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US Presidential Election 2020

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,447 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Bloomberg getting the young voters out in the key swing state of American Samoa.

    If he gets Guam he could be on his way.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,664 ✭✭✭sid waddell


    Would ye ever calm down. There has been no surprising results yet. Everything going precisely as predicted.

    Bernie will win Maine and Minnesota. Only thing stopping him winning Mass would be Warren.

    Biden was favourite in eastern states, Bernie in western.

    Nothing remotely eventful has happened.
    I tend to agree and certainly expected Biden to win Virginia and North Carolina but Bernie really needs to win Texas and you feel he'll lose there too.

    I wouldn't count Minnesota as a gimme. Klobuchar endorsed Biden and was running Sanders close there.

    If he doesn't win Minnesota, he's in massive trouble.

    He needs to at least break even at 7-7 in terms of states won tonight.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,744 ✭✭✭✭Hello 2D Person Below


    Seems like we have some shenanigans going on at UCLA...


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,832 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    Bernie had the last 4 years to build support among the black community and it looks like he has failed terribly.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,832 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    Would ye ever calm down. There has been no surprising results yet. Everything going precisely as predicted.

    Bernie will win Maine and Minnesota. Only thing stopping him winning Mass would be Warren.

    Biden was favourite in eastern states, Bernie in western.

    Nothing remotely eventful has happened.

    It isn't first past the post gets all the delegates.

    For them to call Biden so early he'll likely grab a big majority of votes in them.

    Now the expected Bernie states are too close to call so they'll likely be tighter splits of delegates.


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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,170 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    So apparently last night. Biden held a rally in Texas. He brings on Beto, saying that Beto, of “hell yes, we’ll take your guns” fame, will be in charge of Biden’s gun control efforts.

    The day before Texas voted. (And Arkansas, Alabama...)
    Fortunately for him, word might have taken a while to get around.




  • Giving it to Biden is brain dead. Hillary part 2. Looks like it'll be four more years of trump.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,981 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    So apparently last night. Biden held a rally in Texas. He brings on Beto, saying that Beto, of “hell yes, we’ll take your guns” fame, will be in charge of Biden’s gun control efforts.

    .

    Trust me, Republicans have taken note of that.

    Beto also a few months ago said Churches that oppose Same-Sex Marriage would Lose Tax-Exempt Status if he was president, that also won't be forgotten.

    Those policies don't bother me ,,,but won't play well in the red states.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,664 ✭✭✭sid waddell


    Biden has one big advantage if it is him taking on Trump. He wins the "I'd rather go for a beer with him" contest.

    Which is a big deal and why female politicians have such a hard time doing well in presidential contests.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,981 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    I think Warren will drop out in the next day or two. I want to give her the benefit of the doubt, but if she doesn't its obvious she has been bought of by the DNC establishment just like Pete and Amy were and is running as a spoiler candidate.:(


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,664 ✭✭✭sid waddell


    Giving it to Biden is brain dead. Hillary part 2. Looks like it'll be four more years of trump.

    There's one really good sign for Democrats tonight. Turnout is massive. Virginia has obliterated the 2008 figure comfortably.


  • Registered Users Posts: 128 ✭✭Red for Danger


    Everybody will wake up tomorrow and slowly come to the realization that Joe Bidan is still Joe Bidan.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,664 ✭✭✭sid waddell


    AP have called Minnesota for Biden. That's a massive one for him. He's firmly in pole position now.

    Bloomberg and Warren will drop out after tonight.

    Sanders has one remaining shot and that's to obliterate Biden in a two-way debate, but it's a long shot.

    I think the nomination has been effectively been decided tonight.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 136 ✭✭DreamsBurnDown


    AP have called Minnesota for Biden. That's a massive one for him. He's firmly in pole position now.

    Bloomberg and Warren will drop out after tonight.

    Sanders has one remaining shot and that's to obliterate Biden in a two-way debate, but it's a long shot.

    I think the nomination has been effectively been decided tonight.

    I'd agree with that. The danger signs were there for Bernie when he didn't have good momentum coming out of the first three states, he needed to put Biden and the other moderates away early.

    Looks like Democrats in a majority of states are voting on who is most likely to beat Trump, and whether they are right or wrong that choice increasingly looks like Biden.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,832 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    I'd agree with that. The danger signs were there for Bernie when he didn't have good momentum coming out of the first three states, he needed to put Biden and the other moderates away early.

    Looks like Democrats in a majority of states are voting on who is most likely to beat Trump, and whether they are right or wrong that choice increasingly looks like Biden.

