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13-08-2019, 17:26   #46
M.T. Cranium
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Agree with the scoring for the bonus and secondary contest, but in fact those minimum temperatures were at midnight on their way down to lower values, so far I have seen 4.6 at Claremorris (and 4.7 at Mullingar) as eventual MINs, both Markree and Mountdillon also hit hourly values of 5 C at 0600h and one of them could have gone lower than 4.6, won't know that until tomorrow's report. But at the time they were the MIN for the month to that point in time.
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13-08-2019, 21:26   #47
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Monthly min will be a lot lower by August 24th id say. Some cool charts temperature wise
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14-08-2019, 10:00   #48
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All Ireland Final Day 13
Max temperatures
Leinster 19.3 Oak Park
Ulster 19.9 Co. Tyrone*
Connaught 20.1 Newport

Scores, Leinster v Ulster 0-1 total 9-4
Leinster v Connaught 0-1 total 6-7.

MIN now 4.6°C at Claremorris followed by 4.7°C at Mullingar.

*The temperatures from Northern Ireland is taken from the Meteoceil website and locations are approximate.
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15-08-2019, 08:32   #49
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All Ireland Final Day 14
Max temperatures
Leinster 22.5 Oak Park
Ulster 21.5 Co. Tyrone*
Connaught 22.0 Mt Dillon

Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 10-4
Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 7-7.
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15-08-2019, 16:11   #50
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After two weeks ...

IMT on 15.74, the second week averaged 14.9 which is 0.5 below normal.

MAX ... I thought it had not exceeded 24 yet, but apparently 25.4 at Mountdillon on 2nd ... MIN is 4.6 so far.

PRC is now exactly twice normal (200%) with the second week a soaking wet 259% of normal. This means that only about 5 mm of rain over the grid will ensure a normal outcome by end of month even if a dry spell then began and lasted to end of month. Malin Head and Belmullet have had significantly less rain than the other nine locations, several of which have already passed their August averages.

SUN is still above normal at 101% but week two was rather cloudy at 76% of normal (457/600).

Bonus as tracked by Jpmarn (many thanks) is 10-4 in favour of Leinster, would have been 7-7 had Connacht made it to the final.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 16-08-2019 at 18:58.
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15-08-2019, 18:01   #51
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Was it not 25.4c at the start of August in Mt Dillon?
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15-08-2019, 18:12   #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jpmarn View Post
Just Checking on the location of Mt. Dillon weather station. It was the warmest place in Ireland at 25.4°C.
yup
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16-08-2019, 09:50   #53
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All Ireland Final Day 15
Max temperatures
Leinster 22.2 Oak Park
Ulster 19.5 Co. Tyrone*
Connaught 19.7 Mt Dillon

Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 11-4
Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 8-7.
Just to correct MT's summary of the month so far MAX should read 25.4°C recorded in Mt Dillon station on the 2nd.
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16-08-2019, 18:59   #54
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Thanks, have managed to edit that post with the faulty MAX.
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17-08-2019, 09:55   #55
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All Ireland Final Day 16
Max temperatures
Leinster 22.6 Oak Park
Ulster 21.5 Armagh*
Connaught 20.6 Mt Dillon

Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 12-4
Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 9-7.
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18-08-2019, 08:59   #56
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All Ireland Final Day 17
Max temperatures
Leinster 19.5 Phoenix Park and Oak Park
Ulster 18.7 Co. Tyrone*
Connaught 18.0 Mt Dillon

Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 13-4
Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 10-7.

Last edited by Jpmarn; 19-08-2019 at 09:55.
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19-08-2019, 10:00   #57
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All Ireland Final Day 18
Max temperatures
Leinster 18.7 Phoenix Park and Oak Park
Ulster 18.9 Ballyhaise
Connaught 19.9 Mt Dillon

Scores, Leinster v Ulster 0-1 total 13-5
Leinster v Connaught 0-1 total 10-8.

Last edited by Jpmarn; 20-08-2019 at 01:07.
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20-08-2019, 10:02   #58
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All Ireland Final Day 19
Max temperatures
Leinster 19.4 Oak Park
Ulster 17.4 Belfast International*
Connaught 18.1 Mt Dillon

Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 14-5
Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 11-8.

Looking at some models lately it does look like the present MAX and MIN will be beaten in the next 10 days.

