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04-09-2019, 07:07   #5356
M.T. Cranium
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Wednesday, 4 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 September, 2019

-- Temperatures will be near normal values.
-- Rainfall will be 25 to 50 per cent of normal, driest in parts of the east and south.
-- Sunshine will be near normal, to slightly above normal in parts of the east.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy and cool with a few passing showers, some of which may contain hail or thunder by afternoon, those most likely in north Connacht and west Ulster. Winds northwest 40 to 70 km/hr and even higher gusts possible in west Ulster by mid-day. Highs only around 14 C in the north, 17 C near south coast and 16 C around Dublin.

TONIGHT will be clearing and cool with lows 4 to 8 C.

THURSDAY will become partly cloudy with more cloud in the north at times, followed by outbreaks of light rain by evening mostly in the northwest. A bit warmer again with highs 18 to 20 C. Rather breezy at times from a westerly direction.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with occasional showers in the morning, and a slow clearing trend later, winds moderating during the day. Lows 8 to 10 C and highs 16 to 18 C.

SATURDAY looks pleasant with sunny intervals and light winds, lows near 7 C and highs near 19 C.

SUNDAY will start out with sunshine but clouds will increase by afternoon followed by a brief interval of rain, highs near 20 C.

NEXT WEEK looks rather similar in the sequence of weather to this week, although perhaps with less variation from cool to warm temperatures. At some point, we may be dealing with strong winds from any remnant of Hurricane Dorian reaching the north central Atlantic, but it may be a rather indirect sequence with a new low forming along the cold front of that particular disturbance. It may not be overly energetic so at this point no concern about damaging gusts or heavy rainfalls.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and very warm with highs near 30 C. It has recently clouded over with thunderstorms to our west on radar. Dorian is now reduced to about a cat-2 hurricane east of central Florida with tropical storm force winds reaching parts of the east coast of Florida and bands of rather heavy rainfall. This will be the outcome all up the east coast eventually but a landfall could eventually happen either in North Carolina or more likely in eastern Canada.
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05-09-2019, 07:33   #5357
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Thursday, 5 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 September, 2019

-- Temperatures will be near normal values to about one degree above normal in some parts of the east.
-- Rainfall will be 25 to 50 per cent of normal, driest in parts of the east and south.
-- Sunshine will be 25 to 50 per cent above normal, higher values in the east.


FORECASTS

TODAY will become partly cloudy with more cloud in the north at times, followed by outbreaks of light rain by evening mostly in the northwest. A bit warmer again with highs 18 to 20 C. Rather breezy at times from a westerly direction.

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, 2 to 5 mm on average, and moderate westerly winds 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows will be about 10 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with showers ending from west to east in the morning, and a slow clearing trend later, winds moderating during the day, with highs 16 to 19 C.

SATURDAY looks pleasant with sunny intervals and light winds, lows near 7 C and highs near 19 C. There could be isolated brief showers in eastern Connacht and south Ulster.

SUNDAY will have a cool start to the day under mostly clear skies, then the morning sunshine will fade as clouds increase by afternoon, followed by a brief interval of rain overnight to early Monday, Sunday morning lows 3 to 7 C and afternoon highs near 20 C.

MONDAY will have occasional showers and blustery west winds, highs near 19 C.

The outlook for most of next week is similar to this week, generally near normal in temperature, rather dry but with frequent light showers, and mostly westerly breezes of varying intensity. Watching the outcome of Dorian's final stages but so far no real indications of any direct impact on Irish weather, as a lot of the storm's energy will end up in the far northern Atlantic.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and hot with highs near 28 C locally and 32 C at lower valley elevations where I happened to spend most of the day. This summer started out rather slowly here but has lingered a lot longer than last year's smoky cool-down (some recent days have been 10 or even 15 degrees warmer than same dates last year here). Dorian is now moving past South Carolina with some coastal high water and tropical storm force winds. The impact may be a bit stronger on North Carolina late today and tonight, then the extratropical version forms east of Atlantic City NJ and moves towards Nova Scotia for a late Friday landfall in Cape Breton apparently.
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06-09-2019, 06:59   #5358
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Friday, 6 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 6 to 12 September, 2019

-- Temperatures will be near normal values to about one degree above normal in some parts of the east.
-- Rainfall will be 25 to 50 per cent of normal, driest in parts of the east and south.
-- Sunshine will be 25 to 50 per cent above normal, higher values in the east.


