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25-06-2020, 00:12   #16
 
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Gonna miss Starlink launch so :-(
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25-06-2020, 00:18   #17
Storm 10
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Jez lads if this was going to happen in the West we just get on with it, anything happening in the East goes into overdrive.
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25-06-2020, 00:21   #18
Gonzo
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that chart is just insane, it's just not possible. If that came off we would probably be looking at possible 1985 territory which is a once in a lifetime event.

Being realistic we will end up with something similar to last week's event, maybe a few places getting something similar to the Wexford/Waterford storm recently.
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25-06-2020, 00:23   #19
sparrowcar
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Jez lads if this was going to happen in the West we just get on with it, anything happening in the East goes into overdrive.
Would you stop the thread was lit up here recently when the west had its own shows.

Anyway this looks special, not the handful of sparks you had down there.
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25-06-2020, 00:25   #20
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Huge drops of rain in Kildare :O
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25-06-2020, 00:28   #21
Kermit.de.frog
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that chart is just insane, it's just not possible. If that came off we would probably be looking at possible 1985 territory which is a once in a lifetime event.

Being realistic we will end up with something similar to last week's event, maybe a few places getting something similar to the Wexford/Waterford storm recently.
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25-06-2020, 00:31   #22
Gaoth Laidir
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Just comparing those crazy WRF-005 charts with actual observations.

There was a radiosonde launch fromo Cardington, near Stansted, at 21Z this evening (first plot). Second plot is the 18Z WRF forecast sounding for the same time.

The WRF completely gets low-level moisture wrong, with dewpoint at least 5 degrees too high, and this is just a 4-hour forecast. It also gets the boundary layer temperature arseways, showing way too much cooling. Otherwise it gets upper levels fairly well, apart from missing out several moist layers at mid-levels.

It would appear that this model, which is fed by the GFS, doesn't have a grip on the boundary layer conditions and is the reason why it's showing ridiculously high CAPE and LI values for tomorrow (and even this evening in much of central and NW England (shown below), where skies are clear. Use this model at your peril.





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25-06-2020, 00:42   #23
SlowMotion321
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sounds like it will be a fun show, we rarely get anything like that in the east, the only big storms i have seen were in other countries
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25-06-2020, 01:22   #24
I says
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Will I leave the dog in or out so
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25-06-2020, 01:24   #25
JCX BXC
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Will I leave the dog in or out so
When?
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25-06-2020, 01:30   #26
I says
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When?
What’s that old wives tale about dogs and thunder and lightning storms.
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25-06-2020, 01:49   #27
Bsal
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UKMO forecast

18z


21z


Then by midnight in the Irish Sea

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25-06-2020, 01:53   #28
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Estofex just out and has pretty much all of Leinster along with East Munster and East Ulster under a Level one for Severe thunderstorms

http://www.estofex.org/

"A level 1 was issued across northern Spain and northern Portugal across the Bay of Biscay into the south-western British Isles mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts."
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25-06-2020, 02:32   #29
Nabber
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It's the sparks people really wann see tho

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25-06-2020, 04:53   #30
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A small storm getting going 100 miles west of Brest in north west France at the moment, sferics going - moisture moving up from Biscay.

A good sign for instability for us later on.

It will be a good start to the day in the eastern half of the country with beautiful sunshine and helping temperatures rise.

Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 25-06-2020 at 04:57.
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