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August 2019 Boards weather forecast contest
Comments
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All Ireland Final Day 21
Max temperatures
Leinster 17.0 Johnstown Castle
Ulster 17.7 Castlederg Co. Tyrone
Connaught 19.0 Newport.
Scores, Leinster v Ulster 0-1 total 15-6
Leinster v Connaught 0-1 total 12-9.0 -
After three weeks ...
IMT on 15.4, third week averaged 14.6 which was 0.7 below normal.
MAX remains 25.4 and MIN 4.6.
PRC is still well above average at 182% of normal, the third week average was 165% and this guarantees 122% of normal if the rest of the month is dry.
SUN has managed to get some play time between the rainfalls, with the month at 104% and this past week 110% (659/600).
Will post an update on the bonus scoring situation now that the count has reached 15-6 for Leinster.0 -
Here's an update on the bonus scoring for both August and the entire summer, slight changes have been made to the table posted a few days ago as the new score of 15-6 reduces the maximum possible score for 26-5 and 28-3 forecasts by one. August forecasts in bold require all remaining days to be wins for Leinster.
____________________________________________ provisional scores __
FORECASTER _____ June-July total ___ August fcst __ Max score ___ TOTAL
sryanbruen __________ 20 ____________21-10 ______ 10 ________ 30
200motels ___________19 ____________20-11 ______ 10 ________ 29
Tae laidir ____________17 ____________21-10 ______ 10 ________ 27
mickger844posts ______17 ___________ 23 - 8 ______ 10 ________ 27
Bsal ________________17 ____________22 - 9 ______ 10 ________ 27
Adam240610 ________ 17 ____________22 - 9 ______ 10 ________ 27
waterways ___________17 ___________ 25-6 _______ 10 ________ 27
JPmarn _____________ 17 ___________ 21-10 ______ 10 ________ 27
Artane 2002 _________ 16 ___________ 23 - 8 ______ 10 ________ 26
Pauldry _____________ 16 ___________ 22 - 9 ______ 10 ________ 26
sunflower3 __________ 16 ___________ 20-11 ______ 10 ________ 26
JCX BXC ____________ 16 ___________ 25 - 6 ______ 10 ________ 26
dasa29 _____________ 15 ___________ 17-14 ______ 10 ________ 25
DOCARCH ___________14 ___________ 26 - 5 _______ 9 ________ 24
Mr Skinner __________ 14 ___________ 21-10 ______ 10 ________ 24
M.T. Cranium ________ 14 ___________ 22 - 9 ______ 10 ________ 24
john mac ___________ 14 ___________ 17-14 _______10 ________ 24
Kindred Spirit ________12 ___________ 24 - 7 _______10 ________ 22
Rameire ____________ 12 ___________ 22 - 9 _______10 ________ 22
Rikand _____________ 14 ___________ 28 - 3 _______ 7 ________ 21
dacogawa ___________11 ___________ 24 - 7 ______ 10 ________ 21
Joe Public ___________11 ___________ 21-10 ______ 10 ________ 21
Gonzo _____________ 19 ___________ no fcst _______ 0 ________ 19
Yan sno ____________ 16 ___________ no fcst _______ 0 ________ 16
BLIZZARD7 _________ 16 ___________ no fcst _______ 0 ________ 16
============================================================
Only three can now win on total points, most of us are eliminated by another forecaster with a higher total and same August forecast, or somebody two or more points ahead and one different on the forecast.
Sryanbruen will win if the outcome is 21-10 (30 points), 22-9 (29), 23-8 (28), 24-7 (27).
200motels will tie with sryanbruen if the outcome is 20-11 (both 29 points) and will win for 19-12 (also 29), 18-13 (28), 17-14 (27) down to 15-16.
waterways will win if the outcome is 25-6 (27 points). (26-5 is no longer a possible outcome)
dasa29 can finish third to 200motels and sryanbruen in second, if the outcome is 17-14 (25 points) or 16-15, 15-16 (all very unlikely now).
JCX BXC can finish tied second with sryanbruen if the outcome is 25-6.0 -
Here are some notes on potential scoring, based on what is already known about PRC and estimates for the rest. I think the most likely outcome for IMT is 15.6 (it will probably rebound to 16.0 then perhaps fall off again). MAX could go up a bit from 25.4, MIN seems more likely to go down than stay at 4.6. PRC has to be at least 122% but may not add a lot, maybe 130% at end. SUN looks about even chances of staying either side of current 104%. Bonus is now 15-6 and may finish around 22-9 on that ratio.
Notes are in same order as table of forecasts. Your "max possible score" takes into account points reductions already in place from your lower MAX and PRC, and in some cases the bonus capped by Ulster below 6, but is otherwise not reduced for forecasts different from my estimates.
Pauldry -- max possible score 95 -- fcst min 1.5 -- requires quite warm, rather cloudy, no new max. Has 22-9 for bonus.
Tae laidir -- max possible score 100 -- fcst min 2.3 -- needs 26.3 max -- rest of forecast similar to my estimates, 21-10 for bonus.
Adam240610 -- max possible score 99 -- fcst min 2.0 -- needs 26.0 max -- rather cloudy end would help (90% fcst), 22 - 9 for bonus.
