gusts to 120 km/hr by Saturday and again on Sunday evening), but by mid-week the gales or storm force gusts may spread south to cover Wales and much of England. After a long dry spell this week to two week period will see a gradual return to normal rainfall amounts.


Forecasts for North America

TODAY will see outbreaks of snow developing in the central plains states and Midwest, with local snow squalls in the Great Lakes region turning to steady snow overnight and Saturday. This snowfall event will cover the Ohio valley and inland northeast through the weekend and could bring 5-15 cm snowfalls from Chicago to Boston and most points inland west of PHL-DCA, sleet or snow in NYC. The southeast will turn a bit milder with rain then colder air will arrive late Saturday. The northern plains and eastern prairies will remain very cold (-20 C or lower) and light snow will fall but heavier snow will move across northern B.C. into central Alberta and then drop southeast, while milder chinooks bring a thaw to southern Alberta and most of Montana/Wyoming. Rain is spreading inland in southern B.C. and Washington state, but it's largely dry and mild further south (although very cold at night over previous snow cover in parts of Nevada and Utah). ... My local weather on Thursday was mild enough to melt most of the snow at 4 C and light rain falling at times.

Sunday, 15 December, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE ALERT for the growing potential of a severe wind storm on Wednesday night, with westerly gusts to at least 130 km/hr. A close watch is being maintained on this system which would develop in the wake of a storm currently moving through the northeast U.S. and expected to be in the central Atlantic by Tuesday. Although that one will end up near Iceland, models are fairly unanimous in pointing to strong development on Wednesday to the west of Ireland and emergence of a 950 mb low set to track through Donegal Bay towards the Hebrides. One model (GFS) is already showing the potential for hurricane force wind gusts in Connacht and west Ulster on Wednesday night, so we are concerned. Stay tuned.

TODAY ... Further showers or periods of rain, another interval of strong winds developing, S to SW 70-110 km/hr, although fortunately more severe gusts will remain offshore to the northwest. Highs 10-12 C. Winds easing slightly during the afternoon but remaining quite breezy.

TONIGHT ... Showers may become heavy again and by late overnight some may become wintry on higher ground in the west. However, at lower elevations where most people are, lows will remain 5-7 C.

MONDAY ... Becoming much cooler with falling temperatures during the day from near 9 or 10 C in the morning to near 5 C afternoon, possibly as low as 2-4 C in north and northwest by evening. Showers will be blustery and could contain hail and (on high ground) sleet, winds veering westerly 50-80 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... After a rather cold start with the risk of sleet on higher ground (morning lows 1-4 C) temperatures will slowly rise and peak near 13 C in the evening or overnight hours as winds also rise to gale force S-SW 60-110 km/hr with bursts of heavy rain (20-30 mm possible). This storm will continue into Wednesday morning, then ease briefly before resuming with greater intensity.

WEDNESDAY ... There is considerable risk of an intense windstorm developing as a secondary low forms in the wake of Tuesday night's frontal system, and tracks close to the northwest coasts by evening. We can be more certain that the day will be at least very windy and showery with highs around 10 C. Gusts could potentially reach 130 km/hr or higher from the WSW veering westerly. A close watch is being maintained on this system which would last most of Wednesday night on current guidance.

THURSDAY ... Strong winds likely to continue in the 60-100 km/hr range, somewhat colder again as winds veer more westerly, lows 2-4 C and highs near 8 or 9 C at best.

OUTLOOK ... A milder surge will return around Friday with strong south to southwest winds and rain developing, highs near 12 C, then the following weekend will probably continue gusty and unsettled with slowly falling temperatures, possibly cold enough for some higher ground hail or snow showers although at this stage I don't expect widespread low-elevation snow to develop as highs will stay around 7 C at least. Looking further ahead, another storm seems likely around Christmas and once again some of the guidance shows this one being very intense, so something to monitor although of course too far off to be that precise. As I've been saying for days, I feel that it will stay generally rather mild except for the strong wind chills, until near the end of the month, then it may turn significantly colder for New Years into early January 2014.


