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Recession predictions

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  • #932
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,779 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    saabsaab wrote:
    Shopping in Dunnes I asked a suited employee (manager?) for a certain common foodstuff. He told me that there were shortages of it at the moment!

    Yup, supply chains are all over the place at the moment, but there's still plenty of over supply of many of our goods in our surplus shops such as Mr price, dealz, bargain shops etc etc.


  • #933
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    Yup, supply chains are all over the place at the moment, but there's still plenty of over supply of many of our goods in our surplus shops such as Mr price, dealz, bargain shops etc etc.

    Check the sell by and use by dates on the products in the shops you named


  • #934
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,779 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    brisan wrote:
    Check the sell by and use by dates on the products in the shops you named


    Do much of those products 'go off'?


  • #935
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    Do much of those products 'go off'?

    Foodstuff and confectionery do


  • #936
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,779 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    brisan wrote:
    Foodstuff and confectionery do

    They can of course, but You 'll find many of the products stocked in those shops, lasts much longer than dated, hence why they're allowed to be stocked and sold


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  • #937
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,406 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    They can of course, but You 'll find many of the products stocked in those shops, lasts much longer than dated, hence why they're allowed to be stocked and sold

    I have a bread roll that I got on a flight 10 years ago still looks the same as the day I got it... I wouldn’t eat but it shows whatever chemicals they put in work.


  • #938
    KyussB
    Registered Users Posts: 2,314 ✭✭✭KyussB


    thomas 123 wrote: »
    Eamon O Cuiv talking about hyper inflation post covid due to borrowing.
    Where did he say that?

    Fianna Fail seem to be rebranding as Austrian-economics supporters i.e. anarcho-capitalists/right-wing-Libertarians - and hyperinflation scaremongering fits perfectly with that, so am curious to see more evidence of this trend.

    Even Michael Martin is adopting their lingo - dismissing more effective coronavirus restrictions as 'statist' - generally you will only find Libertarians describe government policy in that way.


  • #939
    virginmediapls
    Registered Users Posts: 325 ✭✭virginmediapls


    Some of the doom and gloom here is good craic now.

    Ah Jaysus. Shortage of sweetcorn in the southern counties of Munster. We're all ****ed.


  • #940
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,779 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Timing belt wrote:
    I have a bread roll that I got on a flight 10 years ago still looks the same as the day I got it... I wouldn’t eat but it shows whatever chemicals they put in work.

    Surplus shops, such as those mentioned, don't sell such products, the majority of their products effectively never goes off, or takes a long time to do so, they wouldn't be able to sell potentially dangerous products such as 10 year old breads. Again, we 're not experiencing significant supply issues, just minor, yet annoying ones. It's highly unlikely we 'll experience inflationary issues, we 're still potentially looking at period of deflation


  • #941
    Roger the cabin boy
    Registered Users Posts: 365 ✭✭Roger the cabin boy


    virginmediapls wrote: »
    Some of the doom and gloom here is good craic now.

    Ah Jaysus. Shortage of sweetcorn in the southern counties of Munster. We're all ****ed.

    Bertie says hi.


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  • #942
    Tea drinker
    Registered Users Posts: 2,818 ✭✭✭Tea drinker


    ECB warns that 'doom loop' between banks and governments that led to Ireland's bailout a decade ago could be repeated again
    Ditching supports or keeping them too long could spark crisis, Central Bank fears
    https://www.independent.ie/business/world/ecb-warns-that-doom-loop-between-banks-and-governments-that-led-to-irelands-bailout-a-decade-ago-could-be-repeated-again-39792518.html

    Why is the ECB warning about this? We can just print money ad infinitum.


  • #943
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,406 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Tea drinker wrote: »
    ECB warns that 'doom loop' between banks and governments that led to Ireland's bailout a decade ago could be repeated again
    Ditching supports or keeping them too long could spark crisis, Central Bank fears
    https://www.independent.ie/business/world/ecb-warns-that-doom-loop-between-banks-and-governments-that-led-to-irelands-bailout-a-decade-ago-could-be-repeated-again-39792518.html

    Why is the ECB warning about this? We can just print money ad infinitum.

