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2016 Election

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    #32
    Mjollnir
    Registered Users Posts: 888 ✭✭✭Mjollnir


    Amerika wrote: »
    I didn't say they called the debate for Ryan, I asked when CNN, ABC and CNBC became part of the right wing bubble? But I do see how some could take it that way.


    CNN: Ryan 48% - Biden 44%

    George Stephanopoulos, the face of ABC political team originally picked Joe Biden as the winner but later hedged and acknowledged that "Ryan held his own – did not make any big mistakes; humanized himself, when he had to humanize himself." Coming from ABC I take that as a kinda win... at least proof they’re not part of the "right wing bubble."

    You directly implied that.

    Again, why are you lying about your own statements?


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    #33
    InTheTrees
    Registered Users Posts: 9,900 ✭✭✭InTheTrees


    Conas wrote: »
    On the Republican side, I like Christie and Rand Paul the most. They'd be a strong ticket if they were to run together.

    Christie's done. The stuff coming out about his administration in New Jersey is pretty damming.


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    #34
    Amerika
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,176 ✭✭✭Amerika


    Brian? wrote: »
    In 2013 he took $900 million out of state aid to education.

    In 2011 he took $500 million out of the Medicaid budget.

    Could you provide me the links so I can see the story behind the statement shock value?


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    #35
    Conas
    Registered Users Posts: 1,071 ✭✭✭Conas


    InTheTrees wrote: »
    Christie's done. The stuff coming out about his administration in New Jersey is pretty damming.

    Yeah, but give it a year or so and it might blow over. If Christie is done, then the Republicans are done. I've said it time and time again, the Republicans are going to have to have a total revamp of their policies if they are to stand a chance, and the less they obsess about Foreign Policy the better America and the world will be. Less of the tough talking macho men, and nominate someone who puts the American people first, not Israel and America's 1%.

    Something tells me that Marco Rubio could be the dark horse, and a person to watch out for. Wasn't it Time magazine who referred to him as the 'Republican Saviour'. However having listen to him speak, he's no different than the rest of them with his policies. I liked him at first, but now I don't.


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    #36
    InTheTrees
    Registered Users Posts: 9,900 ✭✭✭InTheTrees


    I saw a story this morning (sorry no link) that Jeb Bush was the front runner.

    Funny.

    The lesson is that the republican candidate who stays completely quiet is most likely to lead the pack. As soon as any of these people open their mouths their support starts to fall.


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    #37
    mikemac1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,395 ✭✭✭✭mikemac1


    Brian Schweitzer former Democratic governer from Montana ftw

    Paddypower giving odds of 66/1

    Comes across as an aw shucks guy in jeans and demin shirt but he is very sharp, speaks Arabic and spent years working abroad on irrigation projects.

    Had a prime time slot at the 2012 Democratic convention and got the crowd going. Ok, doesn't mean a whole lot but he can sure work a crowd

    He even had a set of branding irons he would use to veto bills in Montana :D

    Popular with the military and introduced a counselling program for vets though I dont know a whole lot about that. Strongly against gun control, to be expected in a place like Montana

    Main area of interest seems to be energy and he is always talking about ending Americas dependence on foreign oil. Even fox news bring him when they someone to talk about energy

    Grandmother was Irish and he has visited Waterford so we can claim him as our own ;)

    Age: will be 61 in 2016

    I think he has a shot.


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    #38
    banquo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,487 ✭✭✭banquo


    I remember him from the 2012 DNC, he was the only pretty good speaker - ain't nobody got nothin' on Zell Miller from the 2004 RNC - and CNN spent some time with him in a desperate "Thank God, somebody interesting" kind of way.

    66/1 is fair odds for the nomination, but when the field is Hillary vs Biden, and Biden unlikely in my books to get it - or even run - then 66/1 is totally worth a fiver.