FORECASTS

TODAY will start out partly cloudy to overcast with showers ending from west to east in the morning, and a slow clearing trend later, winds moderating during the day after 40 to 60 km/hr westerly breezes for most of the morning to mid-day hours, with highs 16 to 19 C.

TONIGHT will bring some clearing and you would be able to see the half moon almost midway between Jupiter and Saturn (Jupiter brighter to the right or west of the Moon). Rather cool overnight lows of 5 to 9 C.

SATURDAY looks pleasant with sunny intervals and light winds, and highs near 19 C. There could be isolated brief showers in eastern Connacht and south Ulster but generally no more than trace amounts of rain even there.

SUNDAY will have a cool start to the day under mostly clear skies, then the morning sunshine will fade as clouds increase by afternoon, followed by a brief interval of rain overnight to early Monday, Sunday morning lows 3 to 7 C and afternoon highs near 20 C.

MONDAY will have occasional showers and blustery west winds, highs near 19 C.

TUESDAY will be rather breezy with showers, as a front associated with (by then) former hurricane Dorian sweeps across the north. Although that may sound ominous, it will only be a moderately strong weather event for Ireland. Highs around 18 C.

WEDNESDAY will have some sunny intervals and westerly breezes, isolated showers, and highs near 17 C.

Around THURSDAY or possibly FRIDAY, another extra-tropical low, this time associated with Gabrielle, may visit Ireland with another round of moderate southwest winds and showers.

The models then signal an extended dry spell with stronger high pressure building up near Ireland, maximum temperatures may be fairly close to 20 C for several days but nights could be rather chilly. Eventually a warmer spell could develop if the high sinks a bit further south and allows a southwest flow to begin.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny with increasing high cloud near sunset, and highs near 27 C.
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07-09-2019, 07:11   #5359
M.T. Cranium
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Saturday, 7 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 September 2019

-- Temperatures will average about 0.5 to 1.5 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal, somewhat heavier in northwest than elsewhere.
-- Sunshine will average near normal to about 25 per cent above normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks developing mainly in the south and east. There could be some light drizzly rain for brief intervals in parts of the north central counties. Otherwise most places should remain dry. Highs 17 to 19 C.

TONIGHT will feature some clearing skies in the south and east, rather cool there with lows 5 to 10 C. Remaining more overcast in north and west, lows 8 to 12 C.

SUNDAY will have some bright intervals in the east during the morning, then increasing cloud from the more persistent overcast further west, where rain may develop by afternoon, although amounts rather light. Highs 18 to 20 C.

MONDAY will have a few showers then turning cooler and fresher with northwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr, lows near 10 C and highs 15 to 17 C.

TUESDAY will be breezy with showers or intervals of light rain, southwest winds 50 to 70 km/hr, and highs near 18 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with highs near 18 C.

THURSDAY will be windy with rain at times, mostly in western counties, and highs near 18 C.

Following that, higher pressure will build in and there should be an extended dry spell with highs around 20 C, chilly nights with some local dense fog patches, but warmer still towards the middle to end of the following week.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with light rain at times, and some fog and mist, highs near 19 C. Hurricane Dorian will be moving through Nova Scotia later today on its way northeast towards southern Greenland. Some minor damage is expected with cat-1 hurricane conditions in parts of eastern Nova Scotia by evening. Heavy rain will be more widespread. It's the outer edges of this storm circulation that may brush parts of Ireland on Tuesday, followed by remnants of Gabrielle which is expected to become a hurricane by Monday in the central Atlantic. Although a weaker storm than Dorian, Gabrielle's remnants will come considerably closer to Ireland around Thursday and that could produce stronger wind gusts than the first event.
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08-09-2019, 07:34   #5360
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Sunday, 8 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 September

