[Agent_47]

Originally Posted by Slashermcguirk

Completely on a hunch but I am convinced we will see snow towards second half of December. Can just feel it coming, been such a weird weather year. Amazing from March to early June, crap summer and then very pleasant in September and part of a October. November relatively dry and just have a feeling as lockdown lifts we will get some snow. Something decent has to come out of this year.

BELIEVE :-)

Think chances of having a 3rd lockdown are more certain than snow in December

[daniel_t1409]

Originally Posted by Agent_47

Think chances of having a 3rd lockdown are more certain than snow in December

Wouldn't really consider this a second lock down, more just increased restrictions.

[Oneiric 3]

[Graces7]

Originally Posted by Slashermcguirk

Completely on a hunch but I am convinced we will see snow towards second half of December. Can just feel it coming, been such a weird weather year. Amazing from March to early June, crap summer and then very pleasant in September and part of a October. November relatively dry and just have a feeling as lockdown lifts we will get some snow. Something decent has to come out of this year.

BELIEVE :-)

Have a look at " Life below Zero" on youtube. SNOW from start to finish. totally addictive and enthralling. Sheer snow . Being lived in fully.

[hatrickpatrick]

There is a fair amount of chatter about potential stratospheric disruption beginning to appear towards the tail end of FI runs in both the ECM and GFS ensembles. Not enough yet in my view to warrant setting up a dedicated stratosphere thread (how many times in recent years have warmings appeared in FI only to continually hover around the +300h mark for days and never move closer to reality) but it's definitely something to keep an eye on - there seems to be a growing feeling that a PV split in January may eventually be on the cards.

Of course, even if this does happen, as we saw two winters ago, it's possible to have a stratospheric split which fails to downwell quickly enough to impact our weather before Spring begins. Indeed, I could never shake the feeling that the utterly crappy -NAO setup we had for most of Spring and Summer in 2019 may have been influenced by the extremely slow downwelling of that winter's PV split, although I realise this is unlikely to have had an impact lasting for nearly as long as the horrendous omega block we ended up on the wrong side of that summer. Definitely couldn't help feeling that the late Spring dreariness might have been related, however.

[sryanbruen]

I already set up the stratosphere watch thread hatrickpatrick

Looks like a standard minor warming to me that we see a few of every winter pretty much.

[nacho libre]

Originally Posted by sryanbruen

I already set up the stratosphere watch thread hatrickpatrick

Looks like a standard minor warming to me that we see a few of every winter pretty much.

Yeah, Ventrice doesn't make much of it either. Although is there any chance that all the blocking in the troposphere could have a significant effect on the stratosphere in the longer term, or is this warming over Siberia the best we can hope for. Do you think a major warming could happen later this winter?

[Oneiric 3]

Stat warming is false hope for cold lovers. Every year around this time it is the same story. It is pretty much like the concept that the 'jet stream' dictates large scale weather patterns, when in reality it is the large scale weather patterns that dictate the position of the jet stream. Winter is coming, and that will be the most important determiner of all as to whether we got a good cold, snowy spell or not.

I think it is amusing though that I observed more frosty mornings in September than I have done in Oct/Nov combined.

[Little snowy old me]

I hear there's s big snowstorm on the way.....

[snowstorm445]

Originally Posted by Little snowy old me

I hear there's s big snowstorm on the way.....

Good morning all.

No but seriously I'm feeling quite fatalist about this winter already - a few winters ago we always still had the element of "oh well we don't even know how the weather will play out beyond next week, let's see what happens".

Now we've had a such a consistent string of back to back poor winters that we have a good idea how they will shape up in advance - the conditions, the patterns, particularly how the polar vortex behaves etc. And this year predictably seems to be heading that way once again.

[Slashermcguirk]

Great to see first big frost arriving here in Dublin just before winter officially kicks in

[Slashermcguirk]

WTF? We had an incredible winter as recently as 2018! Like over a metre of snow in places. The negativity on here never seizes to amaze me. Winter starts next week

Originally Posted by snowstorm445

Good morning all.

No but seriously I'm feeling quite fatalist about this winter already - a few winters ago we always still had the element of "oh well we don't even know how the weather will play out beyond next week, let's see what happens".

Now we've had a such a consistent string of back to back poor winters that we have a good idea how they will shape up in advance - the conditions, the patterns, particularly how the polar vortex behaves etc. And this year predictably seems to be heading that way once again.

[daniel_t1409]

at this stage, I'll be happy if we just get a solid 2 weeks of cold clear weather

[daniel_t1409]

Another brilliant morning here in wexford. Very cold, but nice and sunny

[Gonzo]

first frost of the season here in Meath, great to see it at last.