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24-06-2020, 23:14   #181
Meteorite58
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On the cooler and unsettled side, no shortage of rain either.





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26-06-2020, 14:38   #182
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the next 2 weeks look Atlantic dominated with plenty of cool and unsettled conditions. There will be plenty of showers or longer outbreaks of rain possibly up to the 10th of July. By then i'm expecting things to start settling down somewhat with a bit of luck.

Both the JMA and Beijing Climate Centre are hinting at high pressure building from the Azores through the middle part of July which may possibly last into early August.

Fingers crossed that the Azores does a proper job next time around with a more prolonged period of dry and warm conditions and keeping low pressures well clear of Ireland for a few weeks.

These hints of high pressure are starting to appear at the very extended range of FI, hopefully we will see this build momentum over the next 2 weeks and that the good weather does not keep getting pushed back.



ECM wants to bring high pressure in a week earlier, not sure it's well supported at this stage, but it's good to see both the ECM and GFS at least hinting towards things settling down in July.

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01-07-2020, 12:24   #183
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an update to how the next two weeks will progress. Those looking for things to settle down and warm up over the next 2 weeks will be disappointed. The next 10 to 14 days are looking rather cool with temperatures generally between 1 to 3 degrees below average. The Azores will remain just to out south most of the time but spoiler lows should ensure that the Azores never really makes it here, instead delivering a possibly very warm or hot few weeks to France and central parts of Europe. We have also lost the Scandinavian high so the Atlantic looks set to dominate much of northern Europe over the next 2 weeks with lows rattling through from the west with relative ease. Rainfall looks average and temperatures generally in the 12 to 17C range with high teens possible on days where the ridge tries to influence our weather briefly.



Signs of things settling down and warming continues to get push back, now we are looking at possibly the second half of July or the beginning of August for any serious improvement in our weather. There is every possibility that the current rather cool and unsettled pattern may continue through the month of July and into August in what is starting to look like a fairly cool and mixed summer.
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01-07-2020, 12:53   #184
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The long range ECM forecast is also looking rather cool and generally unsettled. These forecast charts show temperature and rainfall anomalies over the next 6 weeks. These should only be used as a guide as they are very long range and anything beyond the second week is so extended that it is not in any way a reliable forecast.

These charts are regularly talked about on gavsweather so i'll link the charts here for everyone to take a look at. If the charts are to be believed we are in for a cool couple of weeks with rainfall tapering off as we head into the second half of July. The north-west of Ireland looks set to see the most rainfall and the coolest temperature anomalies over the next few weeks.

The charts suggest that perhaps the last 2 weeks of July offer the best chance of some dryer weather with average temperatures rather than cooler than average. The very extended range charts cover the first 2 weeks of August and if they are to be believed the opening 10 days of August may start to trend cooler and wetter again.

Once again anything beyond the next 1 to 2 weeks is pure fantasy but looking at this 6 weeks timeline from the ECM we won't be seeing a prolonged nationwide spell of warm or settled conditions any time soon.

Link to the charts: https://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/appli...thly-forecast/
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01-07-2020, 14:06   #185
 
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Just to reply to Gonzo. There's still some hope re. the Azores high nudging towards us. I know it's the 6Z from the GFS (Generally feckin sh*te) but it could be close enough to warming up a little. maybe for southern parts at least.

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01-07-2020, 14:48   #186
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Seven Septs View Post
Just to reply to Gonzo. There's still some hope re. the Azores high nudging towards us. I know it's the 6Z from the GFS (Generally feckin sh*te) but it could be close enough to warming up a little. maybe for southern parts at least.

With the Azores high very close to us throughout the next few weeks we may get a day here and there with dry interludes and slightly warmer temperatures but anything settled looks like being very short lived as the flat westerly will be in charge most of the time. Definitely southern and eastern areas have the best chance of any signs of warmth or dryness over the next few weeks judging by recent models. Hopefully by this time next week we will see more signs of that azores getting going across the country as a whole.

The CFS wants to build a very warm scene in the last 2 weeks of July with the azores ridging just to our south-east which would draw up much warmer air from the continent but all the short range models still look Atlantic driven up to the middle of the month so it remains to be seen what will happen after next week.
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01-07-2020, 14:53   #187
 
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Originally Posted by Gonzo View Post
With the Azores high very close to us throughout the next few weeks we may get a day here and there with dry interludes and slightly warmer temperatures but anything settled looks like being very short lived as the flat westerly will be in charge most of the time. Definitely southern and eastern areas have the best chance of any signs of warmth or dryness over the next few weeks judging by recent models. Hopefully by this time next week we will see more signs of that azores getting going across the country as a whole.

The CFS wants to build a very warm scene in the last 2 weeks of July with the azores ridging just to our south-east which would draw up much warmer air from the continent but all the short range models still look Atlantic driven up to the middle of the month so it remains to be seen what will happen after next week.
The 6Z GFS keeps the 1020 millibar line over the south of Ireland 6-13 July. I'm holding out a little hope still Gonzo I know it's only one run of an iffy model.
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01-07-2020, 17:05   #188
 
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UKMO 12Z hopefull too.

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01-07-2020, 17:21   #189
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I wouldnt write the whole thing off just most of it.

There will be dry days now and again but wetter than we have been used to and the spoiler lows could make things very cold some days. Who's for 11c in July?

I think the week of 19th to 26th will bring 2 or 3 very warm days up to 24 or 25c. So take your staycation then.
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01-07-2020, 19:33   #190
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In those charts posted it's clear the high can't take hold here. The south east may get a couple of quite warm and dry days here and there, but lower pressure is too close to our north west to allow the Azores high to settle over us for the next two weeks at least. Things may improve a bit after mid- july, whereby some parts of the country tap into more settled weather, but the north west could hold on to the rain and drizzle. We could well have days in July with quite a contrast in temperatures across the country.
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01-07-2020, 21:36   #191
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If it continues like today in the north west, I'd be very happy
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01-07-2020, 22:05   #192
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nacho libre View Post
In those charts posted it's clear the high can't take hold here. The south east may get a couple of quite warm and dry days here and there, but lower pressure is too close to our north west to allow the Azores high to settle over us for the next two weeks at least. Things may improve a bit after mid- july, whereby some parts of the country tap into more settled weather, but the north west could hold on to the rain and drizzle. We could well have days in July with quite a contrast in temperatures across the country.
I never said heat wave or anything. Just drier and warmer. With less breaks in between. This week has had 11-14C days for most of the week. Next week it will be more like 17-20C and a degree or 2 higher on the best days. Some pleasant Irish Summer Weather.

Like these 2 projections on the ECM.



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02-07-2020, 13:59   #193
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I never said heat wave or anything. Just drier and warmer. With less breaks in between. This week has had 11-14C days for most of the week. Next week it will be more like 17-20C and a degree or 2 higher on the best days. Some pleasant Irish Summer Weather.

Like these 2 projections on the ECM.
Yes. It will be a bit warmer next week, but with the jet profile the way it is, i can't see it staying dry for more than a couple of days. We'll back to cool and wet days sooner rather than later on until that changes.

Last edited by nacho libre; 02-07-2020 at 17:51.
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02-07-2020, 14:40   #194
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yep not much chance of a dry or settled spell over the next 2 weeks that lasts for more than maybe 24 to 36 hours at most. We will remain close to the Azores ridge but there will be spoiler lows every few days on that flat westerly keeping the generally unsettled theme going.
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03-07-2020, 10:20   #195
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Gonzo. Whats the chances of the mixed guidance leading to a settled spell of warmth from next weekend. MT's forecast hints at this scenario. Just a hint of this chance. What are the odds..
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