Introducing http://www.boards.ie/vote

thetonynator · 12-02-2011 11:52pm

Reilly616 wrote: »

I don't think it's a good idea to wait for a quota of 65. What would be wrong with showing us how the votes turn out at this point? I'm sure most people following this are eagerly awaiting a view of the allocation of seats in this poll. If you wait for a quota of 65, at this rate, we'll have the election results first.

I agree, some of the constituencies are a long way off that quota yet.

johnmcdnl · 13-02-2011 12:02am

65 is grand for dublin and other city/commuter belt areas where broadband and internet usage is really high

The internet is only slowly filtering into a lot of rural areas and I doubt we're going to ever reach the 65 in most of the constituencies - there's just not enough users that will vote in these areas and we're never going to get a result if we need 65...

Cavan/Monagahan is only at 29 now so it's going to have to over double the amount the voters before we get a result - we've only gotten 170 voters already which isn't a bad turn out and although obviously isn't going to be just as accurate as other areas it'll still give us an indication to where the surpluses are going to go etc etc etc.... but waiting for another 200 voters is going to be a long long wait...

why can't it just be all turned out and give us a result as it stand???

Reilly616 · 13-02-2011 12:17am

I realise that the reason which has been mentioned here before is because you would like it to be as accurate as possible and want to do it properly. But I think the boards members are smart enough to take the results with a pinch of salt and factor in the youth bias aswell.

Reilly616 · 13-02-2011 2:44am

As it stands, only about a quarter of the results are up (11 out of 43 constituencies). That adds up to 46 seats allocated so far:

Lab:15, FG:15, Ind:7, SF:3, Gr:3, Soc:2, PBP:1, FF:0

or

Lab:32.61%, FG:32.61%, Ind:15.22%, SF:6.52%, Gr:6.52%, Soc:4.35%, PBP:2.17%, FF:0%

So, yeah... interesting, but ultimately probably not very accurate.

DeVore · 13-02-2011 2:51am

I never thought I'd write the words "I wish we had more FF supporters on Boards"

DeV.

13-02-2011 2:53am

DeVore wrote: »

I never thought I'd write the words "I wish we had more FF supporters on Boards"

DeV.

Wash your mouth out with soap for saying that...

Reilly616 · 13-02-2011 2:57am

DeVore wrote: »

I never thought I'd write the words "I wish we had more FF supporters on Boards"

DeV.

It's a pity, but at least it's something to look forward to. In 10 or 20 years, when all ages are computer savvy, this sort of thing could provide much more accurate predictions than the regular national polls.

DeVore · 13-02-2011 3:14am

All polls are extrapolations its true so all suffer some degree of bias. We're very interested to see what ours is but who knows if we're way off or not. We've only be compared to other national polls of much smaller numbers ... and peoples "gut feeling". Lets see how accurate we can get and then see what our skewing is.

Fun times ahead

DeV.

CelticRambler · 13-02-2011 12:41pm

Reilly616 wrote: »

If you wait for a quota of 65, at this rate, we'll have the election results first.

With all those independents and voters floating like never before, I reckon there'll be more recounts than ever before for the last one (or even two) seats in at least half the constituencies. It could be St. Patrick's Day before there's a final result. :eek:

maosc0 · 13-02-2011 6:13pm

Number of tallys now in 13,

state of the parties as follows,

FF 0, FG 16, Lab 18, SF 6, G 3, Others 10, Total 53

Estimated from remaining 113 seats as follows

FF 4, FG 51, Lab 33, SF 15, G 0, Others 10, Total 113

Waiting for a quota of 65 in the rural three seaters especially is silly as it is unlikely that 65 will ever be reached. I believe 50 would be sufficient in these instances.

Reilly616 · 13-02-2011 6:56pm

To anyone in the know; any chance you'll be allowing us to see how the other transfers went, considering most people who will vote in this poll already have voted?

keps · 13-02-2011 8:12pm

This poll attracts only compliant computer savvy people.

