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April 2015 Boards forecast contest

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Comments

  • #32
    Joe Public
    Registered Users Posts: 1,777 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Is that Con I saw this morning just popping his head out above Scotland?

    344987.JPG


  • #33
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,319 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    -1.8 C at Markree on morning of 13th.

    Will edit in a report on week two and current values later today.


  • #34
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,319 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Here are those week two updates ...

    IMT has stayed relatively steady, 9.0 on the week and also now for the month so far.

    PRC has jumped up to 88% based on the 109% average for week two, but I notice that it stayed quite dry in the southeast where stations were closer to 25%.

    SUN also increased to 128% thanks to a second week 139% average.

    As far as I am aware, MAX so far 18.9 and MIN -1.8 C.


  • #35
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,319 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Now for the week three updates ...

    IMT is fairly steady at 8.9 C (probably 9.0 after today)

    PRC has fallen to 61% as the third week was almost totally dry (7% of normal with several stations at zero).

    SUN is probably going to threaten some monthly records at this rate, the week managed 181% of normal (!) and that brings the month to about 146% of normal.

    MAX so far 19.4, MIN -1.8

    but that MAX may have been edged out today.


  • #36
    Joe Public
    Registered Users Posts: 1,777 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    20.2C for Valentia yesterday


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  • #37
    Joe Public
    Registered Users Posts: 1,777 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Newport Furnace has appeared with a high of 21.3C for yesterday.


  • #38
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,870 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Yup mayo is a bit furnace like in a southeasterly

    Great day for golf in mulranny though.


  • #39
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,319 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thinking about a bonus question for May, any events on weekends (not 2-3 May, too early) that we could use as a background?

    Will start up the May thread on Monday evening possibly.

    The met.ie data not updating but I am estimating IMT is 8.9 C at this precise moment and may fall a few tenths, maybe 8.6 will be the finish. I was reading elsewhere that Casement hit -3.6 C last night and would expect some similar or even lower readings but scores are pretty much protected now by minimum progression if that value is overtaken. Joe Public (I notice) has that -3.6 for his forecast. I am optimistic about beating Con Sensus this month anyway.


  • #40
    mrskinner
    Registered Users Posts: 387 ✭✭mrskinner


    The Irish Open Golf Championship starts Thursday May 28th at the Royal County Down Golf Club.

    Listowel Writers Week starts Friday May 29th.


  • #41
    jd
    Registered Users Posts: 5,680 ✭✭✭jd


    Referenda are on May 22nd.


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  • #42
    mrskinner
    Registered Users Posts: 387 ✭✭mrskinner


    Eurovision Final May 23rd.


  • #43
    jd
    Registered Users Posts: 5,680 ✭✭✭jd


    mrskinner wrote: »
    Eurovision Final May 23rd.
    As is the count too!


  • #44
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,319 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The official numbers may be slow to reach us, for two reasons -- there have been some recent days with missing data, and with the Bank Holiday weekend starting on the 2nd, it could be Tuesday 5th before the MS is published. OTOH, we have a fairly good idea of the numbers from our tracking, so will issue these provisional scores and then update them as we get some official numbers. The bonus scoring is already final.



    FORECASTER _____________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_Bonus ___ TOTALS
    ________________________________________________________________

    Estimated values ___________ 8.6_21.3_-4.0_085_130__10.5


    Rameire _________________15 _ 13*_ 10*_ 13 _ 05 __ 05 ______ 61
    mickger844posts__________ 18 _ 13*_ 04*_ 15 _ 08 __ 06 ______ 64
    Rikand __________________21 _ 12*_ 12*_ 13 _ 08 __ 10 ______ 76
    omicron _________________21 _ 12*_ 12*_ 13 _ 05 __ 07 ______ 70
    Jpmarn _________________ 22 _ 16*_ 14*_ 12 _ 07 __ 10 ______ 81
    Joe Public _______________ 22 _ 04*_ 18*_ 14 _ 10 __ 08 ______ 76
    MTCranium ______________ 23 _ 18*_ 15*_ 15 _ 10 __ 09 ______ 90
    Sunflower3 ______________ 23 _ 08*_ 02*_ 07 _ 02 __ 05 ______ 47
    200motels_______________ 23 _ 08*_ 08*_ 15 _ 07 __ 07 ______ 68
    mrskinner _______________ 24 _ 00 _ 08*_ 12 _ 06 __ 07 ______ 57
    waterways_______________ 25 _ 09*_ 14*_ 00 _ 02 __ 10 ______ 60
    Dacogawa________________25 _ 13*_ 10*_ 15 _ 08 __ 09 ______ 80