Dacogawa -- max possible score 100 -- fcst min 2.2 -- needs 29.2 max -- very cloudy end would help (85%), 24 - 7 for bonus.
Jpmarn -- max possible score 100 -- fcst min 2.1 -- needs 26.8 max -- needs a bit more rain and sun than most, 21-10 for bonus.
mickger844posts -- max possible score 91 -- fcst min 3.1 -- needs 25.8 max -- near est on sun, has 23-8 for bonus.
M. T. Cranium -- max possible score 99 (98 if max already set) -- fcst min 1.5 -- can incr max 0.1 to 25.5 -- okay on sun, bonus 22 - 9.
Kindred Spirit -- max possible score 93 -- fcst min 2.0 -- needs more sun than most (110% fcst) -- bonus 24 - 7.
Dasa29 -- max possible score 96 (loses 4 on min) -- needs 27.5 max -- sun okay -- 17-14 for bonus (needs Ulster to win 8/10)
Sunflower3 -- max possible score 96 -- needs 26.2 max -- fcst min 2.4 -- requires rather cloudy end of month, bonus 20-11.
Rikand -- max possible score 82 -- fcst min 2.0 -- requires more sun than most (120%) -- bonus 28-3
__ Con Sensus -- max possible score 98 -- needs 26.0 max -- fcst min 2.2 -- bonus 22-9.
Bsal -- max possible score 94 -- fcst min 2.0 -- bonus 22 - 9
DOCARCH -- max possible score 93 -- needs 27.8 max -- fcst min 2.3 -- bonus 26-5.
Artane2002 -- max possible score 96 -- needs 26.5 max -- fcst min 2.5 -- bonus 23-8.
Joe Public -- max possible score 96 -- needs 26.9 max -- fcst min 2.6 -- bonus 21-10.
waterways -- max possible score 88 -- fcst min 2.1 -- bonus 25-6.
Rameire -- max possible score 88 -- fcst min 2.5 -- bonus 22-9.
__ NormaL -- max possible score 92 -- needs 26.5 max -- fcst min 1.0 -- bonus 24-7.
john mac -- max possible score 94 -- needs 27.8 max -- fcst min 2.7 -- bonus 17-14.
JCXBXC -- max possible score 98 -- needs 27.2 max -- fcst min 2.2 -- bonus 25-6.
MrSkinner -- max possible score 97 -- needs 26.1 max -- fcst min 2.8 -- needs rather cloudy end of month (91%) -- bonus 21-10.
200motels -- max possible score 98 -- IMT 13.9 may reduce that by 11+ -- needs max 26.4 -- fcst min 1.4 -- cloudy (88%) -- bonus 20-11.
sryanbruen -- max possible score 93 -- IMT 13.8 may reduce that by 12+ -- fcst min 1.2 -- cloudy (90%) -- bonus 21-10.
________________________________________________________________
superbonus could add 1 or 2 to waterways, 200motels or sryanbruen, or 1 to dasa29 and JCX BXC.
________________________________________________________________
based on my estimates 15.6, 26.5, 2.5, 130, 105, 22-9 the top score would be 91 for tae laidir, with sunflower3 around 89, artane2002 and Joe Public both above 85.
however if my estimates are off you could score as high as your max possible plus superbonus points.0 -
All Ireland Final Day 22
Max temperatures
Leinster 23.1 Oak Park
Ulster 19.3 Belfast Aldegrove
Connaught 19.1 Markee Castle
Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 16-6
Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 13-9.
Thanks M.T for all the stats for this month so far with 8 more days still to come.0 -
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All Ireland Final Day 23
Max temperatures
Leinster 23.4 Phoenix Park
Ulster 21.9 Derry Magilligan
Connaught 22.0 Mt Dillon
Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 17-6
Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 14-9.0 -
All Ireland Final Day 24
Max temperatures
Leinster 25.1 Oak Park
Ulster 23.7 Ballyhaise
Connaught 23.4 Mt Dillon
Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 18-6
Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 15-9.
It now looks like the MAX of 25.4 will not be broken given the forecasts for the remaining days of this month.0 -
All Ireland Final Day 25
Max temperatures
Leinster 22.3 Oak Park
Ulster 23.8 Portglenone (Belfast International)
Connaught 20.6 Athenry
Scores, Leinster v Ulster 0-1 total 18-7
Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 16-9.
Just pointing the difference of the Max temperature recorded at Shannon Airport on Sunday 25th. It was 18.6 on met.ie and 22.2 on Meteociel. I am inclined to believe met.ie as I live in the Limerick area and didn’t see the thermometer on my car exceeding 20°C.0 -
All Ireland Final Day 25
Max temperatures
Leinster 22.3 Oak Park
Ulster 23.8 Portglenone (Belfast International)
Connaught 20.6 Athenry
Scores, Leinster v Ulster 0-1 total 18-7
Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 16-9.
Just pointing the difference of the Max temperature recorded at Shannon Airport on Sunday 25th. It was 18.6 on met.ie and 22.2 on Meteociel. I am inclined to believe met.ie as I live in the Limerick area and didn’t see the thermometer on my car exceeding 20°C.
Looks as though the value from 24th remained in their data base for 25th.
=============
With Ulster winning one more day, waterways and JCX BXC can no longer hit 25-6 so their potential scores drop by one, and waterways can no longer finish first in the total points. Converging on a win for sryanbruen unless 200motels can get Ulster wins for 5/6 or 6/6 of the remaining days.
