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25-06-2020, 06:54   #46
Jin luk
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Ive waited 26years for major storms like these are suppose to be to hit here at home in ireland really thought i missed out last week when tipp got the big 1s please let us have something special later.

Will take a lot to beat the storm i seen on the south east coast of spain last year was like strobe lighting that night.
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25-06-2020, 06:56   #47
M.T. Cranium
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I'm as confused as anybody.

Lightning for Dublin around 02-04h possibly? Scattered storms in the southeast overnight.

Other cells that might be rather dormant moving into the midlands late afternoon erupting over west Ulster evening and overnight. I think those two clusters will be most significant, can't rule out activity further west.

Plenty of lightning at present time in northern Spain and some entrainment towards s.w. England past Brittany this morning. With the heat building over Britain potential looks reasonable, GFS rainfall accumulations support the overnight development idea.
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25-06-2020, 06:57   #48
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The notable thing about elevated storms this evening - if you do manage to be lucky enough to be in the right place - will be the lack of thunder with a lot of the lightning, or just short distant rumbles. There will be some prime locations that will see action but there will also be those who will see nothing too, or only very briefly. We're not going to see wall-to-wall coverage covering the whole CAPE area.

Just to manage expectations. Hopefully everyone will get a share but I doubt it.
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25-06-2020, 06:59   #49
Rock Lesnar
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BBC only going with with showers up along the east coast starting around 8pm, nothing much before that
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25-06-2020, 07:07   #50
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Originally Posted by bazlers View Post
Lets see what MT has to say this morning. Then we will know if its good night Irene

There is cross model agreement on thunderstorms moving south to north from later this afternoon. Exact locations (most likely in the east and north) remain to be determined but it's a 'now cast' from now on.

There are already storms developing in northern counties and just to northwest of France which is a good sign.

Sit back and enjoy.

Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 25-06-2020 at 07:32.
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25-06-2020, 07:08   #51
Gaoth Laidir
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ESTOFEX discussion.

Quote:
A level 1 was issued across northern Spain and northern Portugal across the Bay of Biscay into the south-western British Isles mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.
...

SYNOPSIS

A blocking ridge covers most of Europe, with a mid-level jet curving around it. A frontal zone extends from western Europe into Scandinavia and western Russia with some frontal waves embedded. Enhanced low-level moisture can be found close to these frontal waves especially across western Europe, central Scandinavia, and western/southern Russia. This moisture paerty overlaps with plumes of mid-level lapse rates across western Europe and central Scandinavia. A cut-off low is centred to the north of the Alps. A moist air mass across the Balkans and Poland is advected around the cut-off toards northern Germany.

DISCUSSION

Western Europe

Along the frontal zone with twi main frontal waves moving north, steep mid-level lapse rates are present. Elevated CAPE will be in the 1000 J/kg range and surface-based CAPE can develop during the day over the land. With moderate shear, multicells are forecast, capable of producing locally large hail and severe wind gusts. Over France, shear is weak, but increasing lift late in the period can result in storms spreading into the region with excessive rain the main threat, but some large hail is also not ruled out. Isolated storms are forecast across central Spain with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threat given moderate shear and inverted-v profiles.
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25-06-2020, 07:10   #52
Kermit.de.frog
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
I'm as confused as anybody.

Lightning for Dublin around 02-04h possibly? Scattered storms in the southeast overnight.

Other cells that might be rather dormant moving into the midlands late afternoon erupting over west Ulster evening and overnight. I think those two clusters will be most significant, can't rule out activity further west.

Plenty of lightning at present time in northern Spain and some entrainment towards s.w. England past Brittany this morning. With the heat building over Britain potential looks reasonable, GFS rainfall accumulations support the overnight development idea.
The hi res models are no use here now. It's all to play for from this evening, away from west Munster and west Connaught all areas are at risk of decent storm potential.

Always wary of the surprise with these setups - because there is always something. What would not surprise me at all is serious lightning potential across the eastern and northern parts of the country. Elsewhere it's more touch and go.
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25-06-2020, 07:13   #53
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As usual it's expect the least and hope for the best
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25-06-2020, 07:18   #54
Pangea
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Originally Posted by Kermit.de.frog View Post



Most places can expect to see lightning either over head or in the distance but perhaps midlands and northwest might go a little beyond the storms elsewhere in terms of intensity.
Sorry, but does that mean NW and Midlands will get more intense storms or least intense?
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25-06-2020, 07:18   #55
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Bank!



All models in the same vain but like I say it's only narrowly indicative at this stage. All about obs watching from now on
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25-06-2020, 07:18   #56
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As usual it's expect the least and hope for the best
That's my weather philosophy too. Oh well, a few rumbles would be nice.
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25-06-2020, 07:23   #57
Kermit.de.frog
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Sorry, but does that mean NW and Midlands are most at risk , or least at risk?
Sligo may be a bit far west but, again, just keep up to date with the observations. It's not a forecast anymore. Storms could pop up randomly in a lot of places away from west Connaught and Munster coasts later today.


EDIT: Sligo is not too far west. What am I thinking!
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25-06-2020, 07:27   #58
bazlers
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Never quoted you KDF. Wouldnt doubt you for a second��
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25-06-2020, 07:32   #59
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Sorry, but does that mean NW and Midlands will get more intense storms or least intense?
I would say if there is much action they will get the best of it. Roscommon Leitrim Donegal etc
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25-06-2020, 07:33   #60
Kermit.de.frog
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Never quoted you KDF. Wouldnt doubt you for a second��
My mistake!
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