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The sun is dead!! Mini iceage???

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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,489 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    Here is an article published 60 years ago this month about a theory of how Ice Ages get started.

    The Coming Ice Age (PDF version)

    September 1958
    This is the story of two scientists, who started five years ago — with a single radiocarbon clue from the ocean bottom and a wild hunch — to track down one of the earth’s great unsolved mysteries: What caused the ancient ice ages? Their search led over many continents and seas, to drowned rivers and abandoned mountain caves, into far-removed branches of science. It took them down through recorded history, from the stone tablets of primitive man to contemporary newspaper headlines.
    Maurice Ewing and the schooner Vema. Image from Neptune's Needle


    These two serious, careful scientists — geophysicist Maurice Ewing, director of Columbia University’s Lamont Geological Observatory, and geologist-meteorologist William Donn believe they have finally found the explanation for the giant glaciers, which four times during the past million years have advanced and retreated over the earth. If they are right, the world is now heading into another Ice Age. It will come not as sudden catastrophe, but as the inevitable culmination of a process that has already begun in northern oceans.

    As Ewing and Donn read the evidence, an Ice Age will result from a slow warming and rising of the ocean that is now taking place. They believe that this ocean flood — which may submerge large coastal areas of the eastern United States and western Europe — is going to melt the ice sheet which has covered the Arctic Ocean through all recorded history. Calculations based on the independent observations of other scientists indicate this melting could begin, within roughly one hundred years.

    It is this melting of Arctic ice which Ewing and Donn believe will set off another Ice Age on earth. They predict that it will cause great snows to fall in the north — perennial unmelting snows which the world has not seen since the last Ice Age thousands of years ago. These snows will make the Arctic glaciers grow again, until their towering height forces them forward. The advance south will be slow, but if it follows the route of previous ice ages, it will encase in ice large parts of North America and Europe. It would, of course, take many centuries for that wall of ice to reach New York and Chicago, London and Paris. But its coming is an inevitable consequence of the cycle which Ewing and Donn believe is now taking place.

    more


    More on Maurice Ewing

    More on Willliam L Donn

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 52 ✭✭damino


    9 days without sunspots. 151 days spotless so far this year. A few days with sunspots were questionable.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,016 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    damino wrote: »
    A few days with sunspots were questionable.
    Very questionable, the days when there was activity were described as either "barely visible" or "almost invisible" sunspots.
    still blank




  • https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/09/27/the-chill-of-solar-minimum/
    Sept. 27, 2018: The sun is entering one of the deepest Solar Minima of the Space Age. Sunspots have been absent for most of 2018, and the sun’s ultraviolet output has sharply dropped. New research shows that Earth’s upper atmosphere is responding.
    “We see a cooling trend,” says Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center. “High above Earth’s surface, near the edge of space, our atmosphere is losing heat energy. If current trends continue, it could soon set a Space Age record for cold.”


    tci.png?w=676
    Look at the values in 2010, the year with two severe winters, could we see a repeat this year?




  • Interesting article providing evidence of a correlation between weak sunspot cycle and the jet stream causing drought in parts of Europe.
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/75mt4j1ekadg370/The%20Solar%20Cycle%20is%20responsible%20for%20extreme%20weather%20and%20Climate%20change.pdf?dl=0
    ABSTRACT

    Recent discovery of the relationship between the location of the North American Jet Stream and extreme weather is a breakthrough in the understanding of solar forced climate change

    .

    Five episodes of extreme weather over a periodof 282 years deduced from tree ring datashow meandering of the North Atlantic Jet stream.

    It is fair to say that the summers of 2017 and 2018 qualify as a sixth event because of world-wide extreme weather in the northern hemisphere and also globally, resulting in flooding, wildfires and drought on every temperate continent

    .

    The monsoon has truly gone global.

    The tree ring data is the only time series data available that determines the position of a jet stream.

    Moreover, tree ring extremes correspond to weak portions of the solar minimum of the sunspot cycle, a cycle that is a proxy for the magnetic shield of the sun.

    The so-called ‘Hunger Stones’ also mark notorious years of extreme drought in Central Europe. The emergence of the Hunger Stones and the tree ring data independently support each other and support a solar cycle climate hypothesis.

    These extreme weather events correspond (75%) to years of sunspot minima.

    Therefore, it is likely the extreme weather is a function of the solar cycle.

    Solar forcing is an important factor in causing extreme weather.

    It follows that the sun controls Earth’s climate.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    10 days blank again, SFU sitting at 69.

    hmi1898.gif?PHPSESSID=ratom8bdlarfrbbpdkumb437m1


  • Registered Users Posts: 688 ✭✭✭bazlers


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    10 days blank again, SFU sitting at 69.

    hmi1898.gif?PHPSESSID=ratom8bdlarfrbbpdkumb437m1

    And now 11 days. Does the same apply for North America. In that have winters been colder in solar minimum? Going back to Dalton and even Mauder. I know statistics would not have been taken back Mauser times but has there been tree ring studies or even heard stories from generations of natives maybe? Or are we in the British isles more effected by a weaker jet stream than America?


