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09-06-2020, 16:25   #46
Joe Public
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2.5C at Mt. Dillon yesterday
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12-06-2020, 17:58   #47
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Average Mean temperature Dublin Airport only 11.4 so far.

Where was I going with my 15.8 prediction. I was dreaming!
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15-06-2020, 15:22   #48
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It's not as bad as you thought, the IMT is an average of five stations all of which are warmer than Dublin. This is the update for week two ...

IMT is now 12.9 C, the second week averaged 13.2 which was 0.3 below normal.

MAX 27.1 and MIN 2.5

PRC is now at 50% of normal with this past week average around 70%.

SUN has fallen to 81.5% with this past week rather cloudy at only 54% of normal (322/600).

The models were showing potential for a lot of rain but are wavering on that now, still enough different scenarios on the table to support just about all forecasts (both monthly scale and the bonus question).
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21-06-2020, 07:43   #49
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Today (Sunday 21st) is the first day of our bonus question. The bulk of Saturday's rainfall event had cleared the grid by midnight although some will be measured from it at Ballyhaise, Casement and Malin Head. So the answer to our bonus lies mainly in the production of rainfall from the slow-moving frontal trough expected to be over Ireland tomorrow and Tuesday, plus some rain from today's showers and next weekend's frontal passage. At the moment I think the middle of the pack answers may fare best but with some potential for the higher end to score well.

As mentioned earlier in the month, will be tracking this based on an assumption that 24 mm per location (in our eleven station precip grid) is "normal" for the ten days. That's 2.4 mm per day and a total of 26.4 mm per day in the grid, so will give out some running totals based on percentages of 26.4 mm. Then will adjust with reference to the ag met report after seven days and noting any changes in background normals available from that source to the 30th. These adjustments are not likely to be very large.
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22-06-2020, 20:49   #50
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Report on week three and the start of the bonus rainfall ...

IMT on 13.4 after third week averaged 14.2 which was 0.2 above average.

MAX and MIN remain 27.1 and 2.5

PRC is now at 92% of normal after a wet week that averaged 176% of normal.

SUN has fallen further to 79% after another rather cloudy week at 74.5% (447/600).

BONUS ... 24.3 mm rain on 21st in the grid, about 92% of normal.
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23-06-2020, 15:42   #51
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Will Norma L score a famous victory?
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23-06-2020, 20:53   #52
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Maybe not ... day two of the bonus question brought 121.7 mm rain which combined with day one (24.3) leaves the total at 146.0 mm, almost three times normal so far (275% approx). Today looks rather similar so we will be well on the way to a normal outcome even if later rainfalls are sparse.
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24-06-2020, 21:43   #53
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On day three of the bonus period, 104.6 mm fell around the grid, leaving the running total at 250.6 mm which compares to the estimated normal of (3 x 26.4) 79.2 mm, now 317% of normal.

If no further rain fell, this would represent just under 95% of normal for the ten days, but as we know further rain is likely. Looking at the forecasts I could almost score this already.

The only forecasters above 150% (which I think is the very least this will achieve) is Pauldry at 160% and the only other forecast higher than my 105% (shared with JPmarn) is 130% for Adam240610. So it's almost a foregone conclusion now that ten points will be heading to Pauldry and Adam240610, nine to myself and JPmarn, and the rest of the scoring in pairs (including lowest two at zero points). Looks like eight points for 200motels and Joe Public with forecasts in the high 80's. etc ... not sure why our general bias was towards a dry end to the month but it is what it is, probably that pattern we have been in for many months with a warming trend near end of month, and warmth usually being dry? Pauldry made a pretty good edit there, must say.

(Just in case the further rain proves very slight, Pauldry does need the total to reach 132.6% to score the advertised ten points, and Adam240610 needs a bit more to guarantee ten points, the outcome must be 117.6% or higher for his chances. The two at 105% still need perhaps 2% more to edge past those in the 80s currently. These amounts (including Pauldry) seem locked in to me at this point. The only issue to be settled would be whether or not reality goes past all of our forecasts or all but one.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 24-06-2020 at 21:47.
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25-06-2020, 14:12   #54
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Day four of the rainfall bonus period, just 12.5 mm over the grid, bringing total to 263.1 mm, about 250% of the normal for the period, and guaranteeing an outcome of at least 98% of normal in the absence of further rainfall.

I expect the outcome to be close to Pauldry's guess of 160% and possibly a bit higher.
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26-06-2020, 23:04   #55
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The delayed report on day five (I meant to post this at 0830 when I first figured out the number then I got doing something else) ... only 1.9 mm fell on the 25th (pre-midnight in case that sounds low to you), that takes us to 265.0 mm, whereas normal would be just about half of that. So we are near 200% of normal now, and have guaranteed an outcome of 100%. I would estimate day six (mostly this morning) dropped 40 mm on the grid, will confirm that in the morning. So we are actually at about 115% as you're reading this. Tomorrow will no doubt add at least 10% more to that.
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27-06-2020, 09:15   #56
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Day six of the bonus rainfall period seals the fate of all ... 45 mm additional rain for a total now of 310 mm, compared to normal value estimated to be (6 x 26.4) 158.4 mm. That means we are guaranteed an outcome of at least 120% and stand now just below 200 per cent (198). With estimates for today through Tuesday of 100 mm total for the grid, the outcome is going to surpass even Pauldry's grim estimate (ironically he's had even more locally).

Will continue to track this but the outcome seems inevitable now.
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28-06-2020, 13:41   #57
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Okay so on day seven of the bonus rainfall, 123.9 mm fell, a total of 433.9 mm which is about 240% of normal. I am able to check that against the ag met report which shows 242% for the grid. Without any further rain that would be about 170% of normal but of course it's raining hard in the north today. So we are now officially at the point where the highest forecast is going to be closest to the mark.
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29-06-2020, 19:42   #58
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Update on week four (or weak fore) and the bonus rainfall melodrama.

First the regular items ... the IMT is now on 13.8, with a rather warm week that averaged 15.1, 0.8 above normal.

MAX and MIN remain 27.1 and 2.5

PRC has reached 134% after a very wet week with 258% of normal.

SUN only 78% of normal, the past week managing only 71% (428/600).

The bonus rainfall continues to fill the bucket with another 66.9 mm in the grid, for a total now of 500.8 mm, which is about 230% of normal. This guarantees an outcome of at least 180%.

Finner Camp and Newport had over 40 mm each yesterday, but they aren't among the eleven stations that form our PRC grid, if they were, PRC would now be over 150% and the bonus would be over 300%.
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30-06-2020, 23:06   #59
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On day nine, 22.6 mm fell over the grid, bringing the total to 523.4 mm. Normal for nine days would be about 238 mm so this is around 220 per cent. Final reports on most parameters will appear tomorrow, perhaps with provisional scoring.

The July contest thread is open (on time deadline looms at 0300h).

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 01-07-2020 at 14:47.
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01-07-2020, 14:47   #60
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Here are the final numbers or estimates. Will check these tomorrow against the MS and score the contest then.

IMT 13.8 C.

MAX 27.1 MIN 2.5

PRC about 130%

SUN about 75%

The bonus rainfall added 10.4 mm to finish at 533.8 mm. Normal was estimated to be 264 mm. The outcome is about 205% of normal.
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