    This is not about printing money or QE. This is in relation to companies taking on to much debt and not being able to support it... leading to higher level of defaults for the banks. If they stop the supports to early it will kick in bring down some companies that might survive and if they keep it going to long then they are just propping up companies that will fail anyway.

    What I thought was interesting was the CBI press release today where they said that market sentiment had diverged with what is really happening on the ground.


  • #944
    riddles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,021 ✭✭✭riddles


    The combined global debt to gdp now stands at 365% increasing something like 70tn in a year.


  • #945
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,779 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    riddles wrote:
    The combined global debt to gdp now stands at 365% increasing something like 70tn in a year.


    That both public and private debt?


  • #946
    riddles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,021 ✭✭✭riddles


    Just public debt


  • #947
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,779 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    riddles wrote:
    Just public debt

    Ah nothing major to worry about then, private debt is the more dangerous one, and with that also at all time highs.....


  • #948
    KyussB
    Registered Users Posts: 2,314 ✭✭✭KyussB


    riddles wrote: »
    The combined global debt to gdp now stands at 365% increasing something like 70tn in a year.
    Sectoral Balances: Governments have contributed 365% worth of global GDP to private sector financial assets, and are contributing 70 trillion in financial assets to the private sector each year.


  • #949
    salonfire
    Registered Users Posts: 3,078 ✭✭✭salonfire


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    Ah nothing major to worry about then, private debt is the more dangerous one, and with that also at all time highs.....

    Then why was Ireland borrowing off the IMF in 2010?


  • #950
    Zenify
    Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    anyone any ideas on how this recession is going to play out? surely the money can't keep flowing....? or can it?


  • #951
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    Zenify wrote: »
    anyone any ideas on how this recession is going to play out? surely the money can't keep flowing....? or can it?

    Someone will have to pay .........who and when remains the question
    If I had substantial savings, a large pension pot, an expensive property or a second home I would be very worried
    The squeezed middle cannot give a lot more without affecting the results of the next election


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  • #952
    Geuze
    Registered Users Posts: 13,032 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Yes, will economic growth / recovery during 2021 be enough to boost tax revenues and cut COVID expenditure?


    Or will tax increases be required?


  • #953
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,779 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    salonfire wrote:
    Then why was Ireland borrowing off the IMF in 2010?

    an over reliance on the private sector for economic growth via money creation, which in turn used it's abilities to create this money in the form of credit, and the rest is history......
    Zenify wrote:
    anyone any ideas on how this recession is going to play out? surely the money can't keep flowing....? or can it?

    How longs a piece of string...
    We 're heading into a period of deflation, so more money is the solution, reverting to the norm to do so, as above, is probably a dumb move, but we 're dead set on trying, again! Giving people money directly makes sense, but we probably won't do that
    brisan wrote:
    Someone will have to pay .........who and when remains the question If I had substantial savings, a large pension pot, an expensive property or a second home I would be very worried The squeezed middle cannot give a lot more without affecting the results of the next election

    Yes and no, rising deficits are fine, as long as the debts are regularly serviced, public debts can be rolled over indefinitely, without any major issues, this is common practice globally, and as you can see, the world hasn't ended, just yet, due to these facts. But since we normally have fiscally conservative governments, they'll probably panic down the road, over nothing, over something that doesn't need panicking, and start directing things towards servicing the national debt, when there's no actual need to. national debt is in fact a critical component of the money supply itself, no debt, no money supply. This then pushes the requirement for the money supply out into the private sector, which has all the problems as previously mentioned.
    Geuze wrote:
    Or will tax increases be required?

    In theory they shouldn't need to be, if the economy is nortured back to life, towards growth, we d probably be grand at current tax levels, but as explained above, when fiscally conservative governments panic, again, over nothing......


  • #954
    salonfire
    Registered Users Posts: 3,078 ✭✭✭salonfire


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    an over reliance on the private sector for economic growth via money creation, which in turn used it's abilities to create this money in the form of credit, and the rest is history......

    That's not what I asked. I did not ask what the cause was.

