Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Hi all,
Vanilla are planning an update to the site on April 24th (next Wednesday). It is a major PHP8 update which is expected to boost performance across the site. The site will be down from 7pm and it is expected to take about an hour to complete. We appreciate your patience during the update.
Thanks all.

January 2015 Boards forecast contest

2

Comments

  • #32
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,325 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After the first week, 1-7 January ...

    IMT at 6.4 C

    PRC at 156%

    SUN at 129%

    yet to be confirmed, wind gust of 69 kts at Malin Head on 8th.

    so we (you) are getting a bit more of everything so far.


  • #33
    Joe Public
    Registered Users Posts: 1,777 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Schadenfreudia wrote: »
    I see the pessimists on top; the optimists on the bottom!

    And Con not sticking his neck out, as usual, the boring old fart!


  • #34
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,876 ✭✭✭pauldry


    next month maybe one of us should put 45c as the IMT to ruin cons chances


  • #35
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,325 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    That won't work, as he plays off median rather than mean.


  • #36
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    16.2C max today at Oak Park according to ogimet, might be slightly different on the met summary but either way it's safe to say it's well above any of our guesses


  • Advertisement
  • #37
    Rikand
    Registered Users Posts: 20,339 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Harps wrote: »
    16.2C max today at Oak Park according to ogimet, might be slightly different on the met summary but either way it's safe to say it's well above any of our guesses

    Minimum Progression - Heyo!


  • #38
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Yep Docarch and yourself leading the way, I'm joint 3rd with bsal so keeping pace early on :pac:


  • #39
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,876 ✭✭✭pauldry


    i know the record for January is 18.1c but is it not unusual to be getting 16.2c on January 9th.

    Its 15c in Madrid and theyr having a mild January


  • #40
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 708 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    pauldry wrote: »
    i know the record for January is 18.1c but is it not unusual to be getting 16.2c on January 9th.
    The following are from the Met Eireann Monthly Summaries for Max temperatures for each of the last 10 years and the date of Max:

    2014..13.6..5
    2013..14.1..29
    2012..13.1..3
    2011..12.8..15
    2010..12.1..15
    2009..13.1..11
    2008..14.8..16&23
    2007..14.6..19
    2006..13.8..18
    2005..14.5..15

    So it would appear that 16.2 is indeed the highest by some margin in the recent past. For the warmest day to be in the second quarter is not unusual.
    In fact, it would appear that it is more unusual to have the warmest day in the last quarter of the month!


  • #41
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,699 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Cork AP has reported a gust of 79 kts at 1800...just thought I would highlight that. ;)


  • Advertisement
  • #42
    Joe Public
    Registered Users Posts: 1,777 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Cork AP has reported a gust of 79 kts at 1800...just thought I would highlight that. ;)


    80 or more and Harps has it in the bag ( wind bag )


  • #43
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,699 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Cork AP has reported a gust of 79 kts at 1800...just thought I would highlight that. ;)

    I think that may have been a typo on the part of ME...NOAA were reporting a gust of 49 kts for Cork AP at 1800.

    Will see from ME report tomorrow.


  • #44
    Joe Public
    Registered Users Posts: 1,777 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    They do get them :)

    335051.JPG


  • #45
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,699 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    I think that may have been a typo on the part of ME...NOAA were reporting a gust of 49 kts for Cork AP at 1800.

    Will see from ME report tomorrow.

    I see from ME today, highest gust reported at Cork AP yesterday, was 57 kts.

    http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

    That 79 kt reported gust, on the 1800 reports yesterday, would appear to have been a typo/erroneous.


  • #46
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 708 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Malin reported gust of 70 at 8.00

    And reported 65 in the daily summary.
    And Mace Head reported 68.


  • #47
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,325 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After fourteen days ...

    IMT on 6.3 (week 2 was 6.2)

    PRC at 169% (week 2 was 182%)

    SUN at 103% (week 2 was 77%)

    MAX 16.2, MIN -4.0 (Mountdillon, 3rd)


  • #48
    Bsal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,766 ✭✭✭Bsal


    There was a couple of stations reporting -6 on the 19th

    http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp


  • #49
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,325 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Yes, I noted -6.2 at Grange, and is that also known as Sligo Airport? Think it must be, anyway they are new on the reporting list and have never made it into the MS as a monthly extreme site, so if not -6.1 at Casement will make one point difference to the scoring. If these hold up, seems like they could.

