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Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

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Comments

  • #122
    Tenzor07
    Registered Users Posts: 8,407 ✭✭✭Tenzor07


    Perhaps time to change the thread title to "Coronavirus, future complications on Aviation"

    Even if this current crisis passes by the end of the summer, I think it has caused a lot of people to reconsider how much they actually need to travel, certainly businesses will be looking at cost savings for those on travel for work, and the greater use of teleconferencing etc..

    The public at large after the peak of the crisis, and keeping in mind climate/environmental concerns, will also take a long time to regain lost confidence to get on multiple flights per year.

    Larger airline companies may merge and become one with other large carriers in order to survive, smaller carriers will do the same or go bankrupt... Boeing may have to be broken up and sold off, Airbus may cut down/suspend production across all models....

    I don't think we'll truly know the full impact until after the summer season, but i'm predicting a very different aviation landscape than the one we've been used to...


  • #123
    GM228
    Registered Users Posts: 8,925 ✭✭✭GM228


    Perhaps one plus of the virus is the overnight Brent Crude Oil crash, will it lower aviation fuel bills slightly and help struggling airlines?


  • #124
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 23,776 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    GM228 wrote: »
    Perhaps one plus of the virus is the overnight Brent Crude Oil crash, will it lower aviation fuel bills slightly and help struggling airlines?

    Not to the extent required by them. No point hedging fuel for flights that may never occur.

    They will have to start rationalisation of sectors and setting a minimum load factor to avoid burning too much cash.


  • #125
    billy few mates
    Registered Users Posts: 6,920 ✭✭✭billy few mates


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    Not to the extent required by them. No point hedging fuel for flights that may never occur.

    They will have to start rationalisation of sectors and setting a minimum load factor to avoid burning too much cash.

    Down 30% overnight...
    There's got to be some opportunities there...


  • #126
    basill
    Registered Users Posts: 1,348 ✭✭✭basill


    PinOnTheRight wrote: »
    It seems confirmed now that Lufthansa will temporarily ground it's fleet of 14 A380s. Virgin has brought forward the retirement of their last 3 A340-600s to this week.

    I believe EI are looking volunteers for unpaid leave in roles across the operation including aircrew. :(


    Lets not jump the gun on EI flight crew just now as nothing has been published. I understand there is a meeting this week to discuss this very issue. Willie Walsh has gone on record stating that he wants the airlines within IAG to be ready for the rebound and the EI CEO said the same late last week on an internal newsfeed.


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  • #127
    goingnowhere
    Registered Users Posts: 4,131 ✭✭✭goingnowhere


    Just to note EI has been understaffed through 2018/19, issues with pilot hours etc had led to issues, flights cancelled, flights operated by other carriers (Titan etc) to cover.

    Load factors are not too bad on primary route such as LHR

    The real point where this hinges is the civil service. Currently there is NO travel ban in force within the civil service apart from to locations the DFA has red flagged. If the civil service stop flying it will be a blood bath.


  • #128
    Cookiemunster
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 11,791 Mod ✭✭✭✭Cookiemunster


    The civil service? How many of the 500K civil servants in the country actually travel for work? Very few I'd say. Private business numbers would vastly outnumber civil servants.


  • #129
    goingnowhere
    Registered Users Posts: 4,131 ✭✭✭goingnowhere


    There is a massive gravy train to Brussels and other EU capitals

    Civil service covers all the state bodies as well as the main departments. If they stop flying all the semi states follow

    EI hold (or held) the UK civil service transport contract from London to Belfast.


  • #130
    Hotblack Desiato
    Registered Users Posts: 33,822 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Cookiemunster wrote: »
    The civil service? How many of the 500K civil servants in the country actually travel for work? Very few I'd say. Private business numbers would vastly outnumber civil servants.

    There are about 30k civil servants in the country.

    The entire public sector would be about 350k.

    I'd say easily 95% of them never fly anywhere for work. Probably more than that.

    Life ain't always empty.



  • #131
    Cookiemunster
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 11,791 Mod ✭✭✭✭Cookiemunster


    goingnowhere wrote: »
    There is a massive gravy train to Brussels and other EU capitals

    Civil service covers all the state bodies as well as the main departments. If they stop flying all the semi states follow


    And it still wouldn't come anywhere near private business in numbers.