    Con Sensus ______________25 _ 08*_ 10*_ 12 _ 06 __ 07 ______ 68

    john mac________________ 25 _ 10*_ 11*_ 10 _ 06 __ 01 ______ 63
    Kindred Spirit ____________ 25 _ 06*_ 06*_ 13 _ 05 __ 07 ______ 62
    JD _____________________ 24 _ 14*_ 02*_ 12 _ 06 __ 05 ______ 63
    Lumi ___ (-5) ____________ 24 _ 14*_ 13*_ 10 _ 04 __ 07 __ 72-5=67
    Bsal ____________________ 24 _ 02*_ 06*_ 12 _ 03 __ 04 ______ 51
    lostinashford _____________ 22 _ 09*_ 08*_ 12 _ 06 __ 06 ______ 63
    DOCARCH _______________ 21 _ 07*_ 10*_ 13 _ 05 __ 07 ______ 63
    Harps___________________ 21 _ 06* _ 12*_ 13 _ 07 __ 10 ______ 69
    Tae laidir ________________ 21 _ 03*_ 16*_ 14 _ 06 __ 07 ______ 67
    Dasa29 __ (-10) __________ 20 _ 03*_ 06*_ 12 _ 06 __ 07 __ 54-10=44
    Schadenfreudia ___________ 19 _ 06*_ 14*_ 10 _ 04 __ 06 ______ 59
    pauldry__________________ 18 _ 01*_ 10*_ 09 _ 04 __ 08 ______ 50


    For now, I will leave these scores unsorted because it's easier to amend them. The uncertainty is mostly with the IMT, PRC and these could change by 2-3. The MAX and MIN were both adjusted by minimum progression. Actually the lower scores are more generous changes than the higher scores but this is often how this feature works out. In general, looks like a high scoring month and Con Sensus did not gain on many players.


  • #45
    Schadenfreudia
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,995 ✭✭✭Schadenfreudia


    Thank God for Pauldry :)


  • #46
    Joe Public
    Registered Users Posts: 1,777 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Well done MTC on your unofficial score.


  • #47
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,870 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Schadenfreudia wrote: »
    Thank God for Pauldry :)

    Thank God for Dasa29


  • #48
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,319 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thank Con Sensus for all of you.


  • #49
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,319 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Final scoring for April 2015

    The monthly summary has confirmed most of the estimated values, IMT 8.4 C, MAX was 21.3 at Newport on 23rd, MIN was -4.0 at Mullingar on 27th. PRC was 82% of normal rainfall and SUN came in even higher than my estimate (of 130%) at 147% of normal. That required a slight change to scoring but as it turns out only two scores dropped by one point. The bonus answer was 10.5 hours at Valentia where location became a non-factor in scoring as nobody guessed that.

    FORECASTER _____________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_Bonus ___ TOTALS
    ________________________________________________________________

    Confirmed values _________ 8.4_21.3_-4.0_082_147__10.5

    MTCranium ______________ 21 _ 18*_ 15*_ 14 _ 09*__ 09 ______ 86
    Jpmarn _________________ 20 _ 16*_ 14*_ 11 _ 07*__ 10 ______ 78
    Dacogawa________________23 _ 13*_ 10*_ 14 _ 08*__ 09 ______ 77
    Rikand __________________19 _ 12*_ 12*_ 12 _ 08*__ 10 ______ 73
    Joe Public _______________ 20 _ 04*_ 18*_ 13 _ 09*__ 08 ______ 72
    Harps___________________ 23 _ 06*_ 12*_ 12 _ 07*__ 10 ______ 70
    Tae laidir ________________23 _ 03*_ 16*_ 13 _ 06*__ 07 ______ 68
    omicron _________________19 _ 12*_ 12*_ 12 _ 05*__ 07 ______ 67
    Lumi ___ (-5) ____________ 24 _ 14*_ 13*_ 09 _ 04*__ 07 __ 71-5=66
    200motels_______________ 21 _ 08*_ 08*_ 14 _ 07*__ 07 ______ 65

    Con Sensus ______________23 _ 08*_ 10*_ 11 _ 06*__ 07 ______ 65

    lostinashford _____________ 24 _ 09*_ 08*_ 11 _ 06*__ 06 ______ 64
    DOCARCH _______________ 23 _ 07*_ 10*_ 12 _ 05*__ 07 ______ 64
    JD _____________________ 24 _ 14*_ 02*_ 11 _ 06*__ 05 ______ 62
    mickger844posts__________ 16 _ 13*_ 04*_ 14 _ 08*__ 06 ______ 61
    john mac________________ 23 _ 10*_ 11*_ 09 _ 06*__ 01 ______ 60
    Schadenfreudia ___________ 21 _ 06*_ 14*_ 09 _ 04*__ 06 ______ 60
    Kindred Spirit ____________ 23 _ 06*_ 06*_ 12 _ 05*__ 07 ______ 59
    Rameire _________________13 _ 13*_ 10*_ 12 _ 05*__ 05 ______ 58
    waterways_______________ 23 _ 09*_ 14*_ 00 _ 02*__ 10 ______ 58
    mrskinner _______________ 22 _ 00 _ 08*_ 11 _ 06*__ 07 ______ 54
    pauldry__________________20 _ 01*_ 10*_ 08 _ 04*__ 08 ______ 51
    Bsal ____________________ 24 _ 02*_ 06*_ 11 _ 03*__ 04 ______ 50
    Dasa29 __ (-10) __________ 22 _ 03*_ 06*_ 11 _ 06*__ 07 __ 55-10=45
    Sunflower3 ______________ 21 _ 08*_ 02*_ 06 _ 02*__ 05 ______ 44
    ____________________________________________________