With the max apparently capped at 25.4, I will post a new set of potential scores with that in mind. Look for that this evening some time.0 -
Provisional scoring for August 2019
With MAX looking like it may settle in at 25.4, and not a lot of movement on MIN anticipated, here's an early look at how scoring may unfold. There's no guarantee the MIN will be reduced so dasa29 may do better than shown on that, and the rest of us will then need help from minimum progression.
FORECASTER _________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__ BONUS (L vs U) __ TOTAL
Estimated values ______15.4_25.4_ 3.0_135_105 ____ 23 - 8
mickger844posts _______23 _ 16 _ 19 _ 03 _ 09 ____ 10 __________ 80
M. T. Cranium _________ 23 _ 19 _ 05 _ 10 _ 10 ____ 09 __________ 76
Rameire _____________ 23 _ 11 _ 15 _ 08 _ 10 ____ 09 __________ 76
Bsal _________________24 _ 16 _ 10 _ 08 _ 09 ____ 09 __________ 76
Tae laidir _____________21 _ 11 _ 13 _ 14 _ 08 ____ 08 __________ 75
Kindred Spirit _________ 23 _ 17 _ 10 _ 07 _ 09 ____ 09 __________ 75
MrSkinner ____________21 _ 13 _ 18 _ 07 _ 07 ____ 08 __________ 74
_____ Con Sensus _____ 24 _ 12 _ 12 _ 08 _ 09 ____ 09 __________ 74
Artane2002 ___________25 _ 09 _ 15 _ 07 _ 07 ____ 10 __________ 73
Sunflower3 ___________ 24 _ 12 _ 14 _ 07 _ 08 ____ 07 __________ 72
Pauldry ______________ 20 _ 16 _ 09 _ 10 _ 07 ____ 09 __________ 71
Adam240610 __________21 _ 14 _ 10 _ 10 _ 07 ____ 09 __________ 71
waterways ____________24 _ 14 _ 11 _ 04 _ 09 ____ 08+01 _______ 71
Jpmarn ______________ 23 _ 06 _ 11 _ 13 _ 10 ____ 08 __________ 71
Joe Public ____________ 24 _ 05 _ 16 _ 07 _ 09 ____ 08 __________ 69
Dacogawa ____________ 22 _ 00 _ 12 _ 14 _ 06 ____ 09 __________ 63
Rikand _______________24 _ 16 _ 10 _ 00 _ 07 ____ 05 __________ 62
DOCARCH ____________ 25 _ 00 _ 13 _ 05 _ 09 ____ 07 __________ 59
JCXBXC ______________21 _ 02 _ 12 _ 08 _ 06 ____ 08 __________ 57
john mac _____________21 _ 00 _ 17 _ 04 _ 09 ____ 04 __________ 55
sryanbruen ___________09 _ 13 _ 02 _ 14 _ 07 ____ 08+02 _______ 55
_____ NormaL ________ 22 _ 09 _ 00 _ 03 _ 09 ____ 09 __________ 52
Dasa29 ______________ 24 _ 00 _ 00 _ 12 _ 10 ____ 04 __________ 50
200motels ____________10 _ 10 _ 04 _ 08 _ 07 ____ 07+01 _______ 47
_______________________________________________________________________
The most flexibility on scoring is probably with MIN, so this order could change a bit.0 -
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All Ireland Final Day 26
Max temperatures
Leinster 21.9 Oak Park
Ulster 20.5 Castlederg Co. Tyrone
Connaught 20.2 Mt. Dillon
Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 19-7
Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 17-9.0 -
All Ireland Final Day 27
Max temperatures
Leinster 23.0 Phoenix Park
Ulster 21.3 Belfast Aldegrove
Connaught 17.7 Markee Castle
Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 20-7
Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 18-9.0 -
All Ireland Final Day 28
Max temperatures
Leinster 19.9 Phoenix Park
Ulster 19.6 Castlederg Co. Tyrone
Connaught 19.2 Mt. Dillon
Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 21-7
Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 19-9.
Note to myself. Leinster has now reach the threshold score that I given in my entry at the start of the month. I hope Ulster would score all 3 points remaining to have my score down to a Tee. The Leinster v Connacht was kept up out of interest but no involvement of any scoring from me.0 -
After four weeks ...
IMT on 15.5, the fourth week averaged 16.0 which is 1.1 above normal. Final value likely to be 15.4.
MAX remains 25.4, MIN stuck on 4.6. Not much chance of these moving now.
PRC is now 156% as the fourth week managed only 73% (quite dry in the southeast). That appears to be where it might finish with a substantial rainfall incoming on Friday night.
SUN is at 102% now with the past week 95% (571/600). It may struggle to stay above 100% with the rather cloudy final three days but the lowest it could finish (even with zero sunshine) is 92%, so 95% looks plausible.
My provisional scoring table is pretty much out the window on those new projections and I will revise them.