-- Temperatures will average about 1 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will be only 25% of normal values in many areas, trending towards 50% in western counties.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values, improving late in the seven day interval.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out with some sunny intervals, with any cloud over Leinster breaking fairly early. By afternoon cloud will be increasing in western counties with light rain possible by evening there. Light winds until afternoon, then southerly breezes will freshen. Highs 17 to 20 C.

TONIGHT will see some sporadic light rain mostly in western counties, lows 7 to 10 C.

MONDAY will bring a shift in the winds from southwest to northwest during the first part of the day, and a partial clearing trend as showers move off to the east. Somewhat cooler again with highs around 17 C.

TUESDAY will become windy by afternoon and evening, with a few outbreaks of rain, winds 50 to 70 km/hr, and highs near 18 C.

WEDNESDAY will become sunny during the morning to mid-day hours, with increasing southwest winds late in the day reaching near gale force as remnants of Gabrielle race northeast across Connacht and Ulster overnight into Thursday morning. Highs on Wednesday will reach about 18 C. Winds overnight will be as strong as 70 to 100 km/hr especially in exposed Atlantic coastal counties.

THURSDAY will continue windy for much of the day before moderating, southwest to west 50 to 80 km/hr. Showers will end gradually from west to east, and highs will be close to 17 C.

FRIDAY and next WEEKEND will become settled under strong high pressure, with light breezes or calm conditions developing, and at least some warm sunshine each day, with clear and chilly nights. Highs will be near 20 C. The following week may see a prolonged dry spell and warmer weather developing with some chance of highs reaching the mid 20s in light southeast breezes.

My local weather on Saturday started out with dense fog but that cleared away by mid-morning and the day turned sunny with increasing high cloud, with a warm high of about 25 C. Much further to the east, Hurricane Dorian slammed into Nova Scotia and did considerable damage to trees and the hydro-electric grid as a result of winds gusting to 140 km/hr in some places. The storm is weakening now over southern Labrador on its way to southern Greenland and eventually northwest Iceland. The storm's cold front will cross northern parts of Ireland on Tuesday and remnants of another tropical storm (turning hurricane briefly) Gabrielle will race northeast to merge with this front on Wednesday, bringing stronger winds to Ireland at that time, although not expected to be of damaging intensity.
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09-09-2019, 07:00   #5361
M.T. Cranium
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Monday, 9 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 9 to 15 September

-- Temperatures will be slightly above normal by 0.5 to 1.5 degrees.
-- Rainfall will be 25 to 50 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will be near or slightly above normal, overall, but improving towards the end of the interval, so it may seem rather cloudy for the first half of the week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy but with a few sunny breaks, as well as a few rather brief showers, with 1 to 3 mm of rain the most likely outcome. Highs 17 to 19 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with longer clear intervals in the south, rather cool with lows 7 to 10 C.

TUESDAY will bring increasing cloud and a gradually increasing southwest wind, outbreaks of rain will follow, as winds reach 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 15 to 18 C.

WEDNESDAY will continue breezy and it may turn quite windy by the overnight hours, as remnants of Gabrielle pass by just to the north. Although dry for most of the daytime hours, rain will arrive overnight. Highs 17 to 20 C. Winds increasing to westerly 50 to 80 km/hr.

THURSDAY will see rain tapering off to showers but there may be persistent light rain in the far north after it begins to clear elsewhere, in moderate westerly winds of 40 to 70 km/hr. Highs 17 to 19 C.

FRIDAY will bring sunny intervals, any cloud will likely be of the higher variety and confined mainly to northern counties. Highs 17 to 20 C.