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,721 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    Met Eireann in 2010 released a piece saying there is a correlation between a lack of sunspots and colder winters in North Western Europe.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    13 days blank, SFU down to 68. 179 blank days so far in 2018, We should easily hit the 200 days blank mark by end of December. The good old days are back...


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    17 day's blank, 183 for 2018. Blank 60% of the time.

    Solar flux 68.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 196 ✭✭A Shropshire Lad


    Redsunset wrote: »






    Are we approaching a mini iceage folks? history does have a habit of repeating itself.its definately bein colder of late.bring it on i say.here's some info on current state of our shining orb.all comments and thoughts welcome folks.
    THE SUN IS DEAD,SHOULD WE WARN OF APPROACHING MINI ICEAGE?

    Its just called winter dude


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,489 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande





    Professor Valentina Zharkova gave a presentation of her Climate and the Solar Magnetic Field hypothesis at the Global Warming Policy Foundation in October, 2018.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    We've hit 20 consecutive Spotless Days now
    2018 total: 186 days (60%)

    Might hit 200 for the year before the end of November.

    SFU @ 69.


  • Registered Users Posts: 52 ✭✭damino


    187 spotless days so far. 21 consecutive spotless days. Could exceed 200 days by years end.


  • Registered Users Posts: 721 ✭✭✭Defaulter1831


    Its just called winter dude

    No dude it's not winter. We're still in autumn until December.

    Posters are commenting on the number of days with ho sun spots throughout 2018. It can be a pointer to a colder than average winter on the way.


  • Registered Users Posts: 688 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Not sure sure if this was posted before but is an excellent table of the mean sunspots numbers from 1700 to 2014. It also shows years of min and Max.

    http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Educational/2/3/6


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,499 ✭✭✭runawaybishop


    No dude it's not winter. We're still in autumn until December.

    Get away, November will always be the start of winter!


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,721 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    Get away, November will always be the start of winter!

    November is the last month of Autumn.

    This is backed up by meteorological data.


  • Registered Users Posts: 52 ✭✭damino


    23 consecutive spotless days. 189 spotless days so far for 2018.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,905 ✭✭✭spookwoman




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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    What were the number of spotless days back in 2010? Is this year looking like it will surpass that number?


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    What were the number of spotless days back in 2010? Is this year looking like it will surpass that number?

    51 spotless days, we have gone well over that mark since the Spring/early Summer.




  • What were the number of spotless days back in 2010? Is this year looking like it will surpass that number?
    2008 was the year with the least spots.


    spaceweather.com

    Spotless Days
    Current Stretch: 0 days
    2018 total: 190 days (61%)
    2017 total: 104 days (28%)
    2016 total: 32 days (9%)
    2015 total: 0 days (0%)
    2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
    2013 total: 0 days (0%)
    2012 total: 0 days (0%)
    2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
    2010 total: 51 days (14%)
    2009 total: 260 days (71%)
    2008 total: 268 days (73%)
    2007 total: 152 days (42%)
    2006 total: 70 days (19%)
    Updated 11 Nov 2018


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    51 spotless days, we have gone well over that mark since the Spring/early Summer.

    So what you're telling me is we will have 3 months of endless blocking this winter:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    2008 was the year with the least spots.

    Interesting. If i'm not mistaken, the table you posted seems to suggest that sometimes, it's the following year after a large number of spotless days that ends up being notable wintry.




  • Interesting. If i'm not mistaken, the table you posted seems to suggest that sometimes, it's the following year after a large number of spotless days that ends up being notable wintry.
    I suppose that there is a delay between a reduction in solar activity and active weather, a bit like turning down the heat on an electric cooker.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    https://watchers.news/2018/11/11/valentina-zharkova-solar-magnet-field-and-terrestrial-climate-presentation/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

    Valentina zarkhov a solar physicist has predicted That we are going into a grand solar minimum beginning 2020 which will last three solar cycles for this one so only 30 (ish) years. She predicts severe weather, hot summers for northern hemisphere but intense cold winters with a shorter growing season. No summers for the Southern Hemisphere. She says, we will have food shortages by 2028. She has run the same equation over the past years and claims 97% accuracy. She says the sun moves in its own mini orbit and it will be furthest away from us when this happens. She explains this is not a linear graph but happens in oscillations each one getting more and more severe and ice not retreating. Interesting stuff!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,997 ✭✭✭gally74


    SeaBreezes wrote: »

    Wow, lot more compelling with UK universities involved, Russian or Ukraine scientists are very impressive




  • Valentina-Zharkova-The-Solar-Magnet-Field-and-the-Terrestrial-Climate.jpg

    I just watched the entire video, very interesting that the mathematical theory can be mapped almost exactly to the recent historic data.
    We will probably find out within a decade whether this theory is correct ot not.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,997 ✭✭✭gally74


    Valentina-Zharkova-The-Solar-Magnet-Field-and-the-Terrestrial-Climate.jpg

    I just watched the entire video, very interesting that the mathematical theory can be mapped almost exactly to the recent historic data.
    We will probably find out within a decade whether this theory is correct ot not.

    I'm not a scientist. Engineer by profession. But she does a real good job explaining the cycles etc. I never believe d the carbon story, but don't agree with carbon fuels. The cycles at is so interesting. Here's to alpine winters in 5 to 10 years time


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