    * minimum progression scoring for MAX and MIN as well as for SUN where all scores except the top two remain the same as in the provisional due to the various ties, the rule being that for categories out of ten points the scores must be at least 9,9,8,8,7,7 etc. The results of doing that dropped the two high scores that were previously 10, but left most of the next dozen or so unchanged, then there would have been some odd major jumps between groups that were very close in their predictions so I just left the old scores for all as an equitable compromise.

    Annual table to be posted soon.


  • #50
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,319 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Annual scoring update Jan to Apr 2015

    April scores are now confirmed and so here's the updated annual scoring summary.


    FORECASTER ____________ Jan _ Feb_ Mar _ Apr___ 2015 Total __ best 3/4

    Jpmarn __________________64 _ 57 _ 71 _ 78 ___ 270 ________ 213

    Con Sensus ______________ 70 _ 71 _ 63 _ 65 ___ 269 ________ 206

    Lumi ____________________68 _ 72 _ 59 _ 66 ___ 265 ________ 206
    Rikand __________________ 84 _ 59 _ 48 _ 73 ___ 264 ________ 216
    jd ______________________ 72 _ 61 _ 68 _ 62 ___ 263 ________ 202
    DOCARCH ________________75 _ 79 _ 40 _ 64 ___ 258 ________ 218
    mickger844posts __________ 50 _ 90 _ 53 _ 61 ___ 254 ________ 204
    Bsal ____________________ 77 _ 55 _ 68 _ 50 ___ 250 ________ 200
    dacogawa ________________48 _ 62 _ 63 _ 77 ___ 250 ________ 202
    Joe Public ________________69 _ 42 _ 64 _ 72 ___ 247 ________ 205
    John mac ________________ 73 _ 55 _ 58 _ 60 ___ 246 ________ 191
    M.T. Cranium _____________68 _ 17 _ 71 _ 86 ___ 242 ________ 225
    Schadenfreudia ___________ 61 _ 67 _ 53 _ 60 ___ 241 ________ 188
    sunflower3 _______________69 _ 61 _ 59 _ 44 ___ 233 ________ 189
    kindredspirit ______________63 _ 57 _ 52 _ 59 ___ 231 ________ 179
    Harps ___________________ 69 _ 57 _ 34 _ 70 ___ 230 ________ 196
    dasa29 __________________47 _ 69 _ 67 _ 45 ___ 228 ________ 181
    omicron _________________ 41 _ 77 _ 40 _ 67 ___ 225 ________ 185
    Pauldry __________________51 _ 48 _ 70 _ 51 ___ 220 ________ 172
    MrSkinner ________________--- _ 71 _ 85 _ 54 ___ 210 ________ 210
    Tae laidir ________________ 33 _ 60 _ 46 _ 68 ___ 207 ________ 174
    rameire __________________55 _ 40 _ 46 _ 58 ___ 199 ________ 159
    waterways _______________ --- _ 70 _ 58 _ 58 ___ 186 ________ 186
    lostinashford _____________ 56 _ --- _ 53 _ 64 ___ 173 ________ 173
    200motels _______________ 30 _ --- _ 59 _ 65 ___ 154 ________ 154
    delw ____________________48 _ --- _ 61 _ --- ___ 109
    blue5000 ________________ 45 _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 45
    BLIZZARD7 ______________ --- _ 31 _ --- _ --- ___ 31
    __________________________________________________________

    In the final column you can compare your scores as they might be trending towards the eventual outcome where it's best ten out of twelve (Boards Award), this is particularly true for those who have missed one month so far. In that category, five of us have managed to edge ahead of Con Sensus, in the total score (MTC Award) only Jpmarn has a slight lead over Con but there are quite a few very close behind.


  • #51
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,319 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    For the benefit of MrSkinner who joined in February, take note that you are really in fifth place in the main contest rather than way down the table as it now appears. Later in the year I change the table structure so that the "best x out of x+1" part evolves into best x out of x+2 and you get a better picture of how the scores compare towards the eventual best 10 out of 12. Also, strictly speaking the best two out of four could be compared at this point. You are just a point behind two other entrants in that measure. Missing a month means very little except that you only have one score to drop. I think I've already dropped one for certain so I'm in the same situation. Some of the other higher scores probably have two blanks to use up later.


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