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  • #132
    howyanow
    Registered Users Posts: 441 ✭✭howyanow


    I am just looking for some advice,I hope its the right forum to ask.
    I am due to fly Aer Lingus to US early April.
    If my flight is to be cancelled,can I request to be pit on another route maybe a day or 2 later?Id still like to go somewhere if possible.
    Also,how would one get by if they were to pick up the virus and have to be quarantined in NYC for example?I know its unlikely to happen but still could.

    I would think rent an air bnb for 2 weeks and get food delivered.

    Hope it passes soon and too many people dont get affrected.


  • #133
    Geuze
    Registered Users Posts: 13,036 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Cookiemunster wrote: »
    The civil service? How many of the 500K civil servants in the country actually travel for work? Very few I'd say. Private business numbers would vastly outnumber civil servants.

    There are approx 35k civil servants, maybe 40k max.


  • #134
    zone 1
    Registered Users Posts: 245 ✭✭zone 1


    stobart air in trouble, or was it just flybe as we no.


  • #135
    Locker10a
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 4,137 Mod ✭✭✭✭Locker10a


    zone 1 wrote: »
    stobart air in trouble, or was it just flybe as we no.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/irish/stobart-air-is-insulated-from-flybe-failure-walsh-39008674.html


  • #136
    Cookiemunster
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 11,791 Mod ✭✭✭✭Cookiemunster


    Geuze wrote: »
    There are approx 35k civil servants, maybe 40k max.


    Well that just prove my point even more then doesn't it? (I was lumping all public and civil servants into the same group)


  • #137
    Masala
    Registered Users Posts: 3,462 ✭✭✭Masala


    As a matter of interest....... where does Ryanair park up its unused aircraft. I know usually parking up would be a Winter thing but if there decided to reduce capacity as a result of Covid-19 and park up a few planes - where would they do so??? I presume they have to pay parking charges wherever it is so there is going to be a cost.


  • #138
    Kev11491
    Registered Users Posts: 168 ✭✭Kev11491


    howyanow wrote: »
    I am just looking for some advice,I hope its the right forum to ask.
    I am due to fly Aer Lingus to US early April.
    If my flight is to be cancelled,can I request to be pit on another route maybe a day or 2 later?Id still like to go somewhere if possible.
    Also,how would one get by if they were to pick up the virus and have to be quarantined in NYC for example?I know its unlikely to happen but still could.

    I would think rent an air bnb for 2 weeks and get food delivered.

    Hope it passes soon and too many people dont get affrected.

    If it's canceled due to the coronavirus being particularly bad in the area of the US you're going to it would be foolish for you to go tbh.

    If its canceled due to lack of demand because of the coronavirus and the destination isn't too bad, then go and take precautions.


  • #139
    Tenger
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 9,717 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tenger


    billy few mates wrote: »
    Down 30% overnight...
    There's got to be some opportunities there...
    Definitely time to lock in a price for future fuel. Ryanair could do very well here.


    Masala wrote: »
    As a matter of interest....... where does Ryanair park up its unused aircraft. I know usually parking up would be a Winter thing but if there decided to reduce capacity as a result of Covid-19 and park up a few planes - where would they do so??? I presume they have to pay parking charges wherever it is so there is going to be a cost.

    "park up" and "grounded" conjure up ideas of 5-6 aircraft parked in the corner of an airport.
    In reality what they would do is fly all their aircraft a little less then usual. So maybe if the have a base with 6 aircaft and instead of each one doing 6 sectors a day, they will operate 4 sectors a day.
    Thus this action is equivalent to "parking" 1/3 of their fleet there.


  • #140
    howyanow
    Registered Users Posts: 441 ✭✭howyanow


    Kev11491 wrote: »
    If it's canceled due to the coronavirus being particularly bad in the area of the US you're going to it would be foolish for you to go tbh.

    If its canceled due to lack of demand because of the coronavirus and the destination isn't too bad, then go and take precautions.

    Thanks for your reply.
    I wouldnt go to the US but was thinking if they would offer a seat to Portugal/Canaries as an alternative id be happy with that.


  • #141
    Tenzor07
    Registered Users Posts: 8,407 ✭✭✭Tenzor07


    Listening to the radio this morning they were saying that if a "Treatment" for CV19 is found by end of next month that this should put some confidence back into the consumer market and airlines would introduce massive seat sales to try and restart the market again...


