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What if Ireland had not been neutral during WW2?

  • 30-12-2020 2:36pm
    #1
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 610 ✭✭✭


    Irish neutrality was directly linked to De Valera and Fianna Fail who came to power in the 1930s having reluctantly recognized the Irish Free State in the late 1920s entered the Dáil contested elections won thumping victory over WT Cosgrave and the victors of the Irish Civil War a decade before. De Valera was determined to dismantle the Treaty get rid of land loan repayments dating back to the Parnell era buy out of Anglo Irish landlords, get back the Treaty ports to keep Ireland out of future British wars, dismantle British powers over the government of Eire as Ireland was renamed and pave the road for a full constitutional independent Republic.
    De Valera did not declare a Republic while he was in office even during the Emergency because he did not want to politically abandon Northern Catholics cut off from the south under Protestant majority sectarian rule in Northern Ireland.

    Twenty years on from the start of the War of Independence 1919-1921 there would be many men who have taken up arms if the Irish state Ireland took sides against Nazi Germany. Ultra conservative Catholics who had supported Franco most definitely would have seen this as a betrayal. Die hard nationalists in the ranks of the IRA would have taken the same line. Marxists around the world taking their orders from Stalin did not support WW2 until the Nazi invasion in 1941 and ideologues in socialist republican ranks would have been no different.

    De Valera was almost shot after the 1916 Rising and could easily have died during the War of Independence and Civil War like many of his peers. It was not certain that he would emerge as the leader of Fianna Fáil led government in the 1930s after being sidelined by the IRA leadership during the Civil War 1922-23. Catholic Ireland could have adopted fascist rule possibly under Eoin O'Duffy who led the Blueshirts or some other hard line nationalists. Most of Europe adopted militaristic fascist style government at that time. If Michael Collins had lived and had filled the role De Valera had filled it is possible an Ireland less triumphantly Catholic - Collins held strong anti clerical views - and with friendlier relations with Britain - Churchill and Collins apparently grew to like eachother - might have emerged. Collins might have been quite like General Pilsudski of Poland - posing as a patriot soldier and politician.

    In this scenario Collins would have allowed Royal Navy ships to use Irish ports allowed British troops and aircraft to use bases in Ireland while British money weapons and equipment would have been used to raise Irish divisions to fight alongside the Western Allies in North Africa Italy France Germany and Asia just as the Canadian South Africans Australians Indians and New Zealanders did. Luftwaffe air attacks on Cork Waterford and Dublin would have been devastating but outraged the Irish people against the Nazis.

    American troops and aircraft would have been based across Ireland just as they were in the UK and because many would have been Irish American they would be warmly welcomed by the Irish people. However the "oversexed overpaid and over here" phenomenon that led to a sexual revolution in wartime Britain would also have played out in Ireland.

    Irish troops would have landed in Normandy and perhaps an Irish parachute division like the American British and Polish units would have taken part in drops in Holland and Germany.

    Post war Ireland would be part of NATO might have joined the EEC sooner enjoyed the benefits of the Marshall plan abandoning economic isolation industrializing during WW2 and benefitting from the post war boom without the plague of emigration. American and British air ground and nuclear forces would have been based here.

    In the 1960s more positive relations between Britain and Northern Ireland and Ireland might have existed due to the experience of war. Perhaps more reasonable government without discrimination against Catholic might emerged with bigots sidelined thus avoiding decades of the Troubles?


«13456

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 8,412 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    I doubt Colin's or anyone else would have led Ireland into the war early on , we had feic all to gain and lots to loose...
    We could have entered when it was fairly obvious that the Germans weren't going to win , but I don't think our assistance was a big deal by then ...and I don't think there's have been much change ,
    Even If there'd been a facist style coup/take over in the late 20s / 30s I reckon we'd have stayed neutral during the war , although there could well have been a forced regieme change at the wars end ...

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,228 ✭✭✭Acosta


    Didn't Ireland let allied ships use the ports anyway, in a kind of Irish way of officially you can't, but do if you really need to just don't tell anyone? Also, allied airmen were immediately repatriated. Unlike the Germans who were sent to the Curragh.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 610 ✭✭✭Samsonsmasher


    Acosta wrote: »
    Didn't Ireland let allied ships use the ports anyway, in a kind of Irish way of officially you can't, but do if you really need to just don't tell anyone? Also, allied airmen were immediately repatriated. Unlike the Germans who were sent to the Curragh.

