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Israel attacks Syria

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Gatling wrote: »
    I see Israel made a statement saying they will go after Iran's proxies and iran direct if they are pushed ,

    Did I just read a claim Syrians want Assad ,

    According to the Kremlin ?


    Benjamin Netanyahu’s warning that Israel is prepared to go to war against Iran itself, not just its proxies in Syria and elsewhere, leaves no doubt about how rapidly the crisis in the Middle East is escalating towards another potentially major conflagration. Coming after last week’s heavy Israeli bombardment of Iranian military bases in Syria and the shooting down of the first sophisticated Israeli fighter aircraft in 30 years, the significance of the Israeli Prime Minister issuing his warning to an audience at the Munich Security Conference that included Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif cannot be overstated

    Call me a cynic, but i can't help feeling Bibi will do anything to distract from his domestic difficulties.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The strangest move of the war the Syrian government has ordered troops to defend Afrin. They have now arrived. Why would you start a war with Turkey? This is a stupid move to involve a Nato member.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43131600

    What if the Kurds decide to retreat or vacate..., leaving Assad's tropps in charge. This might be acceptable to Erodgan. Not so to the Americans, but he doesn't seem to care what his Americans friend think since they refused to hand over the alleged organiser of the coup against him


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre




    Assad will help the Kurds now because he wants Raqqa back without military means. He has also awarded Russia with the tender for developing and refurbishing the oil infrastructure. The second largest oil field in Syria is in Kurdish control. There is currently a bit of conflict in Deir ez-Zeir over it...people think Russia and the US will have significant clashes over it but we will see.

    I don't think the Americans will allow the Kurds to hand it over to Assad's troops. The bombing last week at the al tanf(?) airbase was a clear warning to the Russians and Syrians to back off from this area. Putin has gotten the message. He is not going to get in a direct confrontation with America over any oilfield in Syria.


  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Gringo180 wrote: »
    The Zionist regime to go to war against Iran? I highly doubt it. They usually get the Americans to do there dirty work

    Iran is no Iraq, Israel would not dare launch a full scale military assault on Iran unless they want there little settler state destroyed.

    No

    And Israel have repeatedly shown that they fear no country or countries .
    They want a war with Iran and that's what we will get ,
    Who's going to stop them


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,893 ✭✭✭Cheerful Spring


    Pepefrogok wrote: »
    NATO doesn't have to aid turkey as they are invading a third-party, it's a defence pact.

    Nato is basically the American military. If Iran comes to the aid of Syria it's Nato who likely is bombing. We not there yet but it's a dangerous move for the Syrians. Turkey and Saudi Arabia and UAE sat on the sidelines supporting the rebels fight against Assad. Turkey and Syria in open fighting could spread.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,893 ✭✭✭Cheerful Spring


    What if the Kurds decide to retreat or vacate..., leaving Assad's tropps in charge. This might be acceptable to Erodgan. Not so to the Americans, but he doesn't seem to care what his Americans friend think since they refused to hand over the alleged organiser of the coup against him

    Turkey would likely redraw with guarantees, but will the Kurdish groups give up land they gained from beating Isis?


  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Turkey would likely redraw with guarantees, but will the Kurdish groups give up land they gained from beating Isis?

    See one of the problems with the Kurds is they have taken land which was Originally Kurdish lands that Assad senior pushed them off and Populated with Arabs and other groups loyal to the family ,
    I know on several occasions in the past when international media was visiting areas that the Kurds had taken off Isis , suddenly you would get buses of people suddenly appearing out of nowhere and saying now that the Kurds had beaten Isis they had come back to live in the area and the Kurds can now leave ,

    It's odd that the Assad regime is claiming the Kurds asked him to sent government troops to defend against the Turks , saying it's their job to defend sovereign syria ,yet the Kurds are saying it's part of their home state


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Turkey would likely redraw with guarantees, but will the Kurdish groups give up land they gained from beating Isis?

    I see what you mean. Turkey will only retreat if they get a guarantee that Assad won't hand it over to the Kurds. It seems no matter what happens the Kurds will end up being screwed. They will bitter towards America over this.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,378 ✭✭✭BuilderPlumber


    Gringo180 wrote: »
    The Zionist regime to go to war against Iran? I highly doubt it. They usually get the Americans to do there dirty work, they practically have infiltrated congress and call the shots with regards America's foreign policy in the region.

    Iran is no Iraq, Israel would not dare launch a full scale military assault on Iran unless they want there little settler state destroyed.

    The last thing the world needs is another Middle East war involving a major oil supplier. What would happen if there was a war lead by America and Israel against Iran?

    Short-term: 4 weeks of aerial bombings decimate the Revolutionary Guards. Defiance from Ali Khamenei and others, appeals for compromise from Hassan Rouhani and other moderates. By week 5, Hassan Rouhani and other moderates concede the Islamic Republic of Iran is defeated and walk away to do a deal and look to the future. By week 6, ground troops enter and deal with the last few fighters who have no true belief and the Iranian army concede defeat and 90% of Iran is under American/Israeli control. Khamenei continues to be defiant but has a plan to go. By week 8, Khamenei flees and/or is killed and if he survives, he goes into hiding. Islamic Republic of Iran is defeated within 2 months.
    Medium term: During the war to topple the Khamenei/Revolutionary Guards regime, the Straits of Hormuz were mined and boats harassed by pirates loyal to Revolutionary Guards. Proxies attack Israel and US Middle East places. These continue on even after the regime has collapsed. A new transitional Iranian state is formed by America/Israel to comprise of Reza Pahlavi, Rajavi and MeK, moderate former Islamic Republic officials and others. New name is the Federal Republic of Iran. Law is based on the American system. There are states that represent each Iranian nation: Persia, Kurds, Balochs, etc. Ex revolutionary guards launch an Iraq-style insurrection and Sunni fanatics launch their campaigns too giving ISIS a new life. The world economy is very much affected and Iraq, Lebanon, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Syria are all affected.
    Longterm: American troops remain in Iran for decades battling a longterm insurgency. Iran comprises of a rich, Western influenced area near Tehran and other major rich provinces but also a poor South and East where terrorism breeds. Tehran and other cities experience terrorist attacks on a weekly and often daily basis.

    After that, who knows. It is like all the other Middle East states: held together by the presence of an American army.

    The alternative to this is to let Iran find its own way. It is at present one of the more stable countries in the region and is changing for the better. A more liberal and inclusive Republic could come about soon enough and would have more of a genuine chance of establishing democracy in the region than the forced experiments imposed on Iraq, Afghanistan and others.


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