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    #39
    Amerika
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,176 ✭✭✭Amerika


    I’m on the fence now about a Hillary Clinton presidency. I’m not seeing the love for her outside the democratic party at the moment. And you can’t count out the fairness factor. There is often a sense of fairness in US politics in the presidential elections. We’re going to have a democrat president in for two terms now. Things haven’t changed much since he took office and a jobless recovery doesn’t bode well with the average voter. As long as the GOP has a reasonable candidate, I think you may see a lot of people on the democratic side and the independents deciding to give the GOP a chance this time around. And the way politics look at the current moment, the GOP will hold the House, indications are good they might capture the Senate in 2014, and maybe even the Presidency in 2016. Things are looking up! :cool:


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    #40
    MadYaker
    Registered Users Posts: 12,142 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    But who do they have though?? Chris Christie and Scott Walker seem to be favourites but both are already have events from their pasts come back to haunt them. I can't see either of them beating Clinton.


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    #41
    Amerika
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,176 ✭✭✭Amerika


    MadYaker wrote: »
    But who do they have though?? Chris Christie and Scott Walker seem to be favourites but both are already have events from their pasts come back to haunt them. I can't see either of them beating Clinton.

    I think the Christie and Scott issues will be all but forgotten when it matters. And what experience does Hillary have to fix the economy? I’m starting to hear grumblings that the electorate is beginning to think that perhaps they made a mistake not electing Mitt Romney last time around. People might start to think that he is indeed the best person to concentrate on jobs if the real unemployment number is somewhere between 20% to 24%. If there is another market adjustment down in the next year, I’d say look to Romney. And Romney is someone both the GOP establishment and the conservatives would get behind if their other choices are Christie, Scott and Paul.


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    #42
    Mjollnir
    Registered Users Posts: 888 ✭✭✭Mjollnir


    Amerika wrote: »
    I think the Christie and Scott issues will be all but forgotten when it matters. And what experience does Hillary have to fix the economy? I’m starting to hear grumblings that the electorate is beginning to think that perhaps they made a mistake not electing Mitt Romney last time around. People might start to think that he is indeed the best person to concentrate on jobs if the real unemployment number is somewhere between 20% to 24%. If there is another market adjustment down in the next year, I’d say look to Romney. And Romney is someone both the GOP establishment and the conservatives would get behind if their other choices are Christie, Scott and Paul.

    It's always sunny in Happy Make Believe Land!


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    #43
    Get off my lawn!
    Closed Accounts Posts: 68 ✭✭Get off my lawn!


    Amerika wrote: »
    I’m on the fence now about a Hillary Clinton presidency. I’m not seeing the love for her outside the democratic party at the moment.

    Why would you expect to? :confused:
    Amerika wrote: »
    And you can’t count out the fairness factor. There is often a sense of fairness in US politics in the presidential elections. We’re going to have a democrat president in for two terms now.

    Um, what? When did this happen? :confused:

    Party fatigue is not the same thing as 'fairness', whatever that means.
    Amerika wrote: »
    Things haven’t changed much since he took office and a jobless recovery doesn’t bode well with the average voter.

    But what are Republicans offering in return? Because the Reagan playbook is old and tired.
    Amerika wrote: »
    As long as the GOP has a reasonable candidate, I think you may see a lot of people on the democratic side and the independents deciding to give the GOP a chance this time around.

    Yeah, good luck with that! :D
    Amerika wrote: »
    And the way politics look at the current moment, the GOP will hold the House, indications are good they might capture the Senate in 2014, and maybe even the Presidency in 2016. Things are looking up! :cool:

    See your previous statement. :pac:


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    #44
    Magicknight94
    Registered Users Posts: 4 ✭Magicknight94


    I hope mrs. Hillary Clinton will become the president.


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    #45
    Brian?
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 20,767 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    Amerika wrote: »
    I think the Christie and Scott issues will be all but forgotten when it matters. And what experience does Hillary have to fix the economy? I’m starting to hear grumblings that the electorate is beginning to think that perhaps they made a mistake not electing Mitt Romney last time around. People might start to think that he is indeed the best person to concentrate on jobs if the real unemployment number is somewhere between 20% to 24%. If there is another market adjustment down in the next year, I’d say look to Romney. And Romney is someone both the GOP establishment and the conservatives would get behind if their other choices are Christie, Scott and Paul.

    Romney has the stink of loser clinging to him though. He hasn't a hope of winning the nomination.