    There was a lot of "neutral on the right side" stuff but part of the deal that brought an end to the Economic War between Ireland and the UK was the hand over of the so called Treaty Ports which had continued to be used by the Royal Navy. If that had not be concluded before the outbreak of world war Ireland would have come under Luftwaffe attack.
    The Germans had a detailed plan to land forces on our southern coast and march on Dublin.
    In the event of that happening British forces would have crossed the border to fight alongside Irish troops.
    Realistically any invasion and occupation of Ireland would have followed a British defeat and surrender first.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,979 ✭✭✭Stovepipe


    Allied airmen were not immediately repatriated at the start of the war but later, they were "allowed" to wander across the Border and in some cases, actively assisted to cross the Border. The Germans weren't and quite a few declined to make any attempt to escape.....it served Britain better that we were neutral.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,630 ✭✭✭✭whisky_galore


    Stovepipe wrote: »
    Allied airmen were not immediately repatriated at the start of the war but later, they were "allowed" to wander across the Border and in some cases, actively assisted to cross the Border. The Germans weren't and quite a few declined to make any attempt to escape.....it served Britain better that we were neutral.

    With better food, freedoms and conditions than a POW in a UK camp, why would you even bother?
    Rather tough to make an escape as an Axis prisoner from Ireland anyhow, easy to get out of the camp, getting out of the country and back home? How would you even go about it?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,979 ✭✭✭Stovepipe


    With better food, freedoms and conditions than a POW in a UK camp, why would you even bother?
    Rather tough to make an escape as an Axis prisoner from Ireland anyhow, easy to get out of the camp, getting out of the country and back home? How would you even go about it?
    Germany had plenty of sympathisers in Ireland. When pows were given parole to go to Dublin to study, and lot of people were eager to host them. If a German with connections had escaped, it wouldn't have been impossible to hide in the population. The ports were tightly controlled so access to ships was difficult but not impossible. It wasn't until later in the war and rationing began to bite that public sympathy for Germany faded.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,636 ✭✭✭feargale


    This seems to be the only thread on Irish WW2 Neutrality, so I'll post here.
    I see from time to time accusations that German U-boats were serviced by Ireland during the war. I don't know if any of these accusers,who for the most part have no love for Ireland, are suggesting the the Irish government had a hand in this, but clearly that was not so. However, see this piece by a Canadian poster in another site:

    John Fletcher, Canada:

    "The Irish fishboats would rendezvous with U -boats out in the Atlantic to sell them supplies. I had a friend who was a tail gunner on a Sunderland Flying Boat, who hunted U boats, and they would often find the boats and the subs together at night. They never had any confirmed kills on the subs, but he had several stenciled ‘sinking boats’ on his turret, as by the time he could see where they were, only the fishboat was there as the sub had submerged. He said if all his four guns were working, which was rare, the boats would just about disintegrate if he was on target!"

    Is there any truth in this? It is true that a few of our fishing ports had a strong anti-British element which might lend credence to this, but I doubt very much that the logistics of such an operation would make it possible. And at that time not many Irish fishermen had any craft other than currachs.

    Any comments, please?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,300 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    feargale wrote: »
    This seems to be the only thread on Irish WW2 Neutrality, so I'll post here.
    I see from time to time accusations that German U-boats were serviced by Ireland during the war. I don't know if any of these accusers,who for themostpart have no love for Ireland, are suggesting the the Irish government had a hand in this, but clearly that was not so. However, see this piece by a Canadian poster inanother site:

    John Fletcher, Canada:

    "The Irish fishboats would rendezvous with U -boats out in the Atlantic to sell them supplies. I had a friend who was a tail gunner on a Sunderland Flying Boat, who hunted U boats, and they would often find the boats and the subs together at night. They never had any confirmed kills on the subs, but he had several stenciled ‘sinking boats’ on his turret, as by the time he could see where they were, only the fishboat was there as the sub had submerged. He said if all his four guns were working, which was rare, the boats would just about disintegrate if he was on target!"

    Is there any truth in this? It is true that a few of our fishing ports had a strong anti-British element which might lend credence to this, but I doubt very much that the logistics of such an operation would make it possible. And at that time not many Irish fishermen had any craft other than currachs.

