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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭arctictree


    Here's one for this thread! GFS 0z for early new years eve:

    GFSOPUK00_336_53.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,553 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Gonzo wrote: »
    yep an absolute turd of a pub run tonight. A brief cool spell and then back to the Atlantic by New Years. No real northerly and not a sniff of an easterly.

    Unfortunately, this is exactly what the UK Met Office and other long range forecasts have been suggesting. They do get it wrong sometimes, but that's usually when predicting colder. It will be interesting to see what the lastest ec46 will show, but i have feeling it will flip back to a milder outlook for January. Still at least we should get a White Christmas of a kind this year.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 624 ✭✭✭Humberto Salazar


    Unfortunately, this is exactly what the UK Met Office and other long range forecasts have been suggesting. They do get it wrong sometimes, but that's usually when predicting colder. It will be interesting to see what the lastest ec46 will show, but i have feeling it will flip back to a milder outlook for January. Still at least we should get a White Christmas of a kind this year.
    If it's mild and wet by end of Dec, start of January, that's usually it for the winter. There are exceptions of course *1947, cough* and one or two brief cold slots are always possible but in general I've found this to be true regarding deep cold.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭irishrover99


    arctictree wrote: »
    Here's one for this thread! GFS 0z for early new years eve:

    GFSOPUK00_336_53.png

    First it was 22nd of December.
    Then the 25th.
    Now the 31st.

    I’m sure by next week it will be the 7th of January.
    It’s the same every year in Ireland.
    You are better of wishing for dry mild weather as it’s either that or rain and wind.
    Snow will happen once every 20 years.
    And by that I mean a real snow situation worth getting excited about.


  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    First it was 22nd of December.
    Then the 25th.
    Now the 31st.

    I’m sure by next week it will be the 7th of January.
    It’s the same every year in Ireland.
    You are better of wishing for dry mild weather as it’s either that or rain and wind.
    Snow will happen once every 20 years.
    And by that I mean a real snow situation worth getting excited about.
    That's why this is the fantasy thread. There's no point being negative about it. :)

    This thread is like doing the lotto. Half of the fun of it is in dreaming about what could be rather than expecting anything to happen.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,680 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    It does appear we are flipping back to mild. A steady run of downgrades since yesterday, particularly the GFS. The GEM has never really gone for this cold spell. The GFS and ECM still have cool weather in there but nothing particularly cold or exciting.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,372 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Yup. It's still at a distance though where things could swing back again.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    We had massive snow events in 2010 and in 2018. 20 years just a slight exaggeration. In fact winter 2009 / 2010 also has bitter cold spell and snow and I think parts of ulster also has very heavy snow event in 2009 or early 2010.

    We do tend to get mild winters but the last 10 years has had some superb snow in fairness. Let’s not forget it snowed just 2 weeks ago in many places
    First it was 22nd of December.
    Then the 25th.
    Now the 31st.

    I’m sure by next week it will be the 7th of January.
    It’s the same every year in Ireland.
    You are better of wishing for dry mild weather as it’s either that or rain and wind.
    Snow will happen once every 20 years.
    And by that I mean a real snow situation worth getting excited about.


  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    We had massive snow events in 2010 and in 2018. 20 years just a slight exaggeration. In fact winter 2009 / 2010 also has bitter cold spell and snow and I think parts of ulster also has very heavy snow event in 2009 or early 2010.
    Realistically much of Ireland had two massive snow events in 2010. The first started on the east coast New Year's Eve about 10pm, and we had heavy lying snow for (I think) 2 weeks, which spread quite far west.

    On its own that would have been exceptional and we'd still be talking about it, but then we had the second even bigger event in November.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,680 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Let’s not forget it snowed just 2 weeks ago in many places

    Very few low level areas saw any snow, I think it was mostly confined to high ground in parts of the west and the Wicklow Mountains. I know eastern parts of England and Scotland as well as parts of Northern Ireland got low level snow about 2 weeks ago but there was very few reports of snow here in Ireland, and any that I saw was shot from fairly high ground/hilly areas. The vast majority of us are still waiting to see the first flakes of winter. Hopefully we will all have seen something by the end of the 1st week of January but right now the charts aren't providing much confidence with downgrade after downgrade since yesterday morning.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭arctictree


    I'd say once every 10 years for a major snow event countrywide.

    In my location (Roundwood), that drops to once in every 3 or 4 years. But it seems to come in spurts. We had a lot of snow events in 2009 and 2010. And two in 2018.

    FI generally shows what is possible. And at this time of year a number of very cold charts are showing amidst lots of mild ones...


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    I agree to a point but it was the same pretty much here as UK in that only certain places got the snow. I have colleagues who live in Donegal, Mayo and Leitrim who all seemed to get snow and none of them are on 'higher ground'. I think it was very much a north western snow event in the case of Ireland, rather like certain parts of Scotland saw it but the likes of Edinburgh and Glasgow got next to nothing.

