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28-02-2019, 22:43   #16
mrskinner
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Skinner..... 6.5_____16.1_____-4.1_____100_____100______12.5 Belmullet.
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28-02-2019, 23:18   #17
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DOCARCH___7.2__17.8__-4.6__105__95__9.3__Sherkin
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28-02-2019, 23:47   #18
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Rikand ____ 7.5 ___ 18.0 ___ -5.0 ____ 90 ____ 120 ____ 14.0 Mount Dillon
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28-02-2019, 23:57   #19
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200motels. _6.1_16.9_-3.4_106__97_12.8__Oak Park
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28-02-2019, 23:58   #20
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Dasa29 ___ 7.1 ___ 17.5 ___ -3.0 ___ 120 ___ 110 ___ 14.5 Mullingar.
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01-03-2019, 00:53   #21
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Adam240610___6.5_18.8_-3.3_105_95_14.4 Oak Park
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01-03-2019, 01:10   #22
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Jpmarn _____ 6.9 __ 18.5 _ -4.7 _ 110 _ 115___ 11.0 Shannon
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01-03-2019, 01:28   #23
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Tae laidir _____ 7.3 __ 17.4 _ -2.8 _ 133 _ 94 ___ 10.3 Shannon
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01-03-2019, 08:05   #24
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Rameire___7.0__18.9__-2.4__112__115__10.0 Casement
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02-03-2019, 22:45   #25
M.T. Cranium
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Table of forecasts for March, 2019


FORECASTER _________IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Bonus (17th warmest)


Pauldry ______________7.8 _ 19.0 _ -3.4 _ 102 _ 115 ___ 13.0 _ Valentia

Kindred Spirit _________7.8 _ 18.5 _ -3.2 _ 125 _ 095 ___ 13.5 _ Phoenix Park

waterways ___________ 7.5 _ 19.5 _ -3.5 _ 117 _ 093 ___ 12.7 _ Casement

Rikand ______________ 7.5 _ 18.0 _ -5.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 14.0 _ Mount Dillon

Bazlers ______________ 7.3 _ 18.8 _ -5.0 _ 115 _ 090 ___ 15.0 _ Mullingar

Tae laidir _____________7.3 _ 17.4 _ -2.8 _ 133 _ 094 ___ 10.3 _ Shannon

Dacogawa ____________7.2 _ 18.4 _ -4.4 _ 160 _ 082 ___ 12.2 _ Valentia

M.T. Cranium _________ 7.2 _ 18.0 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 14.5 _ Gurteen

DOCARCH ____________ 7.2 _ 17.8 _ -4.6 _ 105 _ 095 ____ 9.3 _ Sherkin

Dasa29 ______________ 7.1 _ 17.5 _ -3.0 _ 120 _ 110 ___ 14.5 _ Mullingar

Bsal _________________7.1 _ 17.1 _ -3.0 _ 102 _ 095 ___ 11.0 _ Phoenix Park

Rameire ___ (-2) ______ 7.0 _ 18.9 _ -2.4 _ 112 _ 115 ___ 10.0 _ Casement


Con Sensus ___________7.0 _ 18.0 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 097 ___ 13.0 _ (based on locations chosen)*


JCXBXC ______________7.0 _ 18.0 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.0 _ Gurteen

Sunflower3 ___________7.0 _ 17.0 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 14.0 _ Mount Dillon

Jpmarn ______________6.9 _ 18.5 _ -4.7 _ 110 _ 115 ___ 11.0 _ Shannon


Normal ______________ 6.8 _ 17.5 _ -5.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.0 _ location pts by climate


John mac ____________ 6.7 _ 18.0 _ -3.7 _ 104 _ 097 ___ 14.8 _ Oak Park

Adam240610 _________ 6.5 _ 18.8 _ -3.3 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 14.4 _ Oak Park

MrSkinner ____________6.5 _ 16.1 _ -4.1 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 12.5 _ Belmullet

Artane2002 ___________6.3 _ 16.8 _ -4.8 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 14.3 _ Valentia

sryanbruen ___________6.3 _ 16.2 _ -4.1 _ 130 _ 105 ___ 14.0 _ Shannon

200motels ____________6.1 _ 16.9 _ -3.4 _ 106 _ 097 ___ 12.8 _ Oak Park

mickger844posts ______ 6.0 _ 16.7 _ -3.0 _ 120 _ 088 ___ 11.8 _ Oak Park

BLIZZARD7 ___________5.8 _ 21.7 _ -7.0 _ 115 _ 115 ____ 9.8 _ Valentia

Joe Public ____________ 5.3 _ 17.2 _ -7.5 _ 121 _ 080 ___ 12.1 _ Sherkin Island
_____________________________________________________________

*Locations for warmest on 17th ...

Oak Park, Valentia ____4
Shannon ___________ 3
Gurteen, Phoenix Park,
Casement, Mountdillon,
Mullingar, Sherkin ____ 2
Belmullet ___________ 1

__________________________________________________

Con Sensus is median, average of 12th and 13th ranked forecasts.
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05-03-2019, 21:01   #26
pauldry
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Rainfall could go minimum progression this month if the rains dont ease soon
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08-03-2019, 16:06   #27
M.T. Cranium
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After the first week ...

