Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium
I'm as confused as anybody.
Lightning for Dublin around 02-04h possibly? Scattered storms in the southeast overnight.
Other cells that might be rather dormant moving into the midlands late afternoon erupting over west Ulster evening and overnight. I think those two clusters will be most significant, can't rule out activity further west.
Plenty of lightning at present time in northern Spain and some entrainment towards s.w. England past Brittany this morning. With the heat building over Britain potential looks reasonable, GFS rainfall accumulations support the overnight development idea.
The hi res models are no use here now. It's all to play for from this evening, away from west Munster and west Connaught all areas are at risk of decent storm potential.
Always wary of the surprise with these setups - because there is always something. What would not surprise me at all is serious lightning potential across the eastern and northern parts of the country. Elsewhere it's more touch and go.