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House Prices 2021

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    #152
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    Idbatterim wrote: »
    All speculation. This isnt like 2008 where we were largely at fault. They have no more of a clue what will happen, than the rest of us. This scaremongering, becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. Anyway, this awful rat race, many people I know are worse off financially but happier overall, than when this started. Nobody will be thrown out of their home here or die of hunger, regardless if there is another recession. I hope there isnt , but probably seems likely.

    Youd swear average joe soap was going.g from wolf of wall street to a bum on the street. When the vast majority of people have never had anything other than a very basic lifestyle, this bull**** scaremongering does my head in ...

    That is a 100 euro bet for a charity of choice I will gladly take


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    #153
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    brisan wrote: »
    That is a 100 euro bet for a charity of choice I will gladly take

    The fact is they won't if people start getting chucked out it would be political suicide for any party in government. You only have to look at the last recession there were very few people turfed out of their family home. It also does not make sense as the state has to rehouse these people anyway


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    #154
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    fliball123 wrote: »
    The fact is they won't if people start getting chucked out it would be political suicide for any party in government. You only have to look at the last recession there were very few people turfed out of their family home. It also does not make sense as the state has to rehouse these people anyway

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058092659
    Do you think this is an isolated case ??
    When the rent payment breaks are over and a landlord is owed 6-8k in rent and the tenant cant/wont pay the arrears what do you think will happen


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    #155
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    brisan wrote: »
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058092659
    Do you think this is an isolated case ??
    When the rent payment breaks are over and a landlord is owed 6-8k in rent and the tenant cant/wont pay the arrears what do you think will happen

    Sorry I am talking about home owners not renters


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    #156
    sanfranbest
    Registered Users Posts: 49 ✭sanfranbest


    It will be very interesting to see what this cottage sells for,
    I think the current owners over paid, it was listed for 450K and they bought it for 520k in Nov 2017,

    Its now listed for 525k

    https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/47-gulistan-cottages-rathmines-dublin-d06-e6c9

    Here is the property price website with all the sales of similar cottages

    https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/Website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/PPR-By-Date&Start=1&Query=%5Baddress%5D=*Gulistan%20Cottages*%20AND%20%5Bdc_county%5D=Dublin&County=Dublin&Year=&StartMonth=&EndMonth=&Address=Gulistan%20Cottages

    Thoughts????


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    #157
    Smouse156
    Registered Users Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Smouse156


    sanfranbest wrote: »
    It will be very interesting to see what this cottage sells for,
    I think the current owners over paid, it was listed for 450K and they bought it for 520k in Nov 2017,

    Its now listed for 525k

    https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/47-gulistan-cottages-rathmines-dublin-d06-e6c9

    Here is the property price website with all the sales of similar cottages

    https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/Website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/PPR-By-Date&Start=1&Query=%5Baddress%5D=*Gulistan%20Cottages*%20AND%20%5Bdc_county%5D=Dublin&County=Dublin&Year=&StartMonth=&EndMonth=&Address=Gulistan%20Cottages

    Thoughts????

    They overpaid significantly and only price it as not to make a loss. Given the rental drops and outlook, the likelihood of achieving that price is low. Especially with the PPR data on similar properties.


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    #158
    Reversal
    Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭Reversal


    sanfranbest wrote: »
    It will be very interesting to see what this cottage sells for,
    I think the current owners over paid, it was listed for 450K and they bought it for 520k in Nov 2017,

    Its now listed for 525k

    https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/47-gulistan-cottages-rathmines-dublin-d06-e6c9

    Here is the property price website with all the sales of similar cottages

    https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/Website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/PPR-By-Date&Start=1&Query=%5Baddress%5D=*Gulistan%20Cottages*%20AND%20%5Bdc_county%5D=Dublin&County=Dublin&Year=&StartMonth=&EndMonth=&Address=Gulistan%20Cottages

    Thoughts????

    It seems the owners are aware themselves they massively overpayed. Didn't even stay in it for 3 years and selling now before a predicted downturn, just looking to get back what they paid for it.

    A classic example of why you shouldn't buy something that doesn't meet your long term needs, no matter how sure you are that prices will keep rising.

