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All Weather Winter Warmer

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Sin a bhfuil


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    8.30 Dundalk: Turn On The Tears (9/1 Ladbrokes, Paddy) 1pt Win
    Decent level of form when trained by William Durkan, including here at Dundalk. Durkan just training for the fun of it and never trained a winner in his life, now switched to John Feane who tends to do well with these types of switchers. Curly Girl also switched from Durkan to same connections in recent times and has improved for the change. Trip possibly on the sharp side and fitness unknown off back of a break but would be astonished if Feane is not winning races with her off a mark of 56. Missed the double figure prices but 9s still sufficient value for a bet on my book.


    *correction: Durkan did train a winner at Galway a couple of months back (his only winner)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Beau Warrior scraped home to move things back in the right direction again. Turn On The Tears was smashed late on but could never get into it. Race did not pan out to suit Bellick. Progressive Dawn probably needed this and will continue to keep tabs on her going forward.

    Totals
    Staked 38.50
    Returned 52.40
    P/L 13.90
    ROI 36.10%


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    One at Newcastle, might have more at Wolverhampton later.

    4:20 Carpet Time (Boyles 12/1 paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
    Entitled to have needed run at Wolverhampton last time when weak in market after more than 6 months off and looks better at 5f then 6f anyway. Showed customary pace to lead there before folding in last furlong, is well drawn to attack from front today and not a great deal of pace in opposition so likely to be suited by make up of race. Still relatively unexposed compared to opposition and quite possible has been put away with a winter AW campaign in mind. Is bigger with Paddy but prefer taking the 3.4 to be in first four places.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    5.45 Wolverhampton: Compton Prince (12/1 Boyles, Paddy) 1pt Win
    First sign of promise for a while last time but is difficult to know how likely a reproduction of that effort is given very patchy profile, however is down to a basement mark and should be able to get close to the lead again without too many other front runners in race. Luke Morris a decent enough jockey uplift compared to last time and last win was round this time of year 12 months ago. Horribly inconsistent so not one for big stakes but 12s a few points too big in a bog standard contest.

    6.45 Wolverhampton: Yasir (6/1 Generally) 1.5pt Win
    Has been putting in improved efforts since returning to Sophie Leech and although has gone up a bit in handicap as a result in still about half a stone below the level it was running to when previously trained by Leech. Is a ten year old now so may have regressed a bit in that time but is by far the solidest option in this line up, being bang in form and with all of best career efforts on flat coming round Dunstall Park, had him as clear fav around 4/1 on my book.

    7.15 Wolverhampton: Well Suited (10/3 365, Paddy, BV) 2pts Win
    Most unexposed one in the line up, does have a break from the track to overcome but previous neck second to the smart Mootasadir (gone on to win a G3) in novice company must surely give him a serious chance off an opening mark of 85. Form of maiden win prior to that run at Chelmsford looks none too shabby either with the 3rd place one now rated in treble figures. Crisford well able to ready one after a break as shown with Persian Sun (admittedly was a short fav) winning handily earlier today after 6 months off the track. Given that Well Suited is still an entire and owned by a rich arab cannot see much reason for giving it a pipe opener and would assume they'll try to have him ready to win this. I had him around the 2/1 mark so happy enough to row in with a 2pt bet.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Carpet Time ran similar race to last time, could still be lacking fitness or could just not be very good. Compton Prince travelled OK then looked to empty quickly before deciding he would run on again, law unto himself. Yasir got it done nicely on the line under a nice ride from Probert. Well Suited punted as if expected to get it done but came under pressure turning in and goosed from there on.

    Another 4pts in the right direction on the day, also got Yasir and Well Suited SPs bang on which is reassuring.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,172 ✭✭✭NaiveMelodies


    Carpet Time ran similar race to last time, could still be lacking fitness or could just not be very good. Compton Prince travelled OK then looked to empty quickly before deciding he would run on again, law unto himself. Yasir got it done nicely on the line under a nice ride from Probert. Well Suited punted as if expected to get it done but came under pressure turning in and goosed from there on.

    Another 4pts in the right direction on the day, also got Yasir and Well Suited SPs bang on which is reassuring.

