Fifth Annual Boards winter forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 23-11-2014 6:01pm #1

WELCOME to the Fifth Annual Winter Forecast Contest. The rules will be similar to past years, and the prize will be 20 euros to the winner.

The deadline will give you a chance to peer into the first week of December with some idea what's going on as the season starts. In weather circles, winter is December, January and February, and that will be the basis of our contest. Read the rules carefully and feel free to enter any time before the deadline ...

Entries accepted until 0300h Tuesday 2 December as "on time" and from that point on, will be penalized 10 points per day which means that entries after 12 December will not be scored and in practical terms, entries after 5 Dec will likely not compete.

The top scores in past years were close to 75/100 to give you some idea of what the standard is. Here are the rules, look at the end of this post for a template that you can use to enter. I will make an effort to review all entries and contact anyone who has an incomplete entry. It's up to you to be familiar with the rules in each question.

(1) For each month Dec Jan Feb, predict the "IMT" which is the Irish Mean Temperature, a statistic developed on this forum by Deep Easterly, and the average of five stations in central inland locations (Shannon, Oak Park, Mullingar, Casement, Claremorris). For newbies, this is the average of daily highs and lows. Over recent 30-year periods, the means have been around 5.6 in Dec, 5.3 in Jan and 5.2 in Feb. Very mild months would run around 8-9 C and very cold ones a little below freezing (Dec 2010 was -0.4). These forecasts generate 5 points each, and the seasonal average, which you don't need to calculate (I do that from your entries) counts for 15 points.

(2) For each month Dec Jan Feb, predict the monthly precipitation as a percentage of normal values. This is calculated as in our monthly forecast contest, from records taken at eleven stations that report in the Met Eireann Monthly Summary. Those are the five mentioned above plus Valentia, Cork, Johnstown Castle, Belmullet, Ballyhaise and Malin Head. Note that Dublin is not included. Values under 50% are considered exceptionally dry and above 200% exceptionally wet (for your guidance). The scoring for these three forecasts and the seasonal average which again you don't need to enter, will also be 5,5,5 and 15 points.

(3) For all the reporting stations of Met Eireann, as reported in their Monthly Summary, predict the seasonal highest and lowest temperatures. This will apply only to dates from 1 Dec to 28 Feb for the max, but can apply to dates both before and after the winter for the min (up to 15 April when the contest results are declared). The max in the past three winters has been close to 15 and the min during the first contest was about -16 but then more like -6 in the second contest, -8 winter of 2012-13, and -5 last winter. I would guess the long-term average for the winter minimum is around -8 to perhaps -10. These two predictions are worth ten points each.

(4) Predict the seasonal snowfall (in cms) at Casement. This will run from the first measurable snowfall (which has not happened yet, but your forecast should include anything already reported if it does snow in November, check this thread and elsewhere for updates on that) to 15 April (anything after that won't count as the contest is over on 15 April). These daily snowfall values (if they occur) are measured at hourly intervals and summed, which means the snow depth at any point might not be quite as much as the snowfall amount. However, amounts vary a lot from season to season. In the first contest winter 2010-11, there was about 50 or 60 cms but then we used a stat from Boards member "Danno" in Laois who had about 30 cms. In 2011-12, I believe there was almost zero accumulation and our lowest contest guess had the highest score. This was similar to the past two winters when most of the field guessed higher than what actually fell at Casement (something like 7 cm in 2012-13 and 3 cm in 2013-14). This part is worth ten points.

(5) Finally, predict the highest wind gust in knots at any reporting station in Ireland as per the Met Eireann Monthly Summary, but note that in this case, the period is only the three winter months -- strong winds in November or March or early April won't count, the gust has to be between 1 Dec and 28 Feb. Knots are almost double km/hr and about 1.15 times mph. Values between 70 and 100 knots are most likely to verify from climatology, the extreme range would be about 50 to 120 for this statistic. This part is also worth ten points.

Note: All scores are based on rank order, not absolute differences from prediction to actual values. This equalizes the various sections of the contest and distributes the scores evenly. Once we establish the number of entries, I will update this scoring system, but basically, 10% of the entries get top scores in each category and then on down, with any odd numbers left over getting the zero scores. Where it's 10 points, the gradations are 10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1,0 and where 5 points, half of those values, where 15 we will give equal numbers of scores, and let you know later how many will share each score (based on number of entries).