    Imagine being stuck in negative equity, paying back a 450k mortgage on 60sqm for the next decade....


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    #159
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Reversal wrote: »
    It seems the owners are aware themselves they massively overpayed. Didn't even stay in it for 3 years and selling now before a predicted downturn, just looking to get back what they paid for it.

    A classic example of why you shouldn't buy something that doesn't meet your long term needs, no matter how sure you are that prices will keep rising.

    Imagine being stuck in negative equity, paying back a 450k mortgage on 60sqm for the next decade....

    How do you know their reasons for selling and that they will be in negative equity for a decade? I do agree it looks like they paid a lot for such a small place


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    #160
    JJJackal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭JJJackal


    That cottage was bought for 285,000 in 2013. I was looking at some of those a few years back. There is a broad spread of cottages (so you would expect a bit of a spread on prices paid imo) from ones falling in (literally barely a kitchen sink) to ones like this that have had some work done.


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    #161
    guyfawkes5
    Registered Users Posts: 291 ✭✭guyfawkes5


    That cottage looks to be the most expensive on that road by a fair margin though, which is never a good sign.


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    #162
    ebayissues
    Registered Users Posts: 446 ✭✭ebayissues


    Reversal wrote: »
    A classic example of why you shouldn't buy something that doesn't meet your long term needs, no matter how sure you are that prices will keep rising.
    .


    Whats your definition on longterm? 10yrs, 20yrs?


    Joe might be single now, but some point in the future he's probably going to get married and have kids. So should Joe buy a 150m2 house that'll suit he's long term needs?


    Joe probably might not even be able to buy a property that does suits he's long term needs, hence maybe an apartment or terraced house.


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    #163
    Reversal
    Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭Reversal


    ebayissues wrote: »
    Whats your definition on longterm? 10yrs, 20yrs?


    Joe might be single now, but some point in the future he's probably going to get married and have kids. So should Joe buy a 150m2 house that'll suit he's long term needs?


    Joe probably might not even be able to buy a property that does suits he's long term needs, hence maybe an apartment or terraced house.

    Well to be honest I think it's foolish for someone in their late 20s or 30s to buy an apartment or small terrace unless they are sure they won't need room to expand in the next 15 - 20 years or so.

    If Joe can't buy a house that suits his needs in the medium to long term then he should rent. People say renting is dead money, but if you plan on buying and trading up within ten years you may want to check the capital/interest breakdown of your mortgage repayments. In a lot of cases, people are not far off renting off the bank for the first 10 years and don't even realize how little equity they will have come trade up time.

    Factor in the purchase/selling, maintenance, insurance and other costs, and then you have the risk of negative equity in times like these, and 'getting on the ladder' does not seem a clever choice over renting.


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    #164
    sanfranbest
    Registered Users Posts: 49 ✭sanfranbest


    Reversal wrote: »
    It seems the owners are aware themselves they massively overpayed. Didn't even stay in it for 3 years and selling now before a predicted downturn, just looking to get back what they paid for it.

    A classic example of why you shouldn't buy something that doesn't meet your long term needs, no matter how sure you are that prices will keep rising.

    Imagine being stuck in negative equity, paying back a 450k mortgage on 60sqm for the next decade....

    Maybe,,,,,,,,,, 60SqM is very small, for 520k you could get a four bedroom house in other areas of Dublin suburbs,,,,,,,,,,I think it was mostly Techies overpaying in Portobello, Ranelagh and Rathmines, a lot of the Techies can now WFH so it will be interesting to see if property prices in these areas fall.


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    #165
    guyfawkes5
    Registered Users Posts: 291 ✭✭guyfawkes5


    Reversal wrote: »
    Well to be honest I think it's foolish for someone in their late 20s or 30s to buy an apartment or small terrace unless they are sure they won't need room to expand in the next 15 - 20 years or so.

    If Joe can't buy a house that suits his needs in the medium to long term then he should rent. People say renting is dead money, but if you plan on buying and trading up within ten years you may want to check the capital/interest breakdown of your mortgage repayments. In a lot of cases, people are not far off renting off the bank for the first 10 years and don't even realize how little equity they will have come trade up time.