    Great stuff, really enjoying the write ups.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    4.15 Wolverhampton: French Mix (12/1 Paddy paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
    Been running consistently enough at this level under this jockey and nothing wrong with most recent 3rd place at Kempton over further when given a fair bit to do, is 1lb better off with the 2nd from that race today and more importantly is a much bigger price than that one today. Seems quite adaptable regarding trip but had been seen to better effect over this sort of distance when up with the pace, so hopefully can make a sharp exit from the outside draw. Looks a solid option in context of this race and can't see why it should be priced up any bigger than 8/1 with overall profile encouraging for grabbing a place at the very least.

    5.15 Wolverhampton: Poeta Brasileiro (9/1 Paddy paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
    Ran a real eye catcher at Southwell over the minimum trip on penultimate start, flying from the clouds and just failing to run down the leaders at the post. Got the job done relatively easily back up to 6f in novice company at Kempton last time when making all under a very different ride to previous run. Has an opening mark of 67 and while it is hard enough to gauge how lenient that is, a literal reading of a line through Fink Hill from that Southwell race would suggest that he's at least fairly weighted compared to one of today's rivals, Our Man In Havana. Definite scope for further improvement after only 3 career starts and is by far the least exposed in the line up, Hugh Taylor has also kindly tipped up a different one in the race which usually opens up some value elsewhere in the market and hard enough to fathom the 9/1 to me - I thought something around the 5/1 to 6/1 mark was the right price.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    4.15 Wolverhampton: French Mix (12/1 Paddy paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
    Been running consistently enough at this level under this jockey and nothing wrong with most recent 3rd place at Kempton over further when given a fair bit to do, is 1lb better off with the 2nd from that race today and more importantly is a much bigger price than that one today. Seems quite adaptable regarding trip but had been seen to better effect over this sort of distance when up with the pace, so hopefully can make a sharp exit from the outside draw. Looks a solid option in context of this race and can't see why it should be priced up any bigger than 8/1 with overall profile encouraging for grabbing a place at the very least.
    5th (obviously)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    French Mix did well to not finish in first four and looked like there are other days than today in mind for that one. Poeta Brasileiro got it done from the front by skin of the teeth, handicapper won't be able to put him up much for this and could well be up to going in again in a similar race next time as set fast enough fractions from a wide draw.

    +8.8pts on the day and we go again at Southwell tomorrow.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    1.30 Southwell: Jack Taylor (8/1 Paddy, Lads, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 2pts EW
    Got a fair amount of ability but also has a fair amount of quirks, has run well to finish 2nd on both starts at Southwell so looks to handle the surface very well. Not a big Shane Kelly fan but he knows the horse well and has won on him twice before. Fav was very impressive last time but this is a tougher race with a 6lb penalty and unlikely to get own way in front with a lot of other front runners in the line up. The abundance of early pace should also help my selection as needs to be delivered as late as possible, bit of a lottery as to whether he will put his head in front but looked a strong bet to be placed at least on all known form.

    Might have one other bet later in card, not fully decided yet.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Only other one today.

    2.00 Southwell: Entertaining Ben (40/1 Hills, BV) 1pt Win
    Bit of a mad one betting a fibresand debutante to win at 40/1 but feel that it will either handle the surface and go very close or not handle it and finish tailed off. Not masses of promise for the surface on pedigree but forward going running style should be advantageous over the minimum trip there. Getting back down to the sort of mark that it has won off in the past, if it can get out in front then could be difficult to peg back and worth a speculative punt at the price. Cheekpieces (worn for all career wins) back on after running without them last time.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    1.30 Southwell: Jack Taylor (8/1 Paddy, Lads, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 2pts EW
    Got a fair amount of ability but also has a fair amount of quirks, has run well to finish 2nd on both starts at Southwell so looks to handle the surface very well. Not a big Shane Kelly fan but he knows the horse well and has won on him twice before. Fav was very impressive last time but this is a tougher race with a 6lb penalty and unlikely to get own way in front with a lot of other front runners in the line up. The abundance of early pace should also help my selection as needs to be delivered as late as possible, bit of a lottery as to whether he will put his head in front but looked a strong bet to be placed at least on all known form.
    What an absolute rogue that thing is :pac:. Consented to finish 4th at least (second most satisfying outcome after winning).


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Entertaining Ben managed to beat one home at least.

    +0.2pts on the day.