*The temperatures from Northern Ireland is taken from the Meteoceil website and locations are approximate.
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20-08-2019, 15:32   #59
M.T. Cranium
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Those NI locations can be detected by hovering your mouse over each number, but in any case they are Castlederg (Tyrone), Thomastown (Fermanagh), Glenannne (looks to be Armagh), Belfast Aldergrove, Lough Fea and Portglenone northwest of Lough Neagh, Ballypatrick Forest on north coast and Magilligan (Derry).

The next regular update from me is two days away but IMT after 19 days was 15.6 (will oscillate but could finish near this) and PRC is now close to 110% guaranteed (if dry to end of month) so with about 20-30 mm projected on charts would expect that to finish around 130-140 per cent.
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20-08-2019, 16:29   #60
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Tracking the race for All-Ireland forecasting supremacy over the three month bonus contest period ...

Score this month in the temperature "contest" is 14-5 in favour of Leinster.

This table shows you the points totals for June-July, and the maximum score possible for your noted August forecast (this will change as I count down this table to end of month). So far only one August forecast has fallen below a possible perfect outcome (Rikand's 28-3 can still score eight if 26-5 is the result).

To be consistent with the June-July scoring, August will be scored from differentials only, whatever the distribution in scores that provides. By differentials, I mean errors in number of days warmer (for Leinster not the total of two which will always be double that). The exception would now be if the total somehow reaches 19-12 or 18-13 which have no entries, then the August scoring will begin with 10s for whichever side of that zone is closest, and award 9 to the 17-14 pair if it's 19-12 (10 if 18-13), otherwise moving down one point per larger error than 20-11 which would get 9 for 19-12 and 8 for 18-13. Looks to me like 23-8 is about the most likely outcome now anyway. Ulster has some chance in this warmer southeast wind period predicted.

____________________________________________ provisional scores __

FORECASTER _____ June-July total ___ August fcst __ Max score ___ TOTAL

sryanbruen __________ 20 ____________21-10 ______ 10 ________ 30

200motels ___________19 ____________20-11 ______ 10 ________ 29

Tae laidir ____________17 ____________21-10 ______ 10 ________ 27

mickger844posts ______17 ___________ 23 - 8 ______ 10 ________ 27

Bsal ________________17 ____________22 - 9 ______ 10 ________ 27

Adam240610 ________ 17 ____________22 - 9 ______ 10 ________ 27

waterways __________ 17 ____________25 - 6 ______ 10 ________ 27

JPmarn _____________ 17 ___________ 21-10 ______ 10 ________ 27

Artane 2002 _________ 16 ___________ 23 - 8 ______ 10 ________ 26

Pauldry _____________ 16 ___________ 22 - 9 ______ 10 ________ 26

sunflower3 __________ 16 ___________ 20-11 ______ 10 ________ 26

JCX BXC ____________ 16 ___________ 25 - 6 ______ 10 ________ 26

dasa29 _____________ 15 ___________ 17-14 ______ 10 ________ 25

DOCARCH ___________14 ___________ 26 - 5 ______ 10 ________ 24

Mr Skinner __________ 14 ___________ 21-10 ______ 10 ________ 24

M.T. Cranium ________ 14 ___________ 22 - 9 ______ 10 ________ 24

john mac ___________ 14 ___________ 17-14 _______10 ________ 24

Rikand _____________ 14 ___________ 28 - 3 _______ 8 ________ 22

Kindred Spirit ________12 ___________ 24 - 7 _______10 ________ 22

Rameire ____________ 12 ___________ 22 - 9 _______10 ________ 22

dacogawa ___________ 11 ___________ 24 - 7 ______ 10 ________ 21

Joe Public ___________ 11 ___________ 21-10 ______ 10 ________ 21

Gonzo ______________19 ___________ no fcst _______ 0 ________ 19

Yan sno _____________16 ___________ no fcst _______ 0 ________ 16

BLIZZARD7 __________16 ___________ no fcst _______ 0 ________ 16

============================================================

Only three can now win on total points, most of us are eliminated by another forecaster with a higher total and same August forecast, or somebody two or more points ahead and one different on the forecast.

Sryanbruen will win if the outcome is 21-10 (30 points), 22-9 (29), 23-8 (28), 24-7 (27).

200motels will tie with sryanbruen if the outcome is 20-11 (both 29 points) and will win for 19-12 (also 29), 18-13 (28), 17-14 (27) down to 14-17.

waterways will win if the outcome is 25-6 (27 points), or 26-5 (26 points). (27-4 is no longer a possible outcome)

dasa29 can finish third to 200motels and sryanbruen in second, if the outcome is 17-14 (25 points) or 16-15, 15-16, 14-17 (all very unlikely now).
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