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Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

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Comments

  • #362
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    bazlers wrote: »
    I liked the last paragraph of MTs daily forecast. I also liked his minimum temp guess (which as we all know is only a bit of fun) in the fact he mentions February as well. It gives winter a more prolonged feel to it...

    But just on that I think we all can agree, once there is enough snow at Christmas so Santy can pull his sleigh easily we will be happy!


  • #363
    Big Nasty
    Registered Users Posts: 22,080 ✭✭✭✭Big Nasty


    Have you a link to your winter forecast?


  • #364
    Strangegravy
    Registered Users Posts: 356 ✭✭Strangegravy


    So "if" this cold snap happens, it'd be more of a puppy than a beast, yeah... :)


  • #365
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,687 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Strangegravy wrote: »
    So "if" this cold snap happens, it'd be more of a puppy than a beast, yeah... :)

    A cool snap....


  • #366
    Strangegravy
    Registered Users Posts: 356 ✭✭Strangegravy


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    A cool snap....

    Gotcha ;)


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  • #367
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Any more mouth watering charts this morning? :pac:


  • #368
    Captain Snow
    Registered Users Posts: 600 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    leahyl wrote: »
    Any more mouth watering charts this morning? :pac:

    Cold and Frosty.

    24qoebs.png


  • #369
    Reckless Abandonment
    Registered Users Posts: 1,492 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    Easy on the porn Capitan...


  • #370
    KingdomRushed
    Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    Well the absolutely amazing charts are being displaced a little by more realistic fare. A trend is beginning to appear, particularly in the GFS ensembles that the pretty much nailed on Sandanavian high for next week is not as likely to meander over toward Greenland. What’s now beginning to trend is high pressure shifting from Scandinavia to Iceland giving a brief easterly flow then the high pressure cell slowly draining away as low heights push back into Greenland and north western Atlantic. Still promising stuff


  • #371
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Big Nasty wrote: »
    Have you a link to your winter forecast?

    My forecasts are very poor at best but trying to improve.

    This is the main mans forecast. The best long range forecaster out there.(I don't think too many would argue with that statement) He has quiet a high percentage of accuracy.
    He is also his own worst critic so no high horse with this man.
    Many years of his own research #legend

    But as always three months of a forecast is along time so a lot can change. Very interesting though.

    https://www.netweather...&comment=3911916

    This is the link on net weather where he goes by the name Roger J. Smith.

    Page 18 on this thread the correspondence about his forecast starts.MT Cranium.


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  • #372
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    bazlers wrote: »
    My forecasts are very poor at best but trying to improve.

    This is the main mans forecast. The best long range forecaster out there.(I don't think too many would argue with that statement) He has quiet a high percentage of accuracy.
    He is also his own worst critic so no high horse with this man.
    Many years of his own research #legend

    But as always three months of a forecast is along time so a lot can change. Very interesting though.

    https://www.netweather...&comment=3911916

    This is the link on net weather where he goes by the name Roger J. Smith.

    Page 18 on this thread the correspondence about his forecast starts.MT Cranium.

    https://www.netweather...&comment=3911916


  • #373
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    bazlers wrote: »
    https://www.netweather...&comment=3911916

    Sorry link not cooperating.

    Page 18 on this thread anyhow I think you should find what you want.


  • #374
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,498 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    bazlers wrote: »
    My forecasts are very poor at best but trying to improve.

    This is the main mans forecast. The best long range forecaster out there.(I don't think too many would argue with that statement) He has quiet a high percentage of accuracy.
    He is also his own worst critic so no high horse with this man.
    Many years of his own research #legend

    But as always three months of a forecast is along time so a lot can change. Very interesting though.

    https://www.netweather...&comment=3911916

    This is the link on net weather where he goes by the name Roger J. Smith.

    Page 18 on this thread the correspondence about his forecast starts.MT Cranium.

    He was referring to MT anyway, not you. His comment was originally posted in the daily forecast thread.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #375
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    He was referring to MT anyway, not you. His comment was originally posted in the daily forecast thread.

    Thought as much just wondering why no one replied to him.


  • #376
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    bazlers wrote: »
    Thought as much just wondering why no one replied to him.

    Maybe its a female but "big nasty" I'll hedge my bets!


  • #377
    Big Nasty
    Registered Users Posts: 22,080 ✭✭✭✭Big Nasty


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    He was referring to MT anyway, not you. His comment was originally posted in the daily forecast thread.

    I still didn't catch MT's Winter Forecast either!


  • #378
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    He was referring to MT anyway, not you. His comment was originally posted in the daily forecast thread.

    Sryanbruen your winter LRF is due soon too. Any little nuggets you would like to share? looking forward to it.