The bonus question has reached 21-7 for Leinster and this guarantees sryanbruen will be the all-Ireland champ regardless of how the final three days play out. My earlier estimate of 23-8 seems likely to be off by one (24-7 quite likely).0 -
Updated provisional scoring for August 2019
FORECASTER _________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__ BONUS (L vs U) __ TOTAL
Estimated values ______15.4_25.4_ 4.6_150_095 ___ 24 - 7
mickger844posts ______ 23 _ 16 _ 17*_ 01*_ 09 ____ 09 __________ 75
Tae laidir _____________21 _ 11 _ 12*_ 12*_ 10 ____ 07 __________ 73
Bsal _________________24 _ 16 _ 09*_ 06*_ 09 ____ 08 __________ 72
Kindred Spirit _________ 23 _ 17 _ 09*_ 05*_ 07 ____ 10 __________ 71
MrSkinner ____________ 21 _ 13 _ 16*_ 05*_ 09 ____ 07 __________ 71
Artane2002 ___________25 _ 09 _ 14*_ 05*_ 09 ____ 09 __________ 71
Sunflower3 ___________ 24 _ 12 _ 13*_ 05*_ 10 ____ 06 __________ 70
Rameire _____________ 23 _ 11 _ 14*_ 06*_ 08 ____ 08 __________ 70
_____ Con Sensus _____ 24 _ 12 _ 11*_ 06*_ 09 ____ 08 __________ 70
M. T. Cranium _________23 _ 19 _ 03*_ 08*_ 08 ____ 08 __________ 69
Adam240610 __________21 _ 14 _ 09*_ 08*_ 09 ____ 08 __________ 69
waterways ____________24 _ 14 _ 10*_ 02*_ 09 ____ 09+01 _______ 69
Pauldry ______________ 20 _ 16 _ 07*_ 08*_ 09 ____ 08 __________ 68
Jpmarn ______________ 23 _ 06 _ 10*_ 14*_ 08 ____ 07 __________ 68
Joe Public ____________ 24 _ 05 _ 15*_ 05*_ 09 ____ 07 __________ 65
Dasa29 ______________ 24 _ 00 _ 20*_ 10*_ 08 ____ 03 __________ 65
Dacogawa ____________ 22 _ 00 _ 11*_ 13*_ 08 ____ 10 __________ 64
Rikand _______________24 _ 16 _ 09*_ 00 __05 ____ 06 __________ 60
DOCARCH ____________ 25 _ 00 _ 12*_ 03*_ 09 ____ 08 __________ 57
JCXBXC ______________21 _ 02 _ 11*_ 06*_ 08 ____ 09 __________ 57
sryanbruen ___________09 _ 13 _ 01*_ 12*_ 09 ____ 07+02 _______ 53
_____ NormaL ________ 22 _ 09 _ 00 _ 01*_ 09 ____ 10 ___________51
john mac _____________21 _ 00 _ 15*_ 02*_ 09 ____ 03 __________ 50
200motels ____________10 _ 10 _ 02*_ 06*_ 09 ____ 06+01 _______ 44
* scoring from minimum progression with fairness jog applied to MIN (20, 17 etc ) ... most scores have remained similar to earlier values as they had been scored off an extreme forecast anyway. ... scoring is generally quite tightly clustered ... final revisions on 3rd September.
===================================================================
(actual forecasts)
FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ BONUS (L vs U)
Pauldry ______________ 15.9 _ 25.0 _ 1.9 _ 120 _ 090 ____ 22 - 9
Tae laidir _____________ 15.8 _ 26.3 _ 2.3 _ 131 _ 097 ____ 21-10
Adam240610 __________15.8 _ 26.0 _ 2.0 _ 120 _ 090 ____ 22 - 9
Dacogawa ____________ 15.7 _ 29.2 _ 2.2 _ 133 _ 085 ____ 24 - 7
Jpmarn ______________ 15.6 _ 26.8 _ 2.1 _ 140 _ 105 ____ 21-10
mickger844posts _______15.6 _ 25.8 _ 3.1 _ 100 _ 098 ____ 23 - 8
M. T. Cranium _________ 15.6 _ 25.5 _ 1.5 _ 120 _ 105 ____ 22 - 9
Kindred Spirit _________ 15.6 _ 25.1 _ 2.0 _ 110 _ 110 ____ 24 - 7
Dasa29 ______________ 15.5 _ 27.5 _ 5.0 _ 125 _ 105 ____ 17-14
Sunflower3 ___________ 15.5 _ 26.2 _ 2.4 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 20-11
Rikand _______________15.5 _ 25.0 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 28 - 3
_____ Con Sensus _____ 15.5 _ 26.2 _ 2.2 _ 115 _ 098 ____ 22 - 9
Bsal _________________15.5 _ 25.0 _ 2.0 _ 115 _ 100 ____ 22 - 9
DOCARCH ____________ 15.4 _ 27.8 _ 2.3 _ 106 _ 098 ____ 26 - 5
Artane2002 ___________ 15.4 _ 26.5 _ 2.5 _ 110 _ 090 ____ 23 - 8
Joe Public _____________15.3 _ 26.9 _ 2.6 _ 111 _ 099 ____ 21-10
waterways ____________15.3 _ 24.8 _ 2.1 _ 103 _ 098 ____ 25 - 6
Rameire _____________ 15.2 _ 24.5 _ 2.5 _ 115 _ 105 ____ 22 - 9
_____ NormaL ________ 15.1 _ 26.5 _ 1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 24 - 7
john mac _____________15.0 _ 27.8 _ 2.7 _ 103 _ 102 ____ 17-14
JCXBXC ______________ 15.0 _ 27.2 _ 2.2 _ 115 _ 085 ____ 25 - 6
MrSkinner ____________ 15.0 _ 26.1 _ 2.8 _ 112 _ 091 ____ 21-10
200motels ____________13.9 _ 26.4 _ 1.4 _ 115 _ 088 ____ 20-11
sryanbruen ___________ 13.8 _ 24.7 _ 1.2 _ 130 _ 090 ____ 21-10
_______________________________________________________________________0 -
All Ireland Final Day 29
Max temperatures
Leinster 21.3 Park
Ulster 19.8 Castlederg Co. Tyrone
Connaught 18.7 Markee castle.
Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 22-7
Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 20-9.
There is missing data from 3 stations on yesterday's weather on met.ie at the time of posting if necessary this post maybe edited if the now missing data makes a difference.0 -
Earlier this month I posted some provisional scores for the summer-long bonus rounds to determine an all-Ireland temperature forecast champion. Based on the count of 22-7 to 29th and apparently another win for Leinster today, this can only finish 24-7 or 23-8 for August. Scores for 24-7 are shown below (23-8 in brackets).
____________________________________________ provisional scores 24-7 __
FORECASTER _____ June-July total ___ August fcst __ Aug score ___ TOTAL (if 23-8)
sryanbruen __________ 20 ____________21-10 ______ 7 (8) ______ 27 (28)
200motels ___________19 ____________20-11 ______ 6 (7) ______ 26 (27)
mickger844posts ______17 ___________ 23 - 8 ______ 9 (10) _____ 26 (27)
waterways __________ 17 ____________25 - 6 ______ 9 (8) ______ 26 (25)
Bsal ________________17 ____________22 - 9 ______ 8 (9) ______ 25 (26)
Adam240610 ________ 17 ____________22 - 9 ______ 8 (9) ______ 25 (26)
Artane 2002 _________ 16 ___________ 23 - 8 ______ 9 (10) _____ 25 (26)
JCX BXC ____________ 16 ___________ 25 - 6 ______ 9 (8) ______ 25 (24)
Tae laidir ____________17 ___________ 21-10 ______ 7 (8) ______ 24 (25)
JPmarn _____________ 17 ___________ 21-10 ______ 7 (8) ______ 24 (25)
Pauldry _____________ 16 ___________ 22 - 9 ______ 8 (9) ______ 24 (25)
sunflower3 __________ 16 ___________ 20-11 ______ 6 (7) ______ 22 (23)
DOCARCH ___________14 ___________ 26 - 5 ______ 8 (7) ______ 22 (21)
Kindred Spirit ________12 ___________ 24 - 7 ______10 (9) ______ 22 (21)
M.T. Cranium ________ 14 ___________ 22 - 9 ______ 8 (9)______ 22 (23)
Mr Skinner __________ 14 ___________ 21-10 ______ 7 (8) ______ 21 (22)
dacogawa ___________ 11 ___________24 - 7 ______ 10 (9) _____ 21 (20)
Rikand _____________ 14 ___________ 28 - 3 ______ 6 (5) ______ 20 (19)
Rameire ____________ 12 ___________ 22 - 9 ______ 8 (9) ______ 20 (21)
dasa29 _____________ 15 ___________ 17-14 ______ 3 (4) ______ 18 (19)
john mac ___________ 14 ___________ 17-14 ______ 3 (4) ______ 17 (18)
Joe Public ___________ 11 ___________ 21-10 ______ 6 (7) ______ 17 (18)
Gonzo ______________19 ___________ no fcst _______ 0 ________ 19
Yan sno _____________16 ___________ no fcst _______ 0 ________ 16
BLIZZARD7 __________16 ___________ no fcst _______ 0 ________ 16
===============================================================================
This may add a few 1 pt superbonus awards to the August scoring.0 -
All Ireland Final Day 30
Max temperatures
Leinster 21.0 Phoenix Park which was also yesterday.
Ulster 18.5 Ballypatrick Forest Co. Antrim.
Connaught 17.7 Markee castle.
Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 23-7
Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 21-9.
Some Dominant stations winning points for their provinces. Leinster Phoenix Park and Oak Park. Connacht Mt Dillon and Markee Castle. Ulster Castlederg.0 -
Thank you JPMARN for all your early morning work.
Much appreciated.0 -
This is my last posting to this thread. I appreciate all the thanks. I like researching the results and presenting it to you. At least I can relax on next months contest. All I have to do is to watch out for high wind gusts.
All Ireland Final Day 31
Max temperatures
Leinster 18.6 Phoenix Park
Ulster 16.6 Castlederg, Co. Tyrone
Connaught 17.3 Mt Dillon and Athenry
Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 24-7
Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 22-9.
Subject to correction as data from Belmullet is missing at the time of posting but it is very unlikely that it would make a difference.
Just to comment that Leinster was sweeping up all the points on the last 10 days or so of the month due to a predominant westerly flow.0 -
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This is my last posting to this thread. I appreciate all the thanks. I like researching the results and presenting it to you. At least I can relax on next months contest. All I have to do is to watch out for high wind gusts.
Thank you very much for all the time you spent for researching the results.
It would be great to get the max wind gusts of every day presented.
How about having a wind contest between regions in November?0 -
Yes, thanks for keeping us updated on the temperatures, JPmarn.