    Let's just hope that we get a nice spell of snow between Christmas and New year. I still wouldnt trust any charts before Sunday.
    Gonzo wrote: »
    Very few low level areas saw any snow, I think it was mostly confined to high ground in parts of the west and the Wicklow Mountains. I know eastern parts of England and Scotland as well as parts of Northern Ireland got low level snow about 2 weeks ago but there was very few reports of snow here in Ireland, and any that I saw was shot from fairly high ground/hilly areas. The vast majority of us are still waiting to see the first flakes of winter. Hopefully we will all have seen something by the end of the 1st week of January but right now the charts aren't providing much confidence with downgrade after downgrade since yesterday morning.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,767 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    A bit far away to be certain but ECM currently showing quite wintry weather next Tuesday into Weds ( after a general cooling down from the weekend ), wet sleety mix, snow possible on more elevated ground , frontal rain bands giving possible sleet and snow on the leading edge as it moves into cold air. Model predictions are changeable in the track of LP's. Will be interesting, not the powdery type if we get snow, more like the heavy wet type and on higher ground but more seasonal anyway. Some very cold day time temperatures showing up for next week and some sharp frosts. ECM showing a very cold Christmas Day but at the moment little precipitation.

    Cold week next week from the GFS and wintry also at times would reckon, more so Northern counties, plenty of interest in there, not the cold charts of a few days ago but could just get the right combination of cold air position and a slider low and hey presto !! :)

    That's an interesting set up just after Christmas, later Stephens day into Sunday if we got weather like that, would prove quite wintry. Might not look like that tomorrow but the trend in general is cold and wintry for a start.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,553 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The GFS pub run up to its old tricks. If it has not Modelled that low off the
    US correctly, we could well see a much different GFS in subsequent runs. Although to be fair the UKMO is showing something similar. Based on this run the chances of snow for some of us have increased over the holiday period, but it could well have changed by the morning


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Who started the rollercoaster??

    Some very interesting model updates this morning with some very interesting model watching ahead but it could go several ways.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Some festive cheer from the GFS this morning I see!

    The evolution from 156-192h looks very strange though, with the low heights just drained out of Greenland and Labrador, and the Atlantic high retrogressing northwest.

    Would certainly be an interesting time ahead if it verified.

    Big Freeze, Brexit, COVID Lockdown all rolled into one, Kermit-de-Frog will be loving life!


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    240h from GFS is one for the notebook

    gfs-0-240.png?0


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭arctictree


    arctictree wrote: »
    Here's one for this thread! GFS 0z for early new years eve:

    GFSOPUK00_336_53.png

    I'm just requoting my post from yesterday. One day on and the GFS 0z is still showing a snow day....


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    That'll do pig that'll do :D

    gfsnh-0-234.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 624 ✭✭✭Humberto Salazar


    240h from GFS is one for the notebook

    gfs-0-240.png?0

    If it's there at 120, sleds out. I'll wait till then, how often we get disappointed.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,680 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    This cold spell first showed up about 2 weeks ago in the GFS for a few days, then got shelved and introduced again earlier in the week only to be downgraded to almost nothing yesterday and now we are back again. Likely to be many more changes before then. We also need the ECM and GEM to be singing from the same hymn sheet as time get's closer.


  • Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    First post in many months: why? because i have to say, I really like what I am seeing on the weather models at the moment. Probabilities increasing on a cold spell on offer for final days of the year now! This morning's GFS and this morning's control run further iterations on a trend evident now in the output.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,553 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The GFS is excellent. Although it could easily go wrong, because it relies on the low out of Canada playing ball, most time they do not and the high will end up being suppressed

    I think given the complex set up, we could end up with a half house situation between the various models. So it could turn out to be up cool with mixed wintry precipitation rather than precipitation being mainly snow. I really wish the latest GFS run was now at 72 hours.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,680 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    The GFS is excellent. Although it could easily go wrong, because it relies on the low out of Canada playing ball, most time they do not and the high will end up being suppressed

    I think given the complex set up, we could end up with a half house situation between the various models. So it could turn out to be up cool with mixed wintry precipitation rather than precipitation being mainly snow. I really wish the latest GFS run was now at 72 hours.

    yep it can go wrong very easily for us, doesn't take much adjustment. It could easily just push south-westwards across Europe from Scandinavia through the low countries and France and down into Spain and Portugal, missing us completely and left in no mans land. This is still 10 days away so can change several times or disappear completely. As ever cold spells at the extended range of the models have to be taken with a pinch of salt until 2 or 3 days beforehand. No doubt if this was predicting a mild run it would verify much more smoothly.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭Storm 10




  • Registered Users Posts: 23,372 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    gfs-0-204.png?12

    Everybody just try to remain calm! :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,131 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    gfs-0-204.png?12

    Everybody just try to remain calm! :D

    I sense you might be opening a thread soon....


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,978 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    I sense you might be opening a thread soon....

    that will be the death knell of the potential cold spell!!

    the chart Kermit posted shows a 1000 hPa difference between Norway and Greenland, which is interesting to look at. hopefully the GFS is onto something as that's three runs in a row showing a Greenland high... the GFS is apparently good at picking out Greenland highs but I wouldn't know.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Can I please have one ticket for the Rollercoaster, I am getting on :D
    gfsnh-1-234.png


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  • Registered Users Posts: 67 ✭✭Fitzo123


    To my untrained eye, that looks 2010 esque...


This discussion has been closed.
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