    I asked why Ireland were forced to borrow from the IMF? If public debt is not a big deal, why the IMF? If public debt is a good thing, creditors would have thrown money to Ireland to grow the debt. So why didn't they?


  • #955
    ExMachina1000
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,748 ✭✭✭ExMachina1000


    salonfire wrote: »
    That's not what I asked. I did not ask what the cause was.

    I asked why Ireland were forced to borrow from the IMF? If public debt is not a big deal, why the IMF? If public debt is a good thing, creditors would have thrown money to Ireland to grow the debt. So why didn't they?

    The public sector is a drain on the economy. The bigger the public sector the weaker the economy.


  • #956
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,779 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Wanderer78 wrote:
    an over reliance on the private sector for economic growth via money creation, which in turn used it's abilities to create this money in the form of credit, and the rest is history......

    salonfire wrote:
    I asked why Ireland were forced to borrow from the IMF? If public debt is not a big deal, why the IMF? If public debt is a good thing, creditors would have thrown money to Ireland to grow the debt. So why didn't they?


    I just did explain! But these are very good questions! The previous crash was primarily a private sector issue, a private debt problem, primarily linked to a property boom, primarily backed by private sector created credit, but you d be surprised by the amount of people that think it was primarily a public sector problem, a public debt problem, it wasnt, even though our state bodies and institutions also played their part in it to....

    Again, your posing extremely important and serious questions regarding the whole situation, why the imf, why didn't we increase our deficits, why did we impose austerity, when the financial elements of the crash were primarily a private sector problem!


  • #957
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,779 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ExMachina1000 wrote:
    The public sector is a drain on the economy. The bigger the public sector the weaker the economy.

    So if we had a 'smaller' public sector, this would have prevented the previous crash by......

    ....and if we had a 'smaller' public sector, this would have helped resolve our current situation by......


  • #958
    riddles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,021 ✭✭✭riddles


    ECB set to continue buying bonds into 2022 the addition to cheap money is now permanent.


  • #959
    ExMachina1000
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,748 ✭✭✭ExMachina1000


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    So if we had a 'smaller' public sector, this would have prevented the previous crash by......

    ....and if we had a 'smaller' public sector, this would have helped resolve our current situation by......

    Think of it as more of a drag on the economy.
    In the private sector if a business isnt productive and profitable it is replaced. Public sector departments cost money

    You are trying to over simplify as if economics could be taught in a half day after lunch.

    If you prefer to keep it simple think of it like a Netflix account. The private sector pay for it while the rest enjoy the benefits


  • #960
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,779 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ExMachina1000 wrote:
    Think of it as more of a drag on the economy. In the private sector if a business isnt productive and profitable it is replaced. Public sector departments cost money

    So private companies are never bailed out, they are simply allowed to fail, yea?
    ExMachina1000 wrote:
    You are trying to over simplify as if economics could be taught in a half day after lunch.

    Am I the one over simplyfy or is it you? There's nothing simplify in regards economics, but the mainstream profession would try to have you believe it can be simplified, with its supplies and demands, equilibriums, efficiencies, and blah blah blah.

    Be some craic if we didn't have a functioning public sector, wouldn't it, particularly right now!


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  • #961
    salonfire
    Registered Users Posts: 3,078 ✭✭✭salonfire


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    I just did explain! But these are very good questions! The previous crash was primarily a private sector issue, a private debt problem, primarily linked to a property boom, primarily backed by private sector created credit, but you d be surprised by the amount of people that think it was primarily a public sector problem, a public debt problem, it wasnt, even though our state bodies and institutions also played their part in it to....

    Again, your posing extremely important and serious questions regarding the whole situation, why the imf, why didn't we increase our deficits, why did we impose austerity, when the financial elements of the crash were primarily a private sector problem!

    You still haven't answered the question. You repeated the cause when I explicitly told you I wasn't asking about the cause.

    I'll ask you again and I am not letting you away with this nonsense you and others spout across boards and social media ..

    .. if we should just keep adding to the debt, why did we have to resort to the IMF? If piling on to the debt mountain is not a bad thing, why were investors not rushing to buy Government Bonds?


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