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31-08-2019, 16:05   #61
Gaoth Laidir
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Originally Posted by pad199207 View Post
Unconfirmed yet by NOAA that latest recorded surface winds are near 160mph!

Confirmed as 150mph now so still just under Cat 5.
West side of the storm doesn’t look as organized perhaps due to some mid level shear. Still obviously not having any effect on the storms intensification
That was an isolated 138-kt SFMR reading, followed by one of 127 kts.

142730 2603N 07319W 7477 02145 9555 +165 +161 096112 131 138 004 00



It's good to see that track now.moving further offshore and even more away from the northern Bahamas. This could turn into a fishstorm after all that!
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31-08-2019, 16:16   #62
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Wind field based on aircraft recon data. Max 132 kts just 8 NM to the ENE of the centre. Strongest winds still in a very small area of the eyewall, with 64 kts winds extending only 20-25 NM out.

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31-08-2019, 16:27   #63
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Air Force recording wind of 144 knots in the latest
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31-08-2019, 16:49   #64
Gaoth Laidir
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Air Force recording wind of 144 knots in the latest
Really? In Mission 23? It's not showing it in the data. 121 kts is the highest so far.
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31-08-2019, 16:59   #65
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Really? In Mission 23? It's not showing it in the data. 121 kts is the highest so far.
Yeah well to be fair this was mentioned on the CNN Forecast little while ago so I’m sure how accurate it is.
I presume it’s fairly on the ball.
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31-08-2019, 17:14   #66
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Yeah well to be fair this was mentioned on the CNN Forecast.
'Nuff said.
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31-08-2019, 17:37   #67
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Really? In Mission 23? It's not showing it in the data. 121 kts is the highest so far.
Recon going back in now so we see what they get.
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31-08-2019, 17:52   #68
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Yeah well to be fair this was mentioned on the CNN Forecast little while ago so I’m sure how accurate it is.
I presume it’s fairly on the ball.

NOAA reporting near 150mph also.

https://twitter.com/NOAASatellites/s...873146880?s=20


Dorian tracking slowly right over the Bahamas

ECM takes it very close to the coast of Florida , stall and turn ? Nervy times .



Mean wind speeds

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31-08-2019, 19:00   #69
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Aircraft recon does show a 140-knot (160 mph) surface wind measured at 16.36 Z, well after that CNN report of 144 kt (166 mph). I think they may have been confusing knots with statute mph. The latest NHC update (18Z) says max 150 mph.

The latest forecast track has it now way out to sea and looking unlikely to ever make landfall at all after the Bahamas.

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31-08-2019, 19:16   #70
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They may dodge a bullet alright.
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31-08-2019, 19:44   #71
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NHC Director: "The track of Dorian is a game of inches."

Small wobbles one way or another can make a world of difference.




Levi Cowan : ' Weak steering currents & stalling storms should never be trusted.

With 72 hours before Dorian turns north, even a 1 mph error in the storm's speed until then could result in a 72 mile error in how far west Dorian gets.

Stay vigilant. More changes could occur. It's a tough one.'


Ryan Maue 'The eye of Hurricane #Dorian will spend at least 36-hours meandering around Abaco & Grand Bahama Islands ... current forecast track is a disaster: feet of Rain, storm surge, and Cat 4 sustained winds.'
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31-08-2019, 19:49   #72
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Knife edge stuff - miles the difference between disaster and no disaster
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31-08-2019, 19:51   #73
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The webcams I posted, most of them will come alive tonight into tomorrow morning, you may catch daylight arrival of Dorian around 1/2am in some of them. Dorian has been moving faster across the water but set to slow rapidly upon reaching Bahama islands.
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31-08-2019, 20:08   #74
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Dorian looks like it will be a Cat 4 or Cat 5 Hurricane with its eyewall likely to go near or directly over the Abaco Islands as it continues to move over increasing warm waters along with other parameters sustaining its strengthening.


Tropical Tidbits








https://twitter.com/NWSBayArea/statu...551183877?s=20

Last edited by Meteorite58; 31-08-2019 at 20:11.
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31-08-2019, 20:45   #75
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ECM ensemble in little doubt this will be taking a sharp right turn possibly even before it clears through the Bahamas.

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