    Bernie is Bernie's worst enemy.

    He had great momentum coming out of Nevada but doubled down on his anti-establishment firing up the base nonsense. He'd turned heads but you don't keep those who supported and voted for party leaders for years by throwing abuse at them. You welcome them in and make them feel comfortable.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,832 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    Bernie changing his mind again on whether a person with only a plurality of votes at the convention should be made the nominee

    giphy.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,245 ✭✭✭AllForIt


    Biden's speech was terrible. Quoting Irish poets :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,981 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Foxtrol wrote: »
    Bernie is Bernie's worst enemy.

    He had great momentum coming out of Nevada but doubled down on his anti-establishment firing up the base nonsense. He'd turned heads but you don't keep those who supported and voted for party leaders for years by throwing abuse at them. You welcome them in and make them feel comfortable.

    To an extent I agree with that as that absurd debate about Castro which he could not put to bed proved. However he simply was never going to be accepted by the Dem mainstream no matter if he had pivoted to the centre somewhat.

    Its loathsome what the Dems done, but credit where its due they were able to get Pete and Amy to step down on the eve which was a masterstroke while Warren ran interference for them.

    The Republicans in 2016 were not able to do the same with Trump as nobody in the party likes Cruz unlike Biden who is well liked and they don't have an Obama type figurehead who is popular across the board.

    Trump also to be fair won voters the pundits did not expect him to win,and from what I see so far I dunno if Bernie has really expanded his base from 2016 that much.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,170 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    There's one really good sign for Democrats tonight. Turnout is massive. Virginia has obliterated the 2008 figure comfortably.

    Well, sortof.

    Virginia is an Open Primary state. Any voter can vote in any Primary. There was no Republican primary in Virginia this year.

    In 2016, 1.8million Virginians voted in the primary, this year the figure is about 1.4 million.

    In 2008, just under a million voted in the Democrat primary, just under a half-million in the Republican primary. So overall State turnout in 2016 is lower than in 2008. The Democrat figure is higher, but this is easily explained by there not being any competition for the voter's attention. Bear in mind, the fact that it's an open primary also means that registered Republicans can vote in the Democratic Primary for whoever they would like to face off against Trump in the hope of getting someone beatable. It's known as "Raiding".


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,245 ✭✭✭AllForIt


    This is bad for Sanders. He's not taking California convincingly, the news agency's can't call it. Even if he wins it it's not looking good for him.

    Warren is out I suppose, I wonder who she'll give her support to.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,981 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    AllForIt wrote: »
    This is bad for Sanders. He's not taking California convincingly, the news agency's can't call it. Even if he wins it it's not looking good for him.

    Warren is out I suppose, I wonder who she'll give her support to.

    She is talking about next week which seems insane. Their is no path whatsoever for her right now and staying in does not reflect well on her.

    I think she sleeps on it and drops out in a day or two and endorses Bernie.

    I dunno if it will matter much, a lot of Warren supporters are glossy centerists and its got very heated between them last 2 weeks


  • Registered Users Posts: 22,132 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Warren should be ashamed of herself the way she is acting in this primary and in the 2016 primary.


  • Registered Users Posts: 26,283 ✭✭✭✭Eric Cartman


    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction

    Every state Bernie won has recreational cannabis legalised. I dont think thats a coincidence.


  • Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ Edison Clean Litter


    4 more years of Trump it is so.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭circadian


    I'm astounded Biden is doing so well. Every time I've seen him speak in the last few months it's been incoherent gibberish, like he's really struggling to string a sentence together.

    Maybe this is what it'll come down to, two incoherent old men taking digs at each other. We have reached Idiocracy, I await the campaign of Dwayne Elizondo Mountain-Dew Herbert Camacho in the coming decade.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,772 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Still a long way to go in this and imagine there'll be a few more twists, but it's pretty shocking to see that the DNC hasn't learned a damn thing since 2016, presumably relying on the general antipathy towards Trump to get the Presidential nod. Can't imagine the odds there are particularly strong, but Biden getting the nomination will undoubtedly rob a lot of momentum and goodwill - all over again. What energised younger voter, champing at the bit for nationalised health and fairer economic equality, is going to vote instead for Biden?

    That it has come down to two old men, hoping to dislodge another old man (despite Trump's best efforts to hide the fact), speaks volumes about the state of American politics - though it's ironic that the great socialist hope whose pulling in the younger voters would be the oldest president in history.

