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25-06-2020, 07:34   #61
Meteorite58
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Looking through the models this morning and bearing in mind the trends of the last few runs I am thinking storms breaking out in the SE late afternoon / early evening ( maybe a bit of S also), migrating N to cover the E, Midlands, mid W, N and NW. The big population areas of the E has a fairly high chance of thunderstorms by late evening. Thinking that along or off the SE and E coasts could see plenty of storms. The Northern counties could see storms well into the early hours and could peak here.
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25-06-2020, 07:34   #62
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The Kermit de Frog convincing thread
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25-06-2020, 07:36   #63
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Originally Posted by Kermit.de.frog View Post
Sligo may be a bit far west but, again, just keep up to date with the observations. It's not a forecast anymore. Storms could pop up randomly in a lot of places away from west Connaught and Munster coasts later today.


EDIT: Sligo is not too far west. What am I thinking!
Thanks Kermit
I'm in Donegal by the way
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25-06-2020, 07:36   #64
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Starting already on the north coast, thunderstorm between Coleraine and Islay I observed a few c-gs and loud rumbles ,the sky is full of altocumulus I've never seen anything like it in 30 years.
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25-06-2020, 07:37   #65
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Originally Posted by Meteorite58 View Post
Looking through the models this morning and bearing in mind the trends of the last few runs I am thinking storms breaking out in the SE late afternoon / early evening ( maybe a bit of S also), migrating N to cover the E, Midlands, mid W, N and NW. The big population areas of the E has a fairly high chance of thunderstorms by late evening. Thinking that along or off the SE and E coasts could see plenty of storms. The Northern counties could see storms well into the early hours and could peak here.
No storms for Mayo so,
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25-06-2020, 07:42   #66
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No storms for Mayo so,
Hard to know but I think highest chance is the area above. Don't expect too much in the SW.
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25-06-2020, 07:42   #67
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The Kermit de Frog convincing thread
They only need convincing until it happens
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25-06-2020, 07:43   #68
 
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Expecting nothing in East Cork anyway
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25-06-2020, 07:44   #69
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They only need convincing until it happens
I know I know. Apologies for my grouchy behaviour. Keep the faith!
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25-06-2020, 07:44   #70
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Looking at the situation right now, MUCAPE for 7 am was forecast to be a few hundred J/kg from Antrim (where there were a few strikes a while ago) down to Leinster (clear skies). So this level of CAPE is not producing anything.

For later on it does intensify somewhat over land but the main area of interest is over Wales and the Irish Sea this evening. Soundings show most unstable layer around 800 hPa. So some sporadic storms over land during the day but I would expect the best activity to be up along the Irish Sea tonight.



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25-06-2020, 07:47   #71
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But will there be purple level thunderstorms?
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25-06-2020, 07:47   #72
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19c in Arklow ,NE breeze and it's not 750am yet
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25-06-2020, 07:48   #73
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Originally Posted by owen3371 View Post
Starting already on the north coast, thunderstorm between Coleraine and Islay I observed a few c-gs and loud rumbles ,the sky is full of altocumulus I've never seen anything like it in 30 years.
OWEN!!!
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25-06-2020, 07:53   #74
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OWEN!!!
If it is,he's not 30,more like late teens...
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25-06-2020, 07:54   #75
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UPDATED

NI/ROI

few elevated showers/thunderstorms may be possible over Ulster during Thursday morning, clearing northwards. Elsewhere, a northward-moving shortwave may result in some elevated convection developing in the vicinity of the Isles of Scilly / Celtic Sea on Thursday morning, which may bring both an increase in mid-level cloud and perhaps a few elevated showers/thunderstorms into SE Ireland by early afternoon, continuing to lift north with time. Even if this elevated convection is not deep enough to produce lightning, the additional cloud cover spilling north may have some negative impact on surface heating. Assuming the cloud is not too extensive and/or fairly broken, diurnal heating could yield 500-1,000 J/kg CAPE by the afternoon and evening hours. Profiles look capped to surface-based convection initially, but mid-level cooling and lift associated with the aforementioned shortwave could lead to scattered thunderstorms erupting during the evening hours (if not earlier), especially in the vicinity of the Central Plain.

Similar to western Scotland (albeit profiles slightly more V-B-V), for a few hours the environment would be favourable for cell organisation and possibly supercells capable of producing large hail 3-4cm in diameter, frequent lightning and strong outflow gusts. A SVR has been issued primarily for the risk of locally damaging hail and flash flooding. This will be dependent on sufficient surface heating, otherwise surface-based convection may struggle to initiate. Either way, stronger forcing aloft will arrive towards mid-evening, and so thunderstorms are likely to become more numerous and increasingly elevated, especially across central/northern Ireland and eventually drifting northwards offshore over the Atlantic and towards the Hebrides. With several thunderstorms potentially training over similar areas, this will bring the risk of local flooding. Most storms will generally drift to the N or NNW, but if mid-level rotation becomes strong enough some may deviate more to the NE.
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