The WEEKEND and much of NEXT WEEK will continue rather warm and dry, with temperatures near 20 C in the daytime hours at first, possibly reaching the mid 20s by middle of next week in light southerly breezes. Nights will be rather chilly and prone to dense fog patches, until the warmer spell when nights will also become rather mild.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast and foggy with rain that was occasionally rather heavy, about 15 mm fell in total, but with some dry intervals between showers. The high was about 18 C.
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10-09-2019, 07:58   #5362
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Tuesday, 10 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 10 to 16 September, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy with increasing cloud and a few outbreaks of light rain by late afternoon or evening, heavier in the north. Winds will increase to southwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Highs 16 to 18 C.

TONIGHT will be windy with a few showers, winds veering to westerly 50 to 70 km/hr, lows near 12 C. Rainfalls about 3 to 7 mm, heavier in the northwest and most of Ulster.

WEDNESDAY will become partly cloudy with longer sunny intervals by afternoon, as winds continue rather brisk from the west, backing to southwest by late in the day. Intervals of rain will resume late in the day lasting overnight. Highs 16 to 20 C.

THURSDAY will be cloudy, rather warm and humid in the south, with a few showers in the north, with moderate to brisk westerly winds moderating later in the day. Lows near 12 C and highs near 19 C.

FRIDAY will become mostly sunny in the south and east, overcast further north but bright as the cloud layers will be of a higher variety, morning lows 5 to 8 C and afternoon highs 18 to 21 C.

The outlook for the weekend and most of next week is generally fair and settled with warmer temperatures possibly interrupted briefly around Monday by a reset of high pressure, so would look for highs in the low 20s on the weekend, with nights rather chilly in the south and east, somewhat milder further north due to more persistent cloud at times, then perhaps falling back to 18 or so early next week and later building back into the low or even mid 20s during the week. This dry spell will likely break down to a more variable Atlantic westerly type pattern later in the month.

My local weather on Monday was damp and cool with a high only around 15 C. Feeling quite autumnal for the first time.
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11-09-2019, 07:30   #5363
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Wednesday, 11 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 September, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal with a warming trend.
-- Rainfall will be 25 to 50 per cent of normal, most of that happening Wednesday night, and mainly dry afterwards.
-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal, quite sunny in the south especially from the weekend on.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring some clearing skies and sunny intervals in brisk westerly breezes, moderating somewhat by afternoon. Highs 17 to 21 C.

TONIGHT will become breezy in the south, with rain spreading into most regions, heavier in the northwest where 10-20 mm may occur. Mild with lows 11 to 14 C.

THURSDAY will continue rather warm and humid with the rain tapering to showers or drizzle during the morning and clearing to follow by mid-day south, afternoon north. Rather breezy at times with westerly winds 50 to 70 km/hr easing by afternoon. Highs 17 to 20 C.

FRIDAY will be clear and cool to start the day, then sunny in most areas, partly cloudy to overcast at times in the north. Lows 4 to 7 C and highs 18 to 21 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY will continue the trend of mostly clear skies in the south, warm by day and relatively cool at night, highs 18 to 22 C. The north will be cloudier with occasional outbreaks of light rain or drizzle possible near northwest coasts, highs 16 to 19 C.

NEXT WEEK will continue warm and dry, with a slight fall in temperatures on Monday followed by a renewed slow rise towards the mid 20s by midweek. Current indications are that the very warm spell will only break down gradually late next week or around the weekend of the 21st and 22nd, with somewhat warmer than average temperatures likely even when the cloud and showers make some inroads back into the weather pattern.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with some heavy rain showers in the morning, gradual clearing to partly cloudy skies by afternoon and highs near 18 C.
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12-09-2019, 08:11   #5364
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Thursday, 12 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 September, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal with a warming trend.
-- Rainfall will be 25 to 50 per cent of normal, after today, some rain at times on Sunday otherwise mainly dry.
-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal, best sunshine in the south.

FORECASTS

TODAY will continue rather warm and humid with the morning light rain tapering to showers or drizzle soon and then clearing by mid-day south, afternoon north. Rather breezy at times with westerly winds 50 to 70 km/hr easing by afternoon. Highs 17 to 20 C.