Many of whom wont bother voting.

I'm not at all sure it represents real on the ground voters

lucernarian · 13-02-2011 8:13pm

I think it would be great if there were more political supporters on boards in general, including FF supporters. Larger numbers of people involved in political discourse can only be a good thing.

As for the estimates for seats, it's almost a certainty that FF and to a lesser extent FG will poll higher than what the boards poll suggests.

Victor · 13-02-2011 9:06pm

maosc0 wrote: »

Waiting for a quota of 65 in the rural three seaters especially is silly as it is unlikely that 65 will ever be reached. I believe 50 would be sufficient in these instances.

While the more rural constituencies / 3-seaters (there is a relationship) will have a lower internet usage, by using quotas (instead of total votes) this should be somewhat balanced.

Reilly616 · 13-02-2011 9:11pm

Victor wrote: »

While the more rural constituencies / 3-seaters (there is a relationship) will have a lower internet usage, by using quotas (instead of total votes) this should be somewhat balanced.

But why bother waiting? It'll become more accurate over time anyway. No use hiding the preferences really...

keps · 13-02-2011 10:20pm

I'm certainly not an apologist for FF - far from it in fact.

But a poll that suggests that they will get only 4 seats in the next election is totally flawed

oscarBravo · 14-02-2011 12:18am

keps wrote: »

This poll attracts only compliant computer savvy people.

"Compliant"?

gandalf · 14-02-2011 1:38am

keps wrote: »

I'm certainly not an apologist for FF - far from it in fact.

But a poll that suggests that they will get only 4 seats in the next election is totally flawed

The poll is suggesting that for the demographic of the boards users that is what will happen. I think everyone has conceded that that demographic doesn't contain a proper representation of the more elderly members of society who would be more conservative and probably vote for FF.

I expect FF to return around 30 TD's at the next election.

What will be interesting is how close Boards is on the final outcome figures. Also for those who are involved in strategic planning in the various parties it is also a very useful barometer on the voting habits for the younger generations especially given core voters of certain parties may not be on this planet come the next election after this upcoming one.

Sir Oxman · 14-02-2011 2:30am

My constituency of Dublin central seems to be quite close for FG/Lab/SF to the boards poll and the one published in the Sindo yesterday for DubC:

Sindo vs (boards)

Lab 30% (32%)
FG 24% (22%)
FF 16% (5%)
SF 13% (14%)
Ind 16% (23%)>(inc 7% WP!)
GP 1% (4%)

Candidate-wise:

Sindo excl don't knows @ 23% vs (boards)

Brady FF 4% (1.2%)
Fitzp FF 12% (3.2%)
Donoh FG 24% (22.3%)
Costel Lab 24% (19.1%)
Clancy Lab 6% (13%)
MLMcD SF 13% (14.2%)
O'Sullv Ind 4% (8.4%)
Perry Ind 4% (5%)
Johnston Ind 3% (1.2%)
Burke Ind 3% (2%)
Kearney GP 1% (1%)
Loftus Ind 1% (-)
Hyland Ind 1% (0.3%)
Steenson WP 0% (6.4%)

Victor · 14-02-2011 11:26am

oscarBravo wrote: »

"Compliant"?

Perhaps over-stated, but not every boards.ie user has completed the poll, it isn't mandatory, only those who complied with the suggestion that they complete it.

oceanclub · 14-02-2011 3:02pm

Sorry if someone has asked this before, but: does anyone know how many total votes need to be made before transferable voting kicks in?

P.

Reilly616 · 14-02-2011 3:08pm

oceanclub wrote: »

Sorry if someone has asked this before, but: does anyone know how many total votes need to be made before transferable voting kicks in?

P.

A quota of 65. So it varies depending on seats per constituency.

3 seats=256
4 seats=320
5 seats=384

And those are valid votes, not total votes. Spoiled (and undecided in this poll) don't count.