    Any comments, please?

    They sold them fish according to Joe Sweeney
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Sweeney_(Irish_politician)

    @34.15


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJQ3KDFGgig&t=1223s


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,636 ✭✭✭feargale


    How much would a Deutchmark buy in Donegal at that time?


  • Registered Users Posts: 24,693 ✭✭✭✭Strumms


    For the anti British sentiment, it’s better the devil you know as your neighbor....

    That said, the only interest the British may have in us around WWII would have been a tactical one.

    Had we not been neutral, the only help to the allies would have been a strategic one.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 25,907 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    feargale wrote: »
    How much would a Deutchmark buy in Donegal at that time?
    Nitpick: The currency of Germany in Nazi times was the Reichsmark. The Deutschmark wasn't launched until 1948.

    What would a Reichsmark buy in Donegal? Nothing, basically. It would have been impossible to convert to Irish currency or to sterling. None of the banks would touch it.

    If German naval vessels had a need to purchase supplies for cash while on mission, I imagine that the captain was issued with a float of suitable foreign currencies that he could use for that purpose.

    But its very unlikely that the Germans would have planned naval missions in which feeding the crew required a fortunate rendezvous with a fishing vessel in order to purchase a few pilchards. Vessels were issued with the food supplies they needed for the mission. If that wasn't possible then the mission would be planned to include stops at regular ports where supplies could be purchased, and German consular officials would arrange for settlement of the cost.

    Which is not to say that there might not have been the odd opportunistic purchase as a result of a chance encounter with a fishing vessel; fresh fish would make a pleasant change from tinned beef and powdered eggs. But it would be unplanned, occasional, and a decision made by the captain when the occasion arose. And not, of course, if it threatened the safety of the vessel or the successful completion of the mission.

    The suggestion that these encounters were planned, that the RAF were patrolling to detect them, and that they were sinking the fishing vessels involved is, I think, wholly incredible.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,412 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    It probably also would have fairly close to shore , not a lot of big Irish fishing boats back then , not a lot of need to go far offshore ...
    And if an armed submarine surfaced next to you and politely offered to buy your catch you'd wanna be pretty brave to argue with them ...

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,416 ✭✭✭✭AMKC
    Ms


    Such a pity that De Velera was not shot in 1916. Some lucky alternate reality got that one. We unfortunatly had to suffer him for many more decades to come.i am glad it was not De Velera that declared a Republic. It should have been Micheal Collins that got that honour but because of the civil war and some of De Veleras goones killing Collins he never did. Do I think Collins would have let the British use bases in Ireland during WW2 no not a hope not unless there was a big payment for it and I doubt there would have been as every cent Britain had then was going to the war effort. Its not like it would have benefitted Britain much anyway. Maybe a few naval bases on the west coast might have but that's about it.

    Live long and Prosper

    Peace and long life.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,630 ✭✭✭✭whisky_galore


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    Nitpick: The currency of Germany in Nazi times was the Reichsmark. The Deutschmark wasn't launched until 1948.

    What would a Reichsmark buy in Donegal? Nothing, basically. It would have been impossible to convert to Irish currency or to sterling. None of the banks would touch it.

    If German naval vessels had a need to purchase supplies for cash while on mission, I imagine that the captain was issued with a float of suitable foreign currencies that he could use for that purpose.

    But its very unlikely that the Germans would have planned naval missions in which feeding the crew required a fortunate rendezvous with a fishing vessel in order to purchase a few pilchards. Vessels were issued with the food supplies they needed for the mission. If that wasn't possible then the mission would be planned to include stops at regular ports where supplies could be purchased, and German consular officials would arrange for settlement of the cost.

    Which is not to say that there might not have been the odd opportunistic purchase as a result of a chance encounter with a fishing vessel; fresh fish would make a pleasant change from tinned beef and powdered eggs. But it would be unplanned, occasional, and a decision made by the captain when the occasion arose. And not, of course, if it threatened the safety of the vessel or the successful completion of the mission.

    The suggestion that these encounters were planned, that the RAF were patrolling to detect them, and that they were sinking the fishing vessels involved is, I think, wholly incredible.