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




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    #46
    Amerika
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,176 ✭✭✭Amerika


    Brian? wrote: »
    Romney He hasn't a hope of winning the nomination.

    Stranger things have happened. In a recent poll in New Hampshire (where it all begins) Mitt Romney is the 2016 Republican front-runner. But I really don’t see him putting himself through another election unless the demand for him to run was overwhelming.

    (And in other news, today is national "Tell A Fairy Tale Day!" over here -- Or as those responsible in the Obama administration for keeping the public informed about ObamaCare would call it... "Wednesday.") ;)


  • Options
    #47
    Black Swan
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 47,223 CMod ✭✭✭✭Black Swan


    Amerika wrote: »
    Stranger things have happened. In a recent poll in New Hampshire (where it all begins) Mitt Romney is the 2016 Republican front-runner. But I really don’t see him putting himself through another election unless the demand for him to run was overwhelming.
    Barring past exceptions like Richard Nixon, I would think that the GOP will bury its dead and offer other candidates for the 2016 presidency rather than resurrecting Mitt Romney. It's still pretty early to narrow down the field for 2016, given that the real focus will be on the November 2014 mid-terms. After November, things should heat up for both major parties.


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    #48
    Brian?
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 20,767 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    Amerika wrote: »
    I’m on the fence now about a Hillary Clinton presidency. I’m not seeing the love for her outside the democratic party at the moment. And you can’t count out the fairness factor. There is often a sense of fairness in US politics in the presidential elections. We’re going to have a democrat president in for two terms now. Things haven’t changed much since he took office and a jobless recovery doesn’t bode well with the average voter. As long as the GOP has a reasonable candidate, I think you may see a lot of people on the democratic side and the independents deciding to give the GOP a chance this time around. And the way politics look at the current moment, the GOP will hold the House, indications are good they might capture the Senate in 2014, and maybe even the Presidency in 2016. Things are looking up! :cool:

    The GOP may capture te senate? Name those seats, I can't see it.

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




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    #49
    Black Swan
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 47,223 CMod ✭✭✭✭Black Swan


    Amerika wrote: »
    I’m on the fence now about a Hillary Clinton presidency.
    She looked totally exhausted to the point of burnout at the end of her first term as Sec of State. The Presidency is even more stressful, so I do not think she would be a good choice in 2016.


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    #50
    Corkfeen
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,940 ✭✭✭Corkfeen


    Black Swan wrote: »
    She looked totally exhausted to the point of burnout at the end of her first term as Sec of State. The Presidency is even more stressful, so I do not think she would be a good choice in 2016.

    Yep, inclined to believe her recent health issues etc will work against her in terms of even getting the nomination.


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    #51
    Amerika
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,176 ✭✭✭Amerika


    Brian? wrote: »
    The GOP may capture te senate? Name those seats, I can't see it.

    Democrats are defending 21 seats, seven of which are in states that President Barack Obama lost in 2012.

    With WV’s Jay Rockefeller (D), SD’s Tim Johnson (D) and IA’s Tim Johnson (D) all retiring, the chance of republican wins there are very good. And with MT’s Max Baucus (D) appointed ambassador to China, and shaky outlooks for the campaigns of LA’s Mary Landrieu (D) and AK’s Mark Beigch (D), the possibility of a GOP takeover of the Senate if very good. I think Michigan and Virginia are also vulnerable, and if Scott Brown jumps into the race in NH he could very well defeat Jeanne Shaheen (D). I only see potential problems for republicans in the 2014 mid-term race for GA and KY.

    Now add to that president Obama’s falling job approval rating. History doesn’t fair well for the presidents party in mid-term elections when job approval ratings are poor. Some analyses from RealClearPolitics.

    chart1-2-20.gif

    chart3-2-20.gif

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2014/02/20/computing_democrats_risk_of_losing_the_senate_121640.html

    And since the 1970’s, Senate election history doesn’t bode well by the president's party in mid-term elections, especially when the presidency approval ratings are south of the border.

    http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/mid-term_elections.php


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    #52
    OLeary in the Grave
    Registered Users Posts: 4 ✭OLeary in the Grave


    What odds would I get on Martin O'Malley (Dem) defeating Scott Walker (Rep) in November 2016?


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