Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

Graces7 · 24-01-2019 9:44am

Periscal wrote: »

I have recently moved back to Slovakia after spending more then a decade in Ireland. We have been blessed with plenty of snow and temperatures below -15C occasionally. Some areas seen snowfalls of decadal proportions. Here a recent video which will reach hearts of all winter and snow lovers https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sqEsLJrEIck

Parts of Canada are now deep in snow; Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, all buried. Family there are well stocked for the siege.. they fly flags to signal they are safe. No flag is needing help. They are facing -20 wind chill

Graces7 · 24-01-2019 9:57am

Periscal wrote: »

We do get at least one very cold month per winter, but as a child I remember cold winters that persisted long, and by mid February we were fed up with it, with this recent pattern of mild Euro winters we appreciate the spells with snow much more, I hope it will not be a norm here as well to wait for some snow flakes like in Ireland, this dreaded +NAO and a possibility of endless Euro High with fog,drizzle and low cloud is very depressing. The benefits of Irish climate are huge, you get the fresh air from the sea and don't have many respiratory issues then us in central European valleys. In some very poor villages they burn anything they see and we have a Red Allert! for pollution, the smog levels - PM10 particles measured in the air are 4 times the level they should be. http://www.shmu.sk/sk/?page=2264 We are no Alps and are poorer neighbors to Austria with much less environmentally considered population

Actually we are well known for asthma and arthritis. They think that some of the ancient beehive huts were for steaming for such complaints. Cannot find the reference I had; was re the hut by Lough Allen in Leitrim
They would crawl inside, light fire and steam the patient

Oh here you go!

http://amayodruid.blogspot.com/2010/07/sweat-houses-in-ireland.html

When I lived inland i had appalling sinus problems. Out here on the coast not a hint of them

ninebeanrows · 24-01-2019 11:28am

Decent 6z GFS this morning and not quite as far out as previously...the nice charts are edging into the slightly more reliable timeframes

First shot at widespread sleet/snow is Tuesday in the WNW flow, some very cold air progged to be wrapped in that..

[IMG]<img src="http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2019012406/gfs-0-132.png?6"/>[/IMG]

gfs-2-132.png?6

And then the potential northeast flow as the low clears through

gfs-0-168.png?6

munsterlegend · 24-01-2019 11:37am

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Decent 6z GFS this morning and not quite as far out as previously...the nice charts are edging into the slightly more reliable timeframes

First shot at widespread sleet/snow is Tuesday in the WNW flow, some very cold air progged to be wrapped in that..

Problem is these uppers always on GFS get downgraded from the Atlantic closer to the event. High ground will do well as always.

sideswipe · 24-01-2019 11:52am

Graces7 wrote: »

When I lived inland i had appalling sinus problems. Out here on the coast not a hint of them

Must be the free saline spray in the air Graces7:pac:

sryanbruen · 24-01-2019 12:05pm

Awful conditions in Dublin 3. Consistent drizzle and overcast. At least it’s relatively mild.

munsterlegend · 24-01-2019 12:10pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Awful conditions in Dublin 3. Consistent drizzle and overcast. At least it’s relatively mild.

Hopefully white stuff next week!! What do you think?!

Loughc · 24-01-2019 12:10pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Awful conditions in Dublin 3. Consistent drizzle and overcast. At least it’s relatively mild.

I was hoping you were going to give us some good news!

Mortelaro · 24-01-2019 12:19pm

Loughc wrote: »

I was hoping you were going to give us some good news!

I'm afraid I haven't any either
Next week if fronts arrive with that slider low it will be too marginal on the east coast for snow,just rain
Tick tock

munsterlegend · 24-01-2019 12:26pm

Mortelaro wrote: »

I'm afraid I haven't any either
Next week if fronts arrive with that slider low it will be too marginal on the east coast for snow,just rain
Tick tock

The north and west could do well. Probably too far south here save for the usual Atlantic muck.

tayto lover · 24-01-2019 12:40pm

Periscal wrote: »

I have recently moved back to Slovakia after spending more then a decade in Ireland. We have been blessed with plenty of snow and temperatures below -15C occasionally. Some areas seen snowfalls of decadal proportions. Here a recent video which will reach hearts of all winter and snow lovers https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sqEsLJrEIck

Snowvakia.

Mortelaro · 24-01-2019 12:56pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

The north and west could do well. Probably too far south here save for the usual Atlantic muck.

For fronts,depending on their trajectory early Dec 2017 would be the template
Couple of inches carlow town
Rain in Tullow eastwards
Snow in Tipp and eventually Waterford
The latter wet stuff on a marginal 0.5c dp
Snow none the less
Much of Midlands got snow and into west
Front might be different this time
Temps any higher and all rain

Gonzo · 24-01-2019 1:19pm

mild drizzly muck this morning, horrible morning.

Captain Snow · 24-01-2019 1:26pm

Cold starts to set in on Sunday so we are not in FI land anymore.

Cold Kicks fully in on Tuesday Potential snow event Tuesday to Wednesday.

It gets very interesting Thursday. Plenty of snow showers from the NE.