    Factor in the purchase/selling, maintenance, insurance and other costs, and then you have the risk of negative equity in times like these, and 'getting on the ladder' does not seem a clever choice over renting.
    You seem to have an overly definite view of the future both in terms of market movement and what your future needs would be.

    You also seem to underestimate rents. It's true that you really should be comparing rent against interest payments (as opposed to the whole mortgage payment, capital and all), but even still rents are so far out ahead of interest that it would take a fairly large market reduction year on year to make it more feasible to rent for that time instead (ignoring the personal costs that would have). In my own case, I calculated that property prices falling 3% every year for next ten years would mean I just break even compared to staying renting.


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    #166
    sanfranbest
    Registered Users Posts: 49 ✭sanfranbest


    The Auctioneera website only allows bids that are 90% of the guide price?

    Property prices are falling and they may fall more than 10%,

    So why cant a buyer bid lower than 90%,,,,,,,?????????

    Here is their rationale...

    The lowest offer that you can submit is 90% of the guide price – we won’t waste time by processing an offer below that amount as the vendor won’t sell for that. If you are interested in buying a property, the best chance of buying it is to offer the guide price. This will automatically trigger a deadline for offers of 15 days. During this period, there is potential that a counter bidder may emerge and if that happens, you will receive an email immediately inviting you to make a counter offer. If you offer below the guide price, we will “sit on that offer” for as long as it takes to get to the guide price. This can take weeks and often months. So if you are seriously interested in a property and are willing to pay the guide price, the best course of action to quickly secure the property is to offer the guide price and then sit tight for 2 weeks and hope that no counter bidder emerges.


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    #167
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    sanfranbest wrote: »
    The Auctioneera website only allows bids that are 90% of the guide price?

    Property prices are falling and they may fall more than 10%,

    So why cant a buyer bid lower than 90%,,,,,,,?????????

    Here is their rationale...

    The lowest offer that you can submit is 90% of the guide price – we won’t waste time by processing an offer below that amount as the vendor won’t sell for that. If you are interested in buying a property, the best chance of buying it is to offer the guide price. This will automatically trigger a deadline for offers of 15 days. During this period, there is potential that a counter bidder may emerge and if that happens, you will receive an email immediately inviting you to make a counter offer. If you offer below the guide price, we will “sit on that offer” for as long as it takes to get to the guide price. This can take weeks and often months. So if you are seriously interested in a property and are willing to pay the guide price, the best course of action to quickly secure the property is to offer the guide price and then sit tight for 2 weeks and hope that no counter bidder emerges.
    What happens if there are no bids they eventually drop the asking price .
    I have seen a house in D5 on their website originally listed at 395 selling for 332


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    #168
    guyfawkes5
    Registered Users Posts: 291 ✭✭guyfawkes5


    sanfranbest wrote: »
    The Auctioneera website only allows bids that are 90% of the guide price?

    Property prices are falling and they may fall more than 10%,

    So why cant a buyer bid lower than 90%,,,,,,,?????????

    Here is their rationale...

    The lowest offer that you can submit is 90% of the guide price – we won’t waste time by processing an offer below that amount as the vendor won’t sell for that. If you are interested in buying a property, the best chance of buying it is to offer the guide price. This will automatically trigger a deadline for offers of 15 days. During this period, there is potential that a counter bidder may emerge and if that happens, you will receive an email immediately inviting you to make a counter offer. If you offer below the guide price, we will “sit on that offer” for as long as it takes to get to the guide price. This can take weeks and often months. So if you are seriously interested in a property and are willing to pay the guide price, the best course of action to quickly secure the property is to offer the guide price and then sit tight for 2 weeks and hope that no counter bidder emerges.
    Auctioneera already has a few 'buyer-friendly' features like public bids, acceptance deadlines for the seller, and so on. I'd forgive them for this one as it wouldn't have been thinkable even a few months ago.

    I'd also say that lowering the minimum bid threshold has a lot of scope to waste time rather than actually be a success, as the guide or asking price is a very direct expression of expectation by the seller and I couldn't see many scenarios where an email saying someone has made a bid of 80% of the asking price being the breakthrough the seller wanted - surely they'd have changed their asking price by then anyway.