Okay then, here's the template, once you understand what to predict, just change all the letters here to number values and block copy, submit along with your comments etc. We're open for entries although you'd be smart to wait until near the end of November (but don't forget, those penalties starting on 2 December are going to bite).

TEMPLATE FOR ENTRIES

DEC-IMT
JAN-IMT
FEB-IMT

DEC-PRC
JAN-PRC
FEB-PRC

MAX

MIN

SNOW

GUST

(all temps can have one decimal place, prc % to nearest whole number, snow can also have one decimal place, gust to nearest whole number)

Good luck and check back, also, if you are new to our contests, check out the December monthly contest when it's announced in the last few days of this month. We do those every month.

(Use this template if at all possible)

0.0 _ 0.0 _ 0.0 ___ 100 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 10.0 _ -10.0 __ 00.0 ___ 00

This will be my entry unless I decide to edit it before the deadline:

5.5 _ 4.7 _ 4.3 ___ 110 _ 090 _ 070 ____ 15.0 _ -7.7 _ 10.5 (cm) __ 90 (kts)

Note -- I will take the consensus values of the entries, and report on that in the winter 2014-15 thread as the "Boards consensus forecast" so be a part of that.

derekon · 23-11-2014 9:06pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

WELCOME to the Fifth Annual Winter Forecast Contest. The rules will be similar to past years, and the prize will be 20 euros to the winner.

The deadline will give you a chance to peer into the first week of December with some idea what's going on as the season starts. In weather circles, winter is December, January and February, and that will be the basis of our contest. Read the rules carefully and feel free to enter any time before the deadline ...

Entries accepted until 0300h Tuesday 2 December as "on time" and from that point on, will be penalized 10 points per day which means that entries after 12 December will not be scored and in practical terms, entries after 5 Dec will likely not compete.

The top scores in past years were close to 75/100 to give you some idea of what the standard is. Here are the rules, look at the end of this post for a template that you can use to enter. I will make an effort to review all entries and contact anyone who has an incomplete entry. It's up to you to be familiar with the rules in each question.

(1) For each month Dec Jan Feb, predict the "IMT" which is the Irish Mean Temperature, a statistic developed on this forum by Deep Easterly, and the average of five stations in central inland locations (Shannon, Oak Park, Mullingar, Casement, Claremorris). For newbies, this is the average of daily highs and lows. Over recent 30-year periods, the means have been around 5.6 in Dec, 5.3 in Jan and 5.2 in Feb. Very mild months would run around 8-9 C and very cold ones a little below freezing (Dec 2010 was -0.4). These forecasts generate 5 points each, and the seasonal average, which you don't need to calculate (I do that from your entries) counts for 15 points.

(2) For each month Dec Jan Feb, predict the monthly precipitation as a percentage of normal values. This is calculated as in our monthly forecast contest, from records taken at eleven stations that report in the Met Eireann Monthly Summary. Those are the five mentioned above plus Valentia, Cork, Johnstown Castle, Belmullet, Ballyhaise and Malin Head. Note that Dublin is not included. Values under 50% are considered exceptionally dry and above 200% exceptionally wet (for your guidance). The scoring for these three forecasts and the seasonal average which again you don't need to enter, will also be 5,5,5 and 15 points.

(3) For all the reporting stations of Met Eireann, as reported in their Monthly Summary, predict the seasonal highest and lowest temperatures. This will apply only to dates from 1 Dec to 28 Feb for the max, but can apply to dates both before and after the winter for the min (up to 15 April when the contest results are declared). The max in the past three winters has been close to 15 and the min during the first contest was about -16 but then more like -6 in the second contest, -8 winter of 2012-13, and -5 last winter. I would guess the long-term average for the winter minimum is around -8 to perhaps -10. These two predictions are worth ten points each.

(4) Predict the seasonal snowfall (in cms) at Casement. This will run from the first measurable snowfall (which has not happened yet, but your forecast should include anything already reported if it does snow in November, check this thread and elsewhere for updates on that) to 15 April (anything after that won't count as the contest is over on 15 April). These daily snowfall values (if they occur) are measured at hourly intervals and summed, which means the snow depth at any point might not be quite as much as the snowfall amount. However, amounts vary a lot from season to season. In the first contest winter 2010-11, there was about 50 or 60 cms but then we used a stat from Boards member "Danno" in Laois who had about 30 cms. In 2011-12, I believe there was almost zero accumulation and our lowest contest guess had the highest score. This was similar to the past two winters when most of the field guessed higher than what actually fell at Casement (something like 7 cm in 2012-13 and 3 cm in 2013-14). This part is worth ten points.

