Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Thread Closed  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
27-04-2020, 22:53   #16
Gonzo
Moderator
 
Gonzo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Posts: 12,019
Send a message via MSN to Gonzo
My post above deals with todays GFS run. Todays ECM run is most interesting, could be an outlier as it involves some very warm and potentially hot air.

2nd of May is similar to the GFS, warm air pushing up from the south, Ireland still relatively cool at this stage.



4th of May, the heat get's close but moves towards SE UK and northern Europe



The plume of heat then heads north-westwards over Ireland and much of the UK with +10 uppers across our south-west.



6th of May we are under some very warm air with +10 to +14C uppers over Ireland, if conditions were perfect, this would be enough to get us into the mid and possibly high 20s. However wind direction (particularly easterlies) and instability would lower the temperatures on the ground somewhat, low twenties more likely





ECM ends on May 7th with very warm air still over Ireland but low pressure approach from the south-west, this would likely produce thunder and lightning along with it.





This one is probably a long shot, but if this were to pull off temperatures across Ireland could be between 8 and 12C above normal!

Gonzo is offline  
Advertisement
27-04-2020, 23:19   #17
Meteorite58
Registered User
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 8,363
That would be most welcome after the shot of rain over the weekend Gonzo, would give some growth also. All the hallmarks for proper thunderstorm potential if we got a moist warm plume from that direction .The 12Z is a bit of a departure from the 0Z though, we will see tomorrow if it is an outlier or if a trend is starting. Interesting charts.









Meteorite58 is offline  
28-04-2020, 11:31   #18
Sammy2012
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 315
Is this nice weather still showing on the charts today??
Sammy2012 is offline  
28-04-2020, 13:17   #19
Gonzo
Moderator
 
Gonzo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Posts: 12,019
Send a message via MSN to Gonzo
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sammy2012 View Post
Is this nice weather still showing on the charts today??
The ECM still looks good (but perhaps a touch cooler than what was shown yesterday evening) and the GFS is a bit of a mixed bag. Alot to play for.
Gonzo is offline  
(2) thanks from:
28-04-2020, 14:23   #20
US2
Registered User
 
US2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2019
Posts: 1,170
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gonzo View Post
The ECM still looks good (but perhaps a touch cooler than what was shown yesterday evening) and the GFS is a bit of a mixed bag. Alot to play for.
Seems the UK could reach 30c earlier than ever before ?
US2 is offline  
Advertisement
28-04-2020, 14:38   #21
Gonzo
Moderator
 
Gonzo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Posts: 12,019
Send a message via MSN to Gonzo
Quote:
Originally Posted by US2 View Post
Seems the UK could reach 30c earlier than ever before ?
unlikely. They reached 29.4C on the 16th of April 1949 and have gotten close to 33C several times in May over the years.
Gonzo is offline  
28-04-2020, 14:41   #22
Sammy2012
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 315
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gonzo View Post
The ECM still looks good (but perhaps a touch cooler than what was shown yesterday evening) and the GFS is a bit of a mixed bag. Alot to play for.
Having a bad day today so will look at the positive side for now! Fingers crossed. Cooler and dry and sunny would be fine by me.
Sammy2012 is offline  
28-04-2020, 14:50   #23
US2
Registered User
 
US2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2019
Posts: 1,170
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gonzo View Post
unlikely. They reached 29.4C on the 16th of April 1949 and have gotten close to 33C several times in May over the years.
The earliest ever 30c in the UK is may 12th..Could easily have 30c before that this year
US2 is offline  
28-04-2020, 16:44   #24
PukkaStukka
Registered User
 
PukkaStukka's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 1,805
Quote:
Originally Posted by Meteorite58 View Post
That would be most welcome after the shot of rain over the weekend Gonzo, would give some growth also. All the hallmarks for proper thunderstorm potential if we got a moist warm plume from that direction .The 12Z is a bit of a departure from the 0Z though, we will see tomorrow if it is an outlier or if a trend is starting. Interesting charts.
Indeed....why am I reminded of June '86 with that setup
PukkaStukka is offline  
Advertisement
28-04-2020, 17:23   #25
Cork Boy 53
Banned
 
Cork Boy 53's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 3,796
Quote:
Originally Posted by US2 View Post
The earliest ever 30c in the UK is may 12th..Could easily have 30c before that this year
What year did that happen?
Cork Boy 53 is offline  
28-04-2020, 20:53   #26
Meteorite58
Registered User
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 8,363
ECM was a lot better this morning,not as warm on this run and shown to be quite wet next week but the only certainty atm is the uncertainty.

It does look like the cut off low will be meandering around sending in bands of rain over us at times , how warm depends on position, but currently not looking overly warm . Could be thundery up from the S. Presently looks cloudy and wet for a lot of the time. Complex system. GFS wants to build pressure towards the weekend.









Meteorite58 is offline  
29-04-2020, 12:44   #27
US2
Registered User
 
US2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2019
Posts: 1,170
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cork Boy 53 View Post
What year did that happen?
1945
US2 is offline  
29-04-2020, 20:52   #28
Meteorite58
Registered User
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 8,363
Well what do ya know.

Big turn around again from the ECM with HP building and on the current run blocks the Lp from moving in over us. GFS going with a very different trend these last few runs with the LP meandering around the Bay of Biscay the middle of next week. Hmmm.....









Meteorite58 is offline  
29-04-2020, 20:56   #29
Meteorite58
Registered User
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 8,363
GFS 12Z

Meteorite58 is offline  
29-04-2020, 20:58   #30
km79
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 44,796
GET IN MY BELLY
Sun sun sun
km79 is offline  
Thread Closed

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search