  • #379
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,626 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    KingdomRushed wrote: »
    Well the absolutely amazing charts are being displaced a little by more realistic fare. . Still promising stuff

    The ECM chart, which if it is accurate, last night suggested this, the two lows joining out in the Atlantic, which was similiar to the UKMO, seemed to close the door to a proper Greenland high(for now)

    If we can maintain heights to the north east, it should cause a favourable response in the strat- i think Syranbruen knows the technical term for this- which will hopefully filter down into the troposphere. It's still very much game on, we might just have to wait a bit longer


  • #380
    Captain Snow
    Registered Users Posts: 600 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    Keeps on getting Better:D

    2csa151.png


    2vi4g9u.png


  • #381
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,498 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    ECMWF, Méteo France, UKMO Glosea5, CMCC and DWD seasonal models all combined to make one mean sea level pressure anomaly prediction for Winter 2018-19 shows above average pressure over Greenland and below average pressure just to the south of us and into the Atlantic. Negative NAO. I would initially think this is a battleground scenario but there is an area of above average pressure (albeit weak signal on these models combined) to the north or over Scandinavia. If so, would leave us bringing in cold easterly winds.

    https://twitter.com/edupenabad/status/1062444043517521920?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1062444043517521920&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefault%26f%3Dgavsweathervids1%26t_u%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.gavsweathervids.com%252Fcomments-3.php%26t_d%3DThird%2520Chat%2520And%2520Discussion%2520Thread%2520For%2520GWV%26t_t%3DThird%2520Chat%2520And%2520Discussion%2520Thread%2520For%2520GWV%26s_o%3Ddefault%23version%3Df51929c5205670fde13c1721baf9ca15

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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  • #382
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,498 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    bazlers wrote: »
    Sryanbruen your winter LRF is due soon too. Any little nuggets you would like to share? looking forward to it.

    If I'm honest, I think I've said too much already :P.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #383
    KingdomRushed
    Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    Well well well, ECM, GFS and UKMO have all upgraded in terms of cold potential since their previous runs. Very weird and wonderful model output with a distinct flavor like in February/March and then the heatwave, we are not in Kansas anymore in 2018


  • #384
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Looking increasingly likely there will be a major cold outbreak over Europe in the next 10 days, whether or not this has a meaningful impact (I.e Proper wintry weather) on Ireland remains to be seen at this stage.

    There are some absolute classic charts appearing with more frequency, we all know these huge blocking patterns are hard to shift when in place so encouraging to see as we enter winter proper in the coming weeks. There is a distinct 2010 vibe coming off this output. We have to remember just how rare and deep that cold pattern was though, the chances of a repeat spell of similar intensity less than a decade later at nearly the exact same time of year must be quite slim*

    *Entering a deep solar minimum and having an unprecedented Arctic ice situation may explain such extremes though. 2018 has also been a year of extremes thus far so why not have it continue.

    If we get to this point we are more likely than not to see something special down the line, just day 6 on the UKMO 12z.

    UKMOPNH12_144_1.png

    Day 7 on the GFS 12z - That is one immense block. And where is the polar vortex? Easterlies alternating with North-easterlies is how this pans out.


    GFSOPNH12_168_1.png

    All of this still has plenty of time to go wrong and more often than not it does so keep that in mind. It's just hard not to get a bit excited with these charts given what all of the long range models and a lot of teleconnections have been showing us for the coming winter.
    Also I'm abroad for the winter so it would be typical if I miss a classic...


  • #385
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,434 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Everyone remain calm! :D



    *screw it, go nuts


  • #386
    Tigerandahalf
    Registered Users Posts: 7,811 ✭✭✭Tigerandahalf


    Interesting that there was a post on boards today by a company looking for tractors and operators to run snow ploughs. Someone is getting a forewarning.

    Here was the post
    ....
    Sap Landscapes is a leading provider of Winter Services throughout Ireland.

    We are currently gearing up for snow ploughing if its required this year. We are looking for contractors who have tractors with three-point linkages on the front and are located close to our sites. Our sites would have a 10ft plough located on site to be attached to your tractor.
    We have sites in Clondalkin, Leopordstown, Tallaght, Carrickmines, Athlone and throughout Ireland

    Please contact Kathryn Tohill , Operational Manager at 087 414 11396 to discuss further.
    .....


  • #387
    Reckless Abandonment
    Registered Users Posts: 1,492 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    23hrls4.jpg


  • #388
    Say my name
    Registered Users Posts: 11,026 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    Tigerandahalf wrote: »
    Interesting that there was a post on boards today by a company looking for tractors and operators to run snow ploughs. Someone is getting a forewarning.

    Here was the post
    ....
    Sap Landscapes is a leading provider of Winter Services throughout Ireland.

    We are currently gearing up for snow ploughing if its required this year. We are looking for contractors who have tractors with three-point linkages on the front and are located close to our sites. Our sites would have a 10ft plough located on site to be attached to your tractor.
    We have sites in Clondalkin, Leopordstown, Tallaght, Carrickmines, Athlone and throughout Ireland

    Please contact Kathryn Tohill , Operational Manager at 087 414 11396 to discuss further.
    .....
    Do you mind me asking Tiger what forum was that posted in?

    No sign of it in the Farming and Forestry Forum.


  • #389
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,498 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Say my name wrote: »
    Do you mind me asking Tiger what forum was that posted in?

    No sign of it in the Farming and Forestry Forum.

    Work & Jobs.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=108622573

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #390
    Say my name
    Registered Users Posts: 11,026 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Work & Jobs.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=108622573

    Thanks Sryan. The many sections of boards continue to amaze!

    It'd probably contravene the F and F rules about advertising.


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  • #391
    Tigerandahalf
    Registered Users Posts: 7,811 ✭✭✭Tigerandahalf


    Say my name wrote: »
    Thanks Sryan. The many sections of boards continue to amaze!

    It'd probably contravene the F and F rules about advertising.

    Not sure if they got permission to post or not but the F&F forum would be a better fit.


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