Forecasts for Britain

Similar trends to Ireland, today's stronger winds only hitting parts of Scotland and northwest England with full force, but each potential windstorm "down the road" would also hit most of Britain quite hard as well, and with those wind speeds, not very long after hitting Ireland. The Wednesday night event would be worst in northern England to central and western Scotland, spreading south on Thursday into Wales and the Midlands. It could be exceptionally severe for the Western Isles.


Forecasts for North America

Heavy snow has covered most of the Midwest and lower Great Lakes regions and will continue most of today in Ontario, upstate New York and New England. Where the snow has changed to rain, it may change back to snow before ending. Amounts of 20-35 cms are possible. Colder air is flooding south behind the storm and will cover most of the central states today keeping highs below freezing. Milder air continues to push east from the Pacific coasts across the Rockies and will generate a "clipper" type low late tonight that will then race southeast to reach the lower Great Lakes on Tuesday. Meanwhile the southwest U.S. is enjoying some milder sunshine except over higher plateau areas that are snow covered. My local weather on Saturday was a rather drab low cloud and fog with drizzle and highs near 8 C.

Tuesday, 17 December, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for the continuing potential of a severe wind storm on Wednesday night, with westerly gusts to at least 130 km/hr in parts of the west and north, 110 km/hr generally for other regions. It may be possible to be more precise later today or in the morning forecast tomorrow, readers should factor in that this system has barely begun to form and will have a very rapid development cycle on Wednesday.

Astronomy note: Full moon occurs today at 9:29 a.m. which means it will have set in Europe, but near the zenith in North American skies where visible.

TODAY ... After a rather cold start with the risk of sleety showers this morning on higher ground in the north, temperatures will slowly rise to near 8 to 10 degrees by late afternoon (and will then peak near 12 C in the evening or overnight hours) as winds also rise to gale force S-SW 60-100 km/hr by sunset, with bursts of heavy rain developing after some sunny intervals earlier in the day.

TONIGHT ... Windy with periods of rain, 20-30 mm possible. Mild, with temperatures rising then steady in the 9-12 C range. Winds SSW 40-70 km/hr but with some higher gusts near 90 km/hr continuing.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers and some thunder or hail in blustery south to southwest winds during the day, morning lows 9-11 C and temperatures then steady most of the day, winds SSW 50-80 km/hr veering to WSW 60-100 km/hr. ... There is considerable risk of an intense windstorm developing by evening, and gusts in parts of west Munster, Connacht and west Ulster could potentially reach 130 km/hr or higher from the WSW veering westerly. Gusts to 110 km/hr would be expected elsewhere in this scenario but the details on this event may change. Strongest winds would be felt around 9 p.m. to midnight. Galway to Dublin could see some very strong gusts around midnight. Rainfalls 10-15 mm. The rest of the night would likely stay very windy with squally showers and lows 3-6 C. Some overtopping of seawalls likely at or around high tides especially on west coast.

THURSDAY ... Strong winds likely to continue in the 60-100 km/hr range, somewhat colder again as winds veer more westerly, lows 3-6 C and highs near 8 or 9 C at best.

OUTLOOK ... A milder surge will return around Friday with strong south to southwest winds and rain developing, highs near 12 C, then the following weekend will probably continue gusty and unsettled with slowly falling temperatures, possibly cold enough for some higher ground hail or snow showers by Sunday, although at this stage I don't expect widespread low-elevation snow to develop as highs will stay around 7 C at least. Looking further ahead, it will remain breezy to windy with temperatures 8-10 C and yet another storm seems likely around Christmas -- this morning's guidance has at least relaxed a bit on the theme of apocalyptic wind speeds but it makes many weather observers nervous to see so many different computer models toying with intense lows here and there, as one could actually happen in this pattern -- beyond Wednesday night's rather strong event, however, there is nothing too definite about damage potential with any of these.

Will resume forecasts for Britain and North America tomorrow, not much has changed from yesterday's comments. One thing of note is that a fairly active winter storm is indicated for the south central U.S. this weekend and there could be a wide mix of precipitation types in the Ohio valley and lower Great Lakes when it moves northeast. Meanwhile my local weather on Monday was benign, mostly dry but cloudy and mild, 10 C.

