Sligo/Leitrim General Election! 2015/2016?

Davy P · 18-09-2015 5:14pm

Laurel_Patente wrote: »

So would it be fair to say that it is one seat each for FF (McSharry), SF (McManus), and FG, with the last seat a straight shootout between a second FG candidate and Scanlon, or a strong independent who hasn't yet declared?

Ye all seem to be writing off Leitrim from electing a TD , Ill be putting my house on Martin Kenny getting elected from the West Cavan - Leitrim area , he could get 7000 first preference votes, which will keep him in the race long enough for other Leitrim candidates to be eliminated. So that would be 2 SF. 1 FF. and 1 FG.

Laurel_Patente · 18-09-2015 7:50pm

Davy P wrote: »

Ye all seem to be writing off Leitrim from electing a TD , Ill be putting my house on Martin Kenny getting elected from the West Cavan - Leitrim area , he could get 7000 first preference votes, which will keep him in the race long enough for other Leitrim candidates to be eliminated. So that would be 2 SF. 1 FF. and 1 FG.

Kenny got 4,637 votes in the 2011 election on the first count and increased that to 5,906 in the by election, but suffered badly on transfers on both occasions. This time granted you are talking the whole Leitrim electoral area, but North Leitrim / Sligo will be encouraged to vote McManus 1 and Kenny 2, and I just can't see that vote being there; either in a surplus or in transfers to push both of them over the line. Kenny (or McManus if he ends up trailing) won't be transfer friendly, regardless of whether it comes down to a Leitrim issue, as FF will end up putting on a Leitrim candidate too to mop up that vote.

It will be close but tentatively I would see the last seat going to FF if (and it's an If) McSharry has a high surplus to distribute and if votes transfer to a second FF candidate.

It could happen for Kenny but SF would have to be polling considerably higher than what they are now to do so.

For Forks Sake · 18-09-2015 10:29pm

Laurel_Patente wrote: »

It could happen for Kenny but SF would have to be polling considerably higher than what they are now to do so.

There is also the issue of SF's transfer toxicity....

Laurel_Patente · 18-09-2015 10:37pm

For Forks Sake wrote: »

There is also the issue of SF's transfer toxicity....

Absolutely. Both Kenny and McManus will be strong at the start, could see a situation where they are both in the top 4, but once the transfers start coming in you will see lower placed right wing independents and the smaller government party TDs get the FF and FG candidates over the line and squeeze the vote for them.

Also, if the local elections are a barometer, SF's poll estimates will translate into a slightly lower vote share, so unless they are pushing at least 25% nationwide it's not a runner.

Now, as to whether McManus or Kenny will take that seat for SF, I think Kenny has the experience of contesting previous elections, but with Sligo being the major urban centre where votes will come from I could see McManus getting a bigger push from HQ and eventually getting over the line.

Henlars67 · 22-09-2015 7:51pm

SF do quite well on transfers in this constituency.

Michael Colreavy got around 3,000 transfers in the last GE.
Thomas Healy transferred well in the local elections as did the SF candidates in the Ballinamore area in Leitrim

Geuze · 14-10-2015 10:30am

Can somebody remind me of the candidates so far?

FG = John Perry + ???

FF = M McSharry + Eamon Scanlon ++???

SF = McManus + Kenny [Leitrim]

Lab = ???

EuskalHerria · 14-10-2015 11:34am

Geuze wrote: »

Can somebody remind me of the candidates so far?

FG = John Perry + ???

FF = M McSharry + Eamon Scanlon ++???

SF = McManus + Kenny [Leitrim]

Lab = ???

Fine Gael convention is this Friday. It looks possible John perry won't get a nomination as they go for a Sligo and Leitrim candidate strategy. Most likely Commiskey and McLoughlin if reports are true.