    It's not like a u boat could stop off at a Centra, it had to be self sufficient for a patrol.
    If an opportunity for say, a small amount of fresh fish was presented, barter would be the done thing. Bottles of beer or bottle of schnapps, chocolate, cigarettes etc.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,630 ✭✭✭✭whisky_galore


    Stovepipe wrote: »
    Germany had plenty of sympathisers in Ireland. When pows were given parole to go to Dublin to study, and lot of people were eager to host them. If a German with connections had escaped, it wouldn't have been impossible to hide in the population. The ports were tightly controlled so access to ships was difficult but not impossible. It wasn't until later in the war and rationing began to bite that public sympathy for Germany faded.

    Getting off the island is still a problem. Afaik no one made a home run to Germany from Ireland during the conflict. Why would you want to anyway? Good food (compared to German rationing), no one shooting at you, opportunities for study, pubs, dances and women? Great place to sit it out.

    You would need to be one deranged committed Nazi to want to escape especially later in the war.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,875 ✭✭✭Edgware


    No sense glorifying Collins and saying that he would not have entered WW2. ( he signed a Treaty agreeing to let Britain have the Ports so getting them back was not his priority) We just dont know what he would have done in the 20s and we could have had a decade of civil war but this time between the hopelessly armed Free State against a British backed U.V.F.
    If we had entered on behalf of the Allies we certainly would have been subject to a lot more bombing by the Luftwaffe. We would also have been able to receive massive support from the Marshall Plan as part of the rebuilding of Europe.
    Its hard to estimate the human cost but it would probably run into tens of thousands


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,416 ✭✭✭✭AMKC
    Ms


    Getting off the island is still a problem. Afaik no one made a home run to Germany from Ireland during the conflict. Why would you want to anyway? Good food (compared to German rationing), no one shooting at you, opportunities for study, pubs, dances and women? Great place to sit it out.

    You would need to be one deranged committed Nazi to want to escape especially later in the war.
    Because they were brainwashed and it's all they knew.
    Edgware wrote: »
    No sense glorifying Collins and saying that he would not have entered WW2. ( he signed a Treaty agreeing to let Britain have the Ports so getting them back was not his priority) We just dont know what he would have done in the 20s and we could have had a decade of civil war but this time between the hopelessly armed Free State against a British backed U.V.F.
    If we had entered on behalf of the Allies we certainly would have been subject to a lot more bombing by the Luftwaffe. We would also have been able to receive massive support from the Marshall Plan as part of the rebuilding of Europe.
    Its hard to estimate the human cost but it would probably run into tens of thousands

    If that had of been the case the some of us but mostly I would say people who parents lived in the cities at the time might not be here now as there parents might not have made it. Only one way to know do and that is to visit an alternate reality but to do that we need to find out how to first.

    Live long and Prosper

    Peace and long life.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,907 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Edgware wrote: »
    . . . If we had entered on behalf of the Allies we certainly would have been subject to a lot more bombing by the Luftwaffe. We would also have been able to receive massive support from the Marshall Plan as part of the rebuilding of Europe.
    Marshall Plan aid was distributed witout regard to former belligerent status - former allied countries, former axis countries and former neutral countries were all offered it on similar terms. We did receive Marshall Plan grants — a total of $133 million which, per capita, works out at about 88% of what the UK received. We might have got a little bit more if we had joined the allies, but not much. The countries that got very much more generous funding than we did were mainly neutral countries that had been invaded and occupied by the Axis — Denmark, the Netherlands, Greece. The most generously-treated country was Iceland, a neutral country invaded and occupied by the Allies.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,546 ✭✭✭rock22


    AMKC wrote: »
    Such a pity that De Velera was not shot in 1916. Some lucky alternate reality got that one. We unfortunatly had to suffer him for many more decades to come.i am glad it was not De Velera that declared a Republic. It should have been Micheal Collins that got that honour but because of the civil war and some of De Veleras goones killing Collins he never did. Do I think Collins would have let the British use bases in Ireland during WW2 no not a hope not unless there was a big payment for it and I doubt there would have been as every cent Britain had then was going to the war effort. Its not like it would have benefitted Britain much anyway. Maybe a few naval bases on the west coast might have but that's about it.

    I think you have a very unique view the De Valera/Collins relationship with the British.
    But just to speculate. If De Valera had died and Collins lived then the Churchill would have been quick to remind him,. i.e. Collins, that he succeeded in the civil war only thanks to British guns. And it is now pay back time .The British did try to pressurise De Valera so they would certainly pressurise Collins.
    What the British wanted most were our ports although they would have probably developed airports as well to help in the war in the Atlantic.