Mortelaro · 24-01-2019 1:35pm

It's the 6z though
Good for 24 to 48hrs
A close relation to the pub run after that

That being said as we all know minor differences make big changes down stream
Anything could happen really but the form horse has been for models at even 48hrs not to pick up on a flatter Atlantic pattern scuppering cold in our region

Gonzo · 24-01-2019 1:42pm

definitely there will be some parts of Ireland that will do very well with snow over the next 1-2 weeks. If I was living in Northern Ireland I would be very excited right now.

I am not ruling out snow for Dublin or Leinster in general, but I think we got to wait till closer to the time to see what the temperatures, precipitation amounts, dew points, wet bulp and wind directions will be like in order for us to achieve lying snow. Worst case scenario would be that I think most eastern parts should at least get a dusting or a few of them, but that any lying snow may not last too long, particularly anything that settles during daylight hours.

I still think a proper easterly will get going at some point but this could be second half of February or into March.

Mortelaro · 24-01-2019 1:46pm

3 words

Manage your expectations

munsterlegend · 24-01-2019 2:16pm

Mortelaro wrote: »

3 words

Manage your expectations

The Atlantic is never to be trusted for snow.

pauldry · 24-01-2019 2:19pm

Meanwhile its 12c today so the first 55 days of Winter have all been milder than normal bar 3 or 4. Big Cold surely must be on cards. And from this weekend its starts. The mild and cold are in a running battle but cold will win out n we will be FI ing mild weather come March

Loughc · 24-01-2019 2:19pm

Mortelaro wrote: »

3 words

Manage your expectations

NEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEVER!!!!

:pac:

But in all seriousness I don't expect to see anything other than rain down these parts.

KingJeremy · 24-01-2019 2:37pm

pauldry wrote: »

The mild and cold are in a running battle but cold will win out n we will be FI ing mild weather come March

Excuse my ignorance...again...but what is this FI you lot keep referring to?

Gonzo · 24-01-2019 2:41pm

ECM still showing that an easterly is possible on 1st of February, this also runs into 2nd of February. This backs into a north-easterly on 3rd of February.

UKMO also hinting at a possible north-easterly on 30th January.

GFS doesn't quite get there with properly easterlys, but still looks very wintry next Wednesday and Thursday.

sryanbruen · 24-01-2019 2:43pm

KingJeremy wrote: »

Excuse my ignorance...again...but what is this FI you lot keep referring to?

Fantasy Island - most unreliable period and should be only treated as for fun sakes.

MJohnston · 24-01-2019 3:05pm

KingJeremy wrote: »

Excuse my ignorance...again...but what is this FI you lot keep referring to?

FI = Fantasy Island. Specifically this refers to model charts that are showing events more than 120 hours (5 days) from their run time.

They are referred to as 'fantasy' because that 120 hour range is a vague point at which model charts turn from "fairly accurate" to "increasingly inaccurate".

There are a number of reasons for this, first and foremost is the inherent unpredictability of weather systems compounds over time.

But also, while there are lots of weather models that run up to 120 hours, there are only 3 freely available ones that run beyond that - GFS (runs up to +384 hours), ECM (runs to +240 hours), and UKMO (only to +144 hours).

So, within the 120 hour range, you have more model charts to consult, which means you can spot trends more easily, and be more certain about your predictions (or indeed, more certain that things are going to be unpredictable). With only 2 models running really long range, there's less consensus to pull from to form your predictions.

The "Fantasy Island" cut off being at 120 hours isn't really a hard and fast rule - sometimes conditions can be really unpredictable that you'll see people saying things like "FI is more like +48 at the minute", which just means that the charts aren't showing any kind of trend for prediction certainty. Conversely sometimes the charts can be completely accurate even 10 days out, but you don't really know that until things get into a more reliable timeframe (although you can have more certainty when charts in the FI timeframe don't vary much from run-to-run).

Hope this helps!

KingJeremy · 24-01-2019 3:58pm

MJohnston cheers for the explanation ðŸ‘

KingJeremy · 24-01-2019 4:02pm

Met are currently forecasting 0 degrees and some snow showers for my location for Wednesday next week, woo hoo...but after MJohnstons explanation and this is 6 days out I guess this is FI *sad face*

Rougies · 24-01-2019 4:17pm

KingJeremy wrote: »

Met are currently forecasting 0 degrees and some snow showers for my location for Wednesday next week, woo hoo...but after MJohnstons explanation and this is 6 days out I guess this is FI *sad face*

Yeah at that range it's data automatically pulled from the ECM, and very much in FI territory with the current model output chaos.

Here's the corresponding ECM temperature chart for noon Wednesday.
https://meteologix.com/ie/model-charts/euro/ireland/temperature/20190130-1200z.html

KingJeremy · 24-01-2019 5:03pm

Rougies wrote: »

Yeah at that range it's data automatically pulled from the ECM, and very much in FI territory with the current model output chaos.

Here's the corresponding ECM temperature chart for noon Wednesday.
https://meteologix.com/ie/model-charts/euro/ireland/temperature/20190130-1200z.html

Well boll*x to that

. Hopefully over the next few days it doesn’t change too much and stays on the cold side

pauldry · 24-01-2019 5:10pm

All the extremes get moderated in the end....bar 2010 didnt.

So prob similar to this Tuesday 3 to 6c and wintry in Ulster

snowstorm445 · 24-01-2019 5:23pm

GFS 12z has a slider snow event for the southern half of Ireland next Wednesday! To be taken with a pinch of salt of course, even if it verifies the location will move with each run.

Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

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