TONIGHT will bring some clear intervals and lows 4 to 7 C.

FRIDAY will be clear and cool to start the day, then sunny in most areas, partly cloudy to overcast at times in the north. Lows 4 to 7 C and highs 18 to 21 C.

SATURDAY will have warm sunny intervals in the south with increasing cloud in the north, morning lows 5 to 8 and highs 18 to 22 C. Some light rain may develop by evening in the north, continuing overnight.

SUNDAY now looks rather cloudy with the warmer temperatures confined to Munster and perhaps south Leinster, with outbreaks of light rain in central and northern counties, with highs ranging from 16 C in the north, 17 C central and 19 or 20 C south.

MONDAY will see that pattern slowly fading to dry conditions as cloud will decrease later in the day, highs 17 to 21 C.

TUESDAY to about FRIDAY of next week are looking warm and settled with the risk of dense fog patches overnight, daytime highs somewhat variable depending on how much sunshine is able to get through layers of low cloud left over from these fog patches, but potentially well into the 20s especially in central and western counties.

This warmer interval may persist as long as the weekend of 21st-22nd or even into the following week but eventually the pattern is likely to become windy and unsettled due to remnants of tropical activity (as yet unformed) breaking down the high pressure. It goes without saying that such a scenario is low confidence and the warm spell could last quite some time.

My local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy to sunny and the highs were near 20 C.
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13-09-2019, 06:46   #5365
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Friday, 13 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 13 to 19 September 2019

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg above normal, with a generally increasing trend so it will become very warm for this time of year by late next week. Normal highs are currently around 18 C, normal lows around 8 C. Most of the increase will be in the daytime readings, the nights will tend to remain somewhat chilly.
-- Rainfall will average only 10 to 30 per cent of normal, and almost all of that small amount will occur on Sunday. Parts of the south may be almost entirely dry this week.
-- Sunshine will average a little better than the usual 4-5 hours a day, especially in the south at first, but later in all regions.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly sunny with some intervals of higher cloud in the north. After a rather cool start to the day, it will become reasonably warm by afternoon, 16 to 19 C.

TONIGHT will be clear and cool again in the south and some central counties, lows 3 to 8 C. Urban areas may remain a bit warmer, and the north will be milder due to more widespread cloud, lows there closer to 10 C. Some dense fog patches may develop in central low-lying valley districts and as lakes are going to retain heat better than the air, they will be sources of dense fog locally throughout this coming spell of settled weather.

SATURDAY will have some warm sunny spells in the south, while cloud will increase over the north. Generally light winds, but moderate southwest near the Ulster coasts. Highs 17 to 22 C, best in the southeast.

SUNDAY will have somewhat more cloud as a weak frontal zone sets up over north-central counties, and there could be some outbreaks of light rain bringing 3 to 5 mm in some parts. It should remain dry in parts of Munster and south Leinster. Highs in the south could reach about 20 C again, but the cloud further north will likely limit temperatures to 15 to 18 C.

MONDAY will see this cloud and drizzly light rain dissipating from early morning, resulting in some dense fog patches giving way slowly to warm sunshine, highs reaching 18 to 20 C.

NEXT WEEK is looking quite warm with highs possibly reaching 24 or 25 C in some places, so long as morning fog doesn't persist as low cloud which could hold readings down slightly in a few places. Also the light southeast wind flow could generate some weak sea breeze effects on the Leinster coast and parts of the south coast. So highs in a few locations may be held to values closer to 20 C, but it will still feel rather warm even so.