    BTW peak wind gust may come in at 68 rather than 70 after revisions, from what I saw. There again, if that holds up.

    The IMT has fallen off since report on 14th to a current (19 day) value of 5.2 and could be level 5.0 by now as that was 5.16 by my calculation. Whether it falls any further or not remains to be seen on current forecasts would say probably about level with finish or it may recover back to 5.2 or so. If so, almost bang on the recent 30-year average after a lot of ups and downs.


  • #50
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,699 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Yes, I noted -6.2 at Grange, and is that also known as Sligo Airport? Think it must be, anyway they are new on the reporting list and have never made it into the MS as a monthly extreme site, so if not -6.1 at Casement will make one point difference to the scoring. If these hold up, seems like they could.

    Dunsany also reported -6.2c for the 19th. http://www.met.ie/climate/daily-data.asp Might Grange and Dunsany be the same?

    I'd accept -6.2c. ;)

    I think they must the same place....from ME with regard to the Dunsany weather station....The AWS is situated within the grounds of Teasgasc Grange, Boycetown, Co Meath.


  • #51
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,325 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Okay, that makes sense, but there is a Grange in Sligo and there is a weather station that we don't see on the met-ie site but appears on meteociel maps (click on temperature, then select UK/Ireland) -- that one is near Grange which is between Ben Bulben and the Atlantic. So I thought it might be there. But the -6.2 and the other info provided above make it appear to be in Meath.

    My head hurts, maybe it was just the FI portion of the GFS 00z run (check it out and make a will).

    ;)


  • Advertisement
  • #52
    Rikand
    Registered Users Posts: 20,339 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Ah, sure leave it at -6.1 so ;)


  • #53
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,325 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After 3 weeks, some estimation required as Mullingar has some missing data ...

    IMT about 5.0

    PRC about 133% after a rather dry week about 60%

    SUN about 120% after a bright week at 160%


  • #54
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,325 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    So, hoping to have the Feb contest entry form set up by later tomorrow or Thursday morning, look for the thread ... the bonus questions in case you want to think about them will be to predict the highest max and lowest min on the 14th at all the sites in "yesterday's weather" on the met-E site. Those include all the main stations and the second order ones too (check out the list to see what places are included if you don't already know). For the min, places like Mountdillon, Markree and Moorepark sometimes take the prize. For the max, it's more likely to be one of the better known sites anyway, I would say Valentia, Shannon, Oak Park or Casement are the most likely places although sometimes you see Finner, Sherkin, even Mullingar, and of course Phoenix Park.

    It's mainly a test of matching up your choice of pattern for the day with the most likely places to be max or min. There will only be three extra points to be had for these location guesses, most of the points will be for the temperature values.

    And if you're thinking ahead to the IMT, the long-term average is 5.2 C.


  • #55
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 708 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Yesterday's max was 10.7 at Valentia.
    And min was 2.6 at CORK AIRPORT.
    This could be a tricky one!


  • #56
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,325 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sorry to say the form is not yet updated, will wait for that before posting a new thread. Meanwhile the peak gust of 71 knots at 0600h (Mace Head) may have eclipsed the previous mark for January.


  • #57
    Schadenfreudia
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,995 ✭✭✭Schadenfreudia


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Sorry to say the form is not yet updated, will wait for that before posting a new thread. Meanwhile the peak gust of 71 knots at 0600h (Mace Head) may have eclipsed the previous mark for January.


    All good news!


  • #58
    Rikand
    Registered Users Posts: 20,339 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Meanwhile the peak gust of 71 knots at 0600h (Mace Head) may have eclipsed the previous mark for January.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M67E9mpwBpM


  • #59
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,325 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Ha ha -- Nelson Muntz.

    Here's the update after four weeks as we close in on final values ...

    IMT sits right on 5.0, may finish at 4.8.

    PRC is down to 113% after a relatively dry week at 55%. Finish near 110% likely.

    SUN is also reduced to 110% after the past seven days managed 78% of normal. That is about where it will end up, probably.


  • #60
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,325 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    IMT came in at 4.8 C (4.84 rounded)

    I will await the MS either tomorrow or Tuesday for the other final values.


  • Advertisement
  • #61
    Joe Public
    Registered Users Posts: 1,777 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    IMT came in at 4.8 C (4.84 rounded)

    An M.T.C. friendly number :)


Advertisement