(5) Finally, predict the highest wind gust in knots at any reporting station in Ireland as per the Met Eireann Monthly Summary, but note that in this case, the period is only the three winter months -- strong winds in November or March or early April won't count, the gust has to be between 1 Dec and 28 Feb. Knots are almost double km/hr and about 1.15 times mph. Values between 70 and 100 knots are most likely to verify from climatology, the extreme range would be about 50 to 120 for this statistic. This part is also worth ten points.

Note: All scores are based on rank order, not absolute differences from prediction to actual values. This equalizes the various sections of the contest and distributes the scores evenly. Once we establish the number of entries, I will update this scoring system, but basically, 10% of the entries get top scores in each category and then on down, with any odd numbers left over getting the zero scores. Where it's 10 points, the gradations are 10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1,0 and where 5 points, half of those values, where 15 we will give equal numbers of scores, and let you know later how many will share each score (based on number of entries).

Okay then, here's the template, once you understand what to predict, just change all the letters here to number values and block copy, submit along with your comments etc. We're open for entries although you'd be smart to wait until near the end of November (but don't forget, those penalties starting on 2 December are going to bite).

TEMPLATE FOR ENTRIES

DEC-IMT
JAN-IMT
FEB-IMT

DEC-PRC
JAN-PRC
FEB-PRC

MAX

MIN

SNOW

GUST

(all temps can have one decimal place, prc % to nearest whole number, snow can also have one decimal place, gust to nearest whole number)

Good luck and check back, also, if you are new to our contests, check out the December monthly contest when it's announced in the last few days of this month. We do those every month.

(Use this template if at all possible)

0.0 _ 0.0 _ 0.0 ___ 100 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 10.0 _ -10.0 __ 00.0 ___ 00

This will be my entry unless I decide to edit it before the deadline:

5.5 _ 4.7 _ 4.3 ___ 110 _ 090 _ 070 ____ 15.0 _ -7.7 _ 10.5 (cm) __ 90 (kts)

Note -- I will take the consensus values of the entries, and report on that in the winter 2014-15 thread as the "Boards consensus forecast" so be a part of that.

Hi MT, am I reading your prediction above correctly? Are you predicting 10.5cm of snow for Casement, West Dublin for the month of December, 2014? :rolleyes:

D

force eleven · 24-11-2014 12:53pm

DEC-5.8
JAN-2.8
FEB-4.5

DEC- 120
JAN- 80
FEB- 110

MAX - 14.5

MIN - -14.3

SNOW - 28cm

GUST - 58kts

Bsal · 24-11-2014 5:08pm

5.7 _ 5.5 _ 5.3 ___ 115 _ 105 _ 140 ___ 14.5 _ -5.0 __ 2.0 ___ 75

W1ll1s · 24-11-2014 5:14pm

5.9 _ 3.7 _ 4.3 ___ 110 _ 095 _ 090 ____ 10.0 _ -7 _ 8 (cm) __ 110 (kts)

cdev · 25-11-2014 10:12am

5.2 _ 2.9 _ 4.4 ___ 105 _ 105 _ 100 ____ 14.1 _ -9.0 _ 15.2 __ 99

ch750536 · 25-11-2014 12:03pm

5.1 _ 4.3 _ 4.4 ___ 90 _ 70 _ 75 ___ 11.2 _ -8.3 __ 12.2 ___ 58

Strasser · 25-11-2014 2:02pm

6.8 _ 4.3 _ 6.4 ___ 115 _ 90 _ 110 ___ 14.0 _ -8.1 __ 6.5 ___ 80

M.T. Cranium · 29-11-2014 11:26pm

That question earlier about predicting snow for Casement -- the prediction is for the winter season not for December alone. However, I am now revising my seasonal forecast numbers as guidance is clearly indicating colder potential. This is the new call and so in fact I guess I probably am predicting 10 cm for Casement in December after all.

2.8 _ 2.2 _ 1.5 ___ 70 _ 90 _ 60
Max 14.0 and min -10.5 __
___ 120% sun ___ 28.5 cms ___ 90 knot gust

DOCARCH · 30-11-2014 9:59am

Hi MT...I see you threw in a % sun answer above?

