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03-06-2020, 16:52   #31
kindredspirit
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Was going to PM about that question. Can I change my figure to 70% as I can't seem to edit my entry.
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03-06-2020, 19:41   #32
Tae laidir
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Tae laidir __________ 14.4 _ 28.8 _ 3.2 _ 62 _ 118 __ 60
Change to 35%
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03-06-2020, 21:40   #33
mrskinner
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.

Please change my #6 estimate to 85%.

Grma

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03-06-2020, 22:25   #34
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I'm still not sure I understand the question lol

My thinking was :: If 100ml normally falls between 21-30 june every other year on average, then I am guessing that 50% of that total will fall. as in, 50 ml.

If that's correct, leave my answer as 50%

if its incorrect and you mean that if 100ml falls between 1-30 june this year, then just leave me on 50% anyway because I'm superstitious that way

And if both of those are incorrect, you can spell it out to me using pictograms or sock puppets or whatever you deem fit, but still leave my answer as 50%
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04-06-2020, 00:01   #35
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I'm leaving mine the same as before coz I'm too confused
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04-06-2020, 02:55   #36
M.T. Cranium
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Okay, one more try on my part to clarify what we are looking for. It's the same concept as we use for the monthly contest, percentage of normal rainfall, only we are applying it to a ten day period. The normal amount for that ten day period will be one third of the normal amount for the month of June, adjusted slightly to the trend between June and July. So let's say the normal amount in June is 60 mm and in July 64 mm, then that average is 62 mm, we are looking at a period closer to June than July so I would adjust to 61 mm. Then one third of that is 20.3 mm. So that establishes a normal, the actual amount that falls (average for eleven locations) might be 15 mm which is about 74% of the normal amount.

The seven-day ag reports that I use to generate weekly updates has a percentage of normal feature so I plan to track that to work out the results, both in terms of what is normal and what the percentage is.

So basically we are predicting how wet or dry the last ten days will be, relative to the amount that would fall averaged over 30 years in that part of June. If that explanation prompts anyone to change their guess, let me know.

Somehow I lost track of time these past few days and just realized the May contest could be scored since about 1100h, we've had some people renovating our kitchen this week and so that's my excuse (not sure what cause and effect mechanism is involved, but it's all I have).

Going over to May now to clean that up.
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04-06-2020, 07:27   #37
pauldry
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Ok then MT. Just to bring on the onset of the hottest Summer ever I'll change mine to 160%

Now there'll definitely be 45%
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04-06-2020, 16:40   #38
M.T. Cranium
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Table of forecasts for June 2020


FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Bonus __ confirmed


Appledrop ____________ 15.8 _ 28.5 _ 1.9 _ 065 _ 090 __ 80% _ ed

BLIZZARD7 ___________ 15.7 _ 30.7 _ 1.0 _ 045 _ 130 __ 10% _ th

waterways ____________14.7 _ 29.0 _ 2.1 _ 055 _ 135 __ 59% _

Dacogawa ____________ 14.6 _ 28.8 _ 1.6 _ 089 _ 092 __ 80% _ ed

KIndred Spirit _________ 14.5 _ 30.0 _ 2.5 _ 070 _ 122 __ 70% _ ed

Rikand _______ (-3) ___ 14.5 _ 30.0 _ 1.0 _ 090 _ 120 __ 50% _ ok

Tae laidir _____________ 14.4 _ 28.8 _ 3.2 _ 062 _ 118 __ 35% _ ed

Mrskinner _____ (-1) ___ 14.3 _ 28.6 _ 1.7 _ 065 _ 126 __ 85% _ ed

Artane2002 ___________ 14.3 _ 28.3 _ 1.4 _ 065 _ 112 __ 45% _ ed

sryanbruen ___________ 14.1 _ 27.9 _ 1.0 _ 070 _ 105 __ 25% __th

dasa29 _______________14.0 _ 28.5 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 120 __ 30% __th

200motels ____________ 14.0 _ 27.6 _ 1.1 _ 071 _ 103 __ 88% __ed (pm)


___ Con Sensus _______ 14.0 _ 28.4 _ 2.0 _ 075 _ 111 __ 50%


Sunflower3____________ 13.9 _ 28.0 _ 2.1 _ 075 _ 115 __ 80% __th

Jpmarn _______________13.9 _ 26.5 _ 0.5 _ 085 _ 115 __105% __ok

MrStonewall ___________13.8 _ 29.4 _ 1.6 _ 074 _ 121 __ 30%

DOCARCH ____________ 13.8 _ 27.1 _ 1.8 _ 068 _ 121 __ 30% __ed

Joe Public ____________ 13.7 _ 29.4 _ 3.4 _ 101 _ 130 __ 89% __th

john mac _____ (-2) ____13.7 _ 28.4 _ 1.1 _ 090 _ 110 __ 40% __th

Adam240610 __________13.7 _ 27.2 _ 3.3 _ 078 _ 110 __ 130% _ed


___ NormaL __________ 13.6 _ 27.5 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 __100%


Bsal _________________13.5 _ 28.5 _ 4.0 _ 075 _ 110 __ 20% __ th

M.T. Cranium _________ 13.4 _ 26.5 _ 1.8 _ 090 _ 110 __105% __me

Pauldry ______________ 13.0 _ 27.7 _ 3.0 _ 150 _ 101 __160% __ed

Tazio _______ (-6) _____12.6 _ 25.5 _ 4.5 _ 085 _ 100 __ 57% __th

mickger844posts _______12.5 _ 28.1 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 110 __ 30% __ok

___________________________________________________________

For now these are the entries, the code at the end is the status of the bonus question -- ed means edited in a post, th means post asking for updates thanked, guess assumed to be okay, ok means posted to confirm okay, me means me, and no entry means a p.m. is on the way giving those folks a heads up available to end of 5th. Anyone already shown as having considered this can still change up until then also.

Will perhaps edit consensus value for that part if necessary.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 05-06-2020 at 08:40.
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04-06-2020, 17:01   #39
DOCARCH
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Hi MT

I am changing mine to 30%....I have edited my entry.
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04-06-2020, 19:11   #40
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Dacogawa _________ 14.6 _ 28.8 _ 1.6 _ 89 _ 92 __ 33%
If not too late could I change it to 80%? Thanks!
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04-06-2020, 22:53   #41
mickger844posts
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No change from me
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05-06-2020, 00:17   #42
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No change in the bonus question as I went for slightly above rainfall for the end of the month at 105%.
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05-06-2020, 19:36   #43
M.T. Cranium
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Meanwhile noted a MAX of 27.1 on the first at Newport, not quite matched on the 2nd before the warm spell ended.
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08-06-2020, 10:05   #44
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I saw 3C at Ballyhaise 6am this morning
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08-06-2020, 13:51   #45
M.T. Cranium
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After first week of June ...

IMT 12.7, 0.2 below normal.

MAX 27.1 on 1st (Newport)

MIN around 2.5 to 3 (several locations had hourly obs of 3 C this morning).

PRC 29% of normal.

SUN 109.3% of normal (656/600).

For the bonus question, have worked out the normal value for 21-30 June. It is 24 mm on average at the eleven stations, or a total of 264, this was derived from June normals and no adjustment needed since July overall has an identical per diem rainfall (with the extra day it has very slightly higher averages overall but not at each station). So when we come to validating the bonus, I will track the total rainfall at the eleven stations and compare it to 264 mm. Then I will cross-reference the reports in the seven-day ag report to make sure we have a consistent result. You can tell from this that the June average is around 72 mm, it would be in the 60s except for Valentia being somewhat wetter than the rest. Possibly the seven day reports have some daily average values embedded that we can't access, which is why I plan to cross-reference, if it appears to me that their normals are significantly different over the ten days, then I will adjust.

Another note on the bonus, with changes people made, the consensus shifted to 58% from the 50% shown in the table but I can't edit that now, so will hope to remember that when scoring Con Sensus later on.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 08-06-2020 at 13:56.
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