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Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)
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Weather action have a new page out today they say little ice age type weather this month, if this keeps up id say we have a good chance of getting some action
That thing weather action is talking about is the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). Its the pressure difference between Iceland and the Azores. When its negative it tends to put a north or east influnce on the weather in ireland and uk, when its possitive it tends to put a west or southwest influnce on the weather. http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datgeneral.aspx?type=nao
Check out http://www.facebook.com/raysweather.pageireland .
Hes great at listing all this and is usually bang on with winter weather and if he dosnt know somthing no one will but hes not afraid to admit it !
He recently explained the the last negative phase was a record 14 months long' beating the old record of 9 months by 5 months. The phase lasted from sept 09 to jan 11 when the freezes ended and is easy see what he means. Heres an extract from his page which he posted earlier in the week. He also do have a solar expert come on to his page from time to time with some very valuable information.
***WINTER ***
Note
NAO= North Atlantic Oscillation
AO= Arctic Oscilation
Ye all may remember how I said last Winter it is a \/ery difficult one to forecast unlike the pre\/ious two and I wouldnt budge futher out than two weeks but just ga\/e percentages. Well this year seems to be shaping up a little different and a repeat pattern of Winter 2009/2010 is a \/ery big possibility. Its early days yet but just because last Winter was mild don't let up your guard and you may all remember where I warned about this last Winter " Cold Winters come tend to come in clusters with some of the mildest ones mixed in" and "Don't let your guard up if this is a mild Winter' I feel the big one is still yet to come"
I did think if we were going to get a big freeze last Winter it would be later on in Winter and I was right as Europe was plunged into a deep freeze late in the season. Howe\/er due to a \/ery positi\/e NAO the cold did not penetrate to this side of the Irish Sea.
The NAO has flipped negati\/e now for the last se\/eral weeks and as I said many times on the page if this were Winter it would be \/ery cold with hugh snowfalls.
So let take this into mind. The last negati\/e NAO lasted a record 14 months from around Sept 2009 - Jan 2011. The pre\/ious record was 9 months standing since records began around 100 years ago. So with us into the 2nd month of a \/ery negati\/e NAO will it last another 4 r 5 months to take us into the Winter months ? and if it do there is a 1 in 2 chance the AO will flip to meet it or will the NAO last e\/en longer to meet a negati\/e AO later on in Winter ?
There ye go people put that into perspecti\/e and its not so hard to see where I'm comming from howe\/er this is not a Winter forecast but some early Winter thoughts and for now I'm going for cold - se\/ere cold , maybe e\/en \/ery se\/ere cold !!
2 July at 09:23
By the way is anyone here suscribed to weatherbell ( the site at which joe bastardi works ) ??
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This book looks good for anyone into mini ice ageWeather action have a new page out today they say little ice age type weather this month, if this keeps up id say we have a good chance of getting some action
That thing weather action is talking about is the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). Its the pressure difference between Iceland and the Azores. When its negative it tends to put a north or east influnce on the weather in ireland and uk, when its possitive it tends to put a west or southwest influnce on the weather. http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datgeneral.aspx?type=nao
Check out http://www.facebook.com/raysweather.pageireland .
Hes great at listing all this and is usually bang on with winter weather and if he dosnt know somthing no one will but hes not afraid to admit it !
He recently explained the the last negative phase was a record 14 months long' beating the old record of 9 months by 5 months. The phase lasted from sept 09 to jan 11 when the freezes ended and is easy see what he means. Heres an extract from his page which he posted earlier in the week. He also do have a solar expert come on to his page from time to time with some very valuable information.
***WINTER ***
Note
NAO= North Atlantic Oscillation
AO= Arctic Oscilation
Ye all may remember how I said last Winter it is a \/ery difficult one to forecast unlike the pre\/ious two and I wouldnt budge futher out than two weeks but just ga\/e percentages. Well this year seems to be shaping up a little different and a repeat pattern of Winter 2009/2010 is a \/ery big possibility. Its early days yet but just because last Winter was mild don't let up your guard and you may all remember where I warned about this last Winter " Cold Winters come tend to come in clusters with some of the mildest ones mixed in" and "Don't let your guard up if this is a mild Winter' I feel the big one is still yet to come"
I did think if we were going to get a big freeze last Winter it would be later on in Winter and I was right as Europe was plunged into a deep freeze late in the season. Howe\/er due to a \/ery positi\/e NAO the cold did not penetrate to this side of the Irish Sea.
The NAO has flipped negati\/e now for the last se\/eral weeks and as I said many times on the page if this were Winter it would be \/ery cold with hugh snowfalls.
So let take this into mind. The last negati\/e NAO lasted a record 14 months from around Sept 2009 - Jan 2011. The pre\/ious record was 9 months standing since records began around 100 years ago. So with us into the 2nd month of a \/ery negati\/e NAO will it last another 4 r 5 months to take us into the Winter months ? and if it do there is a 1 in 2 chance the AO will flip to meet it or will the NAO last e\/en longer to meet a negati\/e AO later on in Winter ?
There ye go people put that into perspecti\/e and its not so hard to see where I'm comming from howe\/er this is not a Winter forecast but some early Winter thoughts and for now I'm going for cold - se\/ere cold , maybe e\/en \/ery se\/ere cold !!
2 July at 09:23
By the way is anyone here suscribed to weatherbell ( the site at which joe bastardi works ) ??
http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/53913.The_Little_Ice_Age
On ebay for 10e0 -
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Why do you think this , any reasons or just a gut feelingSponge Bob wrote: »I think this winter will be pretty average...just like last winter. So unless we are in a freak deep freeze by October I will probably vote that way in the inevitable Winter Forecast comp.0 -
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Please let it be a wonderfully white snowfest this winter.
Last winter was the worst I have ever witnessed.
In all my years alive, every winter there is some kind of snow, even it's the gone-by-lunchtime type. But last winter, I didn't see one flake of snow. :eek:
So this year I am holding out for the good stuff. 0 -
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Sponge Bob wrote: »I do hope we get one 'gone by lunchtime' snowfall this coming winter...which would be average for where I live. I hope to see nothing more than that this winter.
I thoroughly enjoyed the record temperature last christmas day.
Oh im determined you won't get your way this year
:pac: 0 -
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My prediction is -25 10 foot of snow for xmas day Sponge Bob wrote: »I do hope we get one 'gone by lunchtime' snowfall this coming winter...which would be average for where I live. I hope to see nothing more than that this winter.
I thoroughly enjoyed the record temperature last christmas day.
Oh im determined you won't get your way this year:pac:0 -
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I can't wait for winter I hate summer, yes I like a sun holiday but I hate this mild sticky warm weather.
Roll on winter and I'd love -10 for a few months
I am the same. I work better in the cold.
Saying that this summer is not too bad for the cold lovers. Not much suffering on my end. I know a few people who consider this payback for a warm winter.
I would suffer hot temperatures during the summer if I knew we would get a cold winter.0 -
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This discussion has been closed.
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