    We would probably have suffered some air attacks. But as that would have required diverting Luftwaffe planes away from the UK we might have escaped.

    Thankfully we had De Valera at the time to ensure we could remain neutral.


  • Registered Users Posts: 24,011 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    I don't understand why people are assuming it would be Collins in charge during the war if De Valera was dead. Collins would have lead CnG/FG who probably would still have lost the elections after 10+ years in charge and someone would have emerged to challenge them. I'm not sure who maybe Aiken, Lemass or most likely O'Kelly but someone would have gotten the better of CnG


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  • Registered Users Posts: 23,716 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    When the US entered the War in Dec 41, Ireland should have declared war on Germany and facilitated US and Canadian forces (and free French, Polish etc) to conduct operations against the Axis powers, all in exchange for reunification of the island.

    Ireland as a base would have enabled significant force projection for the War in the north and mid Atlantic, and would likely have turned the tide against the Nazi submarine Wolf packs and enabled faster build up of US food and weapons products in Europe. Who knows, they could have taken a year or more off the War.


  • Registered Users Posts: 25,907 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    breezy1985 wrote: »
    I don't understand why people are assuming it would be Collins in charge during the war if De Valera was dead. Collins would have lead CnG/FG who probably would still have lost the elections after 10+ years in charge and someone would have emerged to challenge them. I'm not sure who maybe Aiken, Lemass or most likely O'Kelly but someone would have gotten the better of CnG
    Oh, gosh, we're into historical what-ifs here, which are fun but pointless. If Collins had survived and Dev have died we can't assume that there would ahve been any elections to lose; on the pro-Treaty side, Collins might well have become Ireland's Mussolini, and we could have had an effective one-party state by the mid-20s. On the other side, with no Dev, even if Ireland wasn't a one-party state by then, who's to say that Fianna Fáil or an FF equivalent would have split from SF and entered the Dáil in 1927, or ever?


  • Registered Users Posts: 274 ✭✭scottigael


    Considering the north strand bombing and how destructive a single bomber was I think neutrality was to our benefit our towns and cities would have suffered immensely had we joined.

    However if Churchill had gone ahead and offered the north as he did (drunkenly allegedly) once or twice along with a few dozen anti aircraft guns it may have been worth it


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 163 ✭✭spring lane jack


    Dev could have lost it altogether and joined the Axis. Imagine the big stupid head on him next to Il Duce and the Fuhrer. The Brits would have absolutely flipped and probably would have occupied us again. We would have been seen as total scum to the rest of the English speaking world.


  • Registered Users Posts: 25,907 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    When the US entered the War in Dec 41, Ireland should have declared war on Germany and facilitated US and Canadian forces (and free French, Polish etc) to conduct operations against the Axis powers, all in exchange for reunification of the island.

    Ireland as a base would have enabled significant force projection for the War in the north and mid Atlantic, and would likely have turned the tide against the Nazi submarine Wolf packs and enabled faster build up of US food and weapons products in Europe. Who knows, they could have taken a year or more off the War.
    The UK did sound out De Valera on entering the war/offering the treaty ports in return for reunification of Ireland after the war. Dev's response was to ask what James Craig thought of the proposal and, when he was told that Craig knew nothing of it, he knew it was bogus.

    It wouldn't have been within the power of the US to offer a unified Ireland in return for Irish entry into the war, and if the UK had been willing and able to make such a offer seriously, they would already have done so.


  • Registered Users Posts: 25,907 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Dev could have lost it altogether and joined the Axis. Imagine the big stupid head on him next to Il Duce and the Fuhrer. The Brits would have absolutely flipped and probably would have occupied us again. We would have been seen as total scum to the rest of the English speaking world.
    Well, that's the thing with alternative histories. In the real world, Dev didn't align with the Axis; real-world Dev, for all his faults, wouldn't have done such a thing in a fit. In alternative-world where Dev joins the Axis, we can't say that "we would have been seen as total scum to the rest of the English speaking world" because, in alternative world, Churchill and Roosevelt might also have joined the Axis.