The IMT actually finished on 15.5, if you had that or warmer, you'll gain one point on the preliminary scoring, 15.4 and cooler will lose one.
I will have to wait for Monthly Summary to get precise PRC and SUN finals, as Belmullet has missing data on 31st. With Belmullet estimated to be 120% for PRC, it comes to 170% for the average. SUN looks closer to 95 than 100, but will wait and see on that.
Never saw any lows to shift MIN away from 4.6, and MAX is probably 25.4.
Bonus finished 24-7 as expected.
Unless Monday is a holiday there the MS should be available on Tuesday 3rd. Monday is a holiday here if that matters (being retired, not really).0 -
Confirmed scoring for August 2019
Final values have been confirmed now, slight changes to scoring.
IMT was 15.5 C. MAX 25.4 and MIN 4.6 confirmed by MS. PRC nailed down at 163% now that Belmullet has final data.
SUN turned up exactly normal -- the MS says (correctly) that most places were above normal but our six-station grid was heavily influenced by the lower value at Valentia. The average daily amount per 1981-2010 normals is 4.73 hours at the six stations, and they totalled 878 hours which is 146.3 per location, and divided by 31, 4.72 hours, so it rounds out to exactly normal.
The bonus question was a decisive 24-7 win for Leinster.
So here's the slightly amended version of scoring for the month, with the forecasts shown below the scoring table.
ORECASTER _________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__ BONUS (L vs U) __ TOTAL
Confirmed values _____15.5_25.4_ 4.6_163_100 ___ 24 - 7
mickger844posts ______ 24 _ 16 _ 17*_ 01*_ 10 ____ 09+01 _______ 78
Bsal _________________25 _ 16 _ 09*_ 06*_ 10 ____ 08 __________ 74
Tae laidir _____________22 _ 11 _ 12*_ 12*_ 09 ____ 07 __________ 73
Kindred Spirit _________ 24 _ 17 _ 09*_ 05*_ 08 ____ 10 __________ 73
_____ Con Sensus _____ 25 _ 12 _ 11*_ 06*_ 10 ____ 08 __________ 72
M. T. Cranium _________24 _ 19 _ 03*_ 08*_ 09 ____ 08 __________ 71
Sunflower3 ___________ 25 _ 12 _ 13*_ 05*_ 09 ____ 06 __________ 70
Rameire _____________ 22 _ 11 _ 14*_ 06*_ 09 ____ 08 __________ 70
Jpmarn ______________ 24 _ 06 _ 10*_ 14*_ 09 ____ 07 __________ 70
MrSkinner ____________ 20 _ 13 _ 16*_ 05*_ 08 ____ 07 __________ 69
Artane2002 ___________24 _ 09 _ 14*_ 05*_ 08 ____ 09 __________ 69
Adam240610 __________22 _ 14 _ 09*_ 08*_ 08 ____ 08 __________ 69
waterways ____________25 _ 14 _ 10*_ 02*_ 08 ____ 09+01 _______ 69
Pauldry ______________ 21 _ 16 _ 07*_ 08*_ 08 ____ 08 __________ 68
Dasa29 ______________ 25 _ 00 _ 20*_ 10*_ 09 ____ 03 __________ 67
Joe Public ____________ 23 _ 05 _ 15*_ 05*_ 10 ____ 07 __________ 65
Dacogawa ____________ 23 _ 00 _ 11*_ 13*_ 07 ____ 10 __________ 64
Rikand _______________25 _ 16 _ 09*_ 00 __06 ____ 06 __________ 62
DOCARCH ____________ 24 _ 00 _ 12*_ 03*_ 10 ____ 08 __________ 57
JCXBXC ______________20 _ 02 _ 11*_ 06*_ 07 ____ 09 __________ 55
sryanbruen ___________08 _ 13 _ 01*_ 12*_ 08 ____ 07+02 _______ 51
_____ NormaL ________ 21 _ 09 _ 00 _ 01*_ 10 ____ 10 ___________51
john mac _____________20 _ 00 _ 15*_ 02*_ 10 ____ 03 __________ 50
200motels ____________09 _ 10 _ 02*_ 06*_ 08 ____ 06+01 _______ 42
* scoring from minimum progression with fairness jog applied to MIN (20, 17 etc ) ... most scores have remained similar to earlier values as they had been scored off an extreme forecast anyway. ... scoring is generally quite tightly clustered ... final revisions on 3rd September.