5.5 _ 4.8 _ 5.3 ___ 101 _ 95 _ 115 ___ 16.2 _ -8.8 __ 18.5 (cm) ___ 78 (kts)

omicron · 30-11-2014 12:07pm

4.5 _ 4.0 _ 6.0 ___ 70 _ 70 _ 130 ___ 14.5 _ -7.0 __ 10.0 ___ 82

And if you're looking for sun I'd say 120.

dasa29 · 30-11-2014 6:10pm

5.6 _ 5.2 _ 5.0 ___ 110 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 15.0 _ -11.0 __ 30.0 ___ 75

John mac · 30-11-2014 11:46pm

5.5 _ 4.7 _ 4.9___ 120 _ 102 _ 98 ___ 14.4 _ -7.2 __ 8.0 ___ 69

Harps · 01-12-2014 1:06am

4.6 _ 4.9 _ 5.3 ___ 80 _ 110 _ 90 ____ 14.2 _ -6.9 _ 3 (cm) __ 81 (kts)

braddun · 01-12-2014 1:10am

http://www.accuweather.com/en/ie/dublin/207931/december-weather/207931

Billcarson · 01-12-2014 1:27am

4.6 _ 3.9 _ 4.4 ___ 100 _ 90 _ 85 ___ 14.3 _ -9.4 __ 15 (cm) ___ 90 (kts)

pauldry · 01-12-2014 3:21pm

5.8 _ 4.9 _ 4.9 ___ 89 _ 120 _ 120 ___ 14.7 _ -7.5 __ 28 (cm) ___ 78 (kts)

rameire · 01-12-2014 8:04pm

6.4 _ 4.2 _ 4.6 ___ 120 _ 090 _ 131 ___ 115.9 _ -6.2 __ 04.0 ___ 96

corrected

6.4 _ 4.2 _ 4.6 ___ 120 _ 090 _ 131 ___ 15.9 _ -6.2 __ 04.0 ___ 96

Rikand · 01-12-2014 10:50pm

5.5 _ 4.8 _ 4.5 ___ 090 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 14.5 _ -7.5 __ 13.0 ___ 76

sunflower3 · 02-12-2014 12:18am

5.4_4.7_4.8_80_93_120_15.4_-6.8_8.0_83l

okla · 02-12-2014 12:27am

5.9, 4.8, 4.1 120, 90, 76 13.9 -8.6, 8cms 89kts

Jpmarn · 02-12-2014 3:02pm

5.9_ 4.1_ 6.2___ 110 _ 080 _ 130____ 14.3_ -8.2_ 12.5(cm) __ 78 (Kts)

M.T. Cranium · 02-12-2014 8:46pm

Okay, so I will be Mr Nice Guy and extend the no-penalty deadline to 0300h tonight, then switch to Mr Mean N. Nasty and cut off further entries (because of that looming windstorm on the models). Anyone who wants to edit or revise is free to do so before 0300h.

Will see if I can get a moderator to edit the thread title accordingly.

Table of entries to be posted tomorrow.

M.T. Cranium · 03-12-2014 10:44pm

Okay then, entries are now closed -- and I had a brain cramp when I added my sunshine percentage, that was in the summer contest as a requirement. Anyway most didn't notice that had happened so we'll ignore the sunshine figures and move on to a table of entries. They are listed in order of seasonal average IMT.