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  • #142
    sparrowcar
    Registered Users Posts: 2,815 ✭✭✭sparrowcar


    Tenzor07 wrote: »
    Listening to the radio this morning they were saying that if a "Treatment" for CV19 is found by end of next month that this should put some confidence back into the consumer market and airlines would introduce massive seat sales to try and restart the market again...

    That "IF" is huge though, i thought the talk was of months or years for a treatment/vaccine?


  • #143
    DubDani
    Registered Users Posts: 1,154 ✭✭✭DubDani


    BA just announced the cancellation of all Flights to Italy for the next 3 weeks.

    Aer Lingus & Ryanair can't be far behind, especially with the latest Government advice to avoid all travel to Italy.


  • #144
    Tenzor07
    Registered Users Posts: 8,407 ✭✭✭Tenzor07


    sparrowcar wrote: »
    That "IF" is huge though, i thought the talk was of months or years for a treatment/vaccine?

    Yes, a treatment is something that helps the patient manage the disease, in Japan they are testing a drug made to fight against HIV to see if it's effective in managing the effects of the virus on the body for example.

    a Vaccine is different in that it builds a persons immunity to the virus and prevents them getting it in the first place, this may not be full released until early 2021.


  • #145
    Caranica
    Registered Users Posts: 9,999 ✭✭✭Caranica


    Tenzor07 wrote: »
    Yes, a treatment is something that helps the patient manage the disease, in Japan they are testing a drug made to fight against HIV to see if it's effective in managing the effects of the virus on the body for example.

    a Vaccine is different in that it builds a persons immunity to the virus and prevents them getting it in the first place, this may not be full released until early 2021.

    The testing requirements (pre clinical and clinical) make those timescales unlikely for new treatments but afaik if a treatment is already licensed (HIV mentioned above but I've also seen rheumatoid arthritis drugs mentioned) they can accelerate the process as side effects etc are already known.


  • #146
    Tenzor07
    Registered Users Posts: 8,407 ✭✭✭Tenzor07


    Caranica wrote: »
    The testing requirements (pre clinical and clinical) make those timescales unlikely for new treatments but afaik if a treatment is already licensed (HIV mentioned above but I've also seen rheumatoid arthritis drugs mentioned) they can accelerate the process as side effects etc are already known.


    I'm not a Medical Doctor so I don't know any further technical details. I can only tell you what I heard this morning.

    News of a treatment will signal a pivot point, and return public confidence again... at which point major sales will occur to get passengers flying...


  • #147
    Caranica
    Registered Users Posts: 9,999 ✭✭✭Caranica


    Tenzor07 wrote: »
    I'm not a Medical Doctor so I don't know any further technical details. I can only tell you what I heard this morning.

    News of a treatment will signal a pivot point, and return public confidence again... at which point major sales will occur to get passengers flying...

    I used to work in the field, though not a doctor. It can take up to 5 years for a compound to clear the required tests which is why the best chance is to find an already licensed drug that is effective. It still will have to be cleared by the regulators but it's a much less onerous task.

    I agree that anything that boosts consumer confidence is good for the aviation industry. If anyone is to consider picking up some of the Flybe ex Ireland routes they need to be sure of demand and at the moment there's little to none.


  • #148
    Caranica
    Registered Users Posts: 9,999 ✭✭✭Caranica


    Norwegian cutting flights and jobs
    https://twitter.com/paulcolgan/status/1237350855629832196?s=19


  • #149
    Locker10a
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 4,137 Mod ✭✭✭✭Locker10a


    Caranica wrote: »
    Norwegian cutting flights and jobs
    https://twitter.com/paulcolgan/status/1237350855629832196?s=19

    It’s a good opportunity for them really, similar to Flybe they’re not in great shape anyway


  • #150
    Nibs05
    Registered Users Posts: 669 ✭✭✭Nibs05


    Ryanair cancelling all flights to and from Italy

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-ryanair-to-suspend-flights-to-italy-as-country-goes-into-lockdown-1.4198481?mode=amp


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  • #151
    Time
    Registered Users Posts: 993 ✭✭✭Time


    Nibs05 wrote: »
    Ryanair cancelling all flights to and from Italy

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-ryanair-to-suspend-flights-to-italy-as-country-goes-into-lockdown-1.4198481?mode=amp

    Aer lingus can't be far behind, i flew back Saturday and there was about 6 of us on the flight (Self isolating now before anyone gives me sh!t about it)


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