===================================================================
(actual forecasts)
FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ BONUS (L vs U)
Pauldry ______________ 15.9 _ 25.0 _ 1.9 _ 120 _ 090 ____ 22 - 9
Tae laidir _____________ 15.8 _ 26.3 _ 2.3 _ 131 _ 097 ____ 21-10
Adam240610 __________15.8 _ 26.0 _ 2.0 _ 120 _ 090 ____ 22 - 9
Dacogawa ____________ 15.7 _ 29.2 _ 2.2 _ 133 _ 085 ____ 24 - 7
Jpmarn ______________ 15.6 _ 26.8 _ 2.1 _ 140 _ 105 ____ 21-10
mickger844posts _______15.6 _ 25.8 _ 3.1 _ 100 _ 098 ____ 23 - 8
M. T. Cranium _________ 15.6 _ 25.5 _ 1.5 _ 120 _ 105 ____ 22 - 9
Kindred Spirit _________ 15.6 _ 25.1 _ 2.0 _ 110 _ 110 ____ 24 - 7
Dasa29 ______________ 15.5 _ 27.5 _ 5.0 _ 125 _ 105 ____ 17-14
Sunflower3 ___________ 15.5 _ 26.2 _ 2.4 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 20-11
Rikand _______________15.5 _ 25.0 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 28 - 3
_____ Con Sensus _____ 15.5 _ 26.2 _ 2.2 _ 115 _ 098 ____ 22 - 9
Bsal _________________15.5 _ 25.0 _ 2.0 _ 115 _ 100 ____ 22 - 9
DOCARCH ____________ 15.4 _ 27.8 _ 2.3 _ 106 _ 098 ____ 26 - 5
Artane2002 ___________ 15.4 _ 26.5 _ 2.5 _ 110 _ 090 ____ 23 - 8
Joe Public _____________15.3 _ 26.9 _ 2.6 _ 111 _ 099 ____ 21-10
waterways ____________15.3 _ 24.8 _ 2.1 _ 103 _ 098 ____ 25 - 6
Rameire _____________ 15.2 _ 24.5 _ 2.5 _ 115 _ 105 ____ 22 - 9
_____ NormaL ________ 15.1 _ 26.5 _ 1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 24 - 7
john mac _____________15.0 _ 27.8 _ 2.7 _ 103 _ 102 ____ 17-14
JCXBXC ______________ 15.0 _ 27.2 _ 2.2 _ 115 _ 085 ____ 25 - 6
MrSkinner ____________ 15.0 _ 26.1 _ 2.8 _ 112 _ 091 ____ 21-10
200motels ____________13.9 _ 26.4 _ 1.4 _ 115 _ 088 ____ 20-11
sryanbruen ___________ 13.8 _ 24.7 _ 1.2 _ 130 _ 090 ____ 21-10
_______________________________________________________________________
Congrats to mickger844posts for leading the way in August, with Bsal, tae laidir and Kindred Spirit also managing to stay ahead of Con Sensus. It is now on to the annual scoring update which may appear fairly late or even tomorrow, as we have company to entertain at the Craniatorium, and it's a lovely sunny day here. There will also eventually be an update of the four seasons scoring with the summer totals now available.0 -
Updated annual scoring for 2019 (January to August)
(order is now best 6/8, last month's rank 5/7 in brackets)
__ (rank for total score shown in brackets after total score.)
_(rank) _ best 5/7 _ FORECASTER ______ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug __ 2019 TOTAL
_ 01 (01) __ 452 __ Tae laidir _________ 70 __ 67 __ 83 __ 80 __ 58 __ 64 __ 83 __ 73 __ 578 (1)
_ 02 (05) __ 422 __ mickger844posts ___ 65 __ 47 __ 68 __ 33 __ 65 __ 69 __ 77 __ 78 __ 502 (5)
_ 03 (t02)__ 420 __ Sunflower3 ________77 __ 67 __ 67 __ 52 __ 60 __ 58 __ 79 __ 70 __ 530 (2)
_ 04 (t02)__ 419 __ waterways ________ 75 __ 19 __ 63 __ 70 __ 56 __ 84 __ 58 __ 69 __ 494 (7)
_ 05 (06) __ 411 __ Artane2002 _______ 46 __ 60 __ 48 __ 52 __ 66 __ 73 __ 91 __ 69 __ 505 (t3)
_(06)(10) __ 403 __ Con Sensus________61 __ 57 __ 72 __ 53 __ 57 __ 67 __ 74 __ 72 __ 513 (3)
_ 06 (12) __ 401 __ Bsal ______________47 __ 58 __ 77 __ 45 __ 56 __ 59 __ 77 __ 74 __ 493 (8)
_ 07 (04) __ 398 __ sryanbruen ________41 __ 42 __ 56 __ 53 __ 86 __ 70 __ 82 __ 51 __ 481 (11)
_ 08 (t10)__ 397 __ MrSkinner _________70 __ 52 __ 50 __ 64 __ 55 __ 64 __ 75 __ 69 __ 499 (6)
_t09 (07) __ 394 __ DOCARCH _________63 __ 68 __ 63 __ 48 __ 67 __ 49 __ 76 __ 57 __ 491 (9)
_t09 (13) __ 394 __ Adam240610 ______ 63 __ 65 __ 59 __ 66 __ 59 __ 52 __ 72 __ 69 __ 505 (t3)
_ 11 (15) __ 390 __ Kindred Spirit ______ 58 __ 62 __ 77 __ 44 __ 49 __ 20 __ 71 __ 73 __ 454 (21)
_t12 (08) __ 386 __ john mac _________ 49 __ 61 __ 63 __ 67 __ 39 __ 83 __ 62 __ 50 __ 474 (t13)
_t12 (14) __ 386 __ pauldry ___________55 __ 62 __ 60 __ 51 __ 53 __ 56 __ 85 __ 68 __ 490 (10)
_ 14 (t10)__ 383 __ JCX BXC __________ 65 __ 53 __ 66 __ 38 __ 66 __ 65 __ 66 __ 55 __ 474 (t13)
_t15 (09) __ 382 __ 200motels ________ 48 __ 68 __ 62 __ 60 __ 66 __ 49 __ 77 __ 42 __ 472 (15)
_t15 (17) __ 382 __ Rameire __________ 56 __ 77 __ 64 __ 48 __ 61 __ 48 __ 54 __ 70 __ 478 (12)
_ 17 (16) __ 380 __ dasa29 ___________ 48 __ 46 __ 85 __ 45 __ 62 __ 53 __ 65 __ 67 __ 471 (16)