IMT on 6.1 C, which is 0.2 below average for the period.

MAX and MIN have not really been factors yet, will hunt them down if necessary.

PRC so far 320% of normal, which already guarantees a normal amount if 30% of normal falls from now to end of month.

SUN has opened up with 95% (569/600) of normal.
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15-03-2019, 17:17   #28
M.T. Cranium
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After two weeks ...

IMT on 6.3 with this week at 6.5, continuing the earlier trend at 0.2 below average.

MAX and MIN have not really been in play yet, I have not noticed any contenders anyway.

PRC continues very high, now at 285% with the past week 249% of normal. With no further rainfall this would guarantee 120% and there's another 10% of a month's worth in the forecast by Saturday evening so safe to say the outcome is likely to be building from a set 130%, if the trend is then rather dry, could end up in the 140-150 range. We have a forecast at 160% (Dacogawa) which could invoke the reduced minimum progression scenario. If that forecast gets 13/15 or more as a raw score, then all other boosts are reduced by half. The second highest forecast is 130% so for that to be the case, all other forecasts would be in need of a boost. So instead of just going off the usual rank ordered 15, 14, 13 etc, it would be something like 15, 10, 8, 7 etc.

SUN continues its earlier trend of near normal appearances, this past week (99%, 596/600) leaves the running average at 97% of normal.

It would appear that relatively low forecasts for the 17th will do best. The four lowest are 9.3 (DOCARCH), 9.8 (BLIZZARD7), then 10.0 (Rameire) with Tae laidir at 10.3.
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18-03-2019, 12:44   #29
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The answer to the Bonus Question is the Highest temperature for St. Patrick's Day 17 March and location is 11.8°C at Phoenix Park Station. There were quite a few stations maxing around 11°C but Shannon just got 10.0°C on St Patrick’s Day.
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19-03-2019, 01:08   #30
M.T. Cranium
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Thanks and sorry that I'm a bit late getting to this bonus scoring, wonderful weather here for a change so I claim disorientation.

As mentioned above, 11.8 at Phoenix Park topped the list, a bit warmer than the pattern really deserved but what can you do? The second and third warmest readings (these count for two points in location) were 11.2 Belmullet and 11.1 Mountdillon. As the warmest reading was in Leinster, anyone who chose any location in Leinster gets one point (as neither Belmullet or Mountdillon are in Leinster, any location in Leinster other than Phoenix Park cannot get two points).

Scores will be as follows ... with superbonus and bonus points considered. It turned out that only Bsal qualified for one superbonus point with a score of 6 for temperature and 3 for the right location. None of the 2nd/3rd location winners had a top ranked temperature score which would have qualified them.


FORECASTER _________17th Max forecast _____ Temp _ Loc'n_superbonus_TOTAL


Bsal ________________ 11.0 _ Phoenix Park _____ 6 ____ 3 ____ 1 ____ 10

mickger844posts ______ 11.8 _ Oak Park ________ 7 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 8

MrSkinner ____________12.5 _ Belmullet ________ 6 ____ 2 ____ 0 _____ 8


___ Normal __________ 13.0_(PP likely by climate)_5 ____ 3 ____ 0 _____ 8


Kindred Spirit _________13.5 _ Phoenix Park ______4 ____ 3 ____ 0 _____ 7

Joe Public ____________12.1 _ Sherkin Island ____ 7 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 7

Dacogawa ____________12.2 _ Valentia _________7 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 7

waterways ___________ 12.7 _ Casement ________5 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 6

200motels ____________12.8 _ Oak Park ________ 5 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 6

Jpmarn ______________ 11.0 _ Shannon ________ 6 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 6


___ Con Sensus _______ 13.0 _ (PP 3rd choice) ___ 5 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 6


Pauldry ______________13.0 _ Valentia _________ 5 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 5

Rameire _____________ 10.0 _ Casement ________4 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 5

Rikand ______________ 14.0 _ Mount Dillon ______3 ____ 2 ____ 0 _____ 5

JCXBXC ______________13.0 _ Gurteen _________ 5 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 5

Sunflower3 ___________ 14.0 _ Mount Dillon _____ 3 ____ 2 ____ 0 _____ 5

Tae laidir ____________ 10.3 _ Shannon _________4 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 4

sryanbruen ___________ 14.0 _ Shannon ________ 3 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 3

BLIZZARD7 ____________9.8 _ Valentia _________ 3 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 3

DOCARCH ____________ 9.3 _ Sherkin __________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2

Dasa29 ______________14.5 _ Mullingar _________1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2

Adam240610 _________ 14.4 _ Oak Park _________1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2

Artane2002 ___________14.3 _ Valentia _________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2

M.T. Cranium _________ 14.5 _ Gurteen _________ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1

John mac ____________ 14.8 _ Oak Park _________0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1

Bazlers ______________ 15.0 _ Mullingar ________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1

________________________________________________________________________

Well done to Bsal for the overall best forecast and to mickger844posts with the closest temperature (right on the mark) and also MrSkinner for a tied second for overall points with mickger844posts. Kindred Spirit was the only other forecaster (with Bsal) to pick Phoenix Park.
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