    Dundalk, Lingfield and Newcastle await tomorrow.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Very keen on one at Dundalk this evening, hopefully price will still be there by time can get a bet on.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    6.00 Dundalk: Namazee (13/2 Generally) 3pts Win
    Won with a a fair amount in hand with first time blinkers on over course and distance two starts back accounting for two subsequent winners in 2nd and 3rd. Not as good last time over furlong shorter at Gowran but was drawn wide, missed the break a bit and US pedigree suggests is likely a much better horse on the synthetic stuff than turf anyway so happy enough to overlook it. Looked to be a horse that would be winning more races at Dundalk on previous run and no reason to change that opinion. Three horses ahead of it in the market, while admirable performers are utterly exposed and have nowhere near the scope for improvement of my selection, I think a reproduction of the previous run here would be sufficient to win anyway. Slight worry about 100+ day break and presence of two others making debuts for new stables but they're relatively minor negatives and not enough to put me off having my max on - had it as fav around 7/2 or thereabouts.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    11:40 Lingfield: Father McKenzie (50/1 Paddy paying 4 places 1/5) 0.5pts EW
    Been going off at much shorter prices in similar races on the AW and doubt it handled the fibresand last time in first time blinkers (taken off today). Admittedly has not been running particularly well but has been tumbling down the weights and looks well worth a crack at 7f as has been plugging on over shorter and sire a fair stamina influence (was beaten too far for to have been due to stamina alone only previous run over this trip). Could not be confident that will run much of a race but am quite confident that is not a 50/1 shot in a very poor contest.

    Will have few more at Dundalk and will get round to posting them after lunch.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,013 ✭✭✭maximo31


    6.00 Dundalk: Namazee (13/2 Generally) 3pts Win
    Won with a a fair amount in hand with first time blinkers on over course and distance two starts back accounting for two subsequent winners in 2nd and 3rd. Not as good last time over furlong shorter at Gowran but was drawn wide, missed the break a bit and US pedigree suggests is likely a much better horse on the synthetic stuff than turf anyway so happy enough to overlook it. Looked to be a horse that would be winning more races at Dundalk on previous run and no reason to change that opinion. Three horses ahead of it in the market, while admirable performers are utterly exposed and have nowhere near the scope for improvement of my selection, I think a reproduction of the previous run here would be sufficient to win anyway. Slight worry about 100+ day break and presence of two others making debuts for new stables but they're relatively minor negatives and not enough to put me off having my max on - had it as fav around 7/2 or thereabouts.

    Been told this will go well....


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Posting the rest without write ups as not sure will get round to it, might be able to add it in later on but will be tight for time and cannot be sure.

    5.00: Pari Passu (5/1 Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW

    5.30: Dream Sleep (10/1 Generally) 1pt Win

    8.00: Itsalonglongroad (16/1 Paddy paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,681 ✭✭✭BumperD


    6.00 Dundalk: Namazee (13/2 Generally) 3pts Win
    Won with a a fair amount in hand with first time blinkers on over course and distance two starts back accounting for two subsequent winners in 2nd and 3rd. Not as good last time over furlong shorter at Gowran but was drawn wide, missed the break a bit and US pedigree suggests is likely a much better horse on the synthetic stuff than turf anyway so happy enough to overlook it. Looked to be a horse that would be winning more races at Dundalk on previous run and no reason to change that opinion. Three horses ahead of it in the market, while admirable performers are utterly exposed and have nowhere near the scope for improvement of my selection, I think a reproduction of the previous run here would be sufficient to win anyway. Slight worry about 100+ day break and presence of two others making debuts for new stables but they're relatively minor negatives and not enough to put me off having my max on - had it as fav around 7/2 or thereabouts.

    Slatterys son rides war hero same race seems to be cash coming late interesting....


