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31-08-2019, 07:21   #46
BumperD
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Originally Posted by Meteorite58 View Post
Getting into Peak Season and waves starting to appear on the W coast of Africa which the ECM is picking up as potential future Tropical Storms or Hurricanes and long long way off but where will the remnants of Dorian end up. Could run up along the Western Seaboard of the US with the remains of it coming across towards us steered by the Jet but that is probably for the FI thread.



I live in the area for these impacts where can I get those charts on top showing the verde activity
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31-08-2019, 10:31   #47
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I live in the area for these impacts where can I get those charts on top showing the verde activity
Loads of resources here for you to go through.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/



https://meteologix.com/ie

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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31-08-2019, 17:33   #48
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[QUOTE=Meteorite58;111131832]Loads of resources here for you to go through.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/


Thats the one thank you sir
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01-09-2019, 00:35   #49
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Overall this year, global tropical stats are running well below average. The North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is about 35% down, as are Named Storm and Hurricane Days. With the season peak in the next week or two, we'll see if it can be backloaded to make up for lost ground.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

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02-09-2019, 16:44   #50
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More potentials to monitor. NHC
Quote:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dorian, located over Grand Bahama Island.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
system located about 300 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands
continues to show signs of organization. A tropical depression is
expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves
generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible over the Cabo Verde Islands
today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf of
Mexico is producing a wide area of showers and thunderstorms. This
system has become better organized since yesterday, and a tropical
depression could form during the next few days while the low moves
slowly westward across the south-central and southwestern Gulf of
Mexico toward the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

3. A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Bermuda. Although the associated showers and
thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization, the system
does not have a well-defined surface center. Gradual development of
this system is possible during the next few days while the
disturbance moves slowly northward or north-northwestward. Interests
in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

4. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days.
Some gradual development of this disturbance will be possible late
this week or over the weekend while it moves westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky
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03-09-2019, 22:23   #51
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Tropical Storm Fernando has formed in the western Gulf and will move westwards into Mexico later tomorrow as a weak storm of around 45 knots. Rain is the main threat.

Tropical Depression 8 has also formed near Cape Verde and will move northwestwards over the next few days. Cool waters will limit its development, but further out the uncertainty is high.
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04-09-2019, 17:26   #52
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle has formed from TD 8 and will move northwestwards over the mid-Atlantic over the next 5 day, staying a TS.
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06-09-2019, 18:59   #53
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Gabrielle is now expected to briefly attain hurricane status before heading towards our neck of the woods. NHC come currently indicates that it will become post-tropical well before it gets close, but has the potential to hit us, track very close to our Northern coast, or pass well to our North depending on how it plays out. I think after Dorian we’re all aware not to assume anything this far out

I haven’t had a chance to look at any model runs yet today, but what do ye make of this?

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08-09-2019, 09:17   #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MJohnston View Post
There's a separate hurricane season thread that might be more appropriate
Thanks for the tip. I shall henceforth post in the more appropriately named '2019 Atlantic Hurricane Thread' instead...

ECMWF meteogram for Tokyo. Gust speeds of up 100 knots projected for the early morning period with 24hr rainfall totals over 120mm.



Worst impacts of the storm forecast to hit ares further south from Tokyo.


6hr Sat loop from JMA up to 9.10z (large file)


Last edited by Oneiric 3; 08-09-2019 at 09:29.
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08-09-2019, 10:42   #55
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Latest



Latest wind observations

https://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas/206.html?elementCode=1

TAF for Haneda Airport in Tokyo Bay. 60 gust 75 knots later


TAF RJTT 080505Z 0806/0912 10018KT 9999 FEW015 BKN030
BECMG 0813/0815 10028G38KT 4000 -SHRA BR
TEMPO 0814/0817 3000 +SHRA BR
BECMG 0815/0817 17045G55KT
TEMPO 0817/0821 17060G75KT
2000 +SHRA BR
BECMG 0821/0900 21024G34KT 9999 NSW
BECMG 0906/0909 19014KT
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08-09-2019, 12:02   #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hatrickpatrick View Post
Gabrielle is now expected to briefly attain hurricane status before heading towards our neck of the woods. NHC come currently indicates that it will become post-tropical well before it gets close, but has the potential to hit us, track very close to our Northern coast, or pass well to our North depending on how it plays out. I think after Dorian we’re all aware not to assume anything this far out

I haven’t had a chance to look at any model runs yet today, but what do ye make of this?

The latest tracks have it passing close to our northwest on Wednesday but only as a 25-kt system.
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08-09-2019, 12:10   #57
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https://www.facebook.com/46189565719...9169583796445/
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08-09-2019, 14:13   #58
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Kozushima Airport has reported a gust of 58.1 m/s (209 kph) and a 10-minute average of 41.6 m/s (150 kph) in the past hour.

https://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/to...0&groupCode=30
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08-09-2019, 21:22   #59
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This is some wind report for close to a major metropolis. 63 gusting 85 knots at Tokyo Haneda airport a little while ago

SPECI RJTT 081832Z 07063G85KT 0200 R34L///// R22/0250V0350N R34R/0200V0375N R05/M0050V0900U +SHRA BR FEW001 BKN003 BKN009 26/26 Q0968 RMK 1ST001 5ST003 7ST009 A2860 P/FR RI++=
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08-09-2019, 22:37   #60
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90 knots at Tokyo's other airport at Narita, well to the east of the city.

SPECI RJAA 082035Z 16056G90KT 0400 R16R/0125V0250N R16L/M0050V0800D +SHRA FEW002 BKN006 25/25 Q0975 RMK 1ST002 7ST006 A2880 P/FR RI++=
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