  • Registered Users Posts: 24,011 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    Oh, gosh, we're into historical what-ifs here, which are fun but pointless. If Collins had survived and Dev have died we can't assume that there would ahve been any elections to lose; on the pro-Treaty side, Collins might well have become Ireland's Mussolini, and we could have had an effective one-party state by the mid-20s. On the other side, with no Dev, even if Ireland wasn't a one-party state by then, who's to say that Fianna Fáil or an FF equivalent would have split from SF and entered the Dáil in 1927, or ever?


    The whole premise of the thread is a historical what if


  • Registered Users Posts: 25,907 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    breezy1985 wrote: »
    The whole premise of the thread is a historical what if
    Yes, I know. But what-ifs are only interesting if the what-if is at least modestly plausible, so we can rationally consider how it might have played out. Dev aligning Ireland with the Axis is so wildly unmoored in any kind of reality that a world in which that could have happened is so radically different from our own that we cannot really talk about what would have ensued. "What if Dev had aligned Ireland with the Axis?" is pretty much on a par with "What if Chamberlain had aligned the UK with the Axis?" In both cases, to consider the hypothesis in any meaningful way you have to consider why such a thing would have happened. Basic facts would have to have been very different before either leader would have considered such a course of action and, if basic facts were that different, then the what-if largely becomes teasing out the other consequences of such a difference. The circumstances which might have lead Dev to join the Axis would certainly mean that Dev joining the Axis — and many other things — would have played out very differently.

    The interesting what-ifs are the ones that might, plausibly, have happened in our world. What if the UK had not handed back the treaty ports in 1938? What if someone other than Churchill had become PM on Chamberlain's resignation? What if Hitler had not declared war on the US in December 1941?

    If Collins has survived but Dev has not, then the whole civil war and its aftermath plays out differently. The way you frame the question suggests that you assume that FF would have emerged anyway, and there would have been elections which FF would have won at about the same time that they did, in fact, win elections. But, really, in the scenario we are considering we have no reason to think that either of these things would have happened.


  • Registered Users Posts: 24,011 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    Yes, I know. But what-ifs are only interesting if the what-if is at least modestly plausible, so we can rationally consider how it might have played out. Dev aligning Ireland with the Axis is so wildly unmoored in any kind of reality that a world in which that could have happened is so radically different from our own that we cannot really talk about what would have ensued. "What if Dev had aligned Ireland with the Axis?" is pretty much on a par with "What if Chamberlain had aligned the UK with the Axis?" In both cases, to consider the hypothesis in any meaningful way you have to consider why such a thing would have happened. Basic facts would have to have been very different before either leader would have considered such a course of action and, if basic facts were that different, then the what-if largely becomes teasing out the other consequences of such a difference. The circumstances which might have lead Dev to join the Axis would certainly mean that Dev joining the Axis — and many other things — would have played out very differently.

    The interesting what-ifs are the ones that might, plausibly, have happened in our world. What if the UK had not handed back the treaty ports in 1938? What if someone other than Churchill had become PM on Chamberlain's resignation? What if Hitler had not declared war on the US in December 1941?

    If Collins has survived but Dev has not, then the whole civil war and its aftermath plays out differently. The way you frame the question suggests that you assume that FF would have emerged anyway, and there would have been elections which FF would have won at about the same time that they did, in fact, win elections. But, really, in the scenario we are considering we have no reason to think that either of these things would have happened.

    I believe someone would have beaten CnG in an election in the 30s based mostly on the fact that Irish politics and also most similar systems would point to voter fatigue after 10/15 years so assuming democracy prevailed which would be the most likely outcome then all indicators point to a CnG loss in the 30s


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,546 ✭✭✭rock22


    Dev could have lost it altogether and joined the Axis. Imagine the big stupid head on him next to Il Duce and the Fuhrer. The Brits would have absolutely flipped and probably would have occupied us again. We would have been seen as total scum to the rest of the English speaking world.

    Dev spoke against Mussolini in the league of nations and wanted the large countries of the world to take action after the invasion of Ethiopia. When they failed to, Dev lost trust in the large powers ever doing anything to aid the small nations, hence his strong position on neutrality.

    There was no likelihood of Dev aligning with the Axis.

    Despite pleas from the UK, and earlier France, the US remained resolutely neutral even after Pearl Harbour. It only entered the war in Europe after Hitler declared war on it. Hitler never declared war on Ireland in the same way.

    It is also not likely that there would have been any popular support for entering the war amongst the general population here.


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