Table of entries -- Fifth Annual Winter Forecast Contest

FORECASTER _______ IMT DJF/season _ PRC DJF/season _ MAX _ MIN _ SNOW _ Max gust

Strasser ___________6.8_4.3_6.4 5.8__115_ 90 _110 105__14.0__-8.1__ 6.5___80

Bsal ______________ 5.7_5.5_5.3 5.5__115_105_140 120__14.5__-5.0__ 2.0___75

Jpmarn ___________ 5.9_4.1_6.2 5.4 __110_ 80_130 107__14.3__-8.2__12.5___78

dasa29 ___________ 5.6_5.2_5.0 5.3 __110_120_ 90 107__15.0 _-11.0__30.0___75

Pauldry ___________ 5.8_4.9_4.9 5.2 __ 89_120_120 110__14.7__-7.5__28.0___78

DOCARCH _________ 5.5_4.8_5.3 5.2 __101_ 95_115 104__16.2__-8.8__18.5___78

Rameire ___________6.4_4.2_4.6 5.1 __120_ 90_131 114__15.9__-6.2__ 4.0___96

Johnmac __________ 5.5_4.7_4.9 5.0 __120_102_ 98 107__14.4__-7.2__ 8.0___69

sunflower3 _________5.4_4.7_4.8 5.0 __ 80_ 93_120_ 98 __15.4__-6.8__ 8.0___83

Okla ______________5.9_4.8_4.1 4.9 __120_ 90_ 76_ 95 __13.9__-8.6__ 8.0___89

Con Sensus ________ 5.6_4.3_4.8 4.7__105_ 93_110 103__14.5__-7.5__12.2___80

Rikand ____________5.5_4.8_4.5 4.9 __ 90_100_110 100__14.5__-7.5__13.0___76

harps _____________ 4.6_4.9_5.3 4.9 __ 80_110_ 90_ 93 __14.2__-6.9__ 3.0___81

omicron ___________ 4.5_4.0_6.0 4.8 __ 70_ 70_130_ 90 __14.5__-7.0__10.0___82

Wi||is _____________ 5.9_3.7_4.3 4.6 __110_ 95_ 90_ 98__10.0__-7.0__ 8.0__110

ch750536 __________ 5.1_4.3_4.4 4.6 __ 90_ 70_ 75_ 78 __11.2__-8.3__12.2___58

force eleven ________ 5.8_2.8_4.5 4.4__120_ 80_110 103__14.5 _-14.3__28.0___58

Bill Carson _________ 4.6_3.9_4.4 4.3__100_ 90_ 85_ 92 __14.3__-9.4__15.0___90

cdev ______________ 5.2_2.9_4.4 4.2__105_105_100 103__14.1__-9.0__15.2___99

M.T. Cranium _______ 2.8_2.2_1.5 2.2__ 70_ 90_ 60_ 73 __14.0_-10.5__28.5___90
_________________________________________________________

Con Sensus is the median value of the 19 forecasts entered, which is the 10th ranked value. I computed the seasonal averages directly from the monthly medians which is why the seasonal IMT for consensus is a bit lower than if you took it from that set of values. (basically a rounding error) __ and our consensus seems to be for a slightly colder than average winter with January especially favoured to be cold, precip if anything very close to average and probably a bit more snow than in previous two or three winters but not as much as December 2010. The thinking on windstorm values is well scattered and you can see that milder forecasts favour lower extreme wind gusts (although that is opposite to last winter's logic). However, if my own forecast is a guide to what other coldies are thinking, the strongest winds might occur in a mild spell despite a lot of cold weather.

Anyway, good luck and scoring will occur whenever values are confirmed, and that will be based on rank order of your forecasts rather than absolute error.

M.T. Cranium · 05-01-2015 9:18pm

December IMT was 5.6 C and the precip was 86% of normal. So far the MAX is 14.2 and the MIN is -6.9 C. No snow at Casement and doubt that we have seen the highest wind gust yet (under 70 knots). I will post some partial scores after January, you can see for yourself how you're doing so far. Scores in this contest are by rank order, the three monthly IMTs are worth 5 points each and so are the monthly precips. The seasonals are worth 15 points. The max, min, snowfall and maximum wind gust are all worth 10 points. With 19 entrants, the scores will basically go down from the maximum in equal increments of 0.5 (out of 10), for those out of five we'll go with two high scores, and two at each other scoring interval (excluding ties) except one score of 0.5.

ch750536 · 08-02-2015 8:29am

I know you're busy MT but any update?

M.T. Cranium · 10-02-2015 9:14pm

Hi, not busy, just away for a few days. January the IMT was 4.8 C and the precip was 125% of normal. So far this winter, the maximum wind gust has been 71 knots.

The max has been 16.2 and the min -7.9 ... will hold off posting any scores until we have February data but would say at this point, DOCARCH could be in the lead but there are several others not that far off the pace. I don't think there has been more than 1 cm of accumulated lying snow at Casement either.

M.T. Cranium · 03-03-2015 8:39pm

February had an IMT of 4.4 C and the precip was 80% of normal.

There was a wind gust of 76 knots at Mace Head which will be the contest standard.

I am estimating 4 cm of snow at Casement so far, will check this out in more detail in a few days but it would appear that contest scoring is likely to proceed as per most years, top scores for low snowfall etc.

The maximum for the winter is settled (has to occur in Dec, Jan or Feb) at 16.2 ... suspect that the minimum of -7.9 C in February will also qualify but we have to the 15th of April to watch for anything lower.

Will post some provisional scoring numbers later today or early tomorrow.

M.T. Cranium · 03-03-2015 10:48pm

Provisional scoring for Winter 2014-15 contest

See previous post for values being scored, snowfall and MIN are subject to revision, everything else is "locked in" now.

