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21-08-2019, 10:00   #61
Jpmarn
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All Ireland Final Day 20
Max temperatures
Leinster 18.9 Oak Park
Ulster 18.7 Malin Head and Magilligan, Derry.
Connaught 18.0 Claremorris

Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 15-5
Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 12-8.

Thanks M.T. for the tip on the Meteociel website.
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22-08-2019, 10:04   #62
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All Ireland Final Day 21
Max temperatures
Leinster 17.0 Johnstown Castle
Ulster 17.7 Castlederg Co. Tyrone
Connaught 19.0 Newport.

Scores, Leinster v Ulster 0-1 total 15-6
Leinster v Connaught 0-1 total 12-9.
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22-08-2019, 16:52   #63
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After three weeks ...

IMT on 15.4, third week averaged 14.6 which was 0.7 below normal.

MAX remains 25.4 and MIN 4.6.

PRC is still well above average at 182% of normal, the third week average was 165% and this guarantees 122% of normal if the rest of the month is dry.

SUN has managed to get some play time between the rainfalls, with the month at 104% and this past week 110% (659/600).

Will post an update on the bonus scoring situation now that the count has reached 15-6 for Leinster.
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22-08-2019, 17:16   #64
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Here's an update on the bonus scoring for both August and the entire summer, slight changes have been made to the table posted a few days ago as the new score of 15-6 reduces the maximum possible score for 26-5 and 28-3 forecasts by one. August forecasts in bold require all remaining days to be wins for Leinster.

____________________________________________ provisional scores __

FORECASTER _____ June-July total ___ August fcst __ Max score ___ TOTAL

sryanbruen __________ 20 ____________21-10 ______ 10 ________ 30

200motels ___________19 ____________20-11 ______ 10 ________ 29

Tae laidir ____________17 ____________21-10 ______ 10 ________ 27

mickger844posts ______17 ___________ 23 - 8 ______ 10 ________ 27

Bsal ________________17 ____________22 - 9 ______ 10 ________ 27

Adam240610 ________ 17 ____________22 - 9 ______ 10 ________ 27

waterways ___________17 ___________ 25-6 _______ 10 ________ 27

JPmarn _____________ 17 ___________ 21-10 ______ 10 ________ 27

Artane 2002 _________ 16 ___________ 23 - 8 ______ 10 ________ 26

Pauldry _____________ 16 ___________ 22 - 9 ______ 10 ________ 26

sunflower3 __________ 16 ___________ 20-11 ______ 10 ________ 26

JCX BXC ____________ 16 ___________ 25 - 6 ______ 10 ________ 26

dasa29 _____________ 15 ___________ 17-14 ______ 10 ________ 25

DOCARCH ___________14 ___________ 26 - 5 _______ 9 ________ 24

Mr Skinner __________ 14 ___________ 21-10 ______ 10 ________ 24

M.T. Cranium ________ 14 ___________ 22 - 9 ______ 10 ________ 24

john mac ___________ 14 ___________ 17-14 _______10 ________ 24

Kindred Spirit ________12 ___________ 24 - 7 _______10 ________ 22

Rameire ____________ 12 ___________ 22 - 9 _______10 ________ 22

Rikand _____________ 14 ___________ 28 - 3 _______ 7 ________ 21

dacogawa ___________11 ___________ 24 - 7 ______ 10 ________ 21

Joe Public ___________11 ___________ 21-10 ______ 10 ________ 21

Gonzo _____________ 19 ___________ no fcst _______ 0 ________ 19

Yan sno ____________ 16 ___________ no fcst _______ 0 ________ 16

BLIZZARD7 _________ 16 ___________ no fcst _______ 0 ________ 16

============================================================

Only three can now win on total points, most of us are eliminated by another forecaster with a higher total and same August forecast, or somebody two or more points ahead and one different on the forecast.

Sryanbruen will win if the outcome is 21-10 (30 points), 22-9 (29), 23-8 (28), 24-7 (27).

200motels will tie with sryanbruen if the outcome is 20-11 (both 29 points) and will win for 19-12 (also 29), 18-13 (28), 17-14 (27) down to 15-16.

waterways will win if the outcome is 25-6 (27 points). (26-5 is no longer a possible outcome)

dasa29 can finish third to 200motels and sryanbruen in second, if the outcome is 17-14 (25 points) or 16-15, 15-16 (all very unlikely now).