14-02-2011 3:10pm

gandalf wrote: »

The poll is suggesting that for the demographic of the boards users that is what will happen. I think everyone has conceded that that demographic doesn't contain a proper representation of the more elderly members of society who would be more conservative and probably vote for FF.

I expect FF to return around 30 TD's at the next election.

What will be interesting is how close Boards is on the final outcome figures. Also for those who are involved in strategic planning in the various parties it is also a very useful barometer on the voting habits for the younger generations especially given core voters of certain parties may not be on this planet come the next election after this upcoming one.

Wicklow is certainly out in my opinion but then theres a busy greystones board on boards.ie and it's no surprise that the two greystones candidates in the county are taking the first 2 seats in wicklow lol...
Dublin SE is also way off with Dylan Haskins getting the first seat and Somerville the 2nd
Dublin south looks dodgy too with olivia mitchell FG not having a seat in favour of Eamon Ryan...She's one of the hardest workers in that constituency I'm told.
Those constituencies were featured on RTE's Drivetime with Sean Donnelly basing his opinion on Red c who have done a number of local polls and the opinions of local journalists and he had different results.

Candidates facebook campaigns linking to boards.ie's poll,candidates popularity or interviews on this site,the ability to vote from abroad and crucially the ability for 13 to 17 year olds to vote are a crucial skew to who is in the top 5 on many of the constituency votes on the boards vote poll.
The other problem is the static nature of the vote.If for example,theres momentum behind FG,will people bother to log back into the vote page and change their vote?
I've not changed my vote in the wicklow constituency for instance but I'm definitely not voting the way I'd initially decided.
Ok I'm still voting Fine gael but my number one will be going to Doyle rather than Harris or I might follow the FG strategy in my area and give the no 1 to Timmins.

The demographic of boards users is having its biggest effect felt on FF obviously but I'm see'ing characters topping polls that won't be within the roar of an ass of that position in the real poll in my opinion,or in the opinion of local red c polls or Sean Donnelly.

chandira · 14-02-2011 6:29pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Dublin SE is also way off with Dylan Haskins getting the first seat

Agreed, I live in this constituency, no-one I've spoken to (about 20 people) has ever heard of Haskins before now.

Conor · 14-02-2011 6:38pm

We've turned down the threshold for PR to a quota size of 50. There should be 28 constituencies live with it now.

Dublin Mid-West, Roscommon-South Leitrim, Cork North-Central and Kerry North-West Limerick are close to being turned on too.

expectationlost · 14-02-2011 9:22pm

who made it?

retalivity · 14-02-2011 11:06pm

from the elected so far, FF have 2 seats, same as SP and PBP, and half of the GP, with another 12 independents.

Would be hilarious if this is how it turns out...

Conor · 15-02-2011 12:14am

expectationlost wrote: »

who made it?

The vast majority of the work on it was done by Paul Conroy, who works primarily for Daft. I did the demographic gathering and some of the backend plumbing, stats & monitoring but the bulk of the work was done by Paul. Credit should also go to The Journal who have been doing the leg work gathering the list of candidates.

nesf · 15-02-2011 12:33am

Tech savvy independents gaming the system?

The proof: http://www.boards.ie/vote/pr-calc.php?c_id=19

Conor · 15-02-2011 1:12am

nesf wrote: »

Tech savvy independents gaming the system?

The proof: http://www.boards.ie/vote/pr-calc.php?c_id=19

I wouldn't quite consider using Facebook/Twitter/e-mail/word of mouth to encourage your supporters to vote "gaming" the system.

I've looked quite closely at the votes for Dylan Haskins and while there are a couple that could - in theory - be suspicious, they're probably innocuous. Even if all the vaguely suspicious votes for him were dodgy, he'd still come out on top with first preferences.

Personally, I see his dominance as one of many indicators of how rubbish the established political parties are at using the web for campaigning. It's not entirely surprising given the age of the average candidate but is disappointing all the same.

Introducing http://www.boards.ie/vote

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