Confirmed candidates are:

Nigel Gallagher (PBP)
Marie Casserly (Ind)
Des Guckian (Ind)
Martin Kenny (SF)
Chris MacManus (SF)
Susan O'keeffe (Lab)
Marc MacSharry (FF)
Eamon Scanlon (FF)

Possibly one or two not there. There's a Twitter with news and tweets on candidates:
https://mobile.twitter.com/slsdwcelec

mountainy man · 17-10-2015 1:31am

News just in that John Perry not selected and the candidates for FG will be Tony Mc Loughlin and Gerry Reynolds.

For Forks Sake · 17-10-2015 11:06am

mountainy man wrote: »

News just in that John Perry not selected and the candidates for FG will be Tony Mc Loughlin and Gerry Reynolds.

Hardly surprising given that 1. they'd need a Leitrim based candidate given the expansion of the constituency, and 2. the only time Perry has made headlines has been the latest in a series of personal embarrassments to I'd say they waited to quietly drop him.

EuskalHerria · 20-11-2015 6:59pm

Confirmed candidates are:

Declan Bree (Ind/Right2Change)
Marie Casserly (Ind)
Finbarr Filan (Renua)
Nigel Gallagher (PBP)
Des Guckian (Ind)
Martin Kenny (SF)
Chris MacManus (SF)
Marc MacSharry (FF)
Tony McLoughlin (FG)
Susan O'Keeffe (Lab)
Leslie O'Hora (Green)
Gerry Reynolds (FG)
Eamon Scanlon (FF)
Gary Smylie (Ind)
Bernard Sweeney (Ind)

Possibly one or two not there. There's a Twitter with news and tweets on candidates:
https://mobile.twitter.com/slsdwcelec

Also good info here: http://adriankavanaghelections.org

Including a break down of the candidates and using recent polls, a projection for the seats.
Currently at 1 each for SF, FF & FG with one seat going to an independent.

red sean · 20-11-2015 7:56pm

There's no independent there capable of taking a seat. Last seat will be between FF and FG.

For Forks Sake · 20-11-2015 10:20pm

red sean wrote: »

There's no independent there capable of taking a seat. Last seat will be between FF and FG.

I'm inclined to agree. Most of the Independents listed above, with the exception of Casserly, will be fishing in the same waters for votes.

rizzodun · 20-11-2015 11:53pm

Don't see Finbarr Filan mentioned, but his campaign will be tough...

realitykeeper · 21-11-2015 9:54pm

For Forks Sake wrote: »

I'm inclined to agree.

Are you now?

JTL · 25-11-2015 6:49pm

John Perry fighting until the bitter end to get nominated...

Buford T Justice · 25-11-2015 9:11pm

Yea, best of luck to him, since he's as honest as his leader.

Geuze · 02-12-2015 1:43pm

The Irish Times last Sat suggested an outcome of:

2 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF.

Laurel_Patente · 04-12-2015 4:12pm

Geuze wrote: »

The Irish Times last Sat suggested an outcome of:

2 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF.

Yup that sounds about right, unless McSharry gets a very high vote and transfers well.

Geuze · 22-12-2015 4:14pm

Perry to be added to FG list of candidates.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/1222/755712-perry-fg-election/

3 FG candidates - does this risk splitting the vote................???

Buford T Justice · 22-12-2015 7:45pm

Geuze wrote: »

Perry to be added to FG list of candidates.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/1222/755712-perry-fg-election/

3 FG candidates - does this risk splitting the vote................???

He'll be popular with the party.

JTL · 22-12-2015 8:16pm

I don't think he cares..

'What's in it for me'

For Forks Sake · 22-12-2015 9:18pm

Geuze wrote: »

Perry to be added to FG list of candidates.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/1222/755712-perry-fg-election/

3 FG candidates - does this risk splitting the vote................???

That was precisely the reason FG (well apart from every mention of him in the media being in connection with yet more personal and financial embarrassment) were more than happy to jettison him in favour of having one candidate from either end of the constituency, which made a lot more sense.

Necro · 23-12-2015 12:48am

My two cents? It will make no difference as he'll be vastly outpolled by Scanlon in a FF favoured Ballymote area. Other FG candidates won't make a huge impact on that particular area regardless of his involvement.

Mint Sauce · 09-01-2016 12:08am

Canvassers have started.