JCX BXC can finish tied second with sryanbruen if the outcome is 25-6.
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22-08-2019, 18:01   #65
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Here are some notes on potential scoring, based on what is already known about PRC and estimates for the rest. I think the most likely outcome for IMT is 15.6 (it will probably rebound to 16.0 then perhaps fall off again). MAX could go up a bit from 25.4, MIN seems more likely to go down than stay at 4.6. PRC has to be at least 122% but may not add a lot, maybe 130% at end. SUN looks about even chances of staying either side of current 104%. Bonus is now 15-6 and may finish around 22-9 on that ratio.

Notes are in same order as table of forecasts. Your "max possible score" takes into account points reductions already in place from your lower MAX and PRC, and in some cases the bonus capped by Ulster below 6, but is otherwise not reduced for forecasts different from my estimates.

Pauldry -- max possible score 95 -- fcst min 1.5 -- requires quite warm, rather cloudy, no new max. Has 22-9 for bonus.

Tae laidir -- max possible score 100 -- fcst min 2.3 -- needs 26.3 max -- rest of forecast similar to my estimates, 21-10 for bonus.

Adam240610 -- max possible score 99 -- fcst min 2.0 -- needs 26.0 max -- rather cloudy end would help (90% fcst), 22 - 9 for bonus.

Dacogawa -- max possible score 100 -- fcst min 2.2 -- needs 29.2 max -- very cloudy end would help (85%), 24 - 7 for bonus.

Jpmarn -- max possible score 100 -- fcst min 2.1 -- needs 26.8 max -- needs a bit more rain and sun than most, 21-10 for bonus.

mickger844posts -- max possible score 91 -- fcst min 3.1 -- needs 25.8 max -- near est on sun, has 23-8 for bonus.

M. T. Cranium -- max possible score 99 (98 if max already set) -- fcst min 1.5 -- can incr max 0.1 to 25.5 -- okay on sun, bonus 22 - 9.

Kindred Spirit -- max possible score 93 -- fcst min 2.0 -- needs more sun than most (110% fcst) -- bonus 24 - 7.

Dasa29 -- max possible score 96 (loses 4 on min) -- needs 27.5 max -- sun okay -- 17-14 for bonus (needs Ulster to win 8/10)

Sunflower3 -- max possible score 96 -- needs 26.2 max -- fcst min 2.4 -- requires rather cloudy end of month, bonus 20-11.

Rikand -- max possible score 82 -- fcst min 2.0 -- requires more sun than most (120%) -- bonus 28-3


__ Con Sensus -- max possible score 98 -- needs 26.0 max -- fcst min 2.2 -- bonus 22-9.


Bsal -- max possible score 94 -- fcst min 2.0 -- bonus 22 - 9

DOCARCH -- max possible score 93 -- needs 27.8 max -- fcst min 2.3 -- bonus 26-5.

Artane2002 -- max possible score 96 -- needs 26.5 max -- fcst min 2.5 -- bonus 23-8.

Joe Public -- max possible score 96 -- needs 26.9 max -- fcst min 2.6 -- bonus 21-10.

waterways -- max possible score 88 -- fcst min 2.1 -- bonus 25-6.

Rameire -- max possible score 88 -- fcst min 2.5 -- bonus 22-9.


__ NormaL -- max possible score 92 -- needs 26.5 max -- fcst min 1.0 -- bonus 24-7.


john mac -- max possible score 94 -- needs 27.8 max -- fcst min 2.7 -- bonus 17-14.

JCXBXC -- max possible score 98 -- needs 27.2 max -- fcst min 2.2 -- bonus 25-6.

MrSkinner -- max possible score 97 -- needs 26.1 max -- fcst min 2.8 -- needs rather cloudy end of month (91%) -- bonus 21-10.

200motels -- max possible score 98 -- IMT 13.9 may reduce that by 11+ -- needs max 26.4 -- fcst min 1.4 -- cloudy (88%) -- bonus 20-11.

sryanbruen -- max possible score 93 -- IMT 13.8 may reduce that by 12+ -- fcst min 1.2 -- cloudy (90%) -- bonus 21-10.