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    #169
    sanfranbest
    Registered Users Posts: 49 ✭sanfranbest


    guyfawkes5 wrote: »
    Auctioneera already has a few 'buyer-friendly' features like public bids, acceptance deadlines for the seller, and so on. I'd forgive them for this one as it wouldn't have been thinkable even a few months ago.

    I'd also say that lowering the minimum bid threshold has a lot of scope to waste time rather than actually be a success, as the guide or asking price is a very direct expression of expectation by the seller and I couldn't see many scenarios where an email saying someone has made a bid of 80% of the asking price being the breakthrough the seller wanted - surely they'd have changed their asking price by then anyway.

    I totally agree, it has a lot of buyer friendly features and I wish more EA's would use that model,,,,,,,,,,,


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    #170
    deemulryan
    Registered Users Posts: 5 ✭deemulryan


    Villa05 wrote: »
    Start your research now
    Set up email alerts from daft with what falls close to your affordability range
    Log these on an excel sheet with the following fields.
    Important: log all of the properties
    Address
    Agent
    No of beds
    Condition
    Aspect
    Broadband availability
    Ber score
    Asking price
    Sold price (fill from property price reg)
    Time on the market

    and any other aspect of the property that is important to you. This will arm you with indepth local knowledge of the market you wish to buy in. Many agents can be spoofers. This research will enable you to determine which agents are being honest with you and which are economical with the truth

    Price trends will become apparent quickly. You can see what purchasers are prepared to pay more for. This will also show properties may have less demand because they don't have an attribute that may not be all that important to you.

    Where a market has stalled or very low volume sales you will see when it has resumed quiet quickly, as properties you see as good value others will see the same thing and they will be the first to sell. This may be the time for you to make your move

    This research will take you maybe 15 minutes a week. For you, it could save you a small fortune

    Pretty good advice I wish I had you when I was buying


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    #171
    TSQ
    Registered Users Posts: 283 ✭✭TSQ


    Villa05 wrote: »
    Start your research now
    Set up email alerts from daft with what falls close to your affordability range
    Log these on an excel sheet with the following fields.
    Important: log all of the properties
    Address
    Agent
    No of beds
    Condition
    Aspect
    Broadband availability
    Ber score
    Asking price
    Sold price (fill from property price reg)
    Time on the market

    and any other aspect of the property that is important to you. This will arm you with indepth local knowledge of the market you wish to buy in. Many agents can be spoofers. This research will enable you to determine which agents are being honest with you and which are economical with the truth

    Price trends will become apparent quickly. You can see what purchasers are prepared to pay more for. This will also show properties may have less demand because they don't have an attribute that may not be all that important to you.

    Where a market has stalled or very low volume sales you will see when it has resumed quiet quickly, as properties you see as good value others will see the same thing and they will be the first to sell. This may be the time for you to make your move

    This research will take you maybe 15 minutes a week. For you, it could save you a small fortune

    Only problem is, the PPR is months behind, as it only registers transactions that have finalised and then been registered with the Land Registry. A property sale agreed in January will take 3 months to be logged if it is uncomplicated and might not appear on the PPR till December if either solicitor is slow or if there are even minor issues with title. And as we have seen, economic conditions can change dramatically in a matter of weeks. So if you are planning on moving within the next 6 months, the PPR is useless for tracking trends.


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    #172
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,488 ✭✭✭Villa05


    TSQ wrote:
    Only problem is, the PPR is months behind, as it only registers transactions that have finalised and then been registered with the Land Registry.

    Fair point but to get around this issue, for the houses that meet all your criteria and have gone sale agreed. Ring the agent and ask them if they are still taking offers, try and fish out the agreed price
    Note of caution the agent may give you a quote circa 5% above the agreed price and of course it would be interesting to compare what the agent tells you with the price on the property price register

    Also don't use your research in isolation. Keep an eye on daft reports as they are forward looking and a snapshot of sellers expectations.
    I also found Real Estate alliance quarterly reports helpful


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