T-Bird · 10-01-2016 5:48pm

Mint Sauce wrote: »

Canvassers have started.

That reminds me, I must renew my "No junk mail or election leaflets" sign at the front door. It actually worked a treat. It saves me from picking them up and filling the recycle bin with them...

Mint Sauce · 22-01-2016 4:03pm

Kinda surprised this has not came up yet either on this thread, general chit chat, stores closing/opening, OConnell St, or the Hughes Bridge threads. But seen on social media that Tony McLaughlin of Fine Gael had announced the News of 2 million worth of funding for community development in Cranmore, and the long awaited OConnell Street redevelopment. In the same conversation it was also mentioned that the 'empty' north bound lane on Hughes Bridge would be opened when improvements are completed as far a the Rosses Point junction.

Now dont know about the Cranmore developments, but I wonder would the OConnell Street plans do anything for the current state of empty units around town, counted at least 11 or 12 on OConnell street alone today, cant remember if that included Bodricks/The Irish House. Or is the empty units and the chamberr of commerce something that local government be focusing on first, then redevelopment of the towns streets.

Or is it all just pre election hype.

rizzodun · 23-01-2016 1:45pm

Mint Sauce wrote: »

Kinda surprised this has not came up yet either on this thread, general chit chat, stores closing/opening, OConnell St, or the Hughes Bridge threads. But seen on social media that Tony McLaughlin of Fine Gael had announced the News of 2 million worth of funding for community development in Cranmore, and the long awaited OConnell Street redevelopment. In the same conversation it was also mentioned that the 'empty' north bound lane on Hughes Bridge would be opened when improvements are completed as far a the Rosses Point junction.

Now dont know about the Cranmore developments, but I wonder would the OConnell Street plans do anything for the current state of empty units around town, counted at least 11 or 12 on OConnell street alone today, cant remember if that included Bodricks/The Irish House. Or is the empty units and the chamberr of commerce something that local government be focusing on first, then redevelopment of the towns streets.

Or is it all just pre election hype.

IMO the O' Connell st developments will do nothing to improve the town, it was closed off before, and that was during the boom times, and it had a negative impact, purely because the traffic situation in town is so bad currently, with all the traffic from North to South and vice versa being funnelled through the same side of town. There needs to be an alternative route across town for it to have any benefit. Secondary to that Sligo just doesn't have the population to sustain big chains that people keep whacking on about and wishing they would set up here, nor does it have the proper infrastructure (car parks etc.) to attract out of town shoppers.

If it made sense to the likes of M&S they'd already be here, and Tesco is a prime example, possible the worst store in Ireland and it possibly will never get any investment.

In short, Sligo is not, and never will be a city, and I wish politicians would quit spouting that bulls*it and just deal with what we have here and improve that, instead of having delusions of grandeur about our current status.

Finbar Filan's interview about his focus is to reinstate the Borough Council if he gets elected another prime example.

worlds goodest teecher · 05-02-2016 7:37pm

Anyone else have candidates just drop leaflets through the letterbox and not bother knocking/ringing even when there is clearly someone in the house? Those candidates definitely won't be getting my vote.

EuskalHerria · 05-02-2016 11:25pm

worlds goodest teecher wrote: »

Anyone else have candidates just drop leaflets through the letterbox and not bother knocking/ringing even when there is clearly someone in the house? Those candidates definitely won't be getting my vote.

Yes. Can understand why some are cautious about knocking on doors. I've seen a LOT of leaflets from 3 people in particular blowing around the streets. I won't name them, might not be fair. (Perry, McLoughlin and McSharry)

Laurel_Patente · 05-02-2016 11:44pm

I live in Donegal, have had one canvassing team around so far (Nigel Gallagher from PBP) and the canvasser was well able to give his spiel about what his candidate stood for. Will consider him for a preference even if I wouldn't exactly share his policies.

Have had two seperate leaflets left in for Tony McLoughlin even when I've been in the house, poor form like.

Sligo/Leitrim General Election! 2015/2016?

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