_ 18 (19) __ 377 __ Jpmarn ___________69 __ 43 __ 60 __ 62 __ 58 __ 58 __ 50 __ 70 __ 470 (t17)
_ 19 (21) __ 376 __ M.T. Cranium ______ 45 __ 54 __ 59 __ 45 __ 57 __ 66 __ 69 __ 71 __ 466 (19)
_ 20 (18) __ 375 __ Dacogawa ________ 41 __ 49 __ 71 __ 60 __ 41 __ 70 __ 61 __ 64 __ 457 (20)
_ 21 (20) __ 368 __ Rikand ___________ 62 __ 59 __ 54 __ 56 __ 48 __ 64 __ 65 __ 62 __ 470 (t17)
_ 22 (22) __ 366 __ Joe Public _________ 62 __ 24 __ 44 __ 52 __ 60 __ 71 __ 56 __ 65 __ 434 (22)
_(23)(19) __361 __ NormaL __________ 49 __ 60 __ 58 __ 48 __ 58 __ 57 __ 77 __ 51 __ 458 ( 17)
_ 23 (24) __ 226 __ BLIZZARD7 ________18 __ --- __ 33 __ 55 __ 32 __ 49 __ 57 __ --- __ 244 (24)
_ --- (23) __ 275 __ YanSno ___________ 62 __ --- __ --- __ 44 __ 58 __ 38 __ 73 __ --- __ 275 (23)
_ too few ________ Gonzo _____________--- __ ---__ --- __ --- __ --- __ 64 __ 70 __ --- __ 134 (25)
_ too few ________ sdanseo ___________ 45 __ 36 __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- ___ 81
_ too few ________ bazlers ____________ --- __ ---__ 50 __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- ___ 50
_ too few ________ Tazio _____________ --- __ 44 __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- ___ 44
_ too few ________ derekon ___________ 39 __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- ___ 39
_________________________________________________________________________
Managed to get this finished but not totally q.c. yet, looks as though Tae laidir holds on to a comfortable lead but the scoring is quite tight through the middle of the pack. Possible revisions later, and four seasons tonight or tomorrow.0 -
All the normal people are down near the bottom 0
-
Four seasons contest update -- Summer 2019
Here are the summer scoring totals and the points awarded towards the four seasons contest.
FORECASTER ______ Summer total score __ points
Artane2002 __________ 233 ____________ 10
mickger844posts ______ 224 _____________ 7
Tae laidir ____________ 220 _____________ 6
___ Con Sensus ______ 213 _____________ (5)
waterways ___________ 211 _____________ 5
Bsal ________________ 210 _____________ 4
Pauldry ______________209 _____________ 3
MrSkinner ___________ 208 ______________2
Sunflower3 ___________207 _____________ 1
M.T. Cranium _________206 _____________ 1
sryanbruen __________ 203 _____________ 1
John mac ____________195 _____________ --
dacogawa ___________ 195 _____________ --
rest of totals:
(Adam 193, Joe 192, JCX 186, dasa 185, Norm 185, DOC 182, JPm 178, Ram 172, motels 168, KS 164, rest had 2/3 and were lower)
==================================================
TOTAL POINTS for winter, spring and summer portions of the Four Seasons contest
Four seasons points totals for winter and spring (2018-19 contest year)
FORECASTER __________ Winter ___ Spring ____ Summer ____ TOTAL to date
Tae laidir ______________ 10 _______ 10 ________ 6 _________ 26
Adam240610 ____________7 _________3 ________ 0 _________ 10
waterways ______________0 _________5 ________ 5 _________ 10
Artane2002 _____________ 0 ________ 0 ________10 _________10
___ Con Sensus _________ 2 _________ 2 ________ 5 __________9
sryanbruen _____________ 0 _________7 ________ 1 __________ 8
pauldry ________________ 5 _________0 ________ 3 __________ 8
mickger844posts _________1 _________0 ________ 7 __________ 8
DOCARCH ______________ 6 _________1 ________ 0 __________ 7
dasa29 _________________0 _________6 ________ 0 __________ 6
MrSkinner ______________ 4 _________0 ________ 2 __________ 6
bsal ___________________ 1 ________ 1 ________ 4 __________ 6
200motels ______________ 0 ________ 4 ________ 0 __________ 4
Jpmarn ________________ 2 _________2 ________ 0 __________ 4
Kindred Spirit ___________ 3 _________0 ________ 0 __________ 3
Sunflower3 _____________ 1 _________1 ________ 1 __________ 3
M.T. Cranium ____________0 _________0 ________ 1 __________ 1
________________________________________________________________
Tae laidir has an insurmountable lead now with just the autumn points to come, the battle is on for second however.0 -
Joe Public wrote: »All the normal people are down near the bottom
Therefore, it follows that all the abnormal people are up near the top!
0
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