Thursday, 19 December, 2013

ALERT for some scattered outbreaks of snow or sleet during the morning commute that could cause some icy or slippery roads, combined with some glare from bright sunshine, could cause rapid changes in visibility and that might make some of your fellow drivers erratic even if you're not, so expect the unexpected. Also, there could be some road debris left over from fallen trees and other hazards at least until mid-morning when I would expect most minor situations will be improved. An ADVANCE ALERT would probably be needed for strong winds but they will likely be almost constant so let's just say that the next six or seven days will be mostly on the windy side and occasionally very windy, details may be hard to pin down with different models having somewhat different timetables, but Friday night, late Sunday into Monday morning, and Tuesday all appear more windy than the intervals in between.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals, passing showers of snow or sleet will become increasingly mixed with hail or rain, some temporary coverings of 1 to 3 cms this morning, melting fairly readily by mid-day, cold in a brisk westerly wind of about 40-70 km/hr. Highs 5 to 8 C with the colder readings in higher parts of the inland north.

TONIGHT ... Windy, a few showers, turning a bit milder after a cold start, temperatures near 2 C rising to about 7 C before sunrise, as winds begin to back into the southwest at 40-70 km/hr.

FRIDAY ... Windy and milder with periods of rain developing, some heavy falls possible (20-30 mm) by late afternoon or evening, winds SSW 60-110 km/hr with some severe gusts possible by evening. Highs 11-13 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy and squally with passing showers of rain or hail, turning to sleet on high ground later in the day, as temperatures fall slowly from morning readings near 10 C to evening values of 3-5 C. Winds westerly at about 70-110 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, showers or periods of rain, breezy then becoming very windy again later, SW 80-120 km/hr in exposed regions of west and north, otherwise 70-100 km/hr. Lows 2-4 C and highs 7-10 C.

MONDAY ... Very windy during the early morning with rain and possible thunder, gusts to 130 km/hr in exposed locations, then some clearing and continued rather windy all day, a few showers developing, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy, showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 9 C.

WED (Christmas Day) ... Variable cloud, showers, breezy, possibly stronger winds developing, lows near 3 C and highs near 8 C.

THURSDAY (St Stephens Day) ... At this point yet another windy day seems likely with periods of rain and possibly sleet or snow on higher ground as it will turn somewhat colder, temperatures in the 2-7 C range.

OUTLOOK ... Turning somewhat colder with increasing chances of wintry precipitation and near-freezing temperatures towards New Years, however there is some chance of a continuation of the current mix of temperatures.


Forecasts for Britain

The trends will be very similar with these fast-moving systems generally bringing stronger winds to northern England and southern Scotland than further south, but otherwise would expect very similar temperatures and conditions most days, snow mainly confined to higher ground if travelling.


Forecasts for North America

Milder in most of the Midwest, Great Lakes and eastern states, although only near normal at 4-7 C. Quite mild across the southeast and south central states with some sunshine breaking through cloud, 14-17 C to about 22 C Florida. Outbreaks of snow in the north-central plains and central Rockies, and clearing, turning colder further north into central Canada. Rather bland and near normal temperatures on the west coast, but a somewhat unusual storm system is developing over southern Arizona and northwest Mexico. This will bring high elevation snow and valley showers there, but when it moves gradually out into the plains states this weekend, it may create a messy mix of freezing rain, ice pellets and snow across the Midwest and Great Lakes by the weekend, while pumping up unseasonably warm air into the eastern states and Ohio valley. Christmas holiday period appears likely to return to very cold conditions after this system moves through by Monday 23rd.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny with a few cloudy intervals, although it was snowing in nearby mountains. Rather chilly with gusty northwest winds, highs near 6 C.

Note to early risers: If it's clear off to the west and still dark out, you'll probably see the nearly full Moon and bright Jupiter close together heading towards the western horizon. I just viewed them here as they were rising in the east-southeast.

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