________________________________________________________________

superbonus could add 1 or 2 to waterways, 200motels or sryanbruen, or 1 to dasa29 and JCX BXC.

________________________________________________________________

based on my estimates 15.6, 26.5, 2.5, 130, 105, 22-9 the top score would be 91 for tae laidir, with sunflower3 around 89, artane2002 and Joe Public both above 85.

however if my estimates are off you could score as high as your max possible plus superbonus points.
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23-08-2019, 09:53   #66
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All Ireland Final Day 22
Max temperatures
Leinster 23.1 Oak Park
Ulster 19.3 Belfast Aldegrove
Connaught 19.1 Markee Castle

Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 16-6
Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 13-9.

Thanks M.T for all the stats for this month so far with 8 more days still to come.
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24-08-2019, 09:56   #67
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All Ireland Final Day 23
Max temperatures
Leinster 23.4 Phoenix Park
Ulster 21.9 Derry Magilligan
Connaught 22.0 Mt Dillon

Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 17-6
Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 14-9.

Last edited by Jpmarn; 25-08-2019 at 08:41.
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25-08-2019, 08:46   #68
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All Ireland Final Day 24
Max temperatures
Leinster 25.1 Oak Park
Ulster 23.7 Ballyhaise
Connaught 23.4 Mt Dillon

Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 18-6
Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 15-9.

It now looks like the MAX of 25.4 will not be broken given the forecasts for the remaining days of this month.
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26-08-2019, 09:54   #69
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All Ireland Final Day 25
Max temperatures
Leinster 22.3 Oak Park
Ulster 23.8 Portglenone (Belfast International)
Connaught 20.6 Athenry

Scores, Leinster v Ulster 0-1 total 18-7
Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 16-9.

Just pointing the difference of the Max temperature recorded at Shannon Airport on Sunday 25th. It was 18.6 on met.ie and 22.2 on Meteociel. I am inclined to believe met.ie as I live in the Limerick area and didn’t see the thermometer on my car exceeding 20°C.
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26-08-2019, 20:38   #70
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jpmarn View Post
All Ireland Final Day 25
Max temperatures
Leinster 22.3 Oak Park
Ulster 23.8 Portglenone (Belfast International)
Connaught 20.6 Athenry

Scores, Leinster v Ulster 0-1 total 18-7
Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 16-9.

Just pointing the difference of the Max temperature recorded at Shannon Airport on Sunday 25th. It was 18.6 on met.ie and 22.2 on Meteociel. I am inclined to believe met.ie as I live in the Limerick area and didn’t see the thermometer on my car exceeding 20°C.
Looks as though the value from 24th remained in their data base for 25th.

=============

With Ulster winning one more day, waterways and JCX BXC can no longer hit 25-6 so their potential scores drop by one, and waterways can no longer finish first in the total points. Converging on a win for sryanbruen unless 200motels can get Ulster wins for 5/6 or 6/6 of the remaining days.

With the max apparently capped at 25.4, I will post a new set of potential scores with that in mind. Look for that this evening some time.
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26-08-2019, 21:16   #71
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Provisional scoring for August 2019

With MAX looking like it may settle in at 25.4, and not a lot of movement on MIN anticipated, here's an early look at how scoring may unfold. There's no guarantee the MIN will be reduced so dasa29 may do better than shown on that, and the rest of us will then need help from minimum progression.


FORECASTER _________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__ BONUS (L vs U) __ TOTAL

