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29-07-2019, 15:55   #1
M.T. Cranium
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August 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for August, 2019. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 15.1 deg C.

2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during August.

3. Predict the MIN temperature during August (see 2 above for overview).

4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during August.

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during August.

6. BONUS -- Continuing the Battle of the Provinces, read carefully ... this month it will be Leinster vs the winner of Connacht vs Ulster. It's more likely to be Connacht but if you want to enter before we know the result, just give answers for either opponent. This final round, we will use the full line-up of stations for each province. If Connacht wins that means Mountdillon, Newport, Belmullet, Claremorris, Newport, Mace Head and Knock (probably staying in the dressing room) get to participate, and so do Mullingar, Dunsany, Phoenix Park, Dublin, Oak Park, and Johnstown Castle. (If it's Ulster I will probably allow in the NI stations).

I think the "normal" value for Leinster vs Connacht in August might be about 17-14, for Leinster vs Ulster more like 24-7. But if you qualify, you get to play in the finals. In any case, your score is determined by how close you come to getting the spread right, will anyone go 31-0? Don't forget, August has 31 days. Somebody has to win, no extra time on 1st of September.

Bonus points earned in the three monthly rounds will be totalled up at the end of August and the winning forecaster will get two superbonus points then, with second place earning one.

Watch for announcements about who wins to face Leinster, it was 14-14 after the 28th. If either wins both today and tomorrow, then we know for sure by Wednesday morning, if it goes 1-1 then we have to wait on it.

Deadline will be extended this one time back to the old 1500h on the 1st (Thursday) to allow some time for dealing with this more complex bonus situation. The late penalties will run at double the usual pace to catch up to their usual impact by 0300h Friday. From there they will remain the same as usual.

Good luck !!

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 29-07-2019 at 15:59.
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29-07-2019, 16:20   #2
sryanbruen
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sryanbruen ______ 13.8 _ 24.7 _ 1.2 _ 130 _ 90 ____ 16-15 (Leinster-Connacht), 21-10 (Leinster-Ulster)

Last edited by sryanbruen; 31-07-2019 at 11:34.
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31-07-2019, 09:39   #3
waterways
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waterways ______ 15.3 _ 24.8 _ 2.1 _ 103 _ 98 ____ 19-12 (Leinster-Connaught), 25-6 (Leinster-Ulster)
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31-07-2019, 19:33   #4
mickger844posts
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mickger844posts ______ 15.6_ 25.8 _ 3.1 _ 100_ 98 ____ 17-14(Leinster-Connaught), 23-8 (Leinster-Ulster)
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31-07-2019, 20:07   #5
M.T. Cranium
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About 90% sure now that Ulster has pulled off an upset win today. Keep posting both possibilities though, and note that the contest deadline is held back to 1500h on Thursday 1st to give a bit of extra time to work through this ... will absolutely confirm Ulster is the opponent for Leinster by 0900h if you want to wait for that.

As mentioned in the intro post, Ulster will get to use the Northern Ireland stations vs all of the Leinster stations.

The link that I will use to determine maxima in NI (along with Ballyhaise, Finner and Malin Head) is here:

http://www.meteociel.fr/observations....php?region=uk

This gives a preliminary set of numbers after 18z (1900h) which you can see for today's readings already. Then there's a final version posted after 06z (0700h) but at this time of year, those won't change very often if at all. In the winter they could with more air mass control of temperatures.

So we're going to follow the golf model here and ignore the border on this one occasion. I still think Leinster will be favoured heavily but strong southeast flow patterns could favour Ulster.

Here's my prediction anyway, assuming it is Ulster ...

15.6 __ 25.5 __ 1.5 __ 120 __ 105 ____ 22-9 (L vs U) or 18-13 (L vs C).
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31-07-2019, 21:10   #6
John mac
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john mac ______ 15.0 _ 27.8 _ 2.7 _ 103 _ 102 ____ 17-14 (Leinster-Connaught), 17-14 (Leinster-Ulster)
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31-07-2019, 21:26   #7
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31-07-2019, 21:38   #8
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31-07-2019, 21:40   #9
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31-07-2019, 22:34   #10
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200motels-------13.9 _ 26.4 _ 1.4 _ 115 _ 88 ____ 17-15 (Leinster-Connacht) 20-11 (Leinster-Ulster)
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31-07-2019, 22:48   #11
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31-07-2019, 22:50   #12
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Tae laidir ______ 15.8 _ 26.3 _ 2.3 _ 131 _ 97 _ 21-10 (L v U)

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31-07-2019, 23:16   #13
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01-08-2019, 00:33   #14
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01-08-2019, 02:44   #15
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