The warm spell could persist and just modify slowly to more cloudy and eventually unsettled conditions late in the month, as the blocking high looks capable of holding on for a week or even two weeks before yielding to the Atlantic flow. Perhaps this is a sign that even in October there will be some further intervals of autumn warmth and hazy sun with foggy nights.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny with cloudy intervals, and a few light showers were seen off to our northwest at times but it remained dry here, with a high of about 19 C.
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14-09-2019, 06:28   #5366
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Saturday, 14 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 14 to 20 September

-- Temperatures will be 2 to 3 deg above normal values, with daytime readings contributing more to that than relatively normal overnight lows.
-- Rainfall will be slight, 25 to 50 per cent possibly in parts of the north, near zero rainfalls in parts of the south.
-- Sunshine will be fairly generous, at least 25 per cent above normal and possibly 50 in some parts of the southeast.

FORECASTS

TODAY will feature some warm sunshine at times despite a fair amount of higher cloud, but it will become overcast in the north by afternoon. Highs 18 to 22 C.

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy except for a few clear intervals in the south, and there will be outbreaks of light rain or drizzle in the north at times, lows there will be 10 to 12 C, perhaps a bit lower due to clear spells further south (7 to 9 C).

SUNDAY will be mostly cloudy except for a few brighter intervals in the south, and patchy light rain will continue to drift further south with a weak frontal disturbance. Amounts in total will only be 3 to 5 mm. Rather cool in the north and some central counties, highs 14 to 17 C. A bit warmer in the south at 19 or 20 C.

MONDAY will see this patchy cloud and drizzle slowly dissipating with hazy sunshine at times, lows near 8 C and highs near 18 C.

TUESDAY to FRIDAY are looking quite pleasant, and I think it may become warmer than some of the computer models are showing which is why my forecasts have been warmer than the official outlook, not sure about any other sources, but I see potential for 23 to 25 C highs in locations not prone to sea breezes which could keep things a bit cooler near some coasts. However, the uncertainty may also be due to the threat of widespread overnight fog patches which could persist in some places long enough to have an influence on how warm the days turn out. Nights will slowly warm up during this fine spell and could be as mild as 10 to 13 C near the end of it, after starting in the 5 to 8 C range.

The breakdown of this settled and possibly quite warm spell is being shown for about the end of the weekend of 21st-22nd, and at that point some guidance plays around with scenarios involving a tropical remnant, not the one associated with "Humberto" which is expected to be named soon northeast of Bahamas, but a later one forming out of the west African wave train next week. So we'll need to keep an eye on that, the remnants of Humberto are more likely to be blocked from approaching too close by the end stages of the coming anticyclonic spell next week.

My local weather on Friday 13th was fairly bland and certainly not scary, partly cloudy with highs near 18 C.
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15-09-2019, 08:19   #5367
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Sunday, 15 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 15 to 21 September, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal, with daytime readings contributing more than relatively normal overnight lows.
-- Rainfall will average 25 per cent of normal values, a little today and possibly a bit more around Sunday of next weekend.
-- Sunshine will average near normal to 25 per cent above normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather misty and overcast in many areas with outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, amounts slight except possibly 3 to 5 mm in parts of Ulster, north Leinster and northeast Connacht. Those areas will remain rather cool with highs 14 to 17 C. Further south, it should reach 18 to 20 C with a few brighter intervals especially near the south coast.

TONIGHT will remain overcast with fog and mist, and the drizzle should end after midnight, with lows 10 to 13 C.

MONDAY will see a gradual clearing trend with the morning fog or mist slowly giving way to intervals of hazy sunshine, highs 18 to 21 C.

TUESDAY to FRIDAY will be a dry and warm interval, at least in terms of daytime highs which should reach the low 20s in many central, inland southern and western counties, and 17 to 20 C in places exposed to southeast breezes from the Irish Sea or south coast. Nights will be clear except for extensive ground fog or mist forming after sunset but becoming more widespread in the early morning hours, then slowly dissipating after sunrise each day. Winds will be light and variable in this spell.