Estimated values ______15.4_25.4_ 3.0_135_105 ____ 23 - 8


mickger844posts _______23 _ 16 _ 19 _ 03 _ 09 ____ 10 __________ 80

M. T. Cranium _________ 23 _ 19 _ 05 _ 10 _ 10 ____ 09 __________ 76

Rameire _____________ 23 _ 11 _ 15 _ 08 _ 10 ____ 09 __________ 76

Bsal _________________24 _ 16 _ 10 _ 08 _ 09 ____ 09 __________ 76

Tae laidir _____________21 _ 11 _ 13 _ 14 _ 08 ____ 08 __________ 75

Kindred Spirit _________ 23 _ 17 _ 10 _ 07 _ 09 ____ 09 __________ 75

MrSkinner ____________21 _ 13 _ 18 _ 07 _ 07 ____ 08 __________ 74


_____ Con Sensus _____ 24 _ 12 _ 12 _ 08 _ 09 ____ 09 __________ 74


Artane2002 ___________25 _ 09 _ 15 _ 07 _ 07 ____ 10 __________ 73

Sunflower3 ___________ 24 _ 12 _ 14 _ 07 _ 08 ____ 07 __________ 72

Pauldry ______________ 20 _ 16 _ 09 _ 10 _ 07 ____ 09 __________ 71

Adam240610 __________21 _ 14 _ 10 _ 10 _ 07 ____ 09 __________ 71

waterways ____________24 _ 14 _ 11 _ 04 _ 09 ____ 08+01 _______ 71

Jpmarn ______________ 23 _ 06 _ 11 _ 13 _ 10 ____ 08 __________ 71

Joe Public ____________ 24 _ 05 _ 16 _ 07 _ 09 ____ 08 __________ 69

Dacogawa ____________ 22 _ 00 _ 12 _ 14 _ 06 ____ 09 __________ 63

Rikand _______________24 _ 16 _ 10 _ 00 _ 07 ____ 05 __________ 62

DOCARCH ____________ 25 _ 00 _ 13 _ 05 _ 09 ____ 07 __________ 59

JCXBXC ______________21 _ 02 _ 12 _ 08 _ 06 ____ 08 __________ 57

john mac _____________21 _ 00 _ 17 _ 04 _ 09 ____ 04 __________ 55

sryanbruen ___________09 _ 13 _ 02 _ 14 _ 07 ____ 08+02 _______ 55


_____ NormaL ________ 22 _ 09 _ 00 _ 03 _ 09 ____ 09 __________ 52


Dasa29 ______________ 24 _ 00 _ 00 _ 12 _ 10 ____ 04 __________ 50

200motels ____________10 _ 10 _ 04 _ 08 _ 07 ____ 07+01 _______ 47

_______________________________________________________________________

The most flexibility on scoring is probably with MIN, so this order could change a bit.
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27-08-2019, 09:58   #72
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All Ireland Final Day 26
Max temperatures
Leinster 21.9 Oak Park
Ulster 20.5 Castlederg Co. Tyrone
Connaught 20.2 Mt. Dillon

Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 19-7
Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 17-9.
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28-08-2019, 09:54   #73
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All Ireland Final Day 27
Max temperatures
Leinster 23.0 Phoenix Park
Ulster 21.3 Belfast Aldegrove
Connaught 17.7 Markee Castle

Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 20-7
Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 18-9.
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29-08-2019, 10:00   #74
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All Ireland Final Day 28
Max temperatures
Leinster 19.9 Phoenix Park
Ulster 19.6 Castlederg Co. Tyrone
Connaught 19.2 Mt. Dillon

Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 21-7
Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 19-9.

Note to myself. Leinster has now reach the threshold score that I given in my entry at the start of the month. I hope Ulster would score all 3 points remaining to have my score down to a Tee. The Leinster v Connacht was kept up out of interest but no involvement of any scoring from me.
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29-08-2019, 17:57   #75
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After four weeks ...

IMT on 15.5, the fourth week averaged 16.0 which is 1.1 above normal. Final value likely to be 15.4.

MAX remains 25.4, MIN stuck on 4.6. Not much chance of these moving now.

PRC is now 156% as the fourth week managed only 73% (quite dry in the southeast). That appears to be where it might finish with a substantial rainfall incoming on Friday night.

SUN is at 102% now with the past week 95% (571/600). It may struggle to stay above 100% with the rather cloudy final three days but the lowest it could finish (even with zero sunshine) is 92%, so 95% looks plausible.

My provisional scoring table is pretty much out the window on those new projections and I will revise them.

The bonus question has reached 21-7 for Leinster and this guarantees sryanbruen will be the all-Ireland champ regardless of how the final three days play out. My earlier estimate of 23-8 seems likely to be off by one (24-7 quite likely).

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 29-08-2019 at 18:02.
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