Autumn 2014

maquiladora · 11-11-2014 7:09pm

12Z EURO4. Sustained winds touching 65 mph on this chart as it approaches Cornwall. Gales along the east coast here.

12Z ECM also showing the strongest winds heading for southwest England and Wales.

ECU1-48.GIF?11-0

Looks like the east coast won't see any severe winds if this verifies but the track could still change before Thursday, and the GFS shows the possibility of another secondary low spinning up.

goat2 · 12-11-2014 1:08pm

i am wondering what the weather will be like on the 20th and 21th november am hoping for no wind and rain on those days, need dry and calm

maquiladora · 12-11-2014 1:13pm

A risk of gusts briefly reaching ~110km/h on the east coast tomorrow if the 06Z WRF verified.

nmm_uk1-11-30-0.png?12-12

There is an orange and yellow warning for rainfall and I guess there will be a wind warning issued later.

STATUS ORANGE

Rainfall Warning for Dublin, Louth, Wexford, Wicklow, Meath and Monaghan

A spell of heavy rain on Thursday followed by another spell of heavy rain on Thursday night will give rainfall accumulation of 40 to 60 mm with localised flooding.
Issued:
Wednesday 12 November 2014 11:00
Valid:
Thursday 13 November 2014 06:00 to Friday 14 November 2014 09:00

STATUS YELLOW

Rainfall Warning for Munster, Connacht, Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Longford, Offaly, Westmeath, Cavan and Donegal

Heavy rain overnight and on Thursday will give rainfall accumulations of 25 to 40 mm with localised flooding
Issued:
Monday 10 November 2014 20:00
Valid:
Thursday 13 November 2014 00:01 to Thursday 13 November 2014 20:00

Larbre34 · 12-11-2014 3:51pm

goat2 wrote: »

i am wondering what the weather will be like on the 20th and 21th november am hoping for no wind and rain on those days, need dry and calm

With very little confidence, at the moment it is showing average temps, 8/10 in a slack SW flow with showers in Munster and Connacht. That will change many times before the forecast is issued on the 19th.

ninebeanrows · 12-11-2014 8:17pm

The polar charts are beginning to look cack, that PV lobe over eastern Canada is going to intensify the jetstream across the North Atlantic, can't be too optimistic about the next 3-4 weeks.....increasingly zonal, wet and increasingly stormy would be my 4 week outlook...

What a difference a week makes!

rickdangerouss · 12-11-2014 9:40pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

The polar charts are beginning to look cack, that PV lobe over eastern Canada is going to intensify the jetstream across the North Atlantic, can't be too optimistic about the next 3-4 weeks.....increasingly zonal, wet and increasingly stormy would be my 4 week outlook...

What a difference a week makes!

Maybe it's a few runs, the trend could show up again.

Simon, has a about 30% chance of a December cold snap. better than last year anyway.