FORECASTER _______ IMT DJF/season _ PRC DJF/season _ MAX _ MIN _ SNOW _ Max gust

___Actuals _________ 5.6_4.8_4.4_4.9 __ 86_125_80__97__16.2__-7.9__4.0 __ 76

___Max score _______5.0_5.0_5.0_15 __ 5.0_5.0_5.0__15___10.0__10.0__10.0__10.0
_______________________________________________________________________________

Rikand ____________ 4.5_5.0_4.5_15 __ 5.0_3.5_2.5__12___7.5__ 9.0__ 5.0___10.0___ 83.5

sunflower3 _________3.5_4.5_3.0_13 __4.5_3.0_1.5__15 ___9.0__ 4.5__ 8.0___ 6.0 ___ 75.5

harps _____________ 1.5_4.5_2.0_15 __4.5_4.5_4.5__11 ___4.0__ 5.0__10.0___ 6.5 ___ 73

Okla ______________3.0_5.0_3.5_15 __1.0_2.5_5.0__13 ___2.0__ 7.5 __ 8.0___ 6.0 ___ 71.5

Con Sensus ________ 5.0_3.5_3.0_11__2.5_3.0_2.5___9___7.5__ 9.0__ 6.0___7.0 ___ 69

Johnmac __________ 4.5_4.5_2.5_13 __1.0_4.0_3.5___5___5.5__ 7.5__ 8.0___ 6.0 ___ 65

DOCARCH _________ 4.5_5.0_2.0__9 __3.5_3.0_1.5___7__10.0__ 6.5__ 3.5___8.5 ___ 64

Pauldry ___________ 3.5_4.5_2.5__9 __ 5.0_5.0_1.5___3___8.0__ 9.0__ 2.5___8.5 ___ 62

Wi||is _____________3.0_2.0_4.5__9 __2.5_3.5_4.5__15___1.0__ 6.5__ 8.0__1.0 ___ 60.5

omicron ___________ 1.0_2.5_1.5_13 __ 3.0_1.0_1.0___7___7.5__ 6.5__ 6.0___6.0 ___ 56

dasa29 ___________ 5.0_4.0_2.5__6 __2.5_5.0_4.5___5___8.5 __ 1.5__ 1.0___ 9.5 ___ 55

Rameire ___________1.5_3.0_4.0_11 __1.0_2.5_0.5___2___9.5__ 3.0__10.0___ 2.5 ___ 50.5

Jpmarn ___________ 3.0_2.5_1.0__4 __2.5_2.0_1.0___5___5.0__ 9.5__ 5.5___ 8.5 ___ 49.5

Bill Carson _________ 1.5_2.0_5.0__2__4.0_2.5_5.0__10 ___5.0__ 3.5__ 4.5___ 4.5 ___ 49.5

ch750536 __________ 2.0_3.5_5.0__6 __5.0_1.0_5.0___1 ___1.5__ 9.0__ 5.5 ___ 3.5 ___ 48

Strasser ___________1.0_3.5_1.0__1__1.5_2.5_2.5___6___3.0__10.0__ 8.5___ 7.0 ___ 47.5

Bsal ______________ 4.5_3.0_2.0__2__1.5_4.5_0.5___1___7.5__ 2.0__ 9.0___9.5 ___ 47

force eleven ________ 3.5_1.0_4.5__4__1.0_2.0_2.5___9___7.5__ 1.0__ 2.5____ 3.5 ___ 42

cdev ______________ 2.0_1.0_5.0__1__2.5_4.0_3.0___9___3.5__ 4.5__ 4.0___ 2.0 ___ 41.5

M.T. Cranium _______ 0.5_0.5_0.5__0__3.0_2.5_3.0___0 ___3.0__ 2.5__ 1.5___4.5 ___ 21.5
______________________________________________________

I would say that Rikand has a lock on this now, since his snowfall score can only improve over the next two (Sunflower3, Harps) and there is little difference to be gained if the minimum were to fall lower, which does not seem likely.

Will revisit the thread on 15th April to confirm the scores.

Rikand · 04-03-2015 10:32am

I really should be getting some sort of fancy undertitle for all this dominance, lol [ahem, mods ]

Boards.ie Award Winner 2014
MTC Award winner 2014
Winter forecast contest winner 2014/2015

probably be the last one I ever win!

I've had a great run and will likely not win anything else ever again. Thanks as always for running MT!

Harps · 05-03-2015 6:53pm

Another case of close but no cigar for me, congrats once again Rikand!

Fifth Annual Boards winter forecast contest

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