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  • Users Awaiting Email Confirmation Posts: 568 ✭✭✭Auroras_encore


    Namazee a blatant non trier


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Namazee a blatant non trier
    Don't know how you have arrived at that conclusion, needed the run on the back of the break to my eye, nothing wrong with the ride and travelled into it fine but blew up once push came to shove. Obviously someone had the information it was going to need the run but that's not the same as a non trier, part and parcel of punting on horses. Likely had a niggle of some sort and this will have put him spot on for next time.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Father McKenzie looked a very weak finisher, not sure if stamina is the issue or not but difficult to have much confidence in him ever winning another race on this evidence. Pari Passu ran usual game race from front before folding close home, will be winning once gets a sufficiently easy lead but not sure would want to be taking skinny prices about it. Dream Sleep ran a respectable race but found a few too good, she lacks a bit of tactical pace but should remain competitive at this level. Itsalonglongroad came with a wet sail and looked all over the winner but was just denied, was trading at 1/2 in photo betting on betfair, bit of a sickener but you will have that and place money softens the loss on the day.

    -4.8pts on the day


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Totals
    Staked 62.00
    Returned 85.10
    P/L 23.10
    ROI 37.26%

    Could be a lot worse I suppose


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,083 ✭✭✭Chesty08


    Don't know how you have arrived at that conclusion, needed the run on the back of the break to my eye, nothing wrong with the ride and travelled into it fine but blew up once push came to shove. Obviously someone had the information it was going to need the run but that's not the same as a non trier, part and parcel of punting on horses. Likely had a niggle of some sort and this will have put him spot on for next time.

    Namazee is down to run on Friday. Same venue


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,380 ✭✭✭STB.


    Some very interesting Irish runners on the A/W in the UK over the next few days.

    A Fundalk horse running today in the 1220 at Southwell. Our Manekineko He's been around years (Joseph O Brien won on him). Nash sold him a few months ago to young trainer Stephen Hanlon. Racing off 45, if the trainer has him fit and back in any sort of form, he is surely an e/w bet at 33/1

    Likewise McCann has a few going over to Southwell, most notable of which must be Three Majors, a hard very horse to win with. Has to produced almost on the line. 4/1 with Shane Kelly down to ride in the 12.50.

    Also watch out for Michael O Callaghan's single raider at Wolverhampton on Friday Night in the 845.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Chesty08 wrote: »
    Namazee is down to run on Friday. Same venue
    Hard to imagine they'll have him out again so quick but who knows, could end up turning into a massive cliff horse this one.
    STB. wrote: »
    Some very interesting Irish runners on the A/W in the UK over the next few days.

    A Fundalk horse running today in the 1220 at Southwell. Our Manekineko He's been around years (Joseph O Brien won on him). Nash sold him a few months ago to young trainer Stephen Hanlon. Racing off 45, if the trainer has him fit and back in any sort of form, he is surely an e/w bet at 33/1

    Likewise McCann has a few going over to Southwell, most notable of which must be Three Majors, a hard very horse to win with. Has to produced almost on the line. 4/1 with Shane Kelly down to ride in the 12.50.

    Also watch out for Michael O Callaghan's single raider at Wolverhampton on Friday Night in the 845.
    Yeah loads of Irish ones over today and tomorrow.

    Do not disagree about Our Manekineko, bit of a guess work with all of these Irish ones as to whether will handle the surface or not but does certainly look up to winning if could come back to anything like best form it showed for Nash, just doing the card now but will likely have a small bet on it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,958 ✭✭✭✭Gavin "shels"


    Few Irish looking for their Christmas bonus across the water!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    12.50 Southwell: African Showgirl (7/1 Ladbrokes, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
    Very popular in market last time but could never get involved. Furtado yard now in better form than was the case for that run and remains on a basement mark and has been placed at Southwell off marks in the 60s in the past. Most of the opposition struggle to win races so if can come back to something like old form then should be up to going very close with Malune great value for 5lb claim.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    1.50 Southwell: White Iverson (11/2 Generally) 2pts Win
    Strong dirt pedigree being by Tale Of The Cat and both half siblings have won races on AW with one being placed on the fibresand at Southwell, so a near certainty to be fine on the surface on breeding. Ran best race of four race career in novice company on AW at Lingfield and form of that race makes him look potentially nicely handicapped off a mark of 71. Both subsequent runs were not so good but that was on the turf and fairly confident that return to different surface will see improvement. Forward going running style what you want round here and has first time blinkers on to help sharpen him up. Removal of Tom Queally will not do chances any harm either. 100+ day break to overcome but has been gelded (another source of potential improvement) in that period so will allow him that. Tempting race for an EW bet with the dead 8 but would be worried about one coming out and feel if it does not win will likely be unplaced so will keep it simple with a win only bet.


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