    I dunno, Joe Biden. Suppose to some it's "his time"? Not that any of the relatively younger candidates were barnstorming politicians themselves. The GOP attack dogs must be laughing.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,447 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Stick a fork in it. Bernie is done.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,340 ✭✭✭✭rossie1977


    Biden spent practically no money ($11,000 in advertising in Massachusetts and Virginia) and pretty much no time campaigning in any of the southern states (outside South Carolina), Minnesota, Virginia, Massachusetts or Maine and still ended up winning them all.

    For those saying he is another Clinton that in itself suggests he is isn't. Clinton spent a vast amount of money and struggled in the primary and general election in places she didn't campaign in over and over. Michael Bloomberg is the Hillary Clinton of this election cycle not Biden.

    Clinton was also hated by Sanders supporters and by Republicans and many independents after 20 years of attacks from Republicans and the media. 80%+ of media coverage of Clinton in 2016 was negative. In comparison nobody hates Biden to the extent Clinton was.

    Trump won in 16 because he went up against a candidate as deeply unpopular as he was. Even then it took Comey's email investigation a week prior to election to swing it towards Trump.

    If Bidens momentum carries into November places like North Carolina are in play while Maine, Minnesota, Virginia which Clinton struggled to hold onto should be guaranteed wins.


  • Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ Edison Clean Litter


    As Biden gets more airtime and exposure he'll bleed support. He struggles to string a sentence together. Yes, yes, I know, can say the same about Trump, but he gets a pass for some reason.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,775 ✭✭✭✭Gbear


    pixelburp wrote: »
    Still a long way to go in this and imagine there'll be a few more twists, but it's pretty shocking to see that the DNC hasn't learned a damn thing since 2016, presumably relying on the general antipathy towards Trump to get the Presidential nod. Can't imagine the odds there are particularly strong, but Biden getting the nomination will undoubtedly rob a lot of momentum and goodwill - all over again. What energised younger voter, champing at the bit for nationalised health and fairer economic equality, is going to vote instead for Biden?

    If it energised them so much, they probably should've turned out.

    Sanders seems to have the edge on Latino voters, and the generally poor turners out in the youth, but ultimately Biden has overwhelming support from Black voters and White voters as a whole, and that's almost everyone.

    I'm honestly not sure that Biden deserves the Black vote solely by virtue of having been there with Obama, but he has it and that's that.

    If you want to pick out one factor it'd be Warren's remaining in the race. It's far from a certainty that her votes would've all gone straight to Sanders, but he probably would've won a few more states, like Maine, Massachusesetts, and maybe even Minnesota and Texas in a pinch, or at least split the delegates pretty evenly with Biden. I don't really have any idea what her game is. Maybe Biden has offered her a cabinet position? Otherwise I can't really make much sense of it.

    The ways Biden is strong as a candidate, and not necessarily as a president, do make a decent case that he has a better case than Sanders. I think it's a bit of a toss up, without the benefit of hindsight.

    His mumbling and that sort of thing is good for a smear, but unlikely, I think, to be a factor in the elections (unless it turns out he actually has dementia, or something), his weirdness around people, especially young girls, rather pales into comparison with a guy who bragged about sexually assaulting women on more than one occasion, claimed to have spied on underage girls in beauty pagents, and has been credibly accused of being a multiple rapist, including of a 13 year old girl.

    I'm certainly concerned about the energy and bringing out turnout, especially among the youth vote (for whatever that counts for), but I don't think it's anything like the disaster that a, for example, Bloomburg, or Gabbard candidacy would be.
    To round out his candidacy with someone like Stace Abrams, or maybe even Elizabeth Warren, would, I think, broaden his appeal sufficiently.

    Ultimately, a lot of things went wrong for Clinton, and were poorly executed, and beyond her general unfavourability and the years of attacks she experienced, she had a poor ground game in the Rust Belt, she lacked the sort of relatability of Biden, and she had both coordinated (Manafort and Russia) and uncoordinated (Comey) misinformation campaigns directed against her.

    If Biden can avoid some or all of those, then he is in a much stronger position.
    It's worth remembering that Trump is possibly the weakest Republican incumbent in living memory. I don't know too much about George HW Bush but I would've thought that was Clinton being brilliant rather than him sucking as much as Trump does.

    Trump still has advantages of incumbency, a cultish base and a relatively strong economy, but if he wasn't such a disaster, this campaign would be a forgone conclusion in his favour. It isn't, because he's rubbish and a large majority of American's think so.


This discussion has been closed.
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