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17-11-2020, 12:07   #301
Gaoth Laidir
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Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
400 AM EST Tue Nov 17 2020

Iota made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane along the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua around 0340 UTC, near the town of Haulover.
Iota's landfall location was about 12 nmi south of where Category 4
Hurricane Eta made landfall earlier this month on November 3rd. Due
to the previous damage caused by Eta, wind reports have been
extremely limited. There was an amateur radio report from Club de
Radio-Experimentadores de Nicaragua of 124 mph (200 Km/h) winds and
roofs damaged in the town of Wilbi, Nicaragua. However, it is
uncertain if these were sustained winds or wind gusts. At the Puerto
Cabezas, Nicaragua, airport at 0253 UTC, a sustained wind of 72 kt
(134 km/h) and a gust to 98 kt (182 km/h) were measured. The initial
intensity of 90 kt is based on the Decay-SHIPS model's weakening
rate for inland tropical cyclones, and the remnant eye feature
still noted in infrared satellite imagery.

Iota is moving westward, or 270/08 kt. Iota is expected to continue
moving generally westward today into early Wednesday, as the cyclone
moves along he southern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge
located over the northern Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and
southeastern Mexico. The lower levels of the ridge are forecast to
push southward behind a cold front, which will force Iota and its
remnants west-southwestward across southern Honduras and El Salvador
in the 24-36 hour period. Iota is expected to dissipate by 48 hours,
with the remnant mid-level circulation possibly drifting westward
into the eastern North Pacific basin. The new NHC track forecast is
essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track, and
closely follows a blend of the consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and
FSSE.

Additional rapid weakening is forecast for the next 36 hours as Iota
moves farther inland over the rugged terrain of Nicaragua and
Honduras. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and closely follows the Decay-SHIPS intensity guidance.

Although Hurricane Iota has moved inland, damaging winds are
occurring inland, and also along the northeastern coast of
Nicaragua, where a significant storm surge of 5-10 ft is still
likely occurring. In addition to the destructive winds and storm
surge, there will be the potential for up to 30 inches of rainfall.
The situation is exacerbated by the fact that Iota is moving across
the same general location that Category 4 Hurricane Eta did a
little less than two weeks ago.

Key Messages:

1. Iota is still a significant hurricane. Damaging winds and a
life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the
coast of northeastern Nicaragua during the next several hours, where
a hurricane warning is in effect.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected
through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy
rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of
Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by Hurricane
Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially
catastrophic impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 13.7N 84.3W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
12H 17/1800Z 13.8N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 18/0600Z 13.8N 87.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/1800Z 13.7N 89.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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17-11-2020, 19:12   #302
Meteorite58
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Very hard to get verified data from Nicaragua, NHC mentioning how most of the weather equipment was put out of action from the last Hurricane. Flooding seems to be the biggest issue.

https://twitter.com/CopernicusEU/sta...633804289?s=20
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01-12-2020, 21:58   #303
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The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season officially came to a close yesterday, though the odd sporadic system cannot be ruled out over the next month or two (no signs of anything in the immediate future).

Statistically speaking, it had a record number of named systems (30), which was two more than the previous record of 28 in 2005 and ten more than the next highest year, 1933. Of these, 13 became hurricanes, 6 of which were major (Cat 3 or above). This was less than 2005, when there were 15 hurricanes, with 7 major. In fact, despite the record number of named systems this year, the average activity of each (as measured by ACE) was very low (5.99/named system), less than a third of the highest year on record, 1926 (20.9/named system), and significantly below 2005 (8.76/named system). Of the 30 named systems, 14 failed to reach max intensity >50 knots.

The most intense storm in terms of windspeed alone was Iota back in mid-November (140 knots, 4.5 named storm days, 2.5 hurricane days, 1.25 major hurricane days, 12.7 total ACE), but the most intense in terms of total ACE (which combines windspeed with duration) was Teddy in mid-September (120 knots, 9.0 NSD, 7.25 HD, 2.75 MHD, 27.8 total ACE).

The weakest storms were Bertha (May) and Alpha (mid-September), both of which only reached 45 knots, 0.5 NSD and 0.4 ACE).

In terms of overall season ACE, 2020's value of 179.8 ranks 13th in the 172-year record. It was 72% above the 1980-2010 average of 104.2.

2020 stats up to 1st December, with 1980-2010 averages in brackets.


 2020RankRecord
Named storms30 (11.9)1st2020
Named storm days118.0 (58.2)4th2005
Hurricanes13 (6.4)2nd2005
Hurricane days34.75 (23.9)30th1893, 1995
Major hurricanes6 (2.7)Jt. 2nd2005
Major hurricane days8.75 (6.2)Jt. 28th1926
Total ACE178.9 (104.2)13th1933

Last edited by Gaoth Laidir; 01-12-2020 at 23:02.
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05-12-2020, 00:30   #304
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05-12-2020, 01:24   #305
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The Northeast Pacific season has also come to a close. It was a very quiet one overall, ranking well down in the bottom half of the 50-year record in all metrics, from 28th for Named Storms to Joint 48th for Hurricanes.

2020 stats up to 4th December.
 1980-20102020RankRecord
Named storms16.616J. 28th1992 (27)
Named storm days73.05240th1992 (153.75)
Hurricanes8.94J. 48th1990, 1992, 2014, 2015 (16)
Hurricane days29.914.2543rd2018 (67.5)
Major hurricanes4.33Jt. 31st2015 (11)
Major hurricane days8.95.00Jt. 32nd2018 (35)
Total ACE131.676.541st2018 (317.1)

Attached Images
File Type: png NE Pacific 2020.PNG (38.2 KB, 78 views)

Last edited by Gaoth Laidir; 05-12-2020 at 01:31.
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