The outlook for the weekend of 21-22 September and beyond is rather uncertain as this warm spell slowly breaks down under increasing attack from the Atlantic and even the possibility of remnant tropical activity being involved. This will likely be the storm forming after the current disturbance, Humberto, which will be quite close to Bermuda by Thursday then probably moving north towards Iceland while Ireland remains under the protection of blocking high pressure. By later in the week of 23rd to 27th there could be some rather gusty winds and rain from stronger Atlantic frontal systems.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast with occasional light rain, and moderate southeast winds, with highs near 17 C.
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16-09-2019, 07:53   #5368
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Monday, 16 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 16 to 22 September, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal, and more like 4 to 5 in the daytime hours since overnight readings will be close to normal values. (At this time of year, normal values are around 8 to 18 C from minimum to maximum).
-- Rainfall will average about 25 to 50 per cent of normal. Now that the recent minor event is almost done, that will occur late in the period towards Sunday 22nd. (Normal rainfalls are about 3 mm a day on average, or 20-25 mm over a week).
-- Sunshine will average a little above the normal amount which is 4 to 5 hours a day (out of a possible 12 at this time of year).

FORECASTS

TODAY will see the final stages of any lingering drizzle or light rain with a gradual clearing trend by mid-day and afternoon, allowing some spells of warmer sunshine to return at least in parts of the west and south. It may take a little longer for clearing to be fully established in parts of the east and north. Highs therefore are likely to be 17 to 20 C in west and south, 15 to 17 C in east and north, in light northeast breezes.

TONIGHT will have some clear intervals but extensive fog and mist will likely develop (or thicken where it stays misty today), and it will become rather cold with lows only 4 to 7 C.

TUESDAY will start out with fog in many areas, gradually clearing to sunshine, in very light or calm winds. Highs 17 to 21 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will be similar days except that it should get slightly warmer each day, particularly in the inland south, central and western counties; some parts of coastal Leinster may stay a few degrees cooler due to the light southeast wind flow enhancing sea breeze potential there. Morning lows will gradually rise through the range of 5 to 8 C, while afternoon highs will make a slow climb from near 20 C to the 23-25 C range in some more favoured locations, or in the case of cooler eastern and northern locations, from near 17 C to 21 C. Winds will be very light for most, but could become moderate southerly near the west coast later in the week. Some overnight fog may be dense and persistent into the morning commute period, plan on some delays especially in rural areas as traffic may be slowed by the poor visibility (or at least should be).

NEXT WEEKEND may see a gradual breakdown of this warm, dry interval with Sunday more likely to have significant rainfalls, but temperatures will only come down slightly as the flow will remain south to southwest, so expect highs around 18 to 20 C.

The trend beyond the weekend appears to continue rather mild for late September with highs still in the slightly above normal range of 18 to 21 C. Eventually some more unsettled and windy weather could develop and a tropical disturbance may get involved in that near the end of the month. That would be a storm expected to develop in a few days near the Windward Islands, rather than the current Hurricane (Humberto) which will be near Bermuda by Thursday night or Friday and will then meander north and northeast towards the Icelandic portion of the North Atlantic.

My local weather on Sunday was wet and foggy at least at our elevation, the fog turned out to be due to a regional cloud base in the Columbia valley of 900 meters (we are at 1050 meters here) but it reminded me about the safe speed for driving in near zero visibility anyway. Our high was only about 14 C. Expecting to see traces of snow soon on the 2000-2300 meter peaks not too far away.
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17-09-2019, 08:00   #5369
M.T. Cranium
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Tuesday, 17 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 17 to 23 September, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, but that will occur from late Saturday to Monday 23rd.
-- Sunshine will average near normal to 25 per cent above normal; the trend after Saturday will be cloudier though.


FORECASTS

TODAY ... some persistent fog or low cloud at first, with hazy sunshine developing, warm by afternoon with highs reaching 17 to 20 C.

TONIGHT ... some clear intervals then widespread fog, low cloud, chilly with lows 4 to 8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Fog lifting gradually, hazy sunshine, warmer with highs 18 to 21 C.

THURSDAY ... Morning fog, mid-day and afternoon hazy sunshine, warm. Lows 5 to 9 C and highs 19 to 22 C.

