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24-01-2019, 19:31   #31
sdanseo
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ICON calling for significant snow on Monday (+93hrs only) with just -5 uppers

Calling GL - calling GL - your thoughts? ICON usually pessimistic for wintry stuff.

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24-01-2019, 19:36   #32
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GFS has it as a rain event, could be very knife-edge stuff. should produce snow over high ground.

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24-01-2019, 19:39   #33
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Normally those models are the other way around. ICON hit the pub early today?
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24-01-2019, 19:45   #34
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The LP projected to cross the country Saturday a bit further S on latest runs keeping the strongest winds off the coast initially and becoming very windy with Gales around coasts later that evening when the Winds veer to a NW'ly direction and remaining blustery into Sun. Pulling down much colder airs leading to wintry showers later Sat / Sun and feeling very cold in the wind on Sunday . Quite wet along Atlantic coastal counties .




















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24-01-2019, 19:56   #35
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An incorrect data output regarding icon. - 8 over Scotland and it's raining while - 5 with snow, not a chance
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24-01-2019, 20:11   #36
Meteorite58
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Yes Monday trough passing over the country in a NW airflow, cold uppers approx -5C or so, wintry looking , perhaps wet snow on hills / mountains ?

I agree sadenso , ICON very slow to show snowy conditions.









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Tues just on the edge of 120hrs looking very cold on present runs ( been showing it now for a few days ) Charts at present showing snow / wintry showers throughout the day along Atlantic counties and some possibly settling on the ground into Weds . Bit away yet to know for certain .





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24-01-2019, 21:52   #37
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ICON 18Z looking quite windy on the coasts and gusty over land later Sat into Sun.


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25-01-2019, 01:21   #38
Gaoth Laidir
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sdanseo View Post
ICON calling for significant snow on Monday (+93hrs only) with just -5 uppers

Calling GL - calling GL - your thoughts? ICON usually pessimistic for wintry stuff.

I don't have an ICON sounding but the ARPEGE is showing a marginal situation imby by midday Monday (96 hrs). Warmer air in place earlier in the morning so the sounding below shows it after cooling down in the northwesterly. This would give heavy sleet at low levels but snow above around 150 metres (MSL pressure will be a bit higher than the 1000 hPa shown).

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25-01-2019, 07:06   #39
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Car crash models this morning if its cold you want. That said the variation in outcome model run by model run is so great for every model that you would be as well reading tea leaves to guess the next fortnights weather.
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25-01-2019, 07:24   #40
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The 00Z ARPEGE completely gets rid of that marginal situation I posted above and replaces it with at most a light rain setup, with no hint of snow.




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25-01-2019, 17:13   #41
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Euro 4 showing the strong winds in coastal areas Sat evening into Sun, very blustery overland also .







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25-01-2019, 17:32   #42
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Well getting closer perhaps to seeing a snow /ice thread coming for next Tues/ Weds

I will put these up and we will see what the 12Z ECM run shows coming out soon. A wintry day Tues windy in parts , mainly Southern counties and bitter cold, very sharp frosts after dark and potentially very icy roads from a lot of mixed precipitation sweeping the country on Tues, potential for snow accumulations.























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25-01-2019, 18:10   #43
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Total novice here guys but just looking at the Atlantic charts for next Tuesday and the possibility of snow accumulations - How can you get accumulations with surface Atlantic temperatures appearing relatively high and the snow showers appearing to stream in from the Atlantic? Sorry if its a stupid question ...




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25-01-2019, 19:17   #44
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Total novice here guys but just looking at the Atlantic charts for next Tuesday and the possibility of snow accumulations - How can you get accumulations with surface Atlantic temperatures appearing relatively high and the snow showers appearing to stream in from the Atlantic?
If the airmass is cold enough off Greenland and the windspeed high enough then the air will not modify too much and snow will result. However, this is rarely the case. The 2000-km+ sea track usually modifies the air too much and, as you say, leads to the wrong side of marginal for proper snow to all levels. This will be the case again this week.
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25-01-2019, 19:27   #45
Meteorite58
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Total novice here guys but just looking at the Atlantic charts for next Tuesday and the possibility of snow accumulations - How can you get accumulations with surface Atlantic temperatures appearing relatively high and the snow showers appearing to stream in from the Atlantic? Sorry if its a stupid question ...
No Expert myself irishfeen but what is showing up in the charts is an airmas set to move over us sourced from a NW'ly / N direction . Cold upper air sourced from Polar / Greenland regions. Cold air over relatively warm SST's aid convection resulting in numerous showers, embedded troughs etc. Cold air just on the right side of marginal I think to produce snow, albeit wet. In all looks like a day of wintry precipitation, rain, sleet, hail, possible thunder and snow on hills and mountains, will see closer if we get some snow on sea level.

Been holding this pattern now for numerous runs.






















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