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15-05-2020, 11:17   #61
sryanbruen
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Overall, more favoured to the unsettled side this morning for mid-week next week but the northern blocking signal has gone. Both GFS and ECM seem to bring the low that tries to undercut the ridge towards Ireland on Wednesday to Friday, classic summer scenario as highlighted by Gonzo previously whilst a southerly to southeasterly airflow occurs to east of us.

ECM in longer range shows the ridge getting stronger and pushing the low back into the North Atlantic. GFS is currently updating its 06z run but might be following a similar path.

I always feel like a broken record saying model uncertainty but yet again, it goes on and on and on.

EDIT: Looks like GFS is back to the northern blocking signal around the following weekend with a southerly tracking jet stream. Not good for warm and dry weather, in fact really bad. ECM has backtracked on this from yesterday evening so not sure whether to say a new trendsetter or outlier. The kind of charts 2007 and 2012 had.

Last edited by sryanbruen; 15-05-2020 at 11:30.
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15-05-2020, 11:43   #62
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yep latest updates are very dissapointing and the wet signals are coming back too. Monday to possibly Wednesday next week look decent then downhill from there with a more unsettled and Atlantic flavour. Last 10 days of May could turn out to be fairly unsettled at times with average temperatures or possibly at little below at times.
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15-05-2020, 17:56   #63
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yep latest updates are very dissapointing and the wet signals are coming back too. Monday to possibly Wednesday next week look decent then downhill from there with a more unsettled and Atlantic flavour. Last 10 days of May could turn out to be fairly unsettled at times with average temperatures or possibly at little below at times.
12z GFS similar to 06z but even more unsettled for last week of May with Greenland blocking.
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16-05-2020, 17:34   #64
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Maybe the GFS has changed since the upgrade but it used to be far too progressive when modelling the end of blocks and a pattern change. With this in mind lets see if the UKMO and ECM start to back it for a prolonged period of unsettled weather rather than a temporary unsettled spell from Thursday
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16-05-2020, 18:29   #65
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Maybe the GFS has changed since the upgrade but it used to be far too progressive when modelling the end of blocks and a pattern change. With this in mind lets see if the UKMO and ECM start to back it for a prolonged period of unsettled weather rather than a temporary unsettled spell from Thursday
a similar theme happened about 3 weeks ago. I remember the GFS was showing a very unsettled scene from 1st of May up to the 14th of May which was the extended range of GFS, we got one very poor day on the 1st of May and the following day the ensembles had all changed back to a much dryer solution. Hopefully the same will happen this time around.

I'm sure most of us won't mind a few unsettled days from Thursday once we go back to fine and settled conditions next week, but an unending onslaught of low pressures and cool windy conditions is not something we want to see heading into the start of summer! I hope the GFS has it wrong and this will only be a blip.


Edit: just checked the most recent update to the GFS and it is more similar to the ECM, showing an improving situation next week and some nice settled conditions. However I wouldn't get too excited as this is one of many runs, most recent ones have been unsettled. Again fingers crossed this is only a 3 to 4 day blip with some welcome rain and then back to dryer and warmer conditions.

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17-05-2020, 07:32   #66
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a similar theme happened about 3 weeks ago. I remember the GFS was showing a very unsettled scene from 1st of May up to the 14th of May which was the extended range of GFS, we got one very poor day on the 1st of May and the following day the ensembles had all changed back to a much dryer solution. Hopefully the same will happen this time around.

I'm sure most of us won't mind a few unsettled days from Thursday once we go back to fine and settled conditions next week, but an unending onslaught of low pressures and cool windy conditions is not something we want to see heading into the start of summer! I hope the GFS has it wrong and this will only be a blip.


Edit: just checked the most recent update to the GFS and it is more similar to the ECM, showing an improving situation next week and some nice settled conditions. However I wouldn't get too excited as this is one of many runs, most recent ones have been unsettled. Again fingers crossed this is only a 3 to 4 day blip with some welcome rain and then back to dryer and warmer conditions.
Is there anything to the suggestion that the reason the models have been so inaccurate in the medium term recently has been down to the absence of data from air traffic, especially over the Atlantic. In the absence of the data the models over time time do to the mean - an active Atlantic. It will eventually return to an active Atlantic pattern, but is interesting nonetheless
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17-05-2020, 10:28   #67
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Is there anything to the suggestion that the reason the models have been so inaccurate in the medium term recently has been down to the absence of data from air traffic, especially over the Atlantic. In the absence of the data the models over time time do to the mean - an active Atlantic. It will eventually return to an active Atlantic pattern, but is interesting nonetheless
I don't know the answer to your question. But it's a very logical explanation for why weather models might be more progressive right now, than they normally would be in this type of set-up.
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18-05-2020, 20:44   #68
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GFS finally backing off the idea of a pattern change to normal service over the next few weeks. We still have the unsettled period this week from late Thursday to Sunday, but once that's out of the way, we appear to be heading back to a generally warm and settled scene, the GFS falling in line more with the ECM.

The ensembles are drying out too, looks like we wont be seeing alot of rain next week.



After this weekends cooler period, temperatures lift up again from Monday with high teens to low twenties for much of the following week. We may have a few interruptions with low pressures flirting with Ireland, but overall the scene looks fairly settled.





The ECM is still the warmer outlook with less in the way of low pressures flirting with us.



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18-05-2020, 20:49   #69
 
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The attitude here is much more pessimstic than netweather, where they are convinced the good times are here to stay. Well after the blip this week.

Last edited by FVP3; 18-05-2020 at 20:56.
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18-05-2020, 21:13   #70
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The attitude here is much more pessimstic than netweather, where they are convinced the good times are here to stay. Well after the blip this week.
probably to do with the fact that that most of England and Wales has a better chance of staying warmer and dryer than we do. They won't be nearly as impacted by this weekends low pressure compared to us. They generally had a hotter and dryer July and a much better August than us last year too. In these setup's Ireland is often on the cooler and more unsettled side as the Atlantic continues to flirt with us every few days while they escape most of that influence unless the Atlantic makes proper inroads across north-western Europe in general.
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18-05-2020, 22:33   #71
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probably to do with the fact that that most of England and Wales has a better chance of staying warmer and dryer than we do. They won't be nearly as impacted by this weekends low pressure compared to us. They generally had a hotter and dryer July and a much better August than us last year too. In these setup's Ireland is often on the cooler and more unsettled side as the Atlantic continues to flirt with us every few days while they escape most of that influence unless the Atlantic makes proper inroads across north-western Europe in general.
Absolutely. Every year one needs to remember that England, particularly the south east, simply does not have the same climate as Ireland. Besides London is almost 500km away from Dublin. That's a big distance. It's about the same distance from San Fran to Las Vegas - and no one expects those two cities to get the same weather. It's like we're so obsessed with the UK that we expect we should also get their weather.
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18-05-2020, 23:00   #72
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Absolutely. Every year one needs to remember that England, particularly the south east, simply does not have the same climate as Ireland. Besides London is almost 500km away from Dublin. That's a big distance. It's about the same distance from San Fran to Las Vegas - and no one expects those two cities to get the same weather. It's like we're so obsessed with the UK that we expect we should also get their weather.
Yep, most people think Ireland and England have the same climate when in fact they can be worlds apart, especially in winter and summer. During the summer, the Irish sea and the Scottish border is quite often the dividing line between warm, potentially hot and sunny conditions on one side and cool, often damp and cloudy conditions on the other side. We are closer to Scotland in terms of summer weather and South-eastern half of England is more similar to northern France.



Friday's chart shows this perfectly, Ireland and Scotland usually have a band of cloud or rain very close, while England stays closer to HP for longer. Quite often these bands of cloud or rain will push through Ireland and on up to Scotland while brushing past western wales and north-west England. The low pressures some times make it across to central and southeastern England but usually in a much weakened form with far less wind and rain.
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18-05-2020, 23:45   #73
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The low pressures some times make it across to central and southeastern England but usually in a much weakened form with far less wind and rain.
But brings more thunder there also. Summer storms in the southeastern half of England are on an entirety different level to what we usually see here.
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23-05-2020, 01:06   #74
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Will need to stock up on sun-cream, ice cream and cold drinks if tonight's GFS can be believed. Plenty of dry and warm weather on the way, high teens to low twenties for many of us over the next week and possibly extending into June as well.

Tonights ensembles show a very dry scene and a warming trend from Sunday as high pressure begins to dominate.



High pressure extends its influence from Sunday and persists all week, by next Thursday it is right over us.



Staying dry and relatively warm throughout next weekend, high teens to low twenties.



High pressure as far as FI goes right up to 7th of June, there is a chance low pressure could bring cooler and more unsettled weather from Scandinavia but this appears to only really affect the UK and pushed into central Europe leaving Ireland on the warmer and more settled side for once.



For the end of May and beginning to June you couldn't ask for better.

ECM also brings plenty of settled and relatively warm conditions







Fingers crossed these runs work out, looks like after we are finished with the annoying windy and unsettled blip, the Atlantic is packing it's bags for possibly a couple of weeks.
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23-05-2020, 14:41   #75
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Will need to stock up on sun-cream, ice cream and cold drinks if tonight's GFS can be believed. Plenty of dry and warm weather on the way, high teens to low twenties for many of us over the next week and possibly extending into June as well.
Just in time for the leaving cer.... Oh.
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