FRIDAY ... Morning fog, mid-day and afternoon hazy sunshine, warm. Lows 6 to 10 C and highs 19 to 22 C.

SATURDAY ... Sunny with increasing cloud, warm, becoming breezy with south winds 50 to 70 km/hr in western counties, rain by evening. Lows near 10 C and highs 20 to 23 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy to windy with morning showers, partial clearing and fresher by afternoon. Lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

MONDAY ... Windy with occasional rain, highs near 18 C. Winds southwest 60 to 90 km/hr.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some dry and mild days with occasional windy and wet intervals in a strong southwest flow, temperatures remaining a little above average for late September.

My local weather on Monday was overcast with occasional light rain and highs near 16 C. Hurricane Humberto continues to lumber towards Bermuda which will be lashed by its outer edges around Friday morning, the core might become a cat-3 hurricane but it's not definite yet as to the maximum intensity of winds hitting Bermuda, possibly more like cat-1 there. The models continue to move Humberto more north than east after the weekend, with a new storm likely to form in the tropical regions east of the Windward Islands later today.
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18-09-2019, 07:05   #5370
M.T. Cranium
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Wednesday, 18 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 18 to 24 September, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 2 deg above normal, but after Saturday closer to normal values (which by then would be highs near 17 C and lows around 7 C).
-- Rainfall will average near normal, but this will fall mainly during the period Sunday to Tuesday.
-- Sunshine will also average near or just slightly above normal, with generous amounts today to Friday, then more cloudy than average.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny and (by mid-day and afternoon) quite warm with light winds and highs 18 to 21 C.

TONIGHT will be clear with occasional fog or mist patches, lows 5 to 8 C.

THURSDAY will be sunny with a bit of high cloud at times, hazy and warm with highs 19 to 22 C.

FRIDAY will continue hazy and warm after a clear night with a few fog patches, lows 6 to 10 C and highs 19 to 23 C.

SATURDAY will see the breakdown of this fine spell of weather, with increasing cloud and outbreaks of light rain, more persistent in the southwest but occasionally appearing in most other parts of the country. It will stay warm for one more day, lows near 13 C and highs in the range 19 to 22 C. Moderate southerly winds will replace the calm conditions.

SUNDAY will bring intervals of rain, 5 to 15 mm possible, with gradual clearing later in the afternoon and evening. Fresher and breezy, with lows near 12 C and highs near 17 C.

MONDAY will have some partly cloudy intervals and some outbreaks of light rain, blustery southwest winds at times, highs near 17 C.

The OUTLOOK is rather uncertain as it will depend to some extent on the eventual trajectory of remnants of Hurricane Humberto, which should be entering the picture around mid-week but may still be largely confined to northern parts of the Atlantic. One or two fairly strong frontal systems appear likely around mid-week and Friday of next week (27th), and these could bring strong wind gusts and significant rainfalls, but I think there is some chance of this signal being overdone and the actual outcome being just a continuation of rather bland autumnal weather. It may be somewhat of a mixture of both outcomes from blustery in the north to more tranquil in the southeast.

My local weather is making me regret not planning a trip to Ireland this week, we have had three days now of gloom and drizzle or rain with the cloud base at ground level here much of the time. It's rather chilly now as well with highs only around 13 C. Meanwhile, category 3 Humberto has turned towards Bermuda, with a close encounter likely on Friday. Tropical storm Imelda came and went in one part of Tuesday and is now inland over Texas. What that means is that Tropical Depression 11 took the "I" name and Tropical Depression 10, still east of Barbados, will get the "J" name (confusing but it also reminds us that one numbered depression -- T.D. 3 in July -- never got strong enough to have a name earlier this season). The "J" name turns out to be Jerry and after that any storms will be named Karen, Lorenzo and perhaps Melissa (Nestor and Olga probably won't happen this season). Jerry should be with us very soon and will be tracking somewhat similarly to Dorian although likely turning north before hitting the Bahamas